2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Rep Jessica]

Put me at ease: I fear Biden will come up short in the remaining states.

Does it appear to be likely that will happen?

No. He'll take the lead in GA and PA tonight.

Philly is taking forever to count the votes. This BS doesn't help speed things up.

https://6abc.com/pennsylvania-convention-center-attack-plot-pa-election-2020/7689932/

It is sad to see both sides(both being the thugs in the BLM and assholes on the right wanting to kill and kidnap) taking part in violence. People need to freaking stop and learn to reason again.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I was just about to head off to bed, but then I saw that Georgia margin. Now I can't rest until it turns blue for the first time in my lifetime

[Benjamin Frank]

Biden just gained 602 votes in GA. The margin is now just 665 in Georgia.

Blue Georgia was once the stuff of dreams.

But now it’s reality.

Global warming

Georgia is sinking and I don't want to swim. 

[Kuumo]

Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

Irrespective of who wins or loses Georgia, Trump performed better virtually everywhere than the Republicans did in 2018, yet Brian Kamp won the governorship in Georgia by 53,000 votes.  I think this provides even more evidence that Brian Kamp stole the governorship.

That was with a midterm electorate and this is with a general election electorate. In a state like Georgia with a strong age divide, that will benefit the Republicans over the Democrats. Also why Republicans do better in the runoffs.

Totally disagree.  2018 was a semi-wave Democratic cycle.

I don't think the electorate in Georgia swings as much as in other places. Demographics and who turned out and who didn't are much more important.

I don't want to say the e-word, but it is definitely true that Georgia is less elastic than most other states. If Democrats manage to keep Atlanta-area white suburbanites in their column (possible, but not a given) and Georgia continues to get more demographically favorable (likely), Georgia could become a Titanium Tilt D state that votes Democratic by low single digits in every statewide election.

[Benjamin Frank]

Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

Irrespective of who wins or loses Georgia, Trump performed better virtually everywhere than the Republicans did in 2018, yet Brian Kamp won the governorship in Georgia by 53,000 votes.  I think this provides even more evidence that Brian Kamp stole the governorship.

That was with a midterm electorate and this is with a general election electorate. In a state like Georgia with a strong age divide, that will benefit the Republicans over the Democrats. Also why Republicans do better in the runoffs.

Totally disagree.  2018 was a semi-wave Democratic cycle.

I don't think the electorate in Georgia swings as much as in other places. Demographics and who turned out and who didn't are much more important.

I don't want to say the e-word, but it is definitely true that Georgia is less elastic than most other states. If Democrats manage to keep Atlanta-area white suburbanites in their column (possible, but not a given) and Georgia continues to get more demographically favorable (likely), Georgia could become a Titanium Tilt D state that votes Democratic by low single digits in every statewide election.

Heh, maybe by then though all the black working class voters will be Republican.

I'm not trying to be facetious here. There will obviously be a major battle for the direction of the Republican Party wherein one faction argues that the Republican Party should become a multi racial party of the working class.  I personally don't see how they get from here to there given the history and present makeup of the Republican Party, but it's something to watch for.

[Meclazine for Israel]

As requested, now including NC, AK. I took them out because they never change. The staff have taken annual leave at the NV and AK offices for some reason. (they only had one job on one day of the year)

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 46,667 (90% counted)

Of the remaining ~340,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 146,500 of them - (43.0%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 665 (>99% counted)

Of the remaining ~21,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 10,833 of them - (51.6%)

PA - Biden down by 18,229 (95% counted)

Of the remaining ~270,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~144,115 of them - (53.4%)

AK - Biden down by 51,382 (56% counted)

Of the remaining ~135,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~93,500 of them - (69.0%)

NC - Biden down by 76,737 (95% counted)

Of the remaining ~287,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~182,000 of them - (63.4%)

The ratios of late votes coming in the last 4 hours:

AZ (Biden : Trump =  53.0%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.8%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

[DaleCooper]

Regarding the runoff, so far something that has seemed true in the age of Trump is that Democrats perform better almost everywhere in off-year elections than in presidential elections. We'll see how that goes with Trump defeated.

[lfromnj]

The GA GOP's best bet is basically draw some legislative gerrymander that holds the decade which should be easy, Maine Rule the state for presidential stuff and then just pray the GOP makes legitimate gains with black voters before 2032.

[emailking]

Recounnts don't usually change calls aside from 2000, right?

The recount didn't actually change anything in 2000. But anyway, a recount will change a few hundred votes at most. More significant changes could conceivably come from legal challenges that could get votes thrown out or include votes that were initially thrown out.

[roxas11]

Put me at ease: I fear Biden will come up short in the remaining states.

Does it appear to be likely that will happen?

No. He'll take the lead in GA and PA tonight.

Philly is taking forever to count the votes. This BS doesn't help speed things up.

https://6abc.com/pennsylvania-convention-center-attack-plot-pa-election-2020/7689932/

It is sad to see both sides(both being the thugs in the BLM and assholes on the right wanting to kill and kidnap) taking part in violence. People need to freaking stop and learn to reason again.

look say what you will About BLM
but there is big difference between that and Right wing groups trying to literally kidnap and kill people

The FBI stopping a plot to kill the governor of Michigan goes far beyond any craziness I have ever saw From BLM or even antifa




 

[Benjamin Frank]

Recounnts don't usually change calls aside from 2000, right?

The recount didn't actually change anything in 2000. But anyway, a recount will change a few hundred votes at most. More significant changes could conceivably come from legal challenges that could get votes thrown out or include votes that were initially thrown out.

