NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[Babeuf]

Lots of positive sounds / endorsements from left-wing electeds to the Stringer rollout. He endorsed many of them in their campaigns against IDC incumbents in 2018 and has positioned himself increasingly to the left in recent years.

Yuh-Line Niou, Robert Jackson, Jessica Ramos, Julia Salazar, and Alessandra Biaggi endorsed right away. Salazar is a DSA member / endorsee and the others are decisively on the left of the legislative caucuses.

[Babeuf]

Bowman endorsing Stringer, following other left electeds. Nice get for him.

[Babeuf]

There are efforts to stop RCV from being implemented from parts of the Council and via lawsuit. If it is stopped from being implemented, that could make a big difference in how this primary plays out.

[Babeuf]

There are efforts to stop RCV from being implemented from parts of the Council and via lawsuit. If it is stopped from being implemented, that could make a big difference in how this primary plays out.

I didn't know that...wow. Bad news for mid tier candidates trying to get a leg up.

Yeah, I find it all absolutely ridiculous. The city voted on RCV and over 70% supported it (albeit on very low turnout)! Very anti-democratic impulse on the part of the Council opposition.

[Babeuf]

Let's update the chart shall we


Frontrunners
Scott Stringer, Eric Adams, Shaun Donovan
Competitors
Maya Wiley, Max Rose, Andrew Yang, Ray McGuire
Stragglers
Diane Morales, Loree Sutton, Carlos Menchaca, Kathryn Garcia, Christine Quinn
Bottom Feeders
Eddie Cullen, Aaron Foldenauer, Quanda Francis, Max Kaplan, Julia Qing Reaves, Joycelyn Taylor


As always, potential but undeclared candidates are italicized

Good chart. Largely agree but personally would move Donovan down one level and Yang up a level. Might move Rose down one level also.

Yang would have the celebrity factor and immediately be the center of press attention if he entered, especially since none of the other candidates has really established themselves yet. This could really help him (Trump 2015) or not (Weiner 2013, although Yang presumably won't have the same issues as Weiner lol). He's not my preferred choice at all, but would be a very interesting experiment if he did run.

[Babeuf]

Menchaca is my councilman, and I think he'd be great, but I doubt he'll get far here. Assuming he doesn't surprise here, I think he would be a good fit for NY-7, either as a primary challenge or successor when Nydia Velazquez retires.

I could see him potentially succeeding her but he won't challenge her in a primary - they're allies and have a good relationship.

[Babeuf]

https://twitter.com/j_remy_green/status/1339249896629686274

Good news for RCV in the legal challenge against its implementation!

[Babeuf]

Will have to see how he campaigns and fleshes out his policy platform but think he's middle of the pack for me right now, certainly above Adams, Rose, and McGuire.

[Babeuf]

https://twitter.com/tweetbenmax/status/1353169589451042816?s=21

Gustavo Rivera endorses Stringer #1 and Morales #2. Important left wing state senator.

[Babeuf]

The only endorsement I Care about is the DSA.

They're probably gonna endorse Morales, with an outside chance of Stringer? I'm not sure.

Morales - some chance. No chance they endorse Stringer, although many members will rank him in their top 5.

My guess is that DSA won’t endorse. They won’t see enough upside or a strong enough candidate to get behind.

[Babeuf]

The only endorsement I Care about is the DSA.

They're probably gonna endorse Morales, with an outside chance of Stringer? I'm not sure.

Morales - some chance. No chance they endorse Stringer, although many members will rank him in their top 5.

My guess is that DSA won’t endorse. They won’t see enough upside or a strong enough candidate to get behind.

I bet they'll give a list of 3-5 candidates and tell people to rank them at the top of their list. It prevents the DSA from throwing down a hard commitment on any imperfect candidate, it absolves them of any responsibility, and it shows they are committed to electoral reform.

It’s certainly possible. If they do, I don’t think Stringer will make the list.

I do expect there to be a heavy DSA focus on council races this time around, much more so than the mayoral race. There are a large amount of open seats, so all to play for this year.

[Babeuf]

Jabari Brisport (socialist state senator) endorses Morales #1 and Stringer #2.

https://twitter.com/JabariBrisport/status/1370023406167539712
https://twitter.com/JabariBrisport/status/1370023513919131649

[Babeuf]

https://twitter.com/jccoltin/status/1370917121878859779?s=21

Yang joining forces with the most establishment / (relatively) right wing major Manhattan DA candidate. Think he’s clearly positioning himself on the right of the NYC Dems at this point, with some idiosyncrasies.

