2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I think Porter should run in the 47th. It's Biden +9 instead of +6. A little redder than her current one but better than the new 45th.
Steel will probably run in the 45th, and Levin will probably run in the 48th.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Terrible map for the Sacramento Area. Davis might be a bit of a stretch to include (as I mentioned a bit before, having West Sac is ok, but the Yolo Bypass makes it a bit iffy to include Davis with Sacramento

Where does Ami Bera run?

Away

[Nyvin]

Terrible map for the Sacramento Area. Davis might be a bit of a stretch to include (as I mentioned a bit before, having West Sac is ok, but the Yolo Bypass makes it a bit iffy to include Davis with Sacramento

Where does Ami Bera run?

Away

What?  Why can't he run in 7?   Costa runs in 15, McNerney in 9, Matsui in 6, Bera in 7.  

Harder is the rep I don't really find a district for in the current draft map.  Unless I guess Costa actually does challenge Nunes?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Harder is the rep I don't really find a district for in the current draft map.

I'd look at McNerney as a retirement prospect and anticipate Harder running there.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Sara Jacobs is in trouble too, right

[Thunder98]

My district (CA-24) in this proposed map goes from a PVI of D+19 to D+25 by removing the republican area of SLO County. Before 2018, the Republicans really wanted to take this seat from Lois Capps and Salud Carbajal. Now it's utterly impossible for them to do so now.

[Nyvin]

Sara Jacobs is in trouble too, right

Either Sara Jacobs or Scott Peters,  they're both kinda squeezed out.  More of Scott Peters district was maintained than Jacob's though.

Jacobs could run against Issa, his district is more Dem now and Issa isn't popular.

Edit - Looking it over again,  50 is kinda Jacob's new district and 49 is Issa's, 44 is Calvert's.

[Figueira]

I like how they reshuffled things in the Central Coast. Including Gonzales, Greenfield, and King City with San Benito County is weird, but I guess it's to shore up the Hispanic numbers in that district.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Overall this seems like a pretty good map. It seems pretty fair from both a COI perspective and partisanship standpoint. A reminder this is still a really early map just to give us a general idea; I bet a lot of issues that have been continually brought up about things such as Sacramento being laid out weird will come to the Commission's attention.

While some of the SoCal districts visually look ugly, you have to remember SoCal geography is kinda weird because you got really dense urban areas next to mountains where no one lives, meaning in some of these districts it's really just attached mountains causing most of the ugliness. Some of it is also to maximize minority representation too.

Also nice to see this Commission unanimously agreed to this map at least to start; it hasn't become a partisan mess.

Atlas just needs to remember this is an Independent Commission, and doing things like Cracking Sants Anna to try and make more likely/safe D seats in SoCal is not their job, it's to make a fair map taht tries it's best to represent all communities in an incredibly complex state.

[H. Ross Peron]

Overall this seems like a pretty good map. It seems pretty fair from both a COI perspective and partisanship standpoint. A reminder this is still a really early map just to give us a general idea; I bet a lot of issues that have been continually brought up about things such as Sacramento being laid out weird will come to the Commission's attention.

While some of the SoCal districts visually look ugly, you have to remember SoCal geography is kinda weird because you got really dense urban areas next to mountains where no one lives, meaning in some of these districts it's really just attached mountains causing most of the ugliness. Some of it is also to maximize minority representation too.

Also nice to see this Commission unanimously agreed to this map at least to start; it hasn't become a partisan mess.

Atlas just needs to remember this is an Independent Commission, and doing things like Cracking Sants Anna to try and make more likely/safe D seats in SoCal is not their job, it's to make a fair map taht tries it's best to represent all communities in an incredibly complex state.

Unpacking CA-46 by separating Anaheim from Santa Ana surely involves less splitting communities of interest than splitting up Irvine.

