2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Arizona kinda reminds me of 1992 Georgia. They called GA for Clinton almost instantly and were right even though it ended up being one of the closest states of the election.

That's a good comparison. Especially since GA was becoming more and more R in 1992, and the same thing holds for AZ right now.

[GALeftist]

I mean I’m glad Spanberger hung on but girl like.... complaining about a BLM attack ad against you and blaming leadership? It’s called a campaign. Learn to run one better next time so you can fight off these attacks.

She's right though.

"Defund the police" sounds really bad.

Cool. No one in the Democratic leadership ever said to defund the police. So, again, Spanberger should be able to run her own campaign without blaming others for nearly losing.

But Rashida Tlaib and AOC were all about defunding and their words were used against DMP and Spanberger

Awesome. Maybe Spanberger should complain about them then? But to be honest, she really should take responsibility for her own election results. Stop scapegoating others for your own crappy results.

Spanberger is saying that the leadership should have put its foot down and tell Rashida Tlaib and AOC to knock it off, or else...

Or else what? None of them are vulnerable, their bases are too strong to be primaries and they're in safe seats.

[American2020]

Erie County
Trump: 49.5
Biden: 49.1

[Hindsight was 2020]

Philadephia: 85,000-90,000 left

I really don't understand these numbers with what is being uploaded to, say the NYT results. Or is that everyone's confusion. Are they just not loading results but saying that they've counted them?

That seems to be the case

[Alben Barkley]

So there's about 550,000 left in Pennsylvania which should seal the deal for Biden if they continue to favour him by the huge margins they have so far. Just one snag though:

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1324423231210721282

If Biden wins 80% of the remaining urban and suburban votes he'll be statistically tied (by my estimate down by just under 10k votes), but it appears the vast remainder of those votes are in rural counties. If the count estimates are right then these include Greene County (79% reporting, currently 80% for Trump, went 68% for Trump in 2016), Tioga County (79% reporting, 81% for Trump, 74% Trump in 2016) and Crawford County (72% reporting, 79% for Trump, 66% Trump in 2016).

So if Biden gets it close and the rural late counts go like Erie did (1-3/1-4 margins for Biden) then Biden has it in the bag. The only snag is that Erie was extremely narrow in both elections, whereas most of these counties went massively for Trump even in 2016. If Biden can at least tie or win on the back of his mail in overperformance then he's safe, but if they come in any worse than 50-50 then Trump could actually narrowly win Pennsylvania. It all comes down to whether mail/late votes in heavily red counties went for Biden or not, again assuming the tweet's numbers are accurate.

Even the rural mail vote in PA has been favoring Biden. The difference between mail and in-person there was THAT lopsided.

[anthonyjg]

https://twitter.com/uselectionatlas/status/1324458611041574912?s=21

He has spoken

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I mean I’m glad Spanberger hung on but girl like.... complaining about a BLM attack ad against you and blaming leadership? It’s called a campaign. Learn to run one better next time so you can fight off these attacks.

She's right though.

"Defund the police" sounds really bad.

Cool. No one in the Democratic leadership ever said to defund the police. So, again, Spanberger should be able to run her own campaign without blaming others for nearly losing.

But Rashida Tlaib and AOC were all about defunding and their words were used against DMP and Spanberger

Awesome. Maybe Spanberger should complain about them then? But to be honest, she really should take responsibility for her own election results. Stop scapegoating others for your own crappy results.

Spanberger is saying that the leadership should have put its foot down and tell Rashida Tlaib and AOC to knock it off, or else...

Or else what? None of them are vulnerable, their bases are too strong to be primaries and they're in safe seats.

Screw them over on committee assignments?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Erie County
Trump: 49.5
Biden: 49.1

Are these absolutely final results?

[Bootes Void]

2024 pls!!!!
https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1324448622658965505?s=20

he sounds like a sore loser. Anyway does anyone think Hawley can reach trump's appeal? or is trump a unique character in reaching out to the working class voters. Im not sure if other republicans can replicate trump's success but im not sure

Also Harley is a transparent douche bag with an unbelievably easy to attack record

Hey, don’t insult Harley Rouda like that!

Is Rouda going to lose, he's down 0.7% with some ballots out. I have no idea how those will go

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/uselectionatlas/status/1324458611041574912?s=21

He has spoken

The lord!!!!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Trump down to a +1.5 point margin in PA.  

[wbrocks67]

20-40K in Philly suburbs sounds right I guess. More like 40K. Bucks still has 21K out, and Delco probably like 15-20K.

Lehigh still very behind too. They've reported like nothing all day, and they still had at least 30K+ to report.

[pppolitics]

I mean I’m glad Spanberger hung on but girl like.... complaining about a BLM attack ad against you and blaming leadership? It’s called a campaign. Learn to run one better next time so you can fight off these attacks.

She's right though.

"Defund the police" sounds really bad.

