2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Alcibiades]

Of course to us as election nerds who have followed the polling and predictions, Biden’s win (fingers crossed) will look underwhelming, but remember that it won’t to many (maybe most) Americans (a majority of whom thought Trump would win). Many Dems will be immensely relieved, while Republicans will be incredulous as to how their Dear Leader didn’t win in a landslide.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Are we supposed to get a big Georgia update right about now?

[It’s so Joever]

It’s over. Trump is probably going to win Georgia.
The numbers just aren’t there for Biden. That being said it will be close.
I just hope Perdue barely drops below 50%, we NEED that runoff.

[SevenEleven]

I hate to say this but I feel like how close this election ended up being plus how things went downballot probably ensures Biden doesn’t run for re-election if he comes out on top.

That and the fact he'll be 82.

After what happened, does anyone on here think Kamala Harris would win if she ran in 2024 to succeed Biden?

That depends on how things are going in 2024 and who she chooses as her VP will make a huge difference

It would not suprise me at all if her pick is either someone of Cuban ethnicity from Florida or Someone from the Midwest who can balance to ticket like Biden did for Obama in 2008

If Biden ends up being popular Haris will definitely benefit from that but a lot will depend on what she does over the next 4 years.

Don't want to count my chickens but if I'm her, I would pick Gov. Jared Polis of Colorado, who is also a former Congressman. Him and his Husband have children and it's great outreach to the LGBTQ+ community and that actually would help in Florida, plus he's also Jewish which helps in that state.

Sounds great until you get to the part where Florida voted twice to elect a racist ass bigot who crashed the economy and did nothing positive during his four years.

You can have that "doom" mentality but Biden failed going after the Latin vote and Harris wouldn't do that. Plus demographics change and don't underestimate an enthusiasm for a ticket like Harris/Polis, it can be real. I'm just thinking off the top of my head, newly elected Sen. Ben Ray Lujan would be another pick that comes up in my mind. But, I'll save that for a new thread once this is over where we can all be political junkies and predict the 2024 race.

Latinos like Biden more than Harris. Harris turns off Latinos. We'd be better off running HRC again than Harris.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

AP FINALLY gave Biden Michigan.


264-214.

[BudgieForce]

Are we supposed to get a big Georgia update right about now?

I believe so.

[It’s so Joever]

I hate to say this but I feel like how close this election ended up being plus how things went downballot probably ensures Biden doesn’t run for re-election if he comes out on top.

That and the fact he'll be 82.

After what happened, does anyone on here think Kamala Harris would win if she ran in 2024 to succeed Biden?

That depends on how things are going in 2024 and who she chooses as her VP will make a huge difference

It would not suprise me at all if her pick is either someone of Cuban ethnicity from Florida or Someone from the Midwest who can balance to ticket like Biden did for Obama in 2008

If Biden ends up being popular Haris will definitely benefit from that but a lot will depend on what she does over the next 4 years.

Don't want to count my chickens but if I'm her, I would pick Gov. Jared Polis of Colorado, who is also a former Congressman. Him and his Husband have children and it's great outreach to the LGBTQ+ community and that actually would help in Florida, plus he's also Jewish which helps in that state.

Sounds great until you get to the part where Florida voted twice to elect a racist ass bigot who crashed the economy and did nothing positive during his four years.

You can have that "doom" mentality but Biden failed going after the Latin vote and Harris wouldn't do that. Plus demographics change and don't underestimate an enthusiasm for a ticket like Harris/Polis, it can be real. I'm just thinking off the top of my head, newly elected Sen. Ben Ray Lujan would be another pick that comes up in my mind. But, I'll save that for a new thread once this is over where we can all be political junkies and predict the 2024 race.

Latinos like Biden more than Harris. Harris turns off Latinos.

Oh yeah, Latinos love Biden.
The 2020 results should make that obvious.

