COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

This graph is also misleading because it ignores the dramatically higher case fatality rate in Europe.

The UK yesterday reported 921 new cases and 280 new deaths. (CFR=30%)
The US yesterday reported 36,000 new case and 863 new deaths. (CFR=2%)

Today, UK reported 652 cases and 154 deaths. (CFR=24%)
So far today, the US has reported almost 17,000 cases and 365 deaths. (CFR=2%)

This is yet another example of sloppy math/thinking by people who want to downplay the virus and pretend that everything is just fine.

The people who died in the UK/USA today were not newly diagnosed today, but rather were diagnosed weeks ago. To do a proper comparison, you should be comparing new cases from a few weeks ago to current deaths. Doing so would eliminate a decent amount of the discrepancy (of course, it is true that there are also other factors involved such as per capita tests, but that fact that the amount of tests is a factor does not mean that you can validly ignore other factors such as the time lag).

As another example of sloppy math/thinking, remember a few days ago when Delaware dumped some old death data? It was quickly pointed out (correctly) by virus 'skeptics' that really a proper accounting of those deaths should re-assign them, and so that inflated the day's death totals by a bit. Then the virus skeptics compared this to previous data and said, "if you throw out the Delaware deaths which were really from various earlier days, then today was not so bad." However, did they consider the fact that various states have often similarly dumped previous data from previous days in the past? And that this would likewise apply to some of the previous days a week or two ago, and thus if you apply a correction to one day, you must also consider whether the same correction must be applied to previous days. So did they bother to do that, or even acknowledge that in principle they ought to? Nope. No consistency of that sort in analysis, just trying desperately to cling to whatever makes the situation look a little bit better.

Look, I get it. The virus sucks. Lockdowns suck. And what especially sucks are half-assed lockdowns by incompetent governments and selfish and idiotic populaces that don't even successfully contain the virus, which means that the sacrifice we made of going into lockdown was to a considerable extent in vain.

OK, 3-4 weeks ago the UK was averaging 1500-2000 cases per day, and the US was averaging 20,000-25,000.

It's still a CFR of at least 10% in the UK and well below 5% in the US, despite the UK doing more per capita testing.

I don't know of any other state that reported a big death backlog since Massachusetts did this on June 1, and I did report that in my tracking graphs.  If you know of other states that did this in the past few weeks, I'd appreciate that info.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Trump is ending federal funding for 13 COVID-19 testing sites located across CO, IL, NJ, PA, and TX.

https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1275831919435870208?s=20
https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1275832398664667139?s=20

[Calthrina950]

This graph is also misleading because it ignores the dramatically higher case fatality rate in Europe.

The UK yesterday reported 921 new cases and 280 new deaths. (CFR=30%)
The US yesterday reported 36,000 new case and 863 new deaths. (CFR=2%)

Today, UK reported 652 cases and 154 deaths. (CFR=24%)
So far today, the US has reported almost 17,000 cases and 365 deaths. (CFR=2%)

This is yet another example of sloppy math/thinking by people who want to downplay the virus and pretend that everything is just fine.

The people who died in the UK/USA today were not newly diagnosed today, but rather were diagnosed weeks ago. To do a proper comparison, you should be comparing new cases from a few weeks ago to current deaths. Doing so would eliminate a decent amount of the discrepancy (of course, it is true that there are also other factors involved such as per capita tests, but that fact that the amount of tests is a factor does not mean that you can validly ignore other factors such as the time lag).

As another example of sloppy math/thinking, remember a few days ago when Delaware dumped some old death data? It was quickly pointed out (correctly) by virus 'skeptics' that really a proper accounting of those deaths should re-assign them, and so that inflated the day's death totals by a bit. Then the virus skeptics compared this to previous data and said, "if you throw out the Delaware deaths which were really from various earlier days, then today was not so bad." However, did they consider the fact that various states have often similarly dumped previous data from previous days in the past? And that this would likewise apply to some of the previous days a week or two ago, and thus if you apply a correction to one day, you must also consider whether the same correction must be applied to previous days. So did they bother to do that, or even acknowledge that in principle they ought to? Nope. No consistency of that sort in analysis, just trying desperately to cling to whatever makes the situation look a little bit better.

