COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[HillGoose]

I hope to God that they don't shut everything down again or I'm gonna be pissed.

Let those of us who don't give a sh**t take our chances. Possibly getting covid comes with the territory and we all know it.

The people who are so worried should just stay in their house. The Stasi aren't going to come to your house and force you to go to Red Lobster, damn.

Honestly there should be a deliberate infection program for people like you. If you want, you will  be deliberately infected but will be placed under house arrest (to prevent spread) as long as you test positive. Afterwards, you are free to do whatever you want no matter how many cases there are. The caveat is that you will be denied any medical assistance if needed. You will be in your home no matter how sick you get.

I'd be good with that tbh. I have weak lungs so I'm somebody who could probably be really in danger from covid but it's not like anybody cares. I can't allow myself to be stagnant.

The American 24/7 Hustle culture has really hit peak insanity.

I don't like putting s**t on hold either, but damn, saying you'd rather die than lose a couple of months of work is beyond me...

The analogy I've come to think of is that I think it's absurd that you are told to seek shelter for distant lightning.  Sure, a thunderstorm in the distance marginally increases your risk of getting struck, but the point of life is not simply to maximize the number of years you are physically alive.  At a certain point, the reward of actually living your life outweighs the marginal increase in risk.  Don't get me wrong- I want to live a long life, but that's not the only thing that I want.

Plus, I know that, if I were to die today, I would be going to Heaven.

If I died I'd be going straight to hell lol

[GeorgiaModerate]

If I die, I die.

There's no point shutting down society and ruining younger people's lives just to save a 47-year-old man like me who won't be around much longer anyway.

Now, because of the lockdowns, life is pretty much over for anyone in America between 18 and 45.

The last sentence is one of the most incredibly selfish and dumb things I've ever read on this forum (and that's s high bar).  Life is "over" because of the lockdowns?  No, your life is paused and affected by it, for a few months or so - a very short fraction of a lifetime for most people.  It's only "over" for those who get the virus and die from it, which is what we're trying to minimize. You can't put up with some inconvenience for a while to help control a deadly disease? It's not going to last forever.  In a year or two we'll look back and tell war stories about this time.  it's not the end of the world.

[Omega21]

If I die, I die.

There's no point shutting down society and ruining younger people's lives just to save a 47-year-old man like me who won't be around much longer anyway.

Now, because of the lockdowns, life is pretty much over for anyone in America between 18 and 45.

I don't get your arguments?

Most of the EU shut down for 2 months, opened with mandatory face masks in certain places (such as public transport) and obviously banned large gatherings and places such as night clubs but that's about it now.

We're coasting on almost no cases living normal lives. Sure, you can't go to a crammed club or go to a football game, but that's not exactly having a profound effect on me. And that's after a lot of the EU countries screwed up their response big time.

A Biergarten and a cold one will have to do for now.

Now, the fact that the US is incapable of having a coordinated federal response that brings the virus down back to manageable levels nationwide and is unable to introduce anything mandatory (like mandatory masks or actually forbidding any large gatherings such as rallies or crammed indoor spaces) is a completely different story.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/21 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>

6/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,007,449 (+20,274 | Δ Change: ↓39.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 112,469 (+412 | Δ Change: ↓38.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

6/8:

• Cases: 2,026,493 (+19,044 | Δ Change: ↓6.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.95%)
• Deaths: 113,055 (+586 | Δ Change: ↑42.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

6/9:

• Cases: 2,045,549 (+19,056 | Δ Change: ↑0.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)
• Deaths: 114,148 (+1,093 | Δ Change: ↑86.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

6/10:

• Cases: 2,066,508 (+20,959 | Δ Change: ↑9.98% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 115,137 (+989 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.87%)

6/11:

• Cases: 2,089,701 (+23,193 | Δ Change: ↑10.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 116,034 (+897 | Δ Change: ↓9.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

6/12:

• Cases: 2,116,922 (+27,221 | Δ Change: ↑17.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 116,825 (+791 | Δ Change: ↓11.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/13:

• Cases: 2,142,224 (+25,302 | Δ Change: ↓7.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)
• Deaths: 117,527 (+702 | Δ Change: ↓11.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
• Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:

• Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
• Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:

• Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:

• Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18:

• Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
• Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19:

• Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
• Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/20 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 2,330,578 (+33,388 | Δ Change: ↓0.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
• Deaths: 121,980 (+573 | Δ Change: ↓20.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

6/21 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,356,657 (+26,079 | Δ Change: ↓21.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 122,247 (+267 | Δ Change: ↓53.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Now, the fact that the US is incapable of having a coordinated federal response that brings the virus down back to manageable levels nationwide and is unable to introduce anything mandatory (like mandatory masks or actually forbidding any large gatherings such as rallies or crammed indoor spaces) is a completely different story.

