NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[KaiserDave]

Insane thread here
https://twitter.com/danarubinstein/status/1364695297209810947
NYPD's budget is $11 bil, nearly 90% of which is salaries & pensions — cutting it by 30% without reducing police numbers is mathematically impossible (and, frankly, a 30% cut to cops is going to cause a crime spike that will drive more residents & businesses into the suburbs, exacerbating the budget problem).

But, naturally, that stood as the craziest thing said at this forum for only about fifteen minutes, because Eric Adams had this to say:
https://twitter.com/danarubinstein/status/1364698595237261317
400:1 student-teacher ratio, Khan Academy replacing regular school for everyone. KaiserDave is probably right about the three most normal candidates.

I was gonna go to this forum, but I had errands to run. Do you have footage of the entire thing? I wonder if my questions got in (the same four as before).

But yeah, Morales just strikes me as well intentioned, but one of those lefties devoid of the actual grit of policy, and whose inexperience is a flaw.

Eric Adam is terrible, and this answer confirms it. Anyone who wants to continue remote learning forever has zero credibility.

Donovan, Garcia, and Stringer strike me as the only candidates who can actually lead a massive city.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Insane thread here
https://twitter.com/danarubinstein/status/1364695297209810947
NYPD's budget is $11 bil, nearly 90% of which is salaries & pensions — cutting it by 30% without reducing police numbers is mathematically impossible (and, frankly, a 30% cut to cops is going to cause a crime spike that will drive more residents & businesses into the suburbs, exacerbating the budget problem).

But, naturally, that stood as the craziest thing said at this forum for only about fifteen minutes, because Eric Adams had this to say:
https://twitter.com/danarubinstein/status/1364698595237261317
400:1 student-teacher ratio, Khan Academy replacing regular school for everyone. KaiserDave is probably right about the three most normal candidates.

I sympathize with Morales, but that Adams statement is f***ed beyond belief.

[Lambsbread]

Yikes.

[AGA]

This race needs more polling.

[If my soul was made of stone]

400:1 student-teacher ratio, Khan Academy replacing regular school for everyone. KaiserDave is probably right about the three most normal candidates.

Giving me flashbacks to my 11th grade US History teacher showing the class clips from Betsy Devos' confirmation hearings.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

400:1 student-teacher ratio, Khan Academy replacing regular school for everyone. KaiserDave is probably right about the three most normal candidates.

I can imagine the teachers unions would riot in mass and I can’t blame them. That’s insane and ridiculous to assume teachers would even consider teacher 400 students

[KaiserDave]

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/540769-yang-intervenes-after-man-threatened-with-metal-pole-on-staten-island


https://www.radio.com/1010wins/news/local/new-yorkers-unite-against-anti-asian-violence-at-nyc-rally

Today Yang stopped an attack on the Ferry and attended an Anti Hate Crime Rally. He's so going to win.

:/

[NewYorkExpress]

New York City Party bosses are sitting out the Democratic Primary

When Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez toppled Queens party boss Joe Crowley in 2018, it marked a new low for the local Democratic machines that once held sway over New York City politics.

Now, the party organizations in the city’s boroughs can’t even get behind a candidate for one of the most important mayoral contests in recent memory.


Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams, a leading candidate among more than two dozen people seeking the Democratic nomination for mayor, made a hard sell for the Queens party nod. Borough pride be damned, Adams stared into the camera on a recent weeknight and declared himself the “Queens candidate.”


“We have heard reported over and over again that there is not a Queens candidate running for mayor. That is not true. I am the Queens candidate,” Adams, who grew up in Queens, told its Democratic county organization at a virtual forum earlier this month. “This is a borough that is dear to my heart.”

Two weeks later, Rep. Greg Meeks, who runs the Queens Democratic party, announced the organization’s district leaders had not reached consensus around a single candidate and would skip endorsing in the race to replace outgoing Mayor Bill de Blasio. His counterparts in Brooklyn and the Bronx are charting a similar path — all three so far declining to get behind any of the contenders four months before the June 22 primary.

The abdication by the county parties — which at one time had viable organizations in three of the city’s five boroughs — marks another demonstration of the local Democratic organizations’ recession from their once-powerful role at the center of New York City politics.

No longer are party leaders able to corral — or dictate, depending on one’s perspective — votes for citywide candidates, leaving them without position in one of the most consequential local elections in modern memory.

[KaiserDave]

Good. Party machines are undemocratic and corrupt.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

The only endorsement I Care about is the DSA.

[KaiserDave]

The only endorsement I Care about is the DSA.

They're probably gonna endorse Morales, with an outside chance of Stringer? I'm not sure.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

The only endorsement I Care about is the DSA.

They're probably gonna endorse Morales, with an outside chance of Stringer? I'm not sure.

I suppose Menchaca is considered too much of a no-hoper. He's the only one that's 100% in their wheelhouse.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

The only endorsement I Care about is the DSA.

They're probably gonna endorse Morales, with an outside chance of Stringer? I'm not sure.

