2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[VAR]

Biden up by only 2.4% in Nevada.

[Calthrina950]

From a local Atlanta reporter:

https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1327340578946904066

I'm just noticing this now, and this is truly an astonishing story. An elderly white woman in Georgia, who has been voting in every presidential election for almost 80 years, and is a lifelong Democrat. It's ironic that the first President she voted for-Roosevelt-was the President under which this year's victor (that she also voted for), Biden, was born. I also saw a story on CBS News a few days before the election about an elderly woman, living in Texas or Arizona I believe, who traveled several hours so that she could vote this year. That woman too, is a lifelong Democrat, having first voted for Harry Truman in 1948. These individuals are living relics of a seemingly distant past who will soon be gone from us.

[VAR]

Also, where is TheLaRocca? He should come back and accept his accolades.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Biden up by only 2.4% in Nevada.

Did most of the remaining Clark County ballots split 50/50? That's surprising.

How much is still left to count?

[BudgieForce]

Biden up by only 2.4% in Nevada.

Did most of the remaining Clark County ballots split 50/50? That's surprising.

How much is still left to count?

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1327633569552818177

So its seems like Nevada is almost done counting.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Biden up by only 2.4% in Nevada.

Did most of the remaining Clark County ballots split 50/50? That's surprising.

How much is still left to count?

Mildly surprising, yes, but keep in mind that Clark isn't that Democratic.  It's just that the vast majority of the state population lives there, so even a modest win in Clark is enough to win statewide.

[Annatar]

I would note regarding Nevada that it is one of the more Hispanic states in the country and so any swing against Trump among whites in Nevada could have been offset by gains among Hispanics in a way that was not possible in whiter states.

[Panda Express]

Yeah, Washoe is 22% Hispanic while Clark is 29% Hispanic so slight erosion among that group would explain why Washoe swung a few points towards Biden while Clark actually swung a point towards Trump

[Skill and Chance]

Looks like Dems may be peaking in the Southwest (save for CO)?  Remember when we were all worried that Dems were doomed to 2 decades of EV/PV splits and being totally shut out of the senate with a map like this?

Good reminder not to just extrapolate trends indefinitely!

[wbrocks67]

Popular vote update, per Cook tracker:

Joe Biden 78,629,640 (50.9%)
Donald Trump 73,063,371 (47.3%)

Biden lead is now 5,566,269 (3.6%)

[lfromnj]

I would note regarding Nevada that it is one of the more Hispanic states in the country and so any swing against Trump among whites in Nevada could have been offset by gains among Hispanics in a way that was not possible in whiter states.

Also its quite working class even among the whites so no major D swings.

[Skill and Chance]

Popular vote update, per Cook tracker:

Joe Biden 78,629,640 (50.9%)
Donald Trump 73,063,371 (47.3%)

Biden lead is now 5,566,269 (3.6%)

The late counted stuff appears to have been more evenly split than expected?  NY absentees will surely put Biden ahead of Obama 2012 (3.9%) once they are done, right?

[wbrocks67]

Popular vote update, per Cook tracker:

Joe Biden 78,629,640 (50.9%)
Donald Trump 73,063,371 (47.3%)

Biden lead is now 5,566,269 (3.6%)

The late counted stuff appears to have been more evenly split than expected?  NY absentees will surely put Biden ahead of Obama 2012 (3.9%) once they are done, right?

No, most of it seems Dem as expected. Places like CA and NJ were expected to have more of an R-trend in the later ballots bc of the way things were counted this year. NY absentees seem to be breaking strongly Dem as expected, which should bump his lead up considerably.

There also Dem-leaning mail ins to count (quite a chunk left) in places like OH, MS, MD, IL, etc which with NY should take Biden to 7 million+

[Annatar]

I have always thought Biden would win by 4% or a bit more, Clinton had a slight lead over Trump the morning after election day and she won by 2.1%, so she gained roughly 2% over the vote county post election day, Biden had a 2% lead the morning after the election, so if he gains like Clinton he should win by 4%.

[wbrocks67]

I have always thought Biden would win by 4% or a bit more, Clinton had a slight lead over Trump the morning after election day and she won by 2.1%, so she gained roughly 2% over the vote county post election day, Biden had a 2% lead the morning after the election, so if he gains like Clinton he should win by 4%.

Yeah, Nate Silver estimates Biden will likely end up with ~4.4%

[Alben Barkley]

Also, where is TheLaRocca? He should come back and accept his accolades.

He was right about rust belt states being close, but wrong about being CLOSER than sun belt states like AZ, GA, etc.

[wbrocks67]

Is there any word on when OH is going to count the rest of its ballots? We're past the period of them even accepting late mail ins.

[Mike88]

Is there any word on when OH is going to count the rest of its ballots? We're past the period of them even accepting late mail ins.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

The first results on election night (absentee ballots) will probably skew Democratic. Then, we’ll probably see a red shift as Republican-leaning Election Day votes are counted. Finally, the last vote dump on Nov. 14-18 (more absentee ballots) could benefit Democrats.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think people are reading too much into the slight hispanic swing this election.

a) Hillary did really well among hispanics and every election is a little different.

b) A lot of hispanics work in jobs hurt by the pandemic/shutdown.  And even though this is Trump's fault, he was seen as more business friend (open the economy) than Biden.  A lot of people in the Las Vegas service industry or Miami tourism might have been concerned that if Democrats had complete control they'd try to shut down the economy.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Any word as to when New York is gonna be finished counting? Idk why but seeing 55-42 kinda bothers me (in more of a weird sense, not a doomer sense) and I would like to know when they finish counting.

[American2020]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLskRpFYw_U

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

trump at a plurality in wicomico lol

[iceman]

What's up with Hardin county, Illinois? No results ever since the election night. Practically 0 votes counted and it's unshaded in all maps.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

trump at a plurality in wicomico lol

Biden's been a strong performer in MD more generally. The Trump Coalition is uniquely weak there.

[n1240]

Any word as to when New York is gonna be finished counting? Idk why but seeing 55-42 kinda bothers me (in more of a weird sense, not a doomer sense) and I would like to know when they finish counting.

Varies by county, NYC seems to have been faster compared to the primary this time around but it seems like many places will be done by end of next week or just before Thanksgiving.