I also generally have a hard time with making things mandatory. Sometimes it's necessary, but usually I expect people to exercise personal responsibility.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

More people need to be talking about how far the deaths have dropped.  At this point, deaths are down nearly 90% from a couple months ago, despite case counts that are close to where they were then.  There could be a few theories, all with different implications:

1. It's because current outbreaks are concentrated in younger people, as older people are continuing to voluntarily socially distance even when it's no longer required.

2. New cases are actually down significantly, but we're testing more.

3. Deaths are a lagging indicator that will rise substantially soon.

4. The virus has mutated to become much less deadly.

#3 is getting less and less convincing by the day, as cases haven't risen that much nationally from a couple weeks ago, so, even if deaths rise somewhat, it doesn't tell much of the story.  #2 seems like it might have a little merit, but the national positive rate has only fallen from about 10% to 5-6%, so it's not the story for the whole drop in deaths.  I think the biggest factors are some combination of #1 and #4, but it's hard to give an exact degree.  If #4 is significant, that would obviously have massive implications going forward.

[Meclazine for Israel]

If I died I'd be going straight to hell lol

Hell has made one extra space for you in July, 2020.

For citizens of Nashville, Tennessee, the end is nigh.

https://www.newsweek.com/tennessee-newspaper-apologizes-running-horrific-anti-islam-ad-1512415

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbCu3cbX0AEqaem.jpg

This article was published in "The Tennessean" newspaper 21 June 2020.

On July 18, 2020, fundamental Islamic terrorists are going to detonate a nuclear weapon.

That will really cap off a big 2020.

And those fine people are not the only End of Times cult in Nashville either:



I must admit, I much prefer the town being over run by cats as opposed to the nuclear apocalypse.

[Calthrina950]

More people need to be talking about how far the deaths have dropped.  At this point, deaths are down nearly 90% from a couple months ago, despite case counts that are close to where they were then.  There could be a few theories, all with different implications:

1. It's because current outbreaks are concentrated in younger people, as older people are continuing to voluntarily socially distance even when it's no longer required.

2. New cases are actually down significantly, but we're testing more.

3. Deaths are a lagging indicator that will rise substantially soon.

4. The virus has mutated to become much less deadly.

#3 is getting less and less convincing by the day, as cases haven't risen that much nationally from a couple weeks ago, so, even if deaths rise somewhat, it doesn't tell much of the story.  #2 seems like it might have a little merit, but the national positive rate has only fallen from about 10% to 5-6%, so it's not the story for the whole drop in deaths.  I think the biggest factors are some combination of #1 and #4, but it's hard to give an exact degree.  If #4 is significant, that would obviously have massive implications going forward.

We've had detailed arguments on this thread in which it has been suggested that deaths are a lagging indicator, and that they will increase soon. However, I'm inclined to believe that the virus may be mutating into a less deadly form. I think it is definitely true that younger people are much more active now than before, and could account for a larger share of the new cases.

[cg41386]

Now, the fact that the US is incapable of having a coordinated federal response that brings the virus down back to manageable levels nationwide and is unable to introduce anything mandatory (like mandatory masks or actually forbidding any large gatherings such as rallies or crammed indoor spaces) is a completely different story.

I also generally have a hard time with making things mandatory. Sometimes it's necessary, but usually I expect people to exercise personal responsibility.

Yeah, good luck with the personal responsibility part.

[Dr. Arch]

I hope to God that they don't shut everything down again or I'm gonna be pissed.

Let those of us who don't give a sh**t take our chances. Possibly getting covid comes with the territory and we all know it.

The people who are so worried should just stay in their house. The Stasi aren't going to come to your house and force you to go to Red Lobster, damn.

Honestly there should be a deliberate infection program for people like you. If you want, you will  be deliberately infected but will be placed under house arrest (to prevent spread) as long as you test positive. Afterwards, you are free to do whatever you want no matter how many cases there are. The caveat is that you will be denied any medical assistance if needed. You will be in your home no matter how sick you get.

I'd be good with that tbh. I have weak lungs so I'm somebody who could probably be really in danger from covid but it's not like anybody cares. I can't allow myself to be stagnant.

The American 24/7 Hustle culture has really hit peak insanity.

I don't like putting s**t on hold either, but damn, saying you'd rather die than lose a couple of months of work is beyond me...

It's baffling to me too.