That would be my guess. Definitely not Yang or Adams. Incidentally, that's also my preference now - Morales or Stringer. I would be okay with Garcia or Wiley.

[Babeuf]

The only endorsement I Care about is the DSA.

They're probably gonna endorse Morales, with an outside chance of Stringer? I'm not sure.

Morales - some chance. No chance they endorse Stringer, although many members will rank him in their top 5.

My guess is that DSA won’t endorse. They won’t see enough upside or a strong enough candidate to get behind.

[Oryxslayer]

The only endorsement I Care about is the DSA.

They're probably gonna endorse Morales, with an outside chance of Stringer? I'm not sure.

Morales - some chance. No chance they endorse Stringer, although many members will rank him in their top 5.

My guess is that DSA won’t endorse. They won’t see enough upside or a strong enough candidate to get behind.

I bet they'll give a list of 3-5 candidates and tell people to rank them at the top of their list. It prevents the DSA from throwing down a hard commitment on any imperfect candidate, it absolves them of any responsibility, and it shows they are committed to electoral reform.

[KaiserDave]

The only endorsement I Care about is the DSA.

They're probably gonna endorse Morales, with an outside chance of Stringer? I'm not sure.

I suppose Menchaca is considered too much of a no-hoper. He's the only one that's 100% in their wheelhouse.

Morales is in their wheelhouse too I think, but yeah Menchaca is a no hoper.

[Babeuf]

The only endorsement I Care about is the DSA.

They're probably gonna endorse Morales, with an outside chance of Stringer? I'm not sure.

Morales - some chance. No chance they endorse Stringer, although many members will rank him in their top 5.

My guess is that DSA won’t endorse. They won’t see enough upside or a strong enough candidate to get behind.

I bet they'll give a list of 3-5 candidates and tell people to rank them at the top of their list. It prevents the DSA from throwing down a hard commitment on any imperfect candidate, it absolves them of any responsibility, and it shows they are committed to electoral reform.

It’s certainly possible. If they do, I don’t think Stringer will make the list.

I do expect there to be a heavy DSA focus on council races this time around, much more so than the mayoral race. There are a large amount of open seats, so all to play for this year.

[Donerail]

I bet they'll give a list of 3-5 candidates and tell people to rank them at the top of their list. It prevents the DSA from throwing down a hard commitment on any imperfect candidate, it absolves them of any responsibility, and it shows they are committed to electoral reform.

Absolutely not — this is not how DSA electoral strategy works. They want endorsements to mean something in terms of volunteers and cash flowing in, so that the pol really owes their election to DSA and will owe them something once in office. Qualified, tepid citywide endorsements of multiple candidates that "absolves them of any responsibility" is the exact opposite of that strategy. At that point, the endorsement is basically meaningless, so why do it at all?

[Oryxslayer]

I bet they'll give a list of 3-5 candidates and tell people to rank them at the top of their list. It prevents the DSA from throwing down a hard commitment on any imperfect candidate, it absolves them of any responsibility, and it shows they are committed to electoral reform.

Absolutely not — this is not how DSA electoral strategy works. They want endorsements to mean something in terms of volunteers and cash flowing in, so that the pol really owes their election to DSA and will owe them something once in office. Qualified, tepid citywide endorsements of multiple candidates that "absolves them of any responsibility" is the exact opposite of that strategy. At that point, the endorsement is basically meaningless, so why do it at all?

Because your activists, and there are a lot of them in the gentrifying east side of the Hudson, demand that you don't leave the Progressive mayoral candidates out to dry even though they are getting electorally squeezed. As previously noted the more important races for NYC Progressives right now are for city council, but endorsing in a lower race and ignoring candidates like Morales because of poor polling seems designed to confuse a lot of the limited voter pool.

[KaiserDave]

I bet they'll give a list of 3-5 candidates and tell people to rank them at the top of their list. It prevents the DSA from throwing down a hard commitment on any imperfect candidate, it absolves them of any responsibility, and it shows they are committed to electoral reform.

Absolutely not — this is not how DSA electoral strategy works. They want endorsements to mean something in terms of volunteers and cash flowing in, so that the pol really owes their election to DSA and will owe them something once in office. Qualified, tepid citywide endorsements of multiple candidates that "absolves them of any responsibility" is the exact opposite of that strategy. At that point, the endorsement is basically meaningless, so why do it at all?

Because your activists, and there are a lot of them in the gentrifying east side of the Hudson, demand that you don't leave the Progressive mayoral candidates out to dry even though they are getting electorally squeezed. As previously noted the more important races for NYC Progressives right now are for city council, but endorsing in a lower race and ignoring candidates like Morales because of poor polling seems designed to confuse a lot of the limited voter pool.

Do you think Morales is doing better than polls suggest?

[Oryxslayer]

I bet they'll give a list of 3-5 candidates and tell people to rank them at the top of their list. It prevents the DSA from throwing down a hard commitment on any imperfect candidate, it absolves them of any responsibility, and it shows they are committed to electoral reform.

