2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Ancestral Republican]

What's wrong with the Indiana governor's map on NYT? It lists Holcomb winning every county with Rainwater in second. Myers gets no votes.

[Storr]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

CA takes their time to fully count the votes.

Meaning a week or two at least. California likes to take their time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Silver says on the 538 blog that both GA and AZ will post some results around 9pm ET, with AZ (maybe) posting some more about 12:30 am ET.

[AndyHogan14]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

It is far too close for comfort, but when I look at all the races that have been called and add the ones where Dems are leading, they have 221 seats. With the "blue shift" in some states, that should also save some Dems that are trailing but I am definitely not happy with what happened in that chamber.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'm getting a little annoyed about how much many of my friends are going full-in on rigged election conspiracy theories right now

Yeah I'm seeing this all over social media. Finding ballots randomly in Michigan. And something about sharpie pens spoiling ballots in Arizona? I don't know.

Apparently there was a drop of 100K+ ballots in Michigan that went 100% for Biden.  That seems statistically implausible, but I tend to imagine that there was some sort of mundane sorting explanation rather than a massive conspiracy theory.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324130040414720001

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

I checked and I think the dem house majority will survive, but there are some really sad losses all the same.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-house.html

At the same time, we should be making some gains. Bordeaux is a lock and I think Schweikert narrowly goes down. CA-08 could get interesting...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Georgia plus Nevada or Arizona is ballgame regardless of what bush-league psych-out stuff Trump tries to pull in Pennsylvania. I Want To Believe!

[politics_king]

Perdue down to 50.4% statewide.

My back of the napkin figures say if Biden pulls out Georgia, it should knock him under 50.

Biden has to figure out a bold strategy to get Georgians to give us the Senate.

Two Runoff's in Georgia with a unpopular incumbent in Loeffler and God knows what Trump does in the lame duck and if Mitch refuses to do stimulus before the special elections. It could be a perfect storm and the organizing effort in Atlanta has been amazing, I have a friend who does work out there (she's worked with Ossoff before) and I'd be very confident in GOTV for those two elections especially that you can registered new voters for that election by December 7th. What looked like a nightmare may turn into Biden/Harris Administration's favor. It would also be a test for Schumer and his leadership in the Senate.

[Nyvin]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

It's nearly impossible for Republicans to get the House,  there's plenty of uncalled seats that are heavily leaning towards dems, like WA-8, MI-5, AZ-1, and a ton in California.

[AndyHogan14]

Perdue down to 50.4% statewide.

My back of the napkin figures say if Biden pulls out Georgia, it should knock him under 50.

Biden has to figure out a bold strategy to get Georgians to give us the Senate.

That bold strategy should be let Trump have a complete meltdown between now and January and hope that some Trump voters stay home.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm getting a little annoyed about how much many of my friends are going full-in on rigged election conspiracy theories right now

Yeah I'm seeing this all over social media. Finding ballots randomly in Michigan. And something about sharpie pens spoiling ballots in Arizona? I don't know.

Apparently there was a drop of 100K+ ballots in Michigan that went 100% for Biden.  That seems statistically implausible, but I tend to imagine that there was some sort of mundane sorting explanation rather than a massive conspiracy theory.

I would like to commend you for being consistently level-headed and reasonable.  You're an asset to the forum, and it would be nice to see more of your co-partisans with the same traits.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I'm getting a little annoyed about how much many of my friends are going full-in on rigged election conspiracy theories right now

Yeah I'm seeing this all over social media. Finding ballots randomly in Michigan. And something about sharpie pens spoiling ballots in Arizona? I don't know.

Apparently there was a drop of 100K+ ballots in Michigan that went 100% for Biden.  That seems statistically implausible, but I tend to imagine that there was some sort of mundane sorting explanation rather than a massive conspiracy theory.

It was a mistake (an extra 0 added to Biden's vote total in a county) that has now been corrected.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

How can Biden's margin be improving in PA but it has stayed on 85% of results in for so long?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

If EVERY news org called it, I find it hard to believe we could possibly lose it. Aren't we still waiting on a lot of votes in like California seats and such?

Going by NYT, here are some remaining seats that seem favored to go D: WA-8, CA-25, CA-34, CA-39, AZ-1, GA-7, MI-11, MN-2, NY-18, NY-19, NY-4, NY-3, VA-7, PA-17, IL-14, MI-5, PA-7, PA-8.

Ds should be ok in the House, though their majority will shrink

[Pericles]

Perdue down to 50.4% statewide.

My back of the napkin figures say if Biden pulls out Georgia, it should knock him under 50.

Biden has to figure out a bold strategy to get Georgians to give us the Senate.

Two Runoff's in Georgia with a unpopular incumbent in Loeffler and God knows what Trump does in the lame duck and if Mitch refuses to do stimulus before the special elections. It could be a perfect storm and the organizing effort in Atlanta has been amazing, I have a friend who does work out there (she's worked with Ossoff before) and I'd be very confident in GOTV for those two elections especially that you can registered new voters for that election by December 7th. What looked like a nightmare may turn into Biden/Harris Administration's favor. It would also be a test for Schumer and his leadership in the Senate.

Perdue outperforming Trump is very concerning though. Democrats can go 2/2, but it will require an absolutely massive effort.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The PA numbers are getting worse for Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How can Biden's margin be improving in PA but it has stayed on 85% of results in for so long?

Don't forget new votes are still coming to replace those that are being processed and reported.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

NyT:

Speaker Nancy Pelosi acknowledged a “challenging election” in a letter to Democrats, after multiple first-term House Democrats lost their seats to Republicans.

[Alben Barkley]

The PA numbers are getting worse for Trump.

Scranton Joe gonna pull through.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Why hasn't NC been called if it's 100% reporting?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

NyT:

Speaker Nancy Pelosi acknowledged a “challenging election” in a letter to Democrats, after multiple first-term House Democrats lost their seats to Republicans.

Yeah, I think it's time for her and Hoyer to step down.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Why hasn't NC been called if it's 100% reporting?

iirc it accepts late ballots postmarked by Election Day.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why hasn't NC been called if it's 100% reporting?

It's not officially 100%; we don't necessarily know how many late ballots there will be

[GeneralMacArthur]

Here's the uncalled House races via ABC.  I suppose the thinking is that we're still waiting on mail-in ballots for most of these, which are likely to favor Dems.  Dems need to win 10 to keep the House.

CA-34 (reporting error, but listed as likely D)

NJ-03 (55-44)
NH-02 (54-43)
NJ-07 (55-45)
ME-02 (54-46)
NH-01 (52-45)
NV-04 (51-46)
NV-03 (50-45)
VA-02 (51-47)
NY-18 (51-48)
NY-17 (47-44)
IL-17 (51-49)
VA-07 (51-49)
MI-11 (50-48)
MN-02 (48-46)
IA-03 (49-48)
CA-39 (50-50)
CA-48 (50-50)
IL-14 (50-50)
PA-08 (50-50)
IA-02 (50-50)
FL-27 (49-51)
NY-3 (49-51)
PA-17 (49-51)
PA-07 (49-51)
TX-23 (47-50)
MN-01 (46-49)
FL-26 (48-52)
IL-13 (46-54)
CA-50 (48-52)
CA-08 (47-53)
CA-42 (45-55)
CA-01 (45-55)
NY-22 (43-54)