CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Sir Mohamed]

Faulconer is pretty clearly telegraphing a run. Going to be satisfying to watch CAGOP's golden boy get absolutely clobbered

He'd be a decent candidate for GOP and in a Biden midterm, I could see him do better than Cox in 2018. Maybe even flipping OC. Will he make it really competitive? Nah.

[Sir Mohamed]

Newsom is more likely to face a credible challenger to his left than a credible Republican, but they would fail too. He isn't going anywhere, and it would be a waste of time to even try (although I welcome it).

Newsom has always been fairly progressive without angering more centrist Dems. He's not comparable to someone like Cuomo, who's more likely to lose to a primary opponent rather than a GOPer (neither will happen though). Unless a completely fractured field, the CA GOP is still strong enough to overcome any potential Dem challenger to Newsom to make it into the runoff as long as their leading candidate gets at least 20% of the vote in a jungle primary.

[Sir Mohamed]

The CA GOP is dead as the dodo in statewide races for the foreseeable future. Faulconer would have been a good candidate 10-15 years ago, and still is compared to their bench, but he's not going anywhere.

And I doubt waiting to 2026 would change much for the better. By then, he'll be out of office for too long to be any news.

[Sir Mohamed]

The CA GOP is dead as the dodo in statewide races for the foreseeable future. Faulconer would have been a good candidate 10-15 years ago, and still is compared to their bench, but he's not going anywhere.

And I doubt waiting to 2026 would change much for the better. By then, he'll be out of office for too long to be any news.

A strong run by Faulconer, a socially liberal and climate conscious republican, would help the GOP brand though and potentially help some congress and state legislative candidates.

I think it depends where the national party goes after Trump, which I'm not too optimistic about. The electorate has changed and became more partisan.

Btw, Arnold's decisive win in 2006, when the electorate was less polarized and the CA GOP in better shape, didn't help other candidates much either.

[Sir Mohamed]

Hot take: Faulconer will finish 3rd in the jungle primary behind Newsom and some crazy nutjob, who will go on the represent the GOP in the GE. Either way, Newsom will secure a 2nd term easily.

[Sir Mohamed]

Comparisons with Gray Davis are meaningless. Not just are circumstances different, the CA of 2021 isn't the CA of the late 1990s and early 2000s.

[Sir Mohamed]

Would Faulconer have a better chance if he ran as an indy and/or for one of the lower statewide offices? What would be his ceiling there?

At this point California is so Titanium D that this election is unwinnable for any Republican. My guess is that, at best he manages to lose by high single digits if he is lucky.

I don't see him making it into the runoff if runs as Indy. Neither are some lower statewide offices more in reach than the governorship. Just not happening.

I stand by my prediction he'll finish 3rd in the jungle primary 4 gov after Newsom and some crazy GOPer. Potentially Cox again. Faulconer has no base other than a few "former Orange County Republicans" or Romney-Clinton voters. He's for sure not making much inroads with Dems as Newsom is, contrary to impression in this forum, still pretty popular. At the same time, he's too moderate for Trumpers, whom are still a few million in all of CA.

[Sir Mohamed]

Several of these 1 million signatures will likely be kicked out, so they need more like 2 million before March have enough valid ones. That's not too likely. I dunno why Faulconer and allies are so obsessed now that we're more than half way through Newsom's term. Just run 2022 if you think you can win (spoiler: you won't).

[Sir Mohamed]

A question just popped up in my head.

If the recall fails and Faulconer loses next year, would that make him the first person to lose 2 statewide elections 2 years in a row? Or would the only way that'd be accurate is if Newsom is recalled and Faulconer doesn't lead in the replacement question

Tom Bradley lost both the 1982 and 1986 gubernatorial elections.

[Sir Mohamed]

Will the gubernatorial runoff more likely be D vs R or D vs D?

