2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Ancestral Republican]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324750555059728384?s=19

Morass my ass.

Hence the quotation marks.

Do you know anyone at Penn dumber than Trump, or is his reputation as the worst student in school history accurate?

[mark_twain]

I can already start to see it. This morning, the Trump campaign complained that Fox News and AP made a bad call for AZ (understandably so), but Fox News still hasn't retracted their call of AZ for Biden.

This is a chance for Fox News to make the first salvo and break away from Trump. Once AZ is called for Biden by the other media outlets, Fox News will stand by their earlier call and take credit for being the first to make the call.

A rift in the Republican Party has begun, and it looks like it will only get bigger and bigger...

I doubt this will be the catalyst, but I definitely agree with your last statement and I think that people are underestimating the intensity of the identity crisis the post-Trump GOP will undergo.

I hadn't seen this when I made my last post, but if the Democrats split apart between the 'progressives' and the liberals, that could easily provide the room for the sane Republicans to split from the Trump Republicans.

I don't think this will happen because the U.S seems to have too many thinks built up to maintain the two party system, but I think it's slightly more than a zero possibility.

The rift is not so so much creating a new political party, but forming a new faction within the Republican party to gain control of their direction in the next 4 years.

We all know Biden will be the next president, but 2024 is still a big question mark, especially considering that Biden will be 82, and Kamala will be following in the footsteps of Hillary Clinton if she decides to run for President.

So the Republicans will be eager to take this opportunity of winning back the White House in 2024. But they need to have direction first, and they need to have it fast.

[compucomp]

LOL at all the love for McCain. Dems are now the party of Reagan/Bush.

Ah yes, because Reagan/Bush would've supported a $15 minimum wage, the repeal of right-to-work laws, investment into renewable energy, decriminalized weed, a public option, high-speed rail, a carbon tax, universal pre-K, free community college & trade school, & publicly-funded elections.

It almost makes too much sense!

Will any of that happen in the next four years?

Unfortunately unlikely, given that a Republican Senate looks more likely than not at this point (c'mon Georgia!!), but that doesn't change the fact that the claim that the "Dems are now the party of Reagan/Bush" is a bunch of malarkey, plain & simple.

I agree with you, but there's a definite argument to be made that the embrace of the Lincoln project stuff may have costed Democrat seats downballot. It should have been an election about the toxic and repulsive Republican Party as a whole, not just about Trump. There were apparently a bunch of people (in Maine) who thought it was a-ok their senator continued voting for rapists on the Supreme Court and for uber wealthy tax giveaways as long as Blumpf got tossed.

Yes, but based on the current results, Joe may well have lost if he ran that kind of campaign, since it wouldn't gain Joe any voters and cause partisanship to trigger for some suburban moderate Republicans who are disgusted with Trump and were ready to vote for Biden, until he bashed Republicans in general. I think he'd likely lose AZ and GA. He could also lose PA and WI, as the biggest swings against Trump came in the Philadelphia suburbs and WOW counties.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324752659996397575

[GP270watch]

I feel 100% relief with the Nevada and Arizona vote drops.

 We are going to at least have a sane person running all federal agencies. If Democrats go for broke we could win at least one of the Georgia Senate seats but it will take historic turnout.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Business Insider has called the election for Biden.

https://www.businessinsider.com/2020-election-results

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324748146258313216

[Ancestral Republican]

LOL at all the love for McCain. Dems are now the party of Reagan/Bush.

Ah yes, because Reagan/Bush would've supported a $15 minimum wage, the repeal of right-to-work laws, investment into renewable energy, decriminalized weed, a public option, high-speed rail, a carbon tax, universal pre-K, free community college & trade school, & publicly-funded elections.

It almost makes too much sense!

Will any of that happen in the next four years?

Unfortunately unlikely, given that a Republican Senate looks more likely than not at this point (c'mon Georgia!!), but that doesn't change the fact that the claim that the "Dems are now the party of Reagan/Bush" is a bunch of malarkey, plain & simple.

I agree with you, but there's a definite argument to be made that the embrace of the Lincoln project stuff may have costed Democrat seats downballot. It should have been an election about the toxic and repulsive Republican Party as a whole, not just about Trump. There were apparently a bunch of people (in Maine) who thought it was a-ok their senator continued voting for rapists on the Supreme Court and for uber wealthy tax giveaways as long as Blumpf got tossed.

Yes, but based on the current results, Joe may well have lost if he ran that kind of campaign, since it wouldn't gain Joe any voters and cause partisanship to trigger for some suburban moderate Republicans who are disgusted with Trump and were ready to vote for Biden, until he bashed Republicans in general. I think he'd likely lose AZ and GA. He could also lose PA and WI, as the biggest swings against Trump came in the Philadelphia suburbs and WOW counties.

I don't know if that's really true or not. The tightness of the election may have been caused by the inability of the party to reach out and establish their message and brand. If that's the case, they may have done worse, not better, than they could have.

[Benjamin Frank]

I can already start to see it. This morning, the Trump campaign complained that Fox News and AP made a bad call for AZ (understandably so), but Fox News still hasn't retracted their call of AZ for Biden.