[politics_king]

It’s over. Trump is probably going to win Georgia.
The numbers just aren’t there for Biden. That being said it will be close.
I just hope Perdue barely drops below 50%, we NEED that runoff.

That will be the win in Georgia to get that to happen.

[Roronoa D. Law]

https://twitter.com/JustinGrayWSB/status/1324112940010770432?s=20

Current margin <60k

[SevenEleven]

I hate to say this but I feel like how close this election ended up being plus how things went downballot probably ensures Biden doesn’t run for re-election if he comes out on top.

That and the fact he'll be 82.

After what happened, does anyone on here think Kamala Harris would win if she ran in 2024 to succeed Biden?

That depends on how things are going in 2024 and who she chooses as her VP will make a huge difference

It would not suprise me at all if her pick is either someone of Cuban ethnicity from Florida or Someone from the Midwest who can balance to ticket like Biden did for Obama in 2008

If Biden ends up being popular Haris will definitely benefit from that but a lot will depend on what she does over the next 4 years.

Don't want to count my chickens but if I'm her, I would pick Gov. Jared Polis of Colorado, who is also a former Congressman. Him and his Husband have children and it's great outreach to the LGBTQ+ community and that actually would help in Florida, plus he's also Jewish which helps in that state.

Sounds great until you get to the part where Florida voted twice to elect a racist ass bigot who crashed the economy and did nothing positive during his four years.

You can have that "doom" mentality but Biden failed going after the Latin vote and Harris wouldn't do that. Plus demographics change and don't underestimate an enthusiasm for a ticket like Harris/Polis, it can be real. I'm just thinking off the top of my head, newly elected Sen. Ben Ray Lujan would be another pick that comes up in my mind. But, I'll save that for a new thread once this is over where we can all be political junkies and predict the 2024 race.

Latinos like Biden more than Harris. Harris turns off Latinos.

Oh yeah, Latinos love Biden.
The 2020 results should make that obvious.

Harris turned off voters in NM and RGV. Not Biden. Newsflash: these areas were strong D last time Biden was on the ticket.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'm getting a little annoyed about how much many of my friends are going full-in on rigged election conspiracy theories right now

[Fargobison]

GOP not coming to Trump's side...

https://twitter.com/IanSams/status/1324109632760123395

https://twitter.com/JNicholsonInDC/status/1324124024386015233

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't know if this relates to the rumored 6pm Georgia update.  I've also seen something saying 9pm.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324123312545517575

[Meclazine for Israel]

Just added AK (likely R) and AZ (likely D).

GA and PA trending hard towards Biden in the last update.

Taken out NC for now because....

"North Carolina won't be making updates to its vote total for more than a week"
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/live-blog/2020-11-04-trump-biden-election-results-n1246346/ncrd1246465#liveBlogHeader

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 67,000 (97% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 93,016 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~451,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 179,300 of them - (39.7%)

NV - Biden up by 7,647 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~194,200 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 93,300 of them - (48.0%)

GA - Biden down by 57,397 (94% counted)

Of the remaining ~308,400 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 183,000 of them - (59.3%)

PA - Biden down by 276,979 (85% counted)

Of the remaining ~1,074,500 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 675,600 of them - (62.9%)

AK - Biden down by 51,400 (56% counted)

Of the remaining ~135,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 93,200 of them - (69.0%)

Biden simply needs to win AZ and NV to win the Presidency with 270 EC votes.

The % of votes needed on the right by Biden in GA and PA are dropping with each update.

[politics_king]

https://twitter.com/JustinGrayWSB/status/1324112940010770432?s=20

Current margin <60k

Woo! Let's go!

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

I put the current AP map (which includes Arizona) into 270 to win, and it said Trump needs to win ALL of  PA, GA, NC, and NV.

[Alben Barkley]

God the irony of Biden getting 306 (exactly the same number Trump got in 2016) would just be too real. Almost would make up for not being the landslide we hoped for.

[Ancestral Republican]

I hate to say this but I feel like how close this election ended up being plus how things went downballot probably ensures Biden doesn’t run for re-election if he comes out on top.