In 2022? I think Newsom faces a GOPer in the November election, but I'm not convinced yet that it will be Faulconer. I think he will come in a close 3rd in the jungle primary next to a more right-wing GOPer like Cox or Grenell. If a serious Dem jumps in, it's a tossup between Newsom vs. D or Newsom vs. R and depends on whether a single GOPer can get to 2nd place by consolidating the 30-35% of the R electorate. With a 2nd Dem, the GOP can hardly afford to split their votes in the jungle primary.

[Sir Mohamed]

Grenell must have terrible political instincts if he actually thinks he has a slight chance to win in the state of California in the 2020s. The recall probably won't succeed and if so, would elect another Democrat. Grenell may eke out Faulconer in a 2022 jungle primary for the second spot, but Newsom or any other serious Democrat would absolutely destroy this Trump buddy.

If Grennell and Faulconer are the only serious GOPers running in a primary, Grennell will absolutely top him. I have predicted a more right-winger to beat Faulconer, but John Cox is also in the race and may split the conservative vote. But I agree Grennell, a Trump lackey, would have zero chance against Newsom.

[Sir Mohamed]

The recall was always a longshot at best. Newsom is going to survive and win reelection next year. GOPers picked the wrong fight.

[Sir Mohamed]

Just realized there's Wikipedia election article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_California_gubernatorial_recall_election

[Sir Mohamed]

Newsom is pretty good in messaging by tying the recall to the CA GOP, which is toxic with a majority of voters in this state. If the recall is more a referendum on a potential GOP governor, it's going to fail badly. It will anyway, but I don't think it will be particularly close. For sure wasted time and money for Faulconer and 2018 losing candidate Cox.

[Sir Mohamed]

I really dunno why the GOP is putting so much effort into this and why there are multiple candidates seeking a run in a Titanium blue state with a gov who has his party united behind him. Do they think it's still 2003 or what?

[Sir Mohamed]

What happens if you vote for the recall but for no gubernatorial replacement?

I would assume the 1st question is still counted. Interestingly, the total number of votes in the 2003 recall almost match each other.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL... let them argue over whom owns the inevitable defeat.

[Sir Mohamed]

Well, every Democratic governor not named Edmund Gerald Brown of the last 75 years has faced a recall election.

Yup, it's kind of stunning there were so few Dem govs in the past 100 years, while Dems have controlled the state legislature ever since the 1970s.

[Sir Mohamed]

Cox is even more ridiculous than back in '18, lol. This recall will fail very badly and I enjoy watching these GOP clowns get slaughtered.

[Sir Mohamed]

This kind of crap is the GOP's future. The scary part here is that she could be elected in another state that's more conservative than deep blue CA.

[Sir Mohamed]

Caitlyn Jenner said in her CNN interview today that she didn't even vote in 2020. For anything.

Now sis...

Didn't stop Zachary Taylor from being elected prez...

Kidding aside, the CA GOP clowncar is wasting time and money for something that's going to fail by at least 14 pts.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1407844403490824194

[Sir Mohamed]

Newsom is gonna handily defeat the recall and the map will look identical to the 2018 governors race (With the possible exception of San Bernardino & Merced flipping against him).

Schools & colleges are planning for 100% on-campus learning for the fall, music venues are announcing concerts & festivals on an hourly basis, theme parks & restaurants are packed, 2/3 of the state are vaccinated in some way, case/death rates are around record lows & the French Laundry already feels like ancient history. And we don't even know when the recall is taking place!

Honestly, if it wasn't for every news story blanketing every breath he makes as related to this, I doubt most Californians would even know what or why Newsom is facing a recall.

I agree. Perhaps Orange will also vote for the recall itsself. That said, Newsom will again win Orange and Bernardine counties in next year's regular election, which he will win with ease.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/steffdaz/status/1410709767366930433

Sept. 15th headlines: "Gavin Newsom wins California recall election"

... and John Cox thinks he'll finally be elected gov in 2022.

[Sir Mohamed]

Also, the California system for recalling officials is stupid. Wisconsin's is much better, even if it didn't work against Scott Walker.

Recalls in general are questionable. At least with such a low quorum for ballot qualification.