2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Progressive Pessimist]

So in regards to those Georgia military ballots...

https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1324868110529277958?s=19

Republicans, like Roy Moore and Rick Saccone, always think that absentee and military ballots are going to save them from close results, but that never seems to be the case. That trend is occuring again here it seems.

[Rand]

So in regards to those Georgia military ballots...

https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1324868110529277958?s=19

Trump is not as popular among servicemembers as people think AND a lot of us don’t vote because of the hassle associated with requesting and returning military absentee ballots.

[pppolitics]

So in regards to those Georgia military ballots...

https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1324868110529277958?s=19

Trump blowing off Russia offering bounties for American troops came back to bite him in the ###.

[GeorgiaModerate]

One thing we haven't acknowledged enough--how good The Needle is. It picked up on FL, GA, and NC like an hour into election night. Whatever algorithm they're feeding it works.

Yeah the Georgia needle was weird though because it pointed overwhelmingly to a Trump victory before jerking back, after some adjustment was made to the data?

That happened because of interstate correlation.  There wasn't much GA data available yet, and they already knew FL looked good and NC was at least decent for Trump.  And if FL and NC were good for Trump, it was reasonable to infer that GA would be too in the absence of data.  But it turned out that FL was the outlier in this election.

[T'Chenka]

So is Biden gonna speak?

[Pyro]

Hoping this is still true...

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1307491919384260609

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hey we just counted
And this is crazy
Joe's clearly winning
So call me maybe

it really looks like
they are crazy
they have the numbers
but won't call me baby

[philly09]

Biden won't take FL, but it appears that the margin is shrinking right now.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So in regards to those Georgia military ballots...

https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1324868110529277958?s=19

Republicans, like Roy Moore and Rick Saccone, always think that absentee and military ballots are going to save them from close results, but that never seems to be the case. That trend is occuring again here it seems.

People tend to overestimate how many military ballots there are. They're really only the absolute last resort for a trailing candidate. 

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JGrayJets/status/1324877458773057536

[Middle-aged Europe]

Fox News just reported that if the networks call the race by 10 PM EST, then victory speeches outdoors at 11:30 PM EST. If no call by 10, then just a brief Biden statement indoors.

If true, kind of smart of Biden. If the networks want to air an actual victory speech (=better ratings) now they have to call it.

[wbrocks67]

There was much talk of PA finished counting mail in ballots bu that's not true. Philly had 40K left, 15-20K were provisionals but 23K were regular mail-ins. They counted ~3K in that last update about an hour ago, so Philly still has at least 20K regular mail-ins to count.

Bucks still has 7K regular mail-ins to count, and it looks like at least 30K of the Allegheny ones that they just started counting are regular mail-ins, they were just ones that had to be reissued. But they would've been in original batch of regular mail-ins.

That's 60K right there, out of the 100K. Would go for Biden most likely like 50-10 or 48-12, which would give Biden over 50K lead statewide. Trump couldn't come back from that.

[Rep Jessica]

So in regards to those Georgia military ballots...

https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1324868110529277958?s=19

Trump is not as popular among servicemembers as people think AND a lot of us don’t vote because of the hassle associated with requesting and returning military absentee ballots.

Their job is war and Trump did more to end war then any president of the past 80 years.

[7,052,770]

So is Biden gonna speak?

If the networks would quit being scared of Trump rioters and call the outstanding states, sure.

[wbrocks67]

Also, given that Trump has been slowing down in the AZ count, can't imagine how he comes back from 36K down right now, especially if he only nets like 4 or 5K again from Maricopa.

[GeneralMacArthur]

So tonight's programming is:

AZ drop at 9 PM

Networks potentially making the AZ+NV call between 9-10 PM

Biden speech at 1130 PM

is that right?

And it looks like nobody's ever going to call Georgia because they're too afraid of military ballots?

[FrancoAgo]

I understand because others don't call Nevada*, but why not DDHQ?

* as not declare the winner

[MR DARK BRANDON]

CNN RN; Biden is gonna win but we won’t say it

[Inmate Trump]

So in regards to those Georgia military ballots...

https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1324868110529277958?s=19

Trump is not as popular among servicemembers as people think AND a lot of us don’t vote because of the hassle associated with requesting and returning military absentee ballots.

Their job is war and Trump did more to end war then any president of the past 80 years.

Umm...no.

[wbrocks67]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't PA counties already doing that? Also, it's my understanding that no post-11/3 ballots have actually been counted so Biden's current lead in the state is built off of ballots cast by poll closing time on 11/3.

https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1324876272858767365

Yes that is correct. There are no post-11/3 votes in the count yet. Counties that have counted them have purposely set them aside and not included them in current totals. Also, apparently the post 11/3 ballots are negligible.

[wbrocks67]

Are we getting another NV update tonight?

[Badger]

Hearing a report that the Biden campaign actually requested that networks not call any remaining state until his lead is above 0.5%.

Link?

Hearing a report that the Biden campaign actually requested that networks not call any remaining state until his lead is above 0.5%.

Need a link for this BS.

General social media/Reddit chatter so take it with the applicable amount of salt. Kind of makes sense though, the Biden campaign would want a firm lead and not appearing like the media is trying to cover for them or something.  But who knows.

PA might actually be waiting until it's mathematically impossible for Trump to take the lead again. Nate Silver already demolished the nonsense about the provisionals.

I don't buy it. The Biden campaign has a vested political interest in shut this down and being declared the winner as soon as possible. If they had any influence whatsoever they would prefer to have the race called for them at 9 p.m. as opposed to 8:59, whether they were up in any given state by 0.5% or 5 votes.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/johnkruzel/status/1324879933710233600?s=20

[wbrocks67]

this is actually getting atrocious.  there is no excuse for places like Nevada to not count more timely.  and really there's no excuse to not call Nevada at this point.

yeah the fact that all NV could do is count like 8K votes all day... come on man

[brucejoel99]

Are we getting another NV update tonight?

IIRC the last one was the last one promised for today.