2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[charcuterie]

I thought PA would be the call but if AZ looks really good for Biden and then NV gets called after the next dump...

[GeorgiaModerate]

I hope the new AZ numbers seal the deal for Biden, we're on Day 4 and we all know what's going to happen, I just want to get it over with...

I was assuming that they were waiting an official Biden lead in PA to call. Now that that's up I have no idea what they are doing

Probably waiting until PA is outside the recount margin (0.5%) to call it.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

GA Sos: 4K+ absentees left, 3500 from Gwinnett.

Absentee, Americans overseas, are usually heavily Dem? But military ballots may be more R-leaning. It will be very tight.

They should only be military votes that arrived after Tuesday. pre-election day military votes were counted already with the rest of the mail-in ballots. This was shared earlier in the thread and I can't find it anymore, unfortunately, but I think it was from someone credible.

That was me who shared it.  Yeah, the word is that the military ballots aren't all arriving as one big drop.  Rather, these will primarily be the late batch, so they may be few in number.  

[DaleCooper]

PredictIt suddenly got very bullish on Biden and his margin of victory in Arizona, for what it's worth. They almost always skew right so when they bounce left it always catches my attention.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I hope the new AZ numbers seal the deal for Biden, we're on Day 4 and we all know what's going to happen, I just want to get it over with...

I was assuming that they were waiting an official Biden lead in PA to call. Now that that's up I have no idea what they are doing

Probably waiting until PA is outside the recount margin (0.5%) to call it.

Probably, but nightmare scenario is they prioritize ratings uber alles and drag us into next week because of magical phantom ballots that could conceivably help Trump or something.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

By the way ...
What happened to our blue-avatar friends that were so enthusiastic about consistently posting in this thread yesterday?

Jessica
SirWood
SN
Buzz
7sergi9

Who else am I missing?

Tbf, Buzz has been a pretty fantastic poster this cycle (just Trumpy) and Sergi has had a good sense of humor in this thread.  

[Hnv1]

The AP should call PA and NV. come on.

[Badger]

By the way ...
What happened to our blue-avatar friends that were so enthusiastic about consistently posting in this thread yesterday?

Jessica
SirWood
SN
Buzz
7sergi9

Who else am I missing?

Ljube and that secular globalist dude.

[cp]

By the way ...
What happened to our blue-avatar friends that were so enthusiastic about consistently posting in this thread yesterday?

Jessica
SirWood
SN
Buzz
7sergi9

Who else am I missing?

JK Rowling (aka Party Adviser)

[DaleCooper]

GA Sos: 4K+ absentees left, 3500 from Gwinnett.

Absentee, Americans overseas, are usually heavily Dem? But military ballots may be more R-leaning. It will be very tight.

They should only be military votes that arrived after Tuesday. pre-election day military votes were counted already with the rest of the mail-in ballots. This was shared earlier in the thread and I can't find it anymore, unfortunately, but I think it was from someone credible.

That was me who shared it.  Yeah, the word is that the military ballots aren't all arriving as one big drop.  Rather, these will primarily be the late batch, so they may be few in number.  

I would imagine the number of military ballots that were mailed in after Tuesday is small enough to not allow either candidate to net many votes from, even if they perform better than expected.

[pppolitics]

GA Sos: 4K+ absentees left, 3500 from Gwinnett.

Absentee, Americans overseas, are usually heavily Dem? But military ballots may be more R-leaning. It will be very tight.

They should only be military votes that arrived after Tuesday. pre-election day military votes were counted already with the rest of the mail-in ballots. This was shared earlier in the thread and I can't find it anymore, unfortunately, but I think it was from someone credible.

That was me who shared it.  Yeah, the word is that the military ballots aren't all arriving as one big drop.  Rather, these will primarily be the late batch, so they may be few in number.  

Soldiers probably doesn't even like Trump.

Russian put bounties on US troops and Trump blew it off.

[Omega21]

By the way ...
What happened to our blue-avatar friends that were so enthusiastic about consistently posting in this thread yesterday?

Jessica
SirWood
SN
Buzz
7sergi9

Who else am I missing?

Buzz congratulated Biden already last night and Jesica said something along the lines of Trump is insane if he doesn't respect the democratic will of the people

Most people already know the outcome already I assume

[Tender Branson]

Maricopa County, AZ will have 2 major vote dumps today.

