NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[Not Me, Us]

It's so weird to see that when Yang ran a national campaign just now (though I admittedly say "just now" in relative terms, because holy hell, I can't believe it's already been a year since the primaries ended), he was seen as being a member of the party's progressive wing, given his literal support for Bernie back in 2016 & his having ran on what's (relative to the rest of the country) a hard swipe to progressive economics vis-a-vis a literal UBI, yet now that he's running for Mayor of New York, he's generously considered the center-left moderate of the race.

I suppose a good question that arises from this observation is whether it says more about where Yang's actually been this whole time or about any particular ideological uniqueness on the NYC Dems' part?

Yang's very good at seeming progressive while not actually being progressive. While UBI seems like a progressive policy, and it certainly can be, Yang's version is not. His plan is to basically defund all other forms of welfare to fund it.. Yang has always been to the economic right of most Democrats, he's just good at hiding it.

[KaiserDave]

I reject the characterization of Yang as a secret libertarian, I think that’s unfair and I’m not sure the description y’all have for his UBI plan is entirely accurate. But I think Babeuf’s point about Torres and the consultants holds some weight. It’s funny because like Yang, Torres supported Bernie in 2016, and was even a delegate!

[Babeuf]

https://twitter.com/dianne4nyc/status/1371121803960197123?s=21

Didn’t see this one coming, anyone have any insight on what would lead Epstein to do this? Had previously seen him as a pretty mainstream progressive Dem and would have thought he’d go with Stringer.

[KaiserDave]

What an unfortunate name he has

Edit: But it looks like Diane has some momentum, I still am highly reluctant to rank her though

[brucejoel99]

What an unfortunate name he has

I was literally just gonna say, I'm sure he's a great Assemblymember & all, but ngl, his name is right up there with 'Jeffrey Weinstein' as being a "name that makes you raise your eyebrows for a second."

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Let’s go Dianne!!!

[brucejoel99]

Either a full-on RCV cross-endorsement or another organizational co-endorsement (as the Freelancers Union did) is incoming (or, alternatively, maybe Garcia hasn't liked her recent polling numbers & fundraising reports so she's dropping out & endorsing Yang?)

https://twitter.com/TweetBenMax/status/1371171709835997190

[KaiserDave]

Either a full-on RCV cross-endorsement or another organizational co-endorsement (as the Freelancers Union did) is incoming (or, alternatively, maybe Garcia hasn't liked her recent polling numbers & fundraising reports so she's dropping out & endorsing Yang?)

https://twitter.com/TweetBenMax/status/1371171709835997190

Very interesting stuff. Thanks!

[KaiserDave]

I keep noticing all these candidates are in my neighborhood. Garcia was here recently and I of course met Stringer, who pulled up right in front of where I live.


Now, on Diane. I like her and she's got something to her. She's definitely not going away. But...I can't vote for someone to run the biggest city in the country without any government experience. The next Mayor will need experience shepherding legislation and implementing change in the vast and indecipherable bureaucracy. She ain't it. She's definitely more experienced than Yang, but I ain't voting for Yang.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Yang was called a Libertarian-in-secret for a reason during the primaries. His support for cutting social security and unemployment insurance for UBI, his initial astroturfing on 4chan, and the fact that he is a wealthy multimillionaire should have been clear signals—moreso than John Dule stanning him.

It was blatantly obvious, and now the water that has been treaded beforehand and through meme magic will get Yang through with both low-information bums and small business owners over the progressive candidate.

I don't know why, but is amuses me that '4chan presence = libertarian'



Also, it feels like every day there's a new duel-candidate event which brings another day of "Will they or won't they?" speculation. Such is IRV dynamics.

[brucejoel99]

Either a full-on RCV cross-endorsement or another organizational co-endorsement (as the Freelancers Union did) is incoming (or, alternatively, maybe Garcia hasn't liked her recent polling numbers & fundraising reports so she's dropping out & endorsing Yang?)

https://twitter.com/TweetBenMax/status/1371171709835997190

UPDATE: it's not the bolded.

https://twitter.com/TweetBenMax/status/1371288801943957510

[America Needs R'hllor]

Insane thread here
https://twitter.com/danarubinstein/status/1364695297209810947
NYPD's budget is $11 bil, nearly 90% of which is salaries & pensions — cutting it by 30% without reducing police numbers is mathematically impossible (and, frankly, a 30% cut to cops is going to cause a crime spike that will drive more residents & businesses into the suburbs, exacerbating the budget problem).

I keep coming back to this whenever someone mentions Morales. A honestly disqualifying Twitter-activist tier answer, the type of rhetoric that actively harms Democrats everywhere.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

It's almost like every candidate in this race has one fatal flaw or disqualifying answer

[KaiserDave]

It's almost like every candidate in this race has one fatal flaw or disqualifying answer

Except Scott

[Sir Mohamed]

It's almost like every candidate in this race has one fatal flaw or disqualifying answer

Yup, neither impresses me either, tbh.

[KaiserDave]

Garcia and Morales got matching funds, so they are definitely staying in. Everyone who doesn't have it at this point is pretty much dead in the water.

[Mr. Matt]

What an unfortunate name he has

There's always Dick Swett and his late in-law Timber Dick.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Crain's New York is claiming Ray McGuire won a poll, but it's behind a paywall and I can't find crosstabs on it.

Update: Appears to be a name recognition poll amongst Crain's Democratic-voting subscribers. Really a stretch to say he "topped a poll".

