CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Can't wait til we win these races so the 2010/2014 Narrativ would cease

Rs don't have Ryan, Walker or Kasich, that's why it's gonna be very it's gonna be very hard to pull off another 2014

[One Term Floridian]

https://twitter.com/chris_notcapn/status/1434006501849542659

Looks like instead of coalescing around a Doug Jones tier candidate (of which they definitely had options), the CA GOP has instead picked a Ray Moore tier candidate lmao

[wbrocks67]

It's almost as if Elder was designed as a joke to make the recall pretty easy for Newsom. I would not be surprised if this wakes up Dems even more an Newsoms margin is pretty great.

[darklordoftech]

Do Republicans see this as a blown opportunity?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Larry Elder said slave owners should get Reparations, but Native American population got Per Capita for Indian Reservation land

[wbrocks67]

Do Republicans see this as a blown opportunity?

I can't imagine. Even if they had a good candidate, we're still talking about a D+24 state here.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 5,730,338
Dems: 3,051,561 (53.3%)
Reps: 1,399,655 (24.4%)
Ind/Other: 1,279,122 (22.3%)

Turnout = Dems (29%), Reps (26%), Ind/Other (20%)

Small update

Total ballots returned = 5,890,491
Dems 3,124,920 (53.1%)
Reps 1,448,306 (24.6%)
Ind/Other 1,317,265 (22.3%)

Turnout = Dems (30%), Reps (27%), Ind/Other (20%)

[Telesquare]

The American Independent Party endorsed Larry Elder.

They seem to function like a California equivalent of the New York Conservative Party where they endorse the most Right wing Republicans.
https://mobile.twitter.com/SovernNation/status/1425686085384871941
And then their chairman died. RIP
https://mobile.twitter.com/WilliamSaturn/status/1432162075565043713

[Telesquare]

https://mobile.twitter.com/lawindsor/status/1435274180878999552

[Telesquare]

A former Young Turk is campaigning with Larry Elder.
https://mobile.twitter.com/VenturaReport/status/1435043871025623042

[GeorgiaModerate]

Do Republicans see this as a blown opportunity?

I'm not a Republican so can't speak personally to it, but my take is that the emergence of Elder as the leading R in the race has turned it from one that was a long shot for R's into one where they have no shot whatsoever.  So in that sense it's a blown opportunity, but it was a pretty unlikely opportunity for them even with a good candidate.

[wbrocks67]

Larry Elder is the best thing that could've ever happened to the Newsom campaign.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/stevekornacki/status/1435230609476050945?s=21

[Roll Roons]

Larry Elder is the best thing that could've ever happened to the Newsom campaign.

Yeah, I think whatever chance the recall had of succeeding went out the window when he emerged as the leading alternative.

[wbrocks67]

Larry Elder is the best thing that could've ever happened to the Newsom campaign.

Yeah, I think whatever chance the recall had of succeeding went out the window when he emerged as the leading alternative.

I have family here in Pennsylvania who even said "can you believe that crazy guy in CA trying to be governor?"

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/stevekornacki/status/1435230609476050945?s=21

I wasn't actually aware the polling picture was this clear in 2003, so Davis losing the recall was anything but a surprise. Under other circumstances, the dude would have already lost reelection in 2002, but the GOP nominated a right winger instead of LA Mayor Riordan, a moderate. Riordan or, if he ran, Schwarzenegger, would have defeated Davis with ease.

[DrScholl]

In 2002 Davis ran a brilliant campaign to make sure that Riordan would lose the primary. He ran ads saying that Riordan was trying to be all things to all people and pretty much made him look like an indecisive flake trying to please Republicans and Democrats.

[Holmes]

Larry Elder is the best thing that could've ever happened to the Newsom campaign.

Yeah, I think whatever chance the recall had of succeeding went out the window when he emerged as the leading alternative.

Not that they ever had a chance of winning, but Republicans really did their best to lose this one.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Larry Elder is the best thing that could've ever happened to the Newsom campaign.

Yeah, I think whatever chance the recall had of succeeding went out the window when he emerged as the leading alternative.

Elder really helped nationalize the election, I think. That’s not good for the GOP in California.

[BoiseBoy]

Do Republicans see this as a blown opportunity?

Yes. Elder should not have entered and Republicans should have coalesced around Faulconer. I don’t think he would’ve won but it would’ve been closer. Nationalizing the race was a horrible idea.

[Cyrusman]

Do Republicans see this as a blown opportunity?

I'm not a Republican so can't speak personally to it, but my take is that the emergence of Elder as the leading R in the race has turned it from one that was a long shot for R's into one where they have no shot whatsoever.  So in that sense it's a blown opportunity, but it was a pretty unlikely opportunity for them even with a good candidate.

Newsom and the dems would have done to Faulkner, or Cox what they did to Elder if either of those two were the front runner. just try to label them as some right wind guy and frame the recall as democrat vs Republican.
Do you really think anything would’ve been different? Elder was just the Ginnypig

[wbrocks67]

Do Republicans see this as a blown opportunity?

I'm not a Republican so can't speak personally to it, but my take is that the emergence of Elder as the leading R in the race has turned it from one that was a long shot for R's into one where they have no shot whatsoever.  So in that sense it's a blown opportunity, but it was a pretty unlikely opportunity for them even with a good candidate.

Newsom and the dems would have done to Faulkner, or Cox what they did to Elder if either of those two were the front runner. just try to label them as some right wind guy and frame the recall as democrat vs Republican.
Do you really think anything would’ve been different? Elder was just the Ginnypig

I mean sure.. to an extent. But Elder has really taken this thing and made it his own because his beliefs and things he has said are SO fringe

[Senator Spark]

Final Prediction:



Oppose - 52%
Support - 48%

[Greedo punched first]

Final Prediction:



Oppose - 52%
Support - 48%

What might the county map look like on the replacement question?

[Telesquare]

Final Prediction:



Oppose - 52%
Support - 48%

What might the county map look like on the replacement question?

Faulconer wins San Diego county