Absolutely not — this is not how DSA electoral strategy works. They want endorsements to mean something in terms of volunteers and cash flowing in, so that the pol really owes their election to DSA and will owe them something once in office. Qualified, tepid citywide endorsements of multiple candidates that "absolves them of any responsibility" is the exact opposite of that strategy. At that point, the endorsement is basically meaningless, so why do it at all?

Because your activists, and there are a lot of them in the gentrifying east side of the Hudson, demand that you don't leave the Progressive mayoral candidates out to dry even though they are getting electorally squeezed. As previously noted the more important races for NYC Progressives right now are for city council, but endorsing in a lower race and ignoring candidates like Morales because of poor polling seems designed to confuse a lot of the limited voter pool.

Do you think Morales is doing better than polls suggest?

I think a lot of things about polling are uncertain if Yang screws up and loses all hype, but her poor polling right now is likely real. The issue that I see is if you are going to endorse a ton of lower level primary candidates but just ignore the progressives in the main race because they can't keep up with Yang, tends to send the message of electoral gamesmanship when your brand is supposed to be  ideological purity.

[Donerail]

Because your activists, and there are a lot of them in the gentrifying east side of the Hudson, demand that you don't leave the Progressive mayoral candidates out to dry even though they are getting electorally squeezed. As previously noted the more important races for NYC Progressives right now are for city council, but endorsing in a lower race and ignoring candidates like Morales because of poor polling seems designed to confuse a lot of the limited voter pool.

DSA is staying out of the mayoral race and focusing on five city council elections, because they have limited resources and want to focus those volunteer-hours where they'll actually make a difference (i.e. not in a citywide election). The activist groundswell that you are imagining for Morales or Menchaca does not exist in reality — this is not, so far as I can tell, particularly confusing to anyone other than you. If you disagree with the electoral strategy, feel free to join DSA and put it up for a vote.

More broadly, I think you misunderstand what DSA is and what a DSA endorsement means. DSA is not a rubber-stamp NGO that endorses every "progressive" candidate just so they can have another logo to put on their mailers — they are an ideologically-driven organization that views electoral work on behalf of socialist candidates as merely one part of building organizational power. They will not endorse candidates in races where the activists they can mobilize will have little influence on the outcome of the election (such as, for instance, a city-wide mayoral election).

I think a lot of things about polling are uncertain if Yang screws up and loses all hype, but her poor polling right now is likely real. The issue that I see is if you are going to endorse a ton of lower level primary candidates but just ignore the progressives in the main race because they can't keep up with Yang, tends to send the message of electoral gamesmanship when your brand is supposed to be  ideological purity.

The six DSA-endorsed candidates proudly identify themselves as socialists. Morales, so far as I can find, does not. There's your ideological purity.

[KaiserDave]

Morales probably is more on board with DSA priorities far more than anybody running however. Probably more so than Menchaca too.

[KaiserDave]

Let's shine some light on the Republican primary. While the winner here will be doomed to getting 30% on a good night in November, it's still somewhat interesting.

There are three major candidates

Fernando Mateo is a Dominican American entrepreneur running on a pro immigrant, anti Cuomo, pro landlord, moderate urban Republicanism of the Bush and Clinton years. He is known for advocating for taxi drivers and bodega owners. He has been endorsed by the Manhattan, Bronx, and Queens GOP. On Trump, he's going for the weaselly "great policies, bad personality" path. He voted for Trump twice. Here are some links are him.

https://nypost.com/2021/02/26/manhattan-gop-endorses-fernando-mateo-for-nyc-mayor/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UA5mNex4So


Curtis Silwa is an anti crime vigilante and radio host. He is running on the pro police, anti crime cultural conservatism very common in South Brooklyn and Staten Island. He has been endorsed by the (comparatively more conservative) Staten Island and Brooklyn GOP. He's spent a lot of time bashing de Blasio and the big spending plans of the Democrats running. He is not running as a pro Trump candidate. Here are some links.

https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2021/02/27/nyc-elections-2021-whos-running-curtis-sliwa-on-the-issues-public-safety-crime-bill-de-blasio-donald-trump-rudy-giuliani

https://www.gothamgazette.com/city/10117-decision-nyc-curtis-sliwa-runs-nyc-mayor-2021

Sara Tirschwell, CFO of Foundation House is running on Rockefeller Republicanism of yesteryear, but has no real shot at the nomination.

John Catsimatidis, GOP megadonor and grocery store King who basically controls most of the NYCGOP waits in the wings, still pondering a run. So far it looks unlikely, but if he does run he will win the nomination easily. Silwa has already pledged to drop out and endorse him if John pulls the trigger.


Naturally I would support none of them and none of them have any chance of winning, no matter who the Democrats nominate. If the Democrats nominate someone I don't like, I'll probably write in.

[beesley]

This is the sort of race that should have a proper televised debate for the primary. I don't know how US TV marketing/local networks work so put it on SNY if you have to.