2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Hope For A New Era]

NV AZ is Trump's best chance to challenge

When even Jessica is less of a partisan hack than you...wow

[Asta]

Might be a hot take but I think the fact that white men are swinging against Trump so hard it basically will decide the election is the best evidence yet that sexism sunk Hillary above all.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/7/13/1870970/-It-s-not-just-Republicans-Hostile-sexism-is-skewing-the-Democratic-primary

"among the most sexist Democratic primary voters, Biden is preferred by as much as a four-to-one margin"

"[Kamala] Harris’s support drops from around 15 percent among the least sexist voters to less than 5 percent among those who are most sexist.”"

I have nothing against Warren or Harris, but if even Democrats are this sexist, I'm pessimistic about the prospect of having a female president anytime soon.

[SN2903]

NV AZ is Trump's best chance to challenge

When even Jessica is less of a partisan hack than you...wow

Cause I want votes to be verified? It was ok for dems to do this in 2000 though

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/johncardillo/status/1324909287127265281?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/JonEasley/status/1324907793862758404?s=20

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/johncardillo/status/1324909287127265281?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

Why are we posting Cardillo updates in here. Really?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JonEasley/status/1324907793862758404?s=20

They are *not* included in the current count.

[Hope For A New Era]

Might be a hot take but I think the fact that white men are swinging against Trump so hard it basically will decide the election is the best evidence yet that sexism sunk Hillary above all.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/7/13/1870970/-It-s-not-just-Republicans-Hostile-sexism-is-skewing-the-Democratic-primary

"among the most sexist Democratic primary voters, Biden is preferred by as much as a four-to-one margin"

"[Kamala] Harris’s support drops from around 15 percent among the least sexist voters to less than 5 percent among those who are most sexist.”"

I have nothing against Warren or Harris, because they weren't my first choice anyway, but if even Democrats are this sexist, I'm pessimistic about the prospect of having a female president anytime soon, if even Democrats are this sexist.

I'm not pessimistic. With "the right kind of candidate," you can break through that. I remember reading a story posted by someone on here about someone who was campaigning/polling/whatever for Obama in rural Pennsylvania in 2008. He went up to someone's door and asked who he was voting for, and the guy said something along the lines of "I'm voting for the n*****."

Play it right and you can get people to vote for a candidate in spite of all sorts of prejudices.

[BudgieForce]

Yeah, John Cardillo isnt reliable.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

So I've been looking at the Florida swing map on the New York Times. Almost everything looked as I would expect at this point: big swing R in South Florida, slight D swing on East/West coasts, small swings through central Florida, and then a good D swing near Jacksonville and a good R swing into the Tallahassee area.

What surprised me though is the 4-8 point swing towards Biden in the Florida panhandle. I know he lost by a ton anyway, but that doesn't seem like the sort of area that would be trending his way. Okaloosa County currently has the biggest pro-Biden swing in the state at 8.1%. Anyone have any ideas why that happened?

[Hammy]

NV AZ is Trump's best chance to challenge

When even Jessica is less of a partisan hack than you...wow

Cause I want votes to be verified? It was ok for dems to do this in 2000 though

Signed and legally cast ballots, in accordance with state law, =/= hanging chads. But Al Gore was also an idiot for not requesting a statewide recount which essentially undermined the validity of his challenge.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1324908213238640640?s=20

There are ~76.2K votes outside of Maricopa.

Of those, ~29.3K are from Apache, Pima, and Santa Cruz, which are blue county.  I am guessing that the vote count is split close to even.

That means that Trump is going to have to make up the difference from the ~46.9K left.

[Hope For A New Era]

So I've been looking at the Florida swing map on the New York Times. Almost everything looked as I would expect at this point: big swing R in South Florida, slight D swing on East/West coasts, small swings through central Florida, and then a good D swing near Jacksonville and a good R swing into the Tallahassee area.

What surprised me though is the 4-8 point swing towards Biden in the Florida panhandle. I know he lost by a ton anyway, but that doesn't seem like the sort of area that would be trending his way. Okaloosa County currently has the biggest pro-Biden swing in the state at 8.1%. Anyone have any ideas why that happened?

Black turnout maybe?

Or maybe new population/demographic change? I know the Panhandle is increasingly popular for tourism.

Edit: Okaloosa in particular was 6.29% third-party in 2016. Since it seems like Biden picked up most of the 2016 third-party vote, I imagine that played a role also. Trump actually underperformed Bush (2000 and 2004), McCain, and Romney in that county in 2016. I think we could put that county specifically down to the growth of Crestview?

Edit Edit: Okaloosa voted 67% D in 1924, 72% R in 1928, and 90% D in 1932. Wtf lol

[Ferguson97]

Ian Miles Cheong having a normal one

https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1324907255335063552

[Bootes Void]

So I've been looking at the Florida swing map on the New York Times. Almost everything looked as I would expect at this point: big swing R in South Florida, slight D swing on East/West coasts, small swings through central Florida, and then a good D swing near Jacksonville and a good R swing into the Tallahassee area.

What surprised me though is the 4-8 point swing towards Biden in the Florida panhandle. I know he lost by a ton anyway, but that doesn't seem like the sort of area that would be trending his way. Okaloosa County currently has the biggest pro-Biden swing in the state at 8.1%. Anyone have any ideas why that happened?

military?, Veterans?i know 1st district in florida had the most veterans of any district in america

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

[SN2903]

GA and AZ can still flip

[Ferguson97]

GA and AZ can still flip

Cope

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/JonEasley/status/1324907793862758404?s=20

They are *not* included in the current count.

I've looked all over twitter and can't find anyone else reporting this.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/JonEasley/status/1324907793862758404?s=20

They are *not* included in the current count.

https://twitter.com/johnkruzel/status/1324912461825380362?s=20

[GeorgiaModerate]

So I've been looking at the Florida swing map on the New York Times. Almost everything looked as I would expect at this point: big swing R in South Florida, slight D swing on East/West coasts, small swings through central Florida, and then a good D swing near Jacksonville and a good R swing into the Tallahassee area.

What surprised me though is the 4-8 point swing towards Biden in the Florida panhandle. I know he lost by a ton anyway, but that doesn't seem like the sort of area that would be trending his way. Okaloosa County currently has the biggest pro-Biden swing in the state at 8.1%. Anyone have any ideas why that happened?

military?, Veterans?i know 1st district in florida had the most veterans of any district in america

Okaloosa has Eglin AFB, a very large base.

[brucejoel99]

Ian Miles Cheong having a normal one

https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1324907255335063552

I wanna know if he'll be just as angry in 4-5 decades if conservative politicians have ACB statuettes on their bookshelves.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JonEasley/status/1324907793862758404?s=20

They are *not* included in the current count.

I've looked all over twitter and can't find anyone else reporting this.

Like take Montco, I know for a fact they haven't reported them bc it says right on their website that they are taking all ballots post-8pm on Tuesday and setting them aside, counting them, but reporting them at another unspecified time

[philly09]

Well now.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324913964254457858

[GP270watch]

So I've been looking at the Florida swing map on the New York Times. Almost everything looked as I would expect at this point: big swing R in South Florida, slight D swing on East/West coasts, small swings through central Florida, and then a good D swing near Jacksonville and a good R swing into the Tallahassee area.

What surprised me though is the 4-8 point swing towards Biden in the Florida panhandle. I know he lost by a ton anyway, but that doesn't seem like the sort of area that would be trending his way. Okaloosa County currently has the biggest pro-Biden swing in the state at 8.1%. Anyone have any ideas why that happened?

Military?

Elgin AFB is in Okaloosa.