COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1276233295722942464

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1276240972062613505

It definitely seems like masks are quite effective at preventing the spread of the virus.  I believe this might be the single biggest contributing factor in why most Asian countries had so much more success containing the virus than most European countries.

However, I don’t understand how so many people can look at current infection rates and still believe that partial herd immunity has no effect.  Based on Nate’s very simple model, past infections have a large negative effect on current R rate, controlling for weather and mask policy (which itself is probably pretty strongly colinear with other social distancing policies).

Everyone keeps mentioning that we are nowhere close to the commonly cited herd immunity threshold of 60-70%.  And that is certainly true.  Based on CDC head Redfield’s statements today, it sounds like the best estimate of current immunity in the US is about 8%.

But when through other policies and behaviors you’ve already reduced the R of the virus to something approaching 1, a small increase in immunity levels can make a huge difference.

For example, a few days ago someone linked to https://rt.live/, estimating current R rates in every state.  You’ll see the median state is estimated to have an R of around 1.1, and this group includes such diverse states as California, Alabama, Wisconsin, and Washington, meaning the virus is gradually growing.  New York, on the other hand, has a current R of .94, meaning the virus is gradually dying off.

What might explain the difference between CA and NY?  It might be that Cuomo has just been much better at implementing policies to slow the virus than Newsome.  Or something about the weather, etc.  But it seems most likely to me that the best explanation is that about 20% of NY’s population is already immune, while only about 5% of CA’s population is immune.  Reducing the population pool eligible for infection by 15% would reduce an R of 1.1 to .94 by itself, and turn a growing virus into a dying one.

If you look at the states with negative R values now, they are almost all state that have the highest rate of past infections.  Because when almost every state has an R value residing between .75 and .25 (as shown in the rt.live graph), the past infection rate doesn’t need to be that high to flip the state from positive to negative.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1276233295722942464

Go Joe!

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1276233295722942464

Go Joe!

How long until Fox News or One America starts calling Biden "unpresidential" because of these comments?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/SenDuckworth/status/1276271749106225162

[jimrtex]

This is a case where IMO Hidalgo should simply issue the stay at home order and begin enforcing it.

If Abbott wants to stop it, let him send the Texas Rangers to arrest her.

If he does, when things get worse (which is unavoidable at this point due to the time lag of infection to hospitalization), Abbott will take the blame.

Or alternatively, maybe Abbott will fold. In which case many lives could still be saved.

So the upside is, if Abbott caves, lives are saved. If Abbott doesn't cave, then Abbott takes the blame when things get bad. Sounds pretty win-win to me.

Have you ever heard Hidalgo speak? You'd want your third grader out enforcing it saying with her sweet wavering voice we hope you voluntarily wear masks but it is the law and there is a fine?

The police and constables said that they weren't going to be enforcing her earlier order, because she said it was discretionary, and that they had real criminals to arrest. Ordinary citizens were taking food out to seniors who were quarantining (they'd leave the groceries on the door step). You'd want those people arrested for not staying at home?

Hopefully there will not be a hurricane in the next two years or it will be the second coming of Mary Blanco.

My apartment complex sent me a notice about the mask order. Like everything they actually want people to read it was short and to the point (only contracts are long, and they mark the places where you have to initial, so you don't have to read it).

Attached was Hidalgo's order. There were four _pages_ of whereas, and then a bunch of text that was so legalese that I didn't bother to read it.

[emailking]

Looks like today was another record and we still haven't peaked.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/25 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this post>

6/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
• Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:

• Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
• Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:

• Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:

• Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18:

• Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
• Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19:

• Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
• Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/20:

• Cases: 2,330,578 (+33,388 | Δ Change: ↓0.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
• Deaths: 121,980 (+573 | Δ Change: ↓20.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

6/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,356,657 (+26,079 | Δ Change: ↓21.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 122,247 (+267 | Δ Change: ↓53.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/22:

• Cases: 2,388,153 (+31,496 | Δ Change: ↑20.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)
• Deaths: 122,610 (+363 | Δ Change: ↑35.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

6/23:

• Cases: 2,424,168 (+36,015 | Δ Change: ↑14.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
• Deaths: 123,473 (+863 | Δ Change: ↑137.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by DE

6/24 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 2,462,554 (+38,386 | Δ Change: ↑6.18% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
• Deaths: 124,281 (+808 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

6/25 (Today):

• Cases: 2,504,588 (+42,034 | Δ Change: ↑9.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 126,780 (+2,499 | Δ Change: ↑209.28% | Σ Increase: ↑2.01%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by NJ

[Dr. Arch]

Holy sh*t. This is getting really bad. Forumlurker has been proven right again on the death rate, as many experts expected with cases continuing to spike.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Holy sh*t. This is getting really bad. Forumlurker has been proven right again on the death rate, as many experts expected with cases continuing to spike.