This is a chance for Fox News to make the first salvo and break away from Trump. Once AZ is called for Biden by the other media outlets, Fox News will stand by their earlier call and take credit for being the first to make the call.

A rift in the Republican Party has begun, and it looks like it will only get bigger and bigger...

I doubt this will be the catalyst, but I definitely agree with your last statement and I think that people are underestimating the intensity of the identity crisis the post-Trump GOP will undergo.

I hadn't seen this when I made my last post, but if the Democrats split apart between the 'progressives' and the liberals, that could easily provide the room for the sane Republicans to split from the Trump Republicans.

I don't think this will happen because the U.S seems to have too many thinks built up to maintain the two party system, but I think it's slightly more than a zero possibility.

The rift is not so so much creating a new political party, but forming a new faction within the Republican party to gain control of their direction in the next 4 years.

We all know Biden will be the next president, but 2024 is still a big question mark, especially considering that Biden will be 82, and Kamala will be following in the footsteps of Hillary Clinton if she decides to run for President.

So the Republicans will be eager to take this opportunity of winning back the White House in 2024. But they need to have direction first, and they need to have it fast.

From an economics perspective, there should be a 'progressive' party that argues Post Keynesian economics, a liberal party that argues neo classical economics and a conservative party that argues monetarist economics.  In addition there would be a Trump party that argues whatever his economic views are.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Business Insider has called the election for Biden.

https://www.businessinsider.com/2020-election-results

Hopefully that sets the avalanche finally in motion.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324752659996397575

[Torie]

Biden should be up by around 4000 votes after the next dump of Gwinnett County votes this morning.

3,500 are out in Gwinnett. Biden is ahead there by 17.9%. Biden's existing lead is 1,579.

(3,500 x.179) + 1,579 = 627 + 1,579 = 2,206. Then the military ballots and some provisionals and what not.

If Biden wins GA it will be the tipping point state. If not, and Biden holds AZ, AZ will be the tipping point state. If not, then it will be Wisconsin probably, although it could be PA. It will not be NV almost certainly.

[HillGoose]

LOL at all the love for McCain. Dems are now the party of Reagan/Bush.

Indeen.  The first line in Mark Kelly's election night speech was that he'd be a senator "like John McCain."

Is that what Democrats want in 2020, lol?  I mean, I guess it may be the best you can get in Arizona, but it certainly doesn't sound like Kelly will be a reliable vote for Schumer on big issues.

The DINOs in the Senate will be Manchin, Sinema and Kelly 

John McCain wanted to do what is the right thing in his mind, regardless of the party.

I didn't agree with many of his positions, but I respected him.

Then you have been fooled.  McCain was a Grade A a[inks]hole who shilled for the MIC and was a reliable vote for American Empire during his 30+ years in Washington.  Moreover, in one of the most consequential decisions of his entire political career he chose to elevate friggin' Sarah Palin to Republican stardom, and I'd argue you can draw a pretty direct line from Palin --> Trump through the "birther" movement

The reason you "respect" McCain is because he's notorious for being a media manipulator.   

I ❤️ the MIC

[Figueira]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324748146258313216

For a second I thought this was Santa Cruz County, California, and I was really confused.

[politics_king]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324748787156459521?s=20

I just woke up to wonderful news everyone, Joe Biden will be our 46th President of the United States and Kamala Harris will be the first woman ever elected as Vice President of the United States. Now off to Georgia to win those 2 Senate Seats and control of the Senate! Let's go!

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Biden should be up by around 4000 votes after the next dump of Gwinnett County votes this morning.

3,500 are out in Gwinnett. Biden is ahead there by 17.9%. Biden's existing lead is 1,579.

(3,500 x.179) + 1,579 = 627 + 1,579 = 2,206. Then the military ballots and some provisionals and what not.

Except if Biden won the counted vote in Gwinnett buy 17.9%, he should win the remaining VBM ballots by way more than 17.9%.  Probably by at least 40%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden should be up by around 4000 votes after the next dump of Gwinnett County votes this morning.

3,500 are out in Gwinnett. Biden is ahead there by 17.9%. Biden's existing lead is 1,579.

(3,500 x.179) + 1,579 = 627 + 1,579 = 2,206. Then the military ballots and some provisionals and what not.

Biden is doing better in mail ballots than in overall performance, though.  I'd expect him to get at least 70-75% of Gwinnett's absentees.  If he gets 75% then he gains about 1750 (2625-875).

[Roll Roons]

Biden should be up by around 4000 votes after the next dump of Gwinnett County votes this morning.

3,500 are out in Gwinnett. Biden is ahead there by 17.9%. Biden's existing lead is 1,579.

(3,500 x.179) + 1,579 = 627 + 1,579 = 2,206. Then the military ballots and some provisionals and what not.

Biden is doing better in mail ballots than in overall performance, though.  I'd expect him to get at least 70-75% of Gwinnett's absentees.  If he gets 75% then he gains about 1750 (2625-875).