One in 2 minutes, the other at 7pm local time.

Maybe 50k in each.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Maricopa County, AZ will have 2 major vote dumps today.

One in 2 minutes, the other at 7pm local time.

Maybe 50k in each.

Do we think these will be favorable to Tipirneni?

[CityByTheValley]

Overall, fantastic performance in the suburbs with historic margins in places like Douglas, Delaware, Hamilton, Collin, and Placer. Concerning is the performance in places like Muskegon, Mahoning, Lorain, as well as Zapata and Scotland which actually FLIPPED from Clinton to Trump. A decisive tradeoff but one that doesn't have a clear outcome just yet.

[ProgressiveModerate]

By the way ...
What happened to our blue-avatar friends that were so enthusiastic about consistently posting in this thread yesterday?

Jessica
SirWood
SN
Buzz
7sergi9

Who else am I missing?

Tbf, Buzz has been a pretty fantastic poster this cycle (just Trumpy) and Sergi has had a good sense of humor in this thread.  

Yeah Buzz is fine, and seems like a very reasonable person even if I disagree with him on some political stuff. Throwing him onto the same list as SN and Woodbury definately isn't a fair thing to do. Jessica has also become a pretty good and reasonable poster too

[Badger]

Please, for the mental health of our country will they just please call this election before the weekend. If we don't get a general consensus of course - - by the close of business this is going to be interminable.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My guess is the next Maricopa drop will skew Trump but only by mid or low double digits

[Crumpets]

Chuck Todd says NBC may call Pennsylvania today and that they are at "over 90% confidence of a Biden win, but we're waiting for at least 99.5%."

EDIT: I originally wrote 95% for the last number. He actually said 99.5%.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

By the way ...
What happened to our blue-avatar friends that were so enthusiastic about consistently posting in this thread yesterday?

Jessica
SirWood
SN
Buzz
7sergi9

Who else am I missing?

Tbf, Buzz has been a pretty fantastic poster this cycle (just Trumpy) and Sergi has had a good sense of humor in this thread.  

Yeah Buzz is fine, and seems like a very reasonable person even if I disagree with him on some political stuff. Throwing him onto the same list as SN and Woodbury definately isn't a fair thing to do. Jessica has also become a pretty good and reasonable poster too

I'd forgotten about Jessica (sorry, girl).  She's uber-conservative, but that's okay! Props to her for rebuking Trump last night.  

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Chuck Todd says NBC may call Pennsylvania today and that they are at "over 90% confidence of a Biden win, but we're waiting for at least 95%."

"May" Jesus effing Christ. End this thing.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Please, for the mental health of our country will they just please call this election before the weekend. If we don't get a general consensus of course - - by the close of business this is going to be interminable.

Maybe they're just waiting for the evening news to do it or something. Better ratings and all.

[Inmate Trump]

By the way ...
What happened to our blue-avatar friends that were so enthusiastic about consistently posting in this thread yesterday?

Jessica
SirWood
SN
Buzz
7sergi9

Who else am I missing?

Tbf, Buzz has been a pretty fantastic poster this cycle (just Trumpy) and Sergi has had a good sense of humor in this thread.  

Yeah Buzz is fine, and seems like a very reasonable person even if I disagree with him on some political stuff. Throwing him onto the same list as SN and Woodbury definately isn't a fair thing to do. Jessica has also become a pretty good and reasonable poster too

I agree, Buzz shouldn't be on the same list with Woodbury.  Buzz is a decent poster, even if some of his posts infuriate me sometimes.  It's a different kind of infuriate than is produced by some of the trolls.  Even Jessica has said the race is over, and Trump should concede.

But I think the reason they're not around is because, well, Trump lost.  If Biden had lost, I'd probably exit this forum for a bit too.

[wbrocks67]

My guess is the next Maricopa drop will skew Trump but only by mid or low double digits

They will undoubtedly have a Trump lead of some sort. Just depends on margin

[GoTfan]

By the way ...
What happened to our blue-avatar friends that were so enthusiastic about consistently posting in this thread yesterday?

Jessica
SirWood
SN
Buzz
7sergi9

Who else am I missing?

Me, probably