2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Progressive Pessimist]

Democrats just didn't do well on their own--which is why the Senate races were underwhelming and House seats were lost.  

My working theory is that Trump brought a bunch of people out of the woodwork into his coalition. These people were historically not very political and don't vote often (if ever) and tend to be low-info but were swept up in "Trumpmania" over the last few years. I suspect these people would be 1) possibly screened out in a "likely voter" model and 2)would vote straight R up and down the ticket because TRUMP

I agree with this analysis and it also tells me that the GOP could get destroyed in 2022 when it faces an educated electorate and a lot fewer Trump fanatics.

I hope so. One of the Democrats' top priority between 2021 and 2022 is that they need to keep their coalition engaged while adding back some that have faltered.

[DrScholl]

Democrats just didn't do well on their own--which is why the Senate races were underwhelming and House seats were lost.  

My working theory is that Trump brought a bunch of people out of the woodwork into his coalition. These people were historically not very political and don't vote often (if ever) and tend to be low-info but were swept up in "Trumpmania" over the last few years. I suspect these people would be 1) possibly screened out in a "likely voter" model and 2)would vote straight R up and down the ticket because TRUMP

I agree with this and have often thought that many Trump voters are apathetic types who simply voted for him because they perceive his message to be straight to the point and telling it like is.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Democrats just didn't do well on their own--which is why the Senate races were underwhelming and House seats were lost.  

My working theory is that Trump brought a bunch of people out of the woodwork into his coalition. These people were historically not very political and don't vote often (if ever) and tend to be low-info but were swept up in "Trumpmania" over the last few years. I suspect these people would be 1) possibly screened out in a "likely voter" model and 2)would vote straight R up and down the ticket because TRUMP

Anecdotally I'd tend to agree with this. I have a few 50-year-old coworkers who have never voted in their life and all of a sudden in the past 6 months suddenly became huge Trump fans.

This is certifiably insane given what has happened the past six months, yet it would clearly be consistent with what we're seeing. What a maddening year this has been.

[Alben Barkley]

We’re on pace to have the highest turnout since 1896, about 74%.

That was William Jennings Bryan’s FIRST of three elections.

[ultraviolet]

So is Biden favored to win Georgia at this point?

[ucscgaldamez1]

How many ballots are outstanding in PA? Do we know?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Whoops. Looks like I offended some people with my La Follette comment. I shall go read up on him now. Apologies

La Follette was a true FF

Really an FFB.

[Storr]

Ok Jesusland was nice but...

Solid South ftw.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So is Biden favored to win Georgia at this point?

Based on how the math is shaping out I’d say the odds are tipping in his favor

[Stockdale for Veep]

How many ballots are outstanding in PA? Do we know?

"How many do you need?"

Cook County goes national !

[MillennialModerate]

So is Biden favored to win Georgia at this point?

If you ask everyone yes. But ... well you’ll see

[TopShelfGoal]

Does no one find it funny that we may end up with Michigan-Pennsylvania-Wisconsin in terms of margin after all the "Safe Wisconsin, Tossup PA" takes? Looks like the pre-COVID conventional wisdom will end up being true and the past year has been absolutely useless in terms of election takes.

And the funniest thing is that in Wisconsin, it was the GOP base of the state- the WOW counties that saved Biden by not standing behind Trump like have with other GOP'rs in the past. This election has been weird.

[Pulaski]

How many ballots are outstanding in PA? Do we know?

For like the nineteenth time, mail-ins are still arriving in PA and will be counted (as of right now), so no, nobody knows.

[politics_king]

They drop the ballot results for AZ & GA at 9pm EST right?

[Roronoa D. Law]

So is Biden favored to win Georgia at this point?

If you ask everyone yes. But ... well you’ll see

Honey, Trump lost.

[ultraviolet]

So is Biden favored to win Georgia at this point?

If you ask everyone yes. But ... well you’ll see

Well, I kinda was asking everyone except you since I’ve heard your answer 400 times today

[Hindsight was 2020]

So is Biden favored to win Georgia at this point?

If you ask everyone yes. But ... well you’ll see

Well, I kinda was asking everyone except you since I’ve heard your answer 400 times today

Oh snap
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-y8ViGvCrL8

[MillennialModerate]

So is Biden favored to win Georgia at this point?

If you ask everyone yes. But ... well you’ll see

Well, I kinda was asking everyone except you since I’ve heard your answer 400 times today

LOL okay that was funny

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

How many ballots are outstanding in PA? Do we know?

"How many do you need?"

Cook County goes national !

Amazing, just amazing

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Democrats just didn't do well on their own--which is why the Senate races were underwhelming and House seats were lost.  

My working theory is that Trump brought a bunch of people out of the woodwork into his coalition. These people were historically not very political and don't vote often (if ever) and tend to be low-info but were swept up in "Trumpmania" over the last few years. I suspect these people would be 1) possibly screened out in a "likely voter" model and 2)would vote straight R up and down the ticket because TRUMP

I've read a lot theories today here. Some about Hispanics, some about Males. Somehow, all of them end up that whoever voted for Trump is a dumb old irrational sexist voter who voted for Trump out of love to Macho Daddy Trump.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

While we're talking old maps, I think 1904 has an understated elegance to it. Bonus points for who the winner was.

[Nyvin]

If Trump does win Georgia,  this may very well be the last time in a long while that a Republican will be able to win it.

[Niemeyerite]

Yeah, the most annoying and ridiculous thing in this thread has been MillennialModerate bitchint about GA even when it was getting clear the state's gonna be really close. And that's including SirWoodbury gloating and Sergi fake tweets about Trump winning everything.

[brucejoel99]

We’re on pace to have the highest turnout since 1896, about 74%.

That was William Jennings Bryan’s FIRST of three elections.

Will that be the VAP or VEP turnout rate?

[Malarkey Decider]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324164360017686528

This is concerning.

Nah, the 18 point underperformance was scary when I saw it. This means the Biden will probably win statewide by around 1%.