According to Nate Silver, deaths were down week over week, but New Jersey reclassified a bunch of old deaths.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Holy sh*t. This is getting really bad. Forumlurker has been proven right again on the death rate, as many experts expected with cases continuing to spike.

According to Nate Silver, deaths were down week over week, but New Jersey reclassified a bunch of old deaths.

Accurate. Deaths will almost certainly go up eventually, but they are a lagging indicator and will take some time for it to show up.

[It’s so Joever]

Holy sh*t. This is getting really bad. Forumlurker has been proven right again on the death rate, as many experts expected with cases continuing to spike.

As much as I would like to claim credit, this is a death dump from NJ. Real deaths today were still down if you take that data out. If(or in my opinion, when) the death rates increase again, it will be in the new hotspots. I’m mainly keeping an eye on AZ and TX (not Florida due to the controversy)
It’s stable now, but I do think it will increase in these states within the next week. How that translates nationally depends, but I do think national deaths will be up in about 10-15 days, possibly even sooner.

[Blue3]

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1276233295722942464

Go Joe!

He didn't seem to get much crowd reaction.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1276233295722942464

Go Joe!

He didn't seem to get much crowd reaction.

The speech was given in front of a small crowd, in accordance with public health/social distancing guidelines. Makes sense, given he - unlike the incumbent President - actually knows how to responsibly run a campaign in light of the current circumstances.

[GP270watch]

Don't worry guys this will all be over by next Easter.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1276233295722942464

Go Joe!

He didn't seem to get much crowd reaction.

The speech was given in front of a small crowd, in accordance with public health/social distancing guidelines. Makes sense, given he - unlike the incumbent President - actually knows how to responsibly run a campaign in light of the current circumstances.

How many individuals in this small crowd?

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1276233295722942464

Go Joe!

He didn't seem to get much crowd reaction.

The speech was given in front of a small crowd, in accordance with public health/social distancing guidelines. Makes sense, given he - unlike the incumbent President - actually knows how to responsibly run a campaign in light of the current circumstances.

How many individuals in this small crowd?

Just a handful of PA families who'd met with Biden to tell him that the ACA had helped them access life-saving health care & avoid financial hardships, in addition to the reporters present.

[T'Chenka]

I sometimes post on a hockey forum, and there was a big meme there about how certain NHL teams would be "quietly roaring back" in the standings, which makes no sense, but kind of does if you consider the "quiet" part how aware people are socially and the "roaring" part to be the actual statistics.

COVID-19 is quietly roaring back.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/25 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

6/24 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 2,462,554 (+38,386 | Δ Change: ↑6.18% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
• Deaths: 124,281 (+808 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

6/25 (Today):

• Cases: 2,504,588 (+42,034 | Δ Change: ↑9.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 126,780 (+2,499 | Δ Change: ↑209.28% | Σ Increase: ↑2.01%)

If you are using worldometers as a source, I’m not sure how you are getting 2,499 deaths today.  Worldometers counted 649 deaths today, and then allocated 1,849 probable earlier deaths in New Jersey onto days in the past based on proportionate past death counts.  The actual number of new deaths represents a week-over-week decrease of 14%.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/25 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

6/24 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 2,462,554 (+38,386 | Δ Change: ↑6.18% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
• Deaths: 124,281 (+808 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

6/25 (Today):

• Cases: 2,504,588 (+42,034 | Δ Change: ↑9.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 126,780 (+2,499 | Δ Change: ↑209.28% | Σ Increase: ↑2.01%)

If you are using worldometers as a source, I’m not sure how you are getting 2,499 deaths today.  Worldometers counted 649 deaths today, and then allocated 1,849 probable earlier deaths in New Jersey onto days in the past based on proportionate past death counts.  The actual number of new deaths represents a week-over-week decrease of 14%.

Yes, amended accordingly. The case rate is still staggering.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1276233295722942464

Go Joe!

He didn't seem to get much crowd reaction.

The speech was given in front of a small crowd, in accordance with public health/social distancing guidelines. Makes sense, given he - unlike the incumbent President - actually knows how to responsibly run a campaign in light of the current circumstances.

How many individuals in this small crowd?

Just a handful of PA families who'd met with Biden to tell him that the ACA had helped them access life-saving health care & avoid financial hardships, in addition to the reporters present.

So more than two? Two's company ...

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1276363261957603328

[T'Chenka]

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1276363261957603328

Trump's trying to intimidate a virus into not having a 2nd wave on Twitter.

Let that sink in.

[Gass3268]

Texas is closing down bars again

https://twitter.com/chadhastyradio/status/1276504017951227905?s=21