2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[politics_king]

It's almost over in GA. Looks like Clayton still has about 20K votes and it's a Biden 85% county. Rest of the votes are almost all in Democratic counties - Dekalb, Cobb, Gwinnett, Chatham, Muscogee, Bibb and Richmond

Curious, how much does Ossoff need to get Perdue under 50% I see that he's up by 100k

[dunceDude]

I'm not sure Nate Silver has any credibility left. There are probably better people you could turn to for an understanding of the remaining vote.

Maybe unpopular opinion, Silver did a good job.

Mentally I know this election is over but I wouldn't mind reading it on the front page of the NYT just to be sure.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kalawao County, HI results:

Biden 23
Trump 1

County sweep for Biden! Lol.

I bet that one Trump voter is really shy. Lmao.

shy Trump voters DO exist!

[BudgieForce]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Carrasquillo/status/1324210928271958017

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

howardfineman
@howardfineman
·
7m
My best vote-counter source in #PA now predicting final #Biden victory margin of 200K - 300K. That’s a tick up from a few hours ago.

the flaw in paganism

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324211037558743040

[emailking]

I'm not sure Nate Silver has any credibility left.

Don't see why. It's looking like he called this election right.

[BlueSwan]

Just woke up after 9 hours of sleep (finally!!). Have to go to work so no time to catch up. Could anybody help?

Nevada looks scary close. Are we still confident about that one?

Is Arizona still disputed? It was last night.

Biden has caught up quite a lot in PA - what's the general verdict here?

Any real news on which direction GA is taking?

[redjohn]

I wonder if we can realistically expect a call tonight. I'm so exhausted from these past ~30 hours of nail-biting election results. It's just a waiting game of seeing whether networks call PA/GA first.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Based on the 253-214 scoreboard, here's Biden's 9 possible paths to push him over the line:

1. PN
2. GA and NC
3. GA and AZ
4. NC and AZ
5. GA and NV
6. NC and NV
7. AZ and NV
8. GA and AK
9. NC and AK

So which one is the most likely to happen right now?

PA is leading.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=410594.0;viewResults

[forsythvoter]

Trump lead in GA is down to 12K, with about 65K remaining votes in heavily Democratic areas.

Just woke up after 9 hours of sleep (finally!!). Have to go to work so no time to catch up. Could anybody help?

Nevada looks scary close. Are we still confident about that one?

Is Arizona still disputed? It was last night.

Biden has caught up quite a lot in PA - what's the general verdict here?

Any real news on which direction GA is taking?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm not sure Nate Silver has any credibility left.

Don't see why. It's looking like he called this election right.

538's model pretty much nailed the most likely paths for Trump.

[dunceDude]

I wonder if we can realistically expect a call tonight. I'm so exhausted from these past ~30 hours of nail-biting election results. It's just a waiting game of seeing whether networks call PA/GA first.

I'm just making a guess but that guess is yes.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Just woke up after 9 hours of sleep (finally!!). Have to go to work so no time to catch up. Could anybody help?

Nevada looks scary close. Are we still confident about that one?

Is Arizona still disputed? It was last night.

Biden has caught up quite a lot in PA - what's the general verdict here?

Any real news on which direction GA is taking?

Nevada should be good because the rest is Vegas mail in. AZ is gonna be close. PA is almost safe Biden--he's passed 270. GA is lean/likely Biden.

[rhg2052]

Just woke up after 9 hours of sleep (finally!!). Have to go to work so no time to catch up. Could anybody help?

Nevada looks scary close. Are we still confident about that one?

Is Arizona still disputed? It was last night.

Biden has caught up quite a lot in PA - what's the general verdict here?

Any real news on which direction GA is taking?

Nevada - Generally confident, most of the vote left is VBM from Clark County.

Arizona - AP & Fox have called it. It has tightened a bit and may continue to do so but it does not seem like a flip back to Trump is imminent.

Pennsylvania - Gradually chipping away, Biden is overperforming benchmarks and should end up the clear leader

Georgia - Getting very close. Biden may pull ahead imminently.

[BlueSwan]

Just woke up after 9 hours of sleep (finally!!). Have to go to work so no time to catch up. Could anybody help?

Nevada looks scary close. Are we still confident about that one?

Is Arizona still disputed? It was last night.

Biden has caught up quite a lot in PA - what's the general verdict here?

Any real news on which direction GA is taking?

Nevada should be good because the rest is Vegas mail in. AZ is gonna be close. PA is almost safe Biden--he's passed 270. GA is lean/likely Biden.

Thanks mate. Sounds good!

[libertpaulian]

If Biden wins AZ, GA, NC, NV, and PA, 538 just may have been the site to follow all along.

[BlueSwan]

Just woke up after 9 hours of sleep (finally!!). Have to go to work so no time to catch up. Could anybody help?

Nevada looks scary close. Are we still confident about that one?

Is Arizona still disputed? It was last night.

Biden has caught up quite a lot in PA - what's the general verdict here?

Any real news on which direction GA is taking?

Nevada - Generally confident, most of the vote left is VBM from Clark County.

Arizona - AP & Fox have called it. It has tightened a bit and may continue to do so but it does not seem like a flip back to Trump is imminent.

Pennsylvania - Gradually chipping away, Biden is overperforming benchmarks and should end up the clear leader

Georgia - Getting very close. Biden may pull ahead imminently.

Thanks mate! Good news to start the day!

[S019ian Liberal]

No matter what, we know Sabato made a better call than 538 did.

[Podgy the Bear]

In the end, the prognosticators may not have been all that off.  Probable 4 percent PV margin for Biden (6-7 million vote lead) and 306-321 EV.  We just had to go through a horror movie to get to this (hopeful) ending.

[Ferguson97]

If Biden wins AZ, GA, NC, NV, and PA, 538 just may have been the site to follow all along.

Sabato, Selzter, and Rasmussen would be our new gold standards

[politics_king]

Chris Cuomo & Don Lemon on CNN now, they might end up calling the election. LOL! That'll be great, these two banter way too much with each other.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Kalawao County, HI results:

Biden 23
Trump 1

The island of Niihau gave Trump 43 votes and none to anyone else.

Weird that Biden had a big comeback with Natives/Pacific Islanders, but did terrible with Hispanics. You would assume that they are similar voting blocks.

[Alben Barkley]

I'm not sure Nate Silver has any credibility left.

Don't see why. It's looking like he called this election right.

When it is a 2 horse race, it is not difficult to be right at least some of the time.

People listen to pollsters for specific info, and when it comes to the specifics his polls and commentary favoured an enormous win for Biden and the house. Neither have happened.

He’s not a pollster. He’s a statistician. He works with the data he’s given, he doesn’t create it. He’s pretty damn good at that and math in general.

[Alben Barkley]

Kalawao County, HI results:

Biden 23
Trump 1

The island of Niihau gave Trump 43 votes and none to anyone else.

Weird that Biden had a big comeback with Natives/Pacific Islanders, but did terrible with Hispanics. You would assume that they are similar voting blocks.

Why?