[Babeuf]

It's so weird to see that when Yang ran a national campaign just now (though I admittedly say "just now" in relative terms, because holy hell, I can't believe it's already been a year since the primaries ended), he was seen as being a member of the party's progressive wing, given his literal support for Bernie back in 2016 & his having ran on what's (relative to the rest of the country) a hard swipe to progressive economics vis-a-vis a literal UBI, yet now that he's running for Mayor of New York, he's generously considered the center-left moderate of the race.

I suppose a good question that arises from this observation is whether it says more about where Yang's actually been this whole time or about any particular ideological uniqueness on the NYC Dems' part?

Not entirely sure since I don’t really understand what makes him tick but he’s gotten very close to Torres and some of his consultants are ex-Bloomberg so that could explain some of it. Don’t know if they’re driving it or if he chose them because he agrees with them though.

[Babeuf]

One hope is that we get a very progressive council after the primaries (possible with the open seats and DSA/WFP/general activist energy around the council campaigns) and that will shift Yang's governing posture.

He should be more malleable and open to left wing initiatives than Adams would be, if there is a progressive council, but who knows.

[Babeuf]

https://twitter.com/dianne4nyc/status/1371121803960197123?s=21

Didn’t see this one coming, anyone have any insight on what would lead Epstein to do this? Had previously seen him as a pretty mainstream progressive Dem and would have thought he’d go with Stringer.

[Babeuf]

Not for the mayoral election but didn’t think it was worth starting a new topic - AOC endorses Lander for Comptroller. Fingers crossed he can beat Corey!

[Babeuf]

Scott is amazing as usual.

Unfortunately nobody cares about any of this.

New York City is full of idiots. The average Yang voter probably gushingly approves of Cuomo because of the press fawning in the past year and hates De Blasio because the media tells them to. Never mind that Cuomo has been fighting De Blasio to take a sh**t on the MTA and flip the city for a profit for years now.

Let's not forget name recognition means more than anything.

Don't forget the young people who have positive impressions of Yang as a candidate from 2020 (and don't know much about the other candidates) and are not aware that he's one of the right wing candidates in this race. Despairing of that message breaking through before June.

Not talking about activist types here, just a bunch of people who were for Bernie or Warren but not strongly engaged in the political process. They should be a weak flank of the current Yang coalition but doesn't seem to be much movement there. I see a lot of them anecdotally.

[Babeuf]

https://twitter.com/emmagf/status/1384824582335565824?s=21

As a pretty solid front runner, this won’t be the last semi-opportunistic endorsement that Yang gets (Menchaca is term limited and wants some appointment job or Yang’s support in some future run). Politicians flock to a perceived winner.

[Babeuf]

Damn this sucks. Was settling on Scott as my #2 choice before this (and the first ranked choice with a chance to win). Going to wait and see how this plays out...

[Babeuf]

Frontrunner
Andrew Yang
Competitors
Eric Adams, Maya Wiley
Periphery of Competition
Ray McGuire, Diane Morales
Field
Shaun Donovan, Kathryn Garcia
lol
Scott Stringer

Donovan isn't competitive at all? He seems like one of the best for governing there.

His dad has spent around $3 million to run ads about him working for / being close to Obama. It doesn't seem to be doing much so far but maybe he'll benefit a bit from a Stringer implosion.

[Babeuf]

Adams is repulsive this debate (and in general) imo. I actually have come around to the view that Stringer would have the best chance to win if no allegation but now there’s no real chance for him, although he’ll hang around in the low double digits or high single digits. He had a real possible 50%+ coalition but it’s ruined now.

[Babeuf]

How will the general public interpret this debate, likely speaking?

Doubt many are watching.

[Babeuf]

Don't think much of Garcia, but she's better than Adams for sure and probably better than Yang.

I guess this is my current 5 atm (still struggling with whether to include Stringer at all but probably will for pragmatic purposes):

1. Morales
2. Wiley
3. Stringer
4. Garcia (just to block Adams and Yang)
5. Yang (just to prevent a Mayor Adams if they come down to the final two)

[Babeuf]

She never had a chance of winning but yikes.

... Jumaane really should have run this time, probably the only thing that could have avoided a further right mayor than De Blasio (I consider Stringer around the same as de Blasio ideologically, obviously some differences though).