Look, I get it. The virus sucks. Lockdowns suck. And what especially sucks are half-assed lockdowns by incompetent governments and selfish and idiotic populaces that don't even successfully contain the virus, which means that the sacrifice we made of going into lockdown was to a considerable extent in vain.

What do you think we should do? Go back into lockdown again? Completely replicate the examples of Italy and China with how we conduct it? I don't think that is feasible at this point.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

which means that the sacrifice we made of going into lockdown was to a considerable extent in vain.

The lockdown absolutely was not in vain.  We successfully delayed the outbreak in many places by several months, allowing us to significantly improve testing and treatment, thus dramatically reducing the fatality rate of the virus and saving tens of thousands of lives.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/Jordanfabian/status/1275549408042422272

They're really trying to kill off their base four months before the election.

All while the idiot-in-chief makes fun of the name Covid-19, starting at 0:30:

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Arizona reported 79 deaths today, which is by far a record for them.  That is the stat that we should focus on.  So definitely not a good day for them.

According to KTAR, 53 of them were really old deaths that were reclassed from "probable."

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Deaths down again from a week ago, but cases hit a new all-time high (probably not really the all-time high in infections due to testing though):

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1275914587708276737

[GeorgiaModerate]

The increasing positive test rate is not a good sign.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1275919695380545536

[emailking]

Well if this is not the 2nd wave, like people keep saying, then that means we didn't peak in April. We didn't peak until maybe just now. And we maybe haven't peaked yet either.

[It’s so Joever]

This graph is also misleading because it ignores the dramatically higher case fatality rate in Europe.

The UK yesterday reported 921 new cases and 280 new deaths. (CFR=30%)
The US yesterday reported 36,000 new case and 863 new deaths. (CFR=2%)

Today, UK reported 652 cases and 154 deaths. (CFR=24%)
So far today, the US has reported almost 17,000 cases and 365 deaths. (CFR=2%)

This is yet another example of sloppy math/thinking by people who want to downplay the virus and pretend that everything is just fine.

The people who died in the UK/USA today were not newly diagnosed today, but rather were diagnosed weeks ago. To do a proper comparison, you should be comparing new cases from a few weeks ago to current deaths. Doing so would eliminate a decent amount of the discrepancy (of course, it is true that there are also other factors involved such as per capita tests, but that fact that the amount of tests is a factor does not mean that you can validly ignore other factors such as the time lag).

As another example of sloppy math/thinking, remember a few days ago when Delaware dumped some old death data? It was quickly pointed out (correctly) by virus 'skeptics' that really a proper accounting of those deaths should re-assign them, and so that inflated the day's death totals by a bit. Then the virus skeptics compared this to previous data and said, "if you throw out the Delaware deaths which were really from various earlier days, then today was not so bad." However, did they consider the fact that various states have often similarly dumped previous data from previous days in the past? And that this would likewise apply to some of the previous days a week or two ago, and thus if you apply a correction to one day, you must also consider whether the same correction must be applied to previous days. So did they bother to do that, or even acknowledge that in principle they ought to? Nope. No consistency of that sort in analysis, just trying desperately to cling to whatever makes the situation look a little bit better.

Look, I get it. The virus sucks. Lockdowns suck. And what especially sucks are half-assed lockdowns by incompetent governments and selfish and idiotic populaces that don't even successfully contain the virus, which means that the sacrifice we made of going into lockdown was to a considerable extent in vain.

What do you think we should do? Go back into lockdown again? Completely replicate the examples of Italy and China with how we conduct it? I don't think that is feasible at this point.

Enforced mask orders, keeping large events closed, and a mandatory app for contact tracing is the only good alternative that isn’t genocidal.

[Gass3268]

Things are starting to close down again/delay reopening:

https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/status/1275950710966743040?s=20

[Progressive Pessimist]

Well if this is not the 2nd wave, like people keep saying, then that means we didn't peak in April. We didn't peak until maybe just now. And we maybe haven't peaked yet either.

