2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[n1240]

Biden has taken a 1% lead in Bucks County and there are 30k ballots left to count in the county.

[VBM]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324192510651043840

GA is really just coming through across the board, meeting/exceeding in a way no other state is except perhaps Minnesota and Colorado.

If Blorgia happens, Georgia is the MVP of this election

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

So when do we get Alaska's results?

[Asta]

Late in the game but I voted for Jorgensen. Can’t wait until we have a Republican candidate I feel good about supporting again.

Just random comment, but is it just me or does Atlas have over-representation of blue avatars and conservatives that are soft Trump supporters or NeverTrump people?

RINO Tom, ExtremeRepublican, DTC etc. come to mind, (Sorry if I missed anyone) and I've seen handful of blue avatars with Biden Harris endorsements. Just kind of amazing.

[Ferguson97]

116-117k ballots are outstanding in NC, per CBS.

Where are they from, what are they (in-person or mail-in), & what does this all mean for Biden/Cunningham's chances? Presumably nothing, given the current margins?

I think Biden would have to win like 62% of all of those ballots but my math may be wrong

[Calthrina950]

I've a question. Does anyone have a guess as to how many counties Biden won? Looking at the county map, it appears that Biden flipped about 15-20 Trump counties from 2016 nationwide, while Trump flipped about a dozen Clinton counties. Biden didn't come anywhere near to approaching Barack Obama's 2012 numbers, let alone his 2008 numbers.

[Tekken_Guy]

116-117k ballots are outstanding in NC, per CBS.

Where are they from, what are they (in-person or mail-in), & what does this all mean for Biden/Cunningham's chances? Presumably nothing, given the current margins?

I think Biden would have to win like 62% of all of those ballots but my math may be wrong

How about for Cal?

[MATTROSE94]

116-117k ballots are outstanding in NC, per CBS.

Where are they from, what are they (in-person or mail-in), & what does this all mean for Biden/Cunningham's chances? Presumably nothing, given the current margins?

I think Biden would have to win like 62% of all of those ballots but my math may be wrong

How about for Cal?

He would have to win about 95% of them to have a chance.

[MillennialModerate]

116-117k ballots are outstanding in NC, per CBS.

Wait, so there's a chance?

Math not your strong suit?

Biden/Cunningham even more so - would have to win those by an unreal number

[dunceDude]

Biden's popular vote lead now stands at 2.5%. On PredictIt, shares for a win in the 3.0-4.5% range have doubled in the last 6 hours to 50%. 4.5-6% is plausible as well at 40%. Silver tweeted a rough guess at final vote Biden+4.3%.

Rough calc of tipping point and popular vote/EC split

Assuming that Biden wins Pennsylvania by more than .6 points but does NOT win Georgia or Arizona by that much, Wisconsin will be the tipping point state. If Biden wins AZ or GA by more than Wisconsin, that larger margin would be the tipping point. That makes Georgia the other main contender for tipping point state as I get the sense Arizona will be a squeaker.

(Nevada does not have enough EVs to be tipping point regardless of margin. It would only put Biden at 269 after PA/MI/MN)

Let's just assume Silver's dead on with the +4.3% final popular vote margin and Wisconsin is the tipping point—that's a popular vote/EC split of 3.7%.

In 2016, that split was only 2.8% (HRC won by 2.1% but lost PA, tipping point state, by 0.7%).

Does this suggest that Biden's coalition was even less efficient than Hillary Clinton's?

Also interesting to think about the national crisis that would have followed a slight shift .6% toward the GOP—Trump re-elected despite a 3.7% popular vote loss.

Of course, win Georgia by a larger margin and the math all changes.

[brucejoel99]

116-117k ballots are outstanding in NC, per CBS.

Where are they from, what are they (in-person or mail-in), & what does this all mean for Biden/Cunningham's chances? Presumably nothing, given the current margins?