[brucejoel99]

Either a full-on RCV cross-endorsement or another organizational co-endorsement (as the Freelancers Union did) is incoming (or, alternatively, maybe Garcia hasn't liked her recent polling numbers & fundraising reports so she's dropping out & endorsing Yang?)

https://twitter.com/TweetBenMax/status/1371171709835997190

UPDATE: it's not the bolded.

https://twitter.com/TweetBenMax/status/1371288801943957510

Further update: it was just them announcing that they supported each other on a matter of a particular policy. In any event, presumably not something you would've seen in the pre-RCV days.

https://twitter.com/TweetBenMax/status/1371488066540597256

[brucejoel99]

Crain's New York is claiming Ray McGuire won a poll, but it's behind a paywall and I can't find crosstabs on it.

Update: Appears to be a name recognition poll amongst Crain's Democratic-voting subscribers. Really a stretch to say he "topped a poll".

It's honestly hilarious watching Wall Street & big business (&, thus, pro-Wall Street & pro-big business outlets) try & push him when it's been blatantly obvious for a while now that he'd be lucky to even get 10% in the primary.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Crain's New York is claiming Ray McGuire won a poll, but it's behind a paywall and I can't find crosstabs on it.

Update: Appears to be a name recognition poll amongst Crain's Democratic-voting subscribers. Really a stretch to say he "topped a poll".

It's honestly hilarious watching Wall Street & big business (&, thus, pro-Wall Street & pro-big business outlets) try & push him when it's been blatantly obvious for a while now that he'd be lucky to even get 10% in the primary.

I like him, but, yeah, it's kinda obvious he hasn't landed. I'm surprised a bunch of candidates haven't dropped out yet, honestly. Namely McGuire and Menchaca.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Crain's New York is claiming Ray McGuire won a poll, but it's behind a paywall and I can't find crosstabs on it.

Update: Appears to be a name recognition poll amongst Crain's Democratic-voting subscribers. Really a stretch to say he "topped a poll".

It's honestly hilarious watching Wall Street & big business (&, thus, pro-Wall Street & pro-big business outlets) try & push him when it's been blatantly obvious for a while now that he'd be lucky to even get 10% in the primary.

I like him, but, yeah, it's kinda obvious he hasn't landed. I'm surprised a bunch of candidates haven't dropped out yet, honestly. Namely McGuire and Menchaca.

I still hoping beyond hope Menchaca can pull out a little

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Crain's New York is claiming Ray McGuire won a poll, but it's behind a paywall and I can't find crosstabs on it.

Update: Appears to be a name recognition poll amongst Crain's Democratic-voting subscribers. Really a stretch to say he "topped a poll".

It's honestly hilarious watching Wall Street & big business (&, thus, pro-Wall Street & pro-big business outlets) try & push him when it's been blatantly obvious for a while now that he'd be lucky to even get 10% in the primary.

I like him, but, yeah, it's kinda obvious he hasn't landed. I'm surprised a bunch of candidates haven't dropped out yet, honestly. Namely McGuire and Menchaca.

I still hoping beyond hope Menchaca can pull out a little

Morales is getting all of his possible voters, no? Sure he'll get some 3rd/4th place votes, but, that's if he even stays in.

[KaiserDave]

Brucejoel's point about big business/banks pushing McGuire is correct, and seeing him get 6% in the first round will be funny indeed. McGuire was hopeless so long as Adams was running, and Adams was always going to run.

As for Menchaca, he is hopeless and will go nowhere. He won't make it to primary day and if he did he'd be lucky to get 1%. I find him woefully unprepared for the Mayoralty.

[KaiserDave]

Okay here comes the KaiserDave NYC Mayor 2021 update.


Frontrunners
Scott Stringer, Eric Adams, Andrew Yang
Competitors
Maya Wiley
Periphery of Competition
Diane Morales, Kathryn Garcia, Shaun Donovan, Ray McGuire
Stragglers
Carlos Menchaca, Art Chang



So, notes.

1. I don't buy Wiley being ahead of Stringer, not now, and definitely not in the long term. One poll from Memerson doesn't convince me of anything. And in the long term, Stringer's far superior fundraising, organization, and infrastructure will have no trouble kicking Wiley down the road. I will admit however that it's clear that Wiley is in a class of her own above McGuire, and so I've noted that.

2. It's pretty clear who has a chance at this point in the race and who doesn't, the bottom feeders category isn't necessary anymore. Most of them will be out of the race in a month.

3. I think it's clear where the race stands at this point. Yang leads Adams who leads Stringer who leads Wiley, and below Wiley is Morales, Donovan, McGuire, and Garcia battling it out. Everyone else at this point is frankly, meaningless.

4. Who do I think is most likely to exit the pack of those four? I gotta say Morales. She has the second largest amount of volunteers, just qualified for matching funds, and could very much take the left lane, and while she remains to have <1% chance at actually winning this, I suspect she could put up a strong showing.

Here's my prediction of the first round, to be updated, and based on my gut feeling and the data we have.

Andrew Yang: 26%
Eric Adams: 19%
Scott Stringer: 18%
Maya Wiley: 10%
Diane Morales: 8%
Shaun Donovan: 7%
Ray McGuire: 6%
Kathryn Garcia: 4%
Other: 1-2%

I have no idea what future rounds would look like. It's totally unpredictable in my view!