Really nothing has significantly changed, certain state governments just got impatient and arbitrarily decided that everything was fine when it clearly wasn't. Not all states of course, some are still being smart about it (like mine) at least for now.

[Calthrina950]

This graph is also misleading because it ignores the dramatically higher case fatality rate in Europe.

The UK yesterday reported 921 new cases and 280 new deaths. (CFR=30%)
The US yesterday reported 36,000 new case and 863 new deaths. (CFR=2%)

Today, UK reported 652 cases and 154 deaths. (CFR=24%)
So far today, the US has reported almost 17,000 cases and 365 deaths. (CFR=2%)

This is yet another example of sloppy math/thinking by people who want to downplay the virus and pretend that everything is just fine.

The people who died in the UK/USA today were not newly diagnosed today, but rather were diagnosed weeks ago. To do a proper comparison, you should be comparing new cases from a few weeks ago to current deaths. Doing so would eliminate a decent amount of the discrepancy (of course, it is true that there are also other factors involved such as per capita tests, but that fact that the amount of tests is a factor does not mean that you can validly ignore other factors such as the time lag).

As another example of sloppy math/thinking, remember a few days ago when Delaware dumped some old death data? It was quickly pointed out (correctly) by virus 'skeptics' that really a proper accounting of those deaths should re-assign them, and so that inflated the day's death totals by a bit. Then the virus skeptics compared this to previous data and said, "if you throw out the Delaware deaths which were really from various earlier days, then today was not so bad." However, did they consider the fact that various states have often similarly dumped previous data from previous days in the past? And that this would likewise apply to some of the previous days a week or two ago, and thus if you apply a correction to one day, you must also consider whether the same correction must be applied to previous days. So did they bother to do that, or even acknowledge that in principle they ought to? Nope. No consistency of that sort in analysis, just trying desperately to cling to whatever makes the situation look a little bit better.

Look, I get it. The virus sucks. Lockdowns suck. And what especially sucks are half-assed lockdowns by incompetent governments and selfish and idiotic populaces that don't even successfully contain the virus, which means that the sacrifice we made of going into lockdown was to a considerable extent in vain.

What do you think we should do? Go back into lockdown again? Completely replicate the examples of Italy and China with how we conduct it? I don't think that is feasible at this point.

Enforced mask orders, keeping large events closed, and a mandatory app for contact tracing is the only good alternative that isn’t genocidal.

Well this one is continuing to spread. Oregon, Nevada, and North Carolina have now all joined the mandatory mask train, and the Governor of Utah is allowing for Salt Lake City to impose a mandatory mask order. As I said before, opponents of mask orders have lost, as it's become increasingly clear that they are a vital measure to combat the pandemic. It's also interesting to me that only now, with cases surging in their states, are Republican Governors finally yielding to them.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I totally support requiring masks were feasible.  For the most part, this should have been done a long time ago.  But how would this work in restaurants and pools?

[It’s so Joever]

I totally support requiring masks were feasible.  For the most part, this should have been done a long time ago.  But how would this work in restaurants and pools?

Pools should probably be closed. They honestly are difficult to deal with.
As for restaurants, social distancing should be enforced and imho, we should open up some parking lot space/outside space for more outdoor dining.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

What do you think we should do? Go back into lockdown again? Completely replicate the examples of Italy and China with how we conduct it? I don't think that is feasible at this point.

In practical terms, given realistic constraints (i.e. including the fact that Trump is President and the fact that he doesn't want to do anything, including that huge swaths of the American public are complete idiots, and the fact that our horrendously ill-suited "federalist" system makes a national coordinated policy effectively impossible) there is nothing we can do.

In the ideal case though, if we did not face those realities and were a functional country, we would simply do what every other developed country other than one or two exceptions like Sweden has done. Lock down properly and control the virus on a sufficiently low level so that it can actually be managed, so that at least to a significant degree normal economic activity can resume. Because we have not done that, we are now already starting to see economic data go back down.

For example, restaurant reservations and employee hours worked are already going back in states where the virus has started to flare back up. I fear that these will continue to go down further over the next week or two or three if/when cases continue to grow and the medical systems get overwhelmed:



See also a few posts above, the tweet Gass3268 posted about Apple Stores closing and Disney re-opening being delayed/canceled. There will likely be more of that if/when things get worse again.