[Gass3268]

Mike Garcia is pissed.

https://twitter.com/ElectMikeGarcia/status/1459937074493095941?s=20

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Mike Garcia is pissed.

https://twitter.com/ElectMikeGarcia/status/1459937074493095941?s=20

I abhor identity politics (except when it benefits my argument)

[Oryxslayer]

Mike Garcia is pissed.

https://twitter.com/ElectMikeGarcia/status/1459937074493095941?s=20

I abhor identity politics (except when it benefits my argument)

What makes this especially stupid about this line of reasoning is that nesting the CA-25 successor inside LA County means he's getting a seat that's substantially more Hispanic than now.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Mike Garcia is pissed.

https://twitter.com/ElectMikeGarcia/status/1459937074493095941?s=20

I abhor identity politics (except when it benefits my argument)

What makes this especially stupid about this line of reasoning is that nesting the CA-25 successor inside LA County means he's getting a seat that's substantially more Hispanic than now.

Obviously the only minority he cares about is republicans

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Christy Smith lost the current CA-25 by a razor-thin margin. She should be able to win a CA-25 nested within LA County with relative ease. (provided she is main Dem candidate)

[cvparty]

Christy Smith lost the current CA-25 by a razor-thin margin. She should be able to win a CA-25 nested within LA County with relative ease. (provided she is main Dem candidate)

It's only 3 points more D, I strongly doubt she would even win a Biden midterm

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Christy Smith lost the current CA-25 by a razor-thin margin. She should be able to win a CA-25 nested within LA County with relative ease. (provided she is main Dem candidate)

It's only 3 points more D, I strongly doubt she would even win a Biden midterm

3 points more D is enough to make Garcia disfavored even in a Biden midterm.

[Greedo punched first]

The new draft shows Steel (R-Seal Beach) being drawn into CA-39 with Young Kim (R-Fullerton). Also, it shows Lowenthal and Roybal-Allard being double bunked.

[Brittain33]

The new draft shows Steel (R-Seal Beach) being drawn into CA-39 with Young Kim (R-Fullerton). Also, it shows Lowenthal and Roybal-Allard being double bunked.

Is there a new new draft or is this the one from last week?

[Greedo punched first]

The new draft shows Steel (R-Seal Beach) being drawn into CA-39 with Young Kim (R-Fullerton). Also, it shows Lowenthal and Roybal-Allard being double bunked.

Is there a new new draft or is this the one from last week?

Last week’s draft has Seal Beach and Fullerton in CA-39. It also merges CA-40 and CA-47.

[Horus]

Christy Smith lost the current CA-25 by a razor-thin margin. She should be able to win a CA-25 nested within LA County with relative ease. (provided she is main Dem candidate)

She would be an atrocious candidate. You don't make fun of a person's military service.

Quaye Quartey is a veteran, looks like a solid candidate. Dara Stransky also looks solid. Literally anyone besides Smith can pick up this seat.

[Greedo punched first]

CA-45 loses western Irvine to CA-48 and takes in Yorba Linda on the latest draft. Who might run in CA-45?

[H. Ross Peron]

CA-45 loses western Irvine to CA-48 and takes in Yorba Linda on the latest draft. Who might run in CA-45?

Young Kim, esp since she wants to avoid a primary battle with Steel presumably.

[Greedo punched first]

CA-45 loses western Irvine to CA-48 and takes in Yorba Linda on the latest draft. Who might run in CA-45?

Young Kim, esp since she wants to avoid a primary battle with Steel presumably.

Might carpetbagging into a district with very little of the current CA-39 also cause a primary battle with a district resident?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Christy Smith lost the current CA-25 by a razor-thin margin. She should be able to win a CA-25 nested within LA County with relative ease. (provided she is main Dem candidate)

She would be an atrocious candidate. You don't make fun of a person's military service.

Quaye Quartey is a veteran, looks like a solid candidate. Dara Stransky also looks solid. Literally anyone besides Smith can pick up this seat.

Yeah, Smith has had two chances and she blew both. I don't see why she deserves a third.