The Democrats also won the Washington State governorship in 2004 after a recount (actually 2 recounts.)

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Put me at ease: I fear Biden will come up short in the remaining states.

Does it appear to be likely that will happen?

No. He'll take the lead in GA and PA tonight.

Philly is taking forever to count the votes. This BS doesn't help speed things up.

https://6abc.com/pennsylvania-convention-center-attack-plot-pa-election-2020/7689932/

It is sad to see both sides(both being the thugs in the BLM and assholes on the right wanting to kill and kidnap) taking part in violence. People need to freaking stop and learn to reason again.

look say what you will About BLM
but there is big difference between that and Right wing groups trying to literally kidnap and kill people

The FBI stopping a plot to kill the governor of Michigan goes far beyond any craziness I have ever saw From BLM or even antifa




 

They weren't right wing. They supported BLM. They were just crazy nutjobs.

[McGarnagle]

Trump's lead down to 665 in Georgia

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/nov/05/us-election-2020-live-results-donald-trump-joe-biden-presidential-votes-arizona-nevada-pennsylvania-georgia

[Dr. Frankenstein]

The GA GOP's best bet is basically draw some legislative gerrymander that holds the decade which should be easy, Maine Rule the state for presidential stuff and then just pray the GOP makes legitimate gains with black voters before 2032.

Tbh, this sounds so f**ked up.

[Ancestral Republican]

Recounnts don't usually change calls aside from 2000, right?

The recount didn't actually change anything in 2000. But anyway, a recount will change a few hundred votes at most. More significant changes could conceivably come from legal challenges that could get votes thrown out or include votes that were initially thrown out.

The Democrats also won the Washington State governorship in 2004 after a recount (actually 2 recounts.)

That was a really weird one.

[Dr. Frankenstein]

Put me at ease: I fear Biden will come up short in the remaining states.

Does it appear to be likely that will happen?

No. He'll take the lead in GA and PA tonight.

Philly is taking forever to count the votes. This BS doesn't help speed things up.

https://6abc.com/pennsylvania-convention-center-attack-plot-pa-election-2020/7689932/

It is sad to see both sides(both being the thugs in the BLM and assholes on the right wanting to kill and kidnap) taking part in violence. People need to freaking stop and learn to reason again.

look say what you will About BLM
but there is big difference between that and Right wing groups trying to literally kidnap and kill people

The FBI stopping a plot to kill the governor of Michigan goes far beyond any craziness I have ever saw From BLM or even antifa




 

No, it doesn’t. Just ask Fuzzy. Smdh. 

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

some just do not want to cope

[NOVA Green]

Regarding Arizona---

Several posters earlier in the Night have been posting updates and % of vote returned by CD within Maricopa County AZ.

I did a bit of work on AZ CD-08 SE back in the days...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=287204.msg6135267#msg6135267

So here's a bit of compare /contrast that I did from the Cities of Maricopa County from '12 > '16



Make of that what you will, but suspect that Maricopa County outstanding ballots will flip back and increase Biden numbers once we start getting counted the Absentees and Provisionals fully....

[2952-0-0]

I think 70% of Trump supporters are at Stage 1, with 30% at Stage 2 in the stages of grief.

[DaleCooper]

I really think the AP would've retracted their Arizona call at this point if they believed it was going to come down to a couple thousand votes either way.

[Alben Barkley]

The Donald went down to Georgia

He was looking for an election to steal

He was in a bind because he was way behind

He was willing to make a deal

When he came across this old man sawin' on a fiddle and playin' it hot

And the Donald jumped upon a hickory stump and said "Boy, let me tell you what."

"I guess you didn't know it, but I'm a fiddle player, too

And if you'd care to take a dare I'll make a bet with you

Now you play a pretty good fiddle, boy, but give the Donald his due

I'll bet a fiddle of gold against your vote 'cause I think I'm better than you."

The man said, "My name's Jimmy, and it might be a sin

But I'll take your bet, and you're gonna regret, 'cause I'm the best there's ever been."

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

I think 70% of Trump supporters are at Stage 1, with 30% at Stage 2 in the stages of grief.

Denial and Anger, for those who don't know.

Next is Bargaining, then Depression, then Acceptance, which only a small handful of Trump supporters will reach.

[roxas11]

Put me at ease: I fear Biden will come up short in the remaining states.

Does it appear to be likely that will happen?

No. He'll take the lead in GA and PA tonight.

Philly is taking forever to count the votes. This BS doesn't help speed things up.

https://6abc.com/pennsylvania-convention-center-attack-plot-pa-election-2020/7689932/

It is sad to see both sides(both being the thugs in the BLM and assholes on the right wanting to kill and kidnap) taking part in violence. People need to freaking stop and learn to reason again.

look say what you will About BLM
but there is big difference between that and Right wing groups trying to literally kidnap and kill people

The FBI stopping a plot to kill the governor of Michigan goes far beyond any craziness I have ever saw From BLM or even antifa




 

They weren't right wing. They supported BLM. They were just crazy nutjobs.

wrong

 
Seven of them were linked to the Wolverine Watchmen militia


now it maybe true that some of them did have some liberal opinions but make not mistake this was a right wing group

[Bootes Void]

This might be Jimmy Carter's last election. Watching Ga go blue for him is quite something

[philly09]

This might be Jimmy Carter's last election. Watching Ga go blue for him is quite something

Yep, a nice bookend to what happened 40 years ago.