That and the fact he'll be 82.

After what happened, does anyone on here think Kamala Harris would win if she ran in 2024 to succeed Biden?

That depends on how things are going in 2024 and who she chooses as her VP will make a huge difference

It would not suprise me at all if her pick is either someone of Cuban ethnicity from Florida or Someone from the Midwest who can balance to ticket like Biden did for Obama in 2008

If Biden ends up being popular Haris will definitely benefit from that but a lot will depend on what she does over the next 4 years.

Don't want to count my chickens but if I'm her, I would pick Gov. Jared Polis of Colorado, who is also a former Congressman. Him and his Husband have children and it's great outreach to the LGBTQ+ community and that actually would help in Florida, plus he's also Jewish which helps in that state.

Sounds great until you get to the part where Florida voted twice to elect a racist ass bigot who crashed the economy and did nothing positive during his four years.

You can have that "doom" mentality but Biden failed going after the Latin vote and Harris wouldn't do that. Plus demographics change and don't underestimate an enthusiasm for a ticket like Harris/Polis, it can be real. I'm just thinking off the top of my head, newly elected Sen. Ben Ray Lujan would be another pick that comes up in my mind. But, I'll save that for a new thread once this is over where we can all be political junkies and predict the 2024 race.

Latinos like Biden more than Harris. Harris turns off Latinos.

Oh yeah, Latinos love Biden.
The 2020 results should make that obvious.

I was so happy when he flipped Texas!

[It’s so Joever]

I'm getting a little annoyed about how much many of my friends are going full-in on rigged election conspiracy theories right now

Do they understand that rhetoric like that just inflamed the slowly opening gap between the two wings of the GOP?

[forsythvoter]

Ok, I'm not a political pundit so I can say this. It's looking pretty bleak for Trump. I hadn't realized GA still had additional mal-in ballots that were received yesterday but not processed until now. Biden may win this by a larger margin than WI.

https://twitter.com/JustinGrayWSB/status/1324112940010770432?s=20
Current margin <60k

[Horus]

I'm getting a little annoyed about how much many of my friends are going full-in on rigged election conspiracy theories right now

Sounds like you need better friends, no offense.

[MasterJedi]

I'm getting a little annoyed about how much many of my friends are going full-in on rigged election conspiracy theories right now

Do they understand that rhetoric like that just inflamed the slowly opening gap between the two wings of the GOP?

Hard for them to care when they've lived a fantasy for four years.

[MillennialModerate]

Most of the counties in GA with votes out are heavily Biden but they're not Fulton/Gwinnett size. It's going to be tight.

Stunned

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Random thought: with Ohio, Florida, and probably North Carolina going for Trump, there will be hardly any active win streaks left, even if you allow for one miss. MI, WI, and PA will have win streaks going back to 2008. That's it.

Nevada?

[politics_king]

Just added AK (likely R) and AZ (likely D).

GA and PA trending hard towards Biden in the last update.

Taken out NC for now because....

"North Carolina won't be making updates to its vote total for more than a week"
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/live-blog/2020-11-04-trump-biden-election-results-n1246346/ncrd1246465#liveBlogHeader

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 67,000 (97% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 93,016 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~451,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 179,300 of them - (39.7%)

NV - Biden up by 7,647 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~194,200 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 93,300 of them - (48.0%)

GA - Biden down by 57,397 (94% counted)

Of the remaining ~308,400 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 183,000 of them - (59.3%)

PA - Biden down by 276,979 (85% counted)

Of the remaining ~1,074,500 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 675,600 of them - (63.7%)

AK - Biden down by 51,400 (56% counted)

Of the remaining ~135,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 93,200 of them - (69.0%)

Biden simply needs to win AZ and NV to win the Presidency with 270 EC votes.

I feel confident right now. It'll be extremely close but this will make Thursday that much sweeter if Biden takes it tonight.