Cool. No one in the Democratic leadership ever said to defund the police. So, again, Spanberger should be able to run her own campaign without blaming others for nearly losing.

But Rashida Tlaib and AOC were all about defunding and their words were used against DMP and Spanberger

Awesome. Maybe Spanberger should complain about them then? But to be honest, she really should take responsibility for her own election results. Stop scapegoating others for your own crappy results.

Spanberger is saying that the leadership should have put its foot down and tell Rashida Tlaib and AOC to knock it off, or else...

Or else what? None of them are vulnerable, their bases are too strong to be primaries and they're in safe seats.

Kick them off the committee. If they still don't back down, kick them out of the caucus.

House Democrats can take a two seats loss.

[Dr. Arch]

Erie County
Trump: 49.5
Biden: 49.1

Are these absolutely final results?

No. 10% of Erie is missing.

[Meclazine for Israel]

As long as PA and GA don't run out of votes, this wont take long at the current growth rates in the Biden numbers. As we approach the final mail-in ballots, Biden is performing strongly.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 68,129 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~474,300 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 203,000 of them - (42.8%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 12,765 (98% counted)

Of the remaining ~100,513 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 56,639 of them - (56.3%)

PA - Biden down by 97,900 (92% counted)

Of the remaining ~560,200 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 330,050 of them - (58.7%)

The ratios of votes coming in are:

AZ (Trump : Biden =  54.8%)
NV (Biden : Trump =  56.7%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  65.2%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

I would say PA will comfortably go to Biden if the current numerical patterns in the vote counting continue.

Biden's necessary % has dropped one percent since my last post for example because he is landing votes at a ratio of 4:1 to Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

LOL:

https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1324444189019402240

Scott, take it from an old card player: no matter how long you stare at a deuce, it ain't gonna turn into an ace.

[GeneralMacArthur]

It's absurd to blame "socialism" for Biden's (and the Democrats') failures among Latinos.  If Latinos were uniquely averse to "socialism", they wouldn't have overwhelmingly voted for Bernie in the primary.

The reason Biden failed among Latinos is that he made almost no effort to appeal to Latinos in either his presentation or policy focus.  Choosing Harris as a running mate was a huge mistake in this sense.  Say what you will about Tim Kaine's other weaknesses, but at least he spoke fluent Spanish and would frequent give speeches on the campaign trail in Spanish.

Moreover, this biggest moral crimes committed by the Trump administration throughout the term were on immigration.  Yet Biden almost entirely ignored this issue in favor of a focus on covid and BLM issues.  How can the communities most personally affected by Trump's immigration atrocities fail to notice this?

Yeah, I know it's trendy for everyone to absolutely hate Tim Kaine and call him the worst VP pick ever, but I wonder if the latino result in this election helps vindicate the Kaine pick somewhat.  You may have thought it was goofy, but Kaine made a real effort to reach out to latinos.  Kaine was out there in AZ/FL giving speeches entirely in fluent spanish.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Erie County
Trump: 49.5
Biden: 49.1

Are these absolutely final results?

No. 10% of Erie is missing.

Ouch

[GALeftist]

Anyways, if these losers are looking for someone outside of themselves to blame for their electoral performance, why don't they blame Robby Mook? Have no idea how they gave that clown the Majority PAC after 2016's unmitigated embarrassment.

[n1240]

Erie County
Trump: 49.5
Biden: 49.1

Are these absolutely final results?

5k mail left

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Erie County
Trump: 49.5
Biden: 49.1

Are these absolutely final results?

No. 10% of Erie is missing.

Ok. That means Erie likely stays Dem at least.

[Tender Branson]

[CookieDamage]

I mean I’m glad Spanberger hung on but girl like.... complaining about a BLM attack ad against you and blaming leadership? It’s called a campaign. Learn to run one better next time so you can fight off these attacks.

She's right though.

"Defund the police" sounds really bad.

Cool. No one in the Democratic leadership ever said to defund the police. So, again, Spanberger should be able to run her own campaign without blaming others for nearly losing.

But Rashida Tlaib and AOC were all about defunding and their words were used against DMP and Spanberger

Awesome. Maybe Spanberger should complain about them then? But to be honest, she really should take responsibility for her own election results. Stop scapegoating others for your own crappy results.

Spanberger is saying that the leadership should have put its foot down and tell Rashida Tlaib and AOC to knock it off, or else...

Or else what? None of them are vulnerable, their bases are too strong to be primaries and they're in safe seats.

Kick them off the committee. If they still don't back down, kick them out of the caucus.

House Democrats can take a two seats loss.

Incredibly divisive and alienating to just kick them out

[Dr. Arch]

Erie County
Trump: 49.5
Biden: 49.1

Are these absolutely final results?

No. 10% of Erie is missing.

Ok. That means Erie likely stays Dem at least.

Flips Dem. It went for Trump in 2016.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1324449985195376651