I think Biden would have to win like 62% of all of those ballots but my math may be wrong

Which isn't happening, I presume? Legitimately asking (not a doomer, I promise), I haven't been able to pay as much attention to the election statistics today as I'd have liked to.

[Calthrina950]

Late in the game but I voted for Jorgensen. Can’t wait until we have a Republican candidate I feel good about supporting again.

Just random comment, but is it just me or does Atlas have over-representation of blue avatars and conservatives that are soft Trump supporters or NeverTrump people?

RINO Tom, ExtremeRepublican, DTC etc. come to mind, (Sorry if I missed anyone) and I've seen handful of blue avatars with Biden Harris endorsements. Just kind of amazing.

Roll Roons and Penn Quaker Girl are two others. But yes, they are definitely overrepresented on this forum, compared to the country at large. It's clear that the Lincoln Project failed in its objectives, and the Republican base-as we all knew-are firmly behind Trump. Trump apparently got 93% of the Republican vote in this election.

[Stuart98]

So when do we get Alaska's results?

Next Tuesday.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/DrPaulGosar/status/1324187237022535683?s=20

[Roll Roons]

Biden has taken a 1% lead in Bucks County and there are 30k ballots left to count in the county.

Where'd you see this? NYT still has Trump with a tiny lead in Bucks.

[philly09]

Biden has taken a 1% lead in Bucks County and there are 30k ballots left to count in the county.

Boom-shacka-lacka.  The most GOP-friendly suburb of Philly. If Biden can win by more than 2, he's in great shape. Obama and Hillary barely won it.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Late in the game but I voted for Jorgensen. Can’t wait until we have a Republican candidate I feel good about supporting again.

Just random comment, but is it just me or does Atlas have over-representation of blue avatars and conservatives that are soft Trump supporters or NeverTrump people?

RINO Tom, ExtremeRepublican, DTC etc. come to mind, (Sorry if I missed anyone) and I've seen handful of blue avatars with Biden Harris endorsements. Just kind of amazing.

To paraphrase Adlai Stevenson, every thinking person is voting Biden/Harris. And people who enjoy precinct results this much probably aren't braindead.

[Illiniwek]

116-117k ballots are outstanding in NC, per CBS.

Wait, so there's a chance?

He'd need to win 80+% of these votes to win. Seems like too much to do.

[Rep Jessica]

Late in the game but I voted for Jorgensen. Can’t wait until we have a Republican candidate I feel good about supporting again.

Don't worry, the Republican Party will be back to nominating a warmongerer who doesn't much care about people dying from lack of healthcare before you know it. He won't tweet too much so you'll all love him.

Biden is more of a warmonger then Trump! He'll probably get us into war with Iran and North Korea.

[Bootes Void]

Looks like the tipping point state will be going a 1% right of NPV
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1324189428672307202

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Why hasn't Alaska been called?

[Ferguson97]

Why hasn't Alaska been called?

They aren't counting mail-in ballots at all until next Tuesday

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Biden has taken a 1% lead in Bucks County and there are 30k ballots left to count in the county.

Where'd you see this? NYT still has Trump with a tiny lead in Bucks.

Still a Trump lead on the state website as well

[Bootes Void]

Why hasn't Alaska been called?

VBM starts counting next week

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Late in the game but I voted for Jorgensen. Can’t wait until we have a Republican candidate I feel good about supporting again.

Just random comment, but is it just me or does Atlas have over-representation of blue avatars and conservatives that are soft Trump supporters or NeverTrump people?

RINO Tom, ExtremeRepublican, DTC etc. come to mind, (Sorry if I missed anyone) and I've seen handful of blue avatars with Biden Harris endorsements. Just kind of amazing.

Roll Roons and Penn Quaker Girl are two others. But yes, they are definitely overrepresented on this forum, compared to the country at large. It's clear that the Lincoln Project failed in its objectives, and the Republican base-as we all knew-are firmly behind Trump. Trump apparently got 93% of the Republican vote in this election.

It’s almost like relying on Republicans to vote against Republicans isn’t the best strategy.