So is it also safe to assume GA-07 will be a D pickup?

[ProudModerate2]

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden should be up by around 4000 votes after the next dump of Gwinnett County votes this morning.

3,500 are out in Gwinnett. Biden is ahead there by 17.9%. Biden's existing lead is 1,579.

(3,500 x.179) + 1,579 = 627 + 1,579 = 2,206. Then the military ballots and some provisionals and what not.

Biden is doing better in mail ballots than in overall performance, though.  I'd expect him to get at least 70-75% of Gwinnett's absentees.  If he gets 75% then he gains about 1750 (2625-875).

So is it also safe to assume GA-07 will be a D pickup?

Without doubt.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324750555059728384?s=19

Morass my ass.

Hence the quotation marks.

Do you know anyone at Penn dumber than Trump, or is his reputation as the worst student in school history accurate?

I mean, they let me in so...I may give him some competition in that regard.  

Seriously though, obviously can't say for sure, but NOBODY here is proud that he's an alum.  Not even the College Republicans.  

[Ancestral Republican]

I can already start to see it. This morning, the Trump campaign complained that Fox News and AP made a bad call for AZ (understandably so), but Fox News still hasn't retracted their call of AZ for Biden.

This is a chance for Fox News to make the first salvo and break away from Trump. Once AZ is called for Biden by the other media outlets, Fox News will stand by their earlier call and take credit for being the first to make the call.

A rift in the Republican Party has begun, and it looks like it will only get bigger and bigger...

I doubt this will be the catalyst, but I definitely agree with your last statement and I think that people are underestimating the intensity of the identity crisis the post-Trump GOP will undergo.

I hadn't seen this when I made my last post, but if the Democrats split apart between the 'progressives' and the liberals, that could easily provide the room for the sane Republicans to split from the Trump Republicans.

I don't think this will happen because the U.S seems to have too many thinks built up to maintain the two party system, but I think it's slightly more than a zero possibility.

The rift is not so so much creating a new political party, but forming a new faction within the Republican party to gain control of their direction in the next 4 years.

We all know Biden will be the next president, but 2024 is still a big question mark, especially considering that Biden will be 82, and Kamala will be following in the footsteps of Hillary Clinton if she decides to run for President.

So the Republicans will be eager to take this opportunity of winning back the White House in 2024. But they need to have direction first, and they need to have it fast.

From an economics perspective, their should be a 'progressive' party that argues Post Keynesian economics, a liberal party that argues neo classical economics and a conservative party that argues monetarist economics.  In addition there would be a Trump party that argues whatever his economic views are.

There will never be more than two consistently competitive parties in America. Third parties either quickly collapse after one candidate's campaign, stay irrelevant spoilers forever like the Lolberts and Greens, or become one of the two largest parties, which is how the Republicans came to power.

[mark_twain]

I can already start to see it. This morning, the Trump campaign complained that Fox News and AP made a bad call for AZ (understandably so), but Fox News still hasn't retracted their call of AZ for Biden.

This is a chance for Fox News to make the first salvo and break away from Trump. Once AZ is called for Biden by the other media outlets, Fox News will stand by their earlier call and take credit for being the first to make the call.

A rift in the Republican Party has begun, and it looks like it will only get bigger and bigger...

I doubt this will be the catalyst, but I definitely agree with your last statement and I think that people are underestimating the intensity of the identity crisis the post-Trump GOP will undergo.

I hadn't seen this when I made my last post, but if the Democrats split apart between the 'progressives' and the liberals, that could easily provide the room for the sane Republicans to split from the Trump Republicans.

I don't think this will happen because the U.S seems to have too many thinks built up to maintain the two party system, but I think it's slightly more than a zero possibility.

The rift is not so so much creating a new political party, but forming a new faction within the Republican party to gain control of their direction in the next 4 years.

We all know Biden will be the next president, but 2024 is still a big question mark, especially considering that Biden will be 82, and Kamala will be following in the footsteps of Hillary Clinton if she decides to run for President.

So the Republicans will be eager to take this opportunity of winning back the White House in 2024. But they need to have direction first, and they need to have it fast.

From an economics perspective, their should be a 'progressive' party that argues Post Keynesian economics, a liberal party that argues neo classical economics and a conservative party that argues monetarist economics.  In addition there would be a Trump party that argues whatever his economic views are.

Ideally, that would be good, in the interest of making many different political viewpoints available to be voted on.

But in practice, it doesn't happen. Think of it as a single-elimination tournament. In the semi-finals, the stronger player usually prevails and makes it to the finals. In the finals, the stronger player usually prevails and becomes the champion.

Applying this analogy to American politics (or politics in other countries, for that matter), the stronger factions within each party gain control of the direction of their party (the semi-finals), and the stronger party gains control of the direction of the government (the finals).

For some countries, like China, there is not even a finals, because the one player in the game is so dominant that other players cannot reasonably challenge him.

[BlueSwan]

I’m inspired. I’m gonna do a song entitled “Blue Georgia”.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Are we still expecting more Nevada returns very soon?