Trying to "open up" too early for the sake of the economy simply results in more economic damage, unfortunately. It is a lose-lose, which both costs more lives and over the long run will cause more economic hardship. You know that in Japan, for example, the unemployment rate is still less than 3%? Our economic disaster is entirely of our own making. And it will probably get worse, because among other things the Congress probably won't re-authorize PPP and then more people are at risk of lay-offs. And when they are laid off, assuming that Congress doesn't re-authorize the extra unemployment benefits, their incomes will decline, which means that they will spend less money. And since they spend less money, the businesses who they otherwise would have patronized will be hit with lowered sales and forced to lay off additional workers.

Even barring what is actually necessary though, there are all sorts of little practical things that we could easily be doing that don't have a real additional cost and that could make at least some difference. For example, remember the hospital ship that went to NYC? That should already be sitting in port in Houston.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The positivity rate is now spiking up with more and more clarity:



We are doing the same thing as Iran already did. Open up too early and have cases spike right back up as a result.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

OK, 3-4 weeks ago the UK was averaging 1500-2000 cases per day, and the US was averaging 20,000-25,000.

It's still a CFR of at least 10% in the UK and well below 5% in the US, despite the UK doing more per capita testing.

I don't know of any other state that reported a big death backlog since Massachusetts did this on June 1, and I did report that in my tracking graphs.  If you know of other states that did this in the past few weeks, I'd appreciate that info.

I don't know exactly, I just vaguely remember various random states periodically dumping case #s or deaths/other stats that have been backlogged throughout this entire fiasco. My point is that this is the sort of thing where, if you are going to make corrections to the data, one needs to do so on a consistent basis. The point is that one can't draw valid conclusions while adjusting some of the data on the current day, but not also adjusting previous days in the same sort of way.

which means that the sacrifice we made of going into lockdown was to a considerable extent in vain.

The lockdown absolutely was not in vain.  We successfully delayed the outbreak in many places by several months, allowing us to significantly improve testing and treatment, thus dramatically reducing the fatality rate of the virus and saving tens of thousands of lives.

Which is why I said "to a considerable extent in vain" rather than simply "in vain." Indeed, many lives will have been saved. But unfortunately if the virus continues to spread, significant #s of the people who avoided infection earlier and whose lives were saved will nonetheless now end up being infected, and end up dying and/or suffering significant negative effects. By contrast, if we had controlled the virus to a similar extent as many other countries, then we might hope that rather than simply delaying those people's infections, they might never get infected at all.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It should be said/emphasized that there is really no institution or person in a position of leadership in America that is not failing.

For example, Anthony Fauci testified in Congress over the last few days.

When he was speaking, he did not wear a mask. Of all people, our public health leaders should always be seen wearing masks to set a good example for the American public.

Is it any wonder that many people are skeptical about whether they need to wear a mask when they turn on the TV and see that even Fauci is not wearing one?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

A lot of experts had been recommending a selective lockdown as a transitional solution, in which older people are still under a relatively strict lockdown, but the economy opens up for younger people.

It seems possible to me that this may be what has ended up happening just based on people understanding their own incentives, without any legally enforced age discrimination taking place.  Younger people are going out and getting infected, leading to more cases but fewer deaths, while older people remain much more cautious.   This doesn’t seem like a bad thing to me as it gets up closer to herd immunity while minimizing the cost to human life.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/24 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this post>

6/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
• Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:

• Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
• Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:

• Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:

• Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18:

• Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
• Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19:

• Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
• Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/20:

• Cases: 2,330,578 (+33,388 | Δ Change: ↓0.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
• Deaths: 121,980 (+573 | Δ Change: ↓20.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

6/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,356,657 (+26,079 | Δ Change: ↓21.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 122,247 (+267 | Δ Change: ↓53.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/22:

• Cases: 2,388,153 (+31,496 | Δ Change: ↑20.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)
• Deaths: 122,610 (+363 | Δ Change: ↑35.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

