2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[lfromnj]

Hot take: Those riots in Kenosha and Philly almost cost Biden the election.

I'll wait for the final Philly numbers and lower Bucks and Delaware.
Woke whites have a negative self perception so riots for them might actually make them vote more left wing as in Minneapolis.

Is it possible that BLM helped in Minnesota (and maybe Georgia) and hurt in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania due to the different white/middle-class cultures in the suburban areas of those states?

WOW still swung D and Philly burbs seems like they will, I will wait for actual results within Bucks and Delaware and the actual city to see what happened.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/BoKnowsNews/status/1324764594917773315

Victory speech?

[randomusername]

Gingerich spinning and refusing to answer Baier's question.

[Bumaye]

So Trump is likely going to lose Georgia by like 2-4k votes and Georgia has 8.5k Covid deaths. With the higher median age of Trump voters and the unwillingness of his bubble to comply to stay at home orders, masks, etc. it is at least possible that Trump lost Georgia to Covid.

[Omega21]

Yeah, I personally think Biden will win a narrow victory in the EC (290 EVs for Biden); while winning the Popular vote by around 5-6 points (which would be a polling error of about 2-3 points in favour of Trump, which is reasonable). However this is less so because of Biden racking up votes in safe states and more by him narrowly losing tons of swing states. My predictions in the swing states would be:

Arizona: Biden 49-47
Florida: Trump 49.5-49
Georgia: Trump 50-49
Iowa: Trump 50-47
Michigan: Biden 52-46
Nevada: Biden 52-45
North Carolina: Trump 49.5-49
Ohio: Trump 50-47
Pennsylvania: Biden 50-47
Texas: Trump 50-48
Wisconsin: Biden 52-46

So while my prediction is relatively narrow victory for Biden, it still hides 2 things:

1) Any minor mistake in my prediction, in favour of Biden, means he wins a landslide. He would be narrowly missing victory in almost all of the swing states. Note all the Trump+0 to Trump+2 victories I am giving to Trump

2) Biden is still ahead by 3 points in the decisive state (Pennsylvania). So he still wins relatively comfortably where it matters.

Seems like a very realistic unemotional prediction. Refreshing to see on Atlas these days.

No, what's unrealistic and emotional is assuming the polls are gonna be off across the board in Trump's favor because reasons. And that he will just barely end up narrowly scraping by in almost all swing states as a result because reasons. There is no real logical reason to assume this.

Friendly reminder this FF Euro Poster (and me as well) got crapped on for this prediction lol

The only thing he is likely (but not 100%) is going to miss is Georgia.

That being said, congrats to Biden and his supporters for largest-ever turnout and support. The people have spoken, and Trump needs to take the loss like a man and not make a fool out of himself and potentially damage the core fibres of democracy in the process.

I think we are all better off now that the poll hype bubbles have been burst 2 times in a row. I hope it results in more unemotional critical thinking that doesn't just take poll numbers into consideration the next time we have an election.

[Holmes]

The Utah AG should honestly resign iif he wants to help Trump so bad.

[Flo 2.0]

is that a 306-232 election map uno reverse repeat I'm smelling?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stevethomma/status/1324761733303541760

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Donald Trump -

[ProgressiveModerate]

is that a 306-232 election map uno reverse repeat I'm smelling?

Also; what's funny is WI may be the tipping point state again, and be decided by 0.8%

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Ok why did Georgia just report only 1 vote?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

So Trump is likely going to lose Georgia by like 2-4k votes and Georgia has 8.5k Covid deaths. With the higher median age of Trump voters and the unwillingness of his bubble to comply to stay at home orders, masks, etc. it is at least possible that Trump lost Georgia to Covid.

Haven’t most covid deaths been black and Hispanic people?

[Holmes]

Ok why did Georgia just report only 1 vote?

All votes matter.

[Bojack Horseman]

Okay, now's as good a time as any.

I apologise for my dooming earlier completely. In high-stress situations, I tend to devolve into instantly believing the worst-case scenario is a certainty. For those unfamiliar, this is called catastrophising. It's something I am trying to work on. As of a few hours ago, I have been discharged from hospital and am back home in my own bed.

Glad you’re okay. This is also why I’m granting a blanket pardon to everyone on my ignore list except SN.

[Omega21]

Ok why did Georgia just report only 1 vote?

Poll worker sleepy. Poll worker need rest.

[Bumaye]

Ok why did Georgia just report only 1 vote?

EVERY VOTE COUNTS!

[Brittain33]

It’s more likely BLM saved Biden in Wisconsin and Georgia and gave him a wider edge in Pennsylvania and Michigan than costing him in any of those states. Black turnout was through the roof and suburbs in those states don’t show much backlash.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Ok why did Georgia just report only 1 vote?

Poll worker sleepy. Poll worker need rest.

Aw, my childhood...

[lfromnj]

It’s more likely BLM saved Biden in Wisconsin and Georgia and gave him a wider edge in Pennsylvania and Michigan than costing him in any of those states. Black turnout was through the roof and suburbs in those states don’t show much backlash.

Black turnout was not through the roof. BIDEN lost net votes in the black areas of Milwaukee . Milwaukee swung D because of the suburbs and white libs.
Kenosha swung a bit R even.
Blm did not help Democrats among Midwestern blacks, will have to see the South though.

[VBM]

CALL THE ELECTION!

[forsythvoter]

It’s more likely BLM saved Biden in Wisconsin and Georgia and gave him a wider edge in Pennsylvania and Michigan than costing him in any of those states. Black turnout was through the roof and suburbs in those states don’t show much backlash.

Black turnout was not through the roof. BIDEN lost net votes in the black areas of Milwaukee .
Kenosha swung a bit R even.

Think black turnout / enthusiasm for Biden varied by state. It was clearly up in GA, looking at the vote counts in Fulton, Dekalb and Clayton and Rockdale counties and probably helped tip the state to Biden.

[lfromnj]

It’s more likely BLM saved Biden in Wisconsin and Georgia and gave him a wider edge in Pennsylvania and Michigan than costing him in any of those states. Black turnout was through the roof and suburbs in those states don’t show much backlash.

Black turnout was not through the roof. BIDEN lost net votes in the black areas of Milwaukee .
Kenosha swung a bit R even.

Think black turnout / enthusiasm for Biden varied by state. It was clearly up in GA, looking at the vote counts in Fulton, Dekalb and Clayton and Rockdale counties and probably helped tip the state to Biden.

So far in Detroit trump has netted 6k votes from 2016 fwiw and most of that was gaining votes.  Biden lost 1k.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1322944866377150465

Epic fail.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Is it just me or is it feeling more and more like they're planning a big showy rollout of President-elect Biden during prime time tonight?

[European Lefty]

It’s more likely BLM saved Biden in Wisconsin and Georgia and gave him a wider edge in Pennsylvania and Michigan than costing him in any of those states. Black turnout was through the roof and suburbs in those states don’t show much backlash.

Black turnout was not through the roof. BIDEN lost net votes in the black areas of Milwaukee .
Kenosha swung a bit R even.

Think black turnout / enthusiasm for Biden varied by state. It was clearly up in GA, looking at the vote counts in Fulton, Dekalb and Clayton and Rockdale counties and probably helped tip the state to Biden.

So far in Detroit trump has netted 6k votes from 2016 fwiw and most of that was gaining votes.  Biden lost 1k.

Isn't Wayne County still counting though? I'd have thought Biden's increase will easily surpass Trump's when all the votes are counted