6/23 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 2,424,168 (+36,015 | Δ Change: ↑14.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
• Deaths: 123,473 (+863 | Δ Change: ↑137.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by DE

6/24 (Today):

• Cases: 2,462,554 (+38,386 | Δ Change: ↑6.18% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
• Deaths: 124,281 (+808 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/24 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this post>

6/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
• Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:

• Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
• Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:

• Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:

• Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18:

• Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
• Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19:

• Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
• Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/20:

• Cases: 2,330,578 (+33,388 | Δ Change: ↓0.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
• Deaths: 121,980 (+573 | Δ Change: ↓20.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

6/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,356,657 (+26,079 | Δ Change: ↓21.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 122,247 (+267 | Δ Change: ↓53.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/22:

• Cases: 2,388,153 (+31,496 | Δ Change: ↑20.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)
• Deaths: 122,610 (+363 | Δ Change: ↑35.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

6/23 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 2,424,168 (+36,015 | Δ Change: ↑14.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
• Deaths: 123,473 (+863 | Δ Change: ↑137.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by DE

6/24 (Today):

• Cases: 2,462,554 (+38,386 | Δ Change: ↑6.18% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
• Deaths: 124,281 (+808 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by DE

What a catastrophe this all has been. So many more people are going to needlessly die because because of societal recklessness and government incompetence.

I just stare at these newly-rising case numbers and feel searing hot rage. These new cases were avoidable, and the fact that we didn't avoid them is inexcusable.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

A lot of experts had been recommending a selective lockdown as a transitional solution, in which older people are still under a relatively strict lockdown, but the economy opens up for younger people.

It seems possible to me that this may be what has ended up happening just based on people understanding their own incentives, without any legally enforced age discrimination taking place.  Younger people are going out and getting infected, leading to more cases but fewer deaths, while older people remain much more cautious.   This doesn’t seem like a bad thing to me as it gets up closer to herd immunity while minimizing the cost to human life.

This is unfortunately not at all what is happening because lots of people who would like to not get infected are being forced to go in to their offices to work (even in cases , where they are ending up getting infected. And in some cases die. Old people and other people who wish not to be infected also need to do various other things such as get food, during which time they are vulnerable to potential infection. While well off people can minimize some of this risk by ordering things, especially many poor people who are not wealthy cannot avoid things such as physically going to stores (where in many states/localities people are still not taking basic precautions such as wearing masks). In addition, there are many people (both old and young) who need non-COVID medical care for other afflictions, and if/when hospitals are overwhelmed they cannot get this medical care and are vulnerable to death and suffering other ill-health effects as a result.

So no, Candide, that is not what is happening, everything is not for the best, and we do not live in the best of all possible worlds. Or perhaps we do, this is as good as it gets.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

A lot of experts had been recommending a selective lockdown as a transitional solution, in which older people are still under a relatively strict lockdown, but the economy opens up for younger people.

It seems possible to me that this may be what has ended up happening just based on people understanding their own incentives, without any legally enforced age discrimination taking place.  Younger people are going out and getting infected, leading to more cases but fewer deaths, while older people remain much more cautious.   This doesn’t seem like a bad thing to me as it gets up closer to herd immunity while minimizing the cost to human life.

This is unfortunately not at all what is happening because lots of people who would like to not get infected are being forced to go in to their offices to work (even in cases , where they are ending up getting infected. And in some cases die. Old people and other people who wish not to be infected also need to do various other things such as get food, during which time they are vulnerable to potential infection. While well off people can minimize some of this risk by ordering things, especially many poor people who are not wealthy cannot avoid things such as physically going to stores (where in many states/localities people are still not taking basic precautions such as wearing masks). In addition, there are many people (both old and young) who need non-COVID medical care for other afflictions, and if/when hospitals are overwhelmed they cannot get this medical care and are vulnerable to death and suffering other ill-health effects as a result.

So no, Candide, that is not what is happening, everything is not for the best, and we do not live in the best of all possible worlds. Or perhaps we do, this is as good as it gets.

If you think things are terrible but really think there is nothing we can do better, why do you keep posting in the thread?

This certainly isn’t the way I would have gone about mitigating the virus, but at least things are headed in a better direction than they were back in April.