[emailking]

Why would it evolve to be less deadly? If it killed too fast too spread I could understand that but most people aren't killed. Just random?

[jamestroll]

I do not care that Covid-19 is spreading rapidly.

We. Must. Keep. The. Economy. Open.  At. Any. Cost.

The last lockdown resulted in no coherent plan to reopen the economy.

[T'Chenka]

Now, the fact that the US is incapable of having a coordinated federal response that brings the virus down back to manageable levels nationwide and is unable to introduce anything mandatory (like mandatory masks or actually forbidding any large gatherings such as rallies or crammed indoor spaces) is a completely different story.

I also generally have a hard time with making things mandatory. Sometimes it's necessary, but usually I expect people to exercise personal responsibility.

Do you have any concept of how narcissistic North American culture is, especially USA? Not only will upwards of 50% (!!!) of people be socially irresponsible, those that ARE responsible will be mocked and harassed for social distancing and wearing a mask. That's just Canada mind you, amd America is worse.

You can't trust North Americans to be socially responsible because, on average, they don't care about anybody but themselves and are below average (or terrible) community members. The fact that you're trusting your fellow Americans to take things seriously and behave appropriately is mind-blowing. They will NOT hesitate to get somebody else killed (and blake it on somebody else) if it means they can avoid any tiny inconvenience whatsoever.

[T'Chenka]

I do not care that Covid-19 is spreading rapidly.

We. Must. Keep. The. Economy. Open.  At. Any. Cost.

This post is disgusting IMO.

[wbrocks67]

I do not care that Covid-19 is spreading rapidly.

We. Must. Keep. The. Economy. Open.  At. Any. Cost.

The last lockdown resulted in no coherent plan to reopen the economy.

Why do people keep acting like this has to be extremes in one way or the other? We can keep the economy open (mostly) but still be safe with distancing, masks, etc.

The problem is that many states just flung the entire economy open like nothing happened and with no restrictions and THAT is the problem, because people can't be bothered to do the f**king bare minimum.

However, for you to say that you 'don't care' that it's spreading rapidly and thus killing more people is incredibly insane to me. Not only that, but speak for yourself. Some states did NOT have a coherent plan, but some, like PA where i live, HAVE had one. And that's why we've been able to mitigate cases actually pretty damn well up to this point.

[wbrocks67]

More people need to be talking about how far the deaths have dropped.  At this point, deaths are down nearly 90% from a couple months ago, despite case counts that are close to where they were then.  There could be a few theories, all with different implications:

1. It's because current outbreaks are concentrated in younger people, as older people are continuing to voluntarily socially distance even when it's no longer required.

2. New cases are actually down significantly, but we're testing more.

3. Deaths are a lagging indicator that will rise substantially soon.

4. The virus has mutated to become much less deadly.

#3 is getting less and less convincing by the day, as cases haven't risen that much nationally from a couple weeks ago, so, even if deaths rise somewhat, it doesn't tell much of the story.  #2 seems like it might have a little merit, but the national positive rate has only fallen from about 10% to 5-6%, so it's not the story for the whole drop in deaths.  I think the biggest factors are some combination of #1 and #4, but it's hard to give an exact degree.  If #4 is significant, that would obviously have massive implications going forward.

Cases have only started exploding in the past week or two, so it remains to be seen if deaths are a lagging indicator at this point. I would assume they are, but the jury is still out.

[wbrocks67]

Something a doctor said the other day resonated with me:

When a doctor or medical professional/dentist/whatever, wears gloves to do work on you, or they wear a mask (pre-covid) to not get germs on you when they are close, or wash their hands before they touch you... any of these standard safety precautions that are just NORMAL health protocols - none of these people say 'oh i'm not gonna do that because it's personal choice' and make it political. You just don't. Because it's what you're supposed to do because of HEALTH PROTOCOLS.

So what is the difference in wearing a mask? It's not political. It's not about "personal choice" or "personal freedom." It's a f**king health protocol for public safety to keep people from spreading a deadly virus. Like why is everyone so dense about this?

Leave it up to America to not want to do literally the EASIEST thing you could do to stop a deadly virus from spreading because "muh personal freedom"

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If I died I'd be going straight to hell lol

Hell has made one extra space for you in July, 2020.

For citizens of Nashville, Tennessee, the end is nigh.

https://www.newsweek.com/tennessee-newspaper-apologizes-running-horrific-anti-islam-ad-1512415

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbCu3cbX0AEqaem.jpg

This article was published in "The Tennessean" newspaper 21 June 2020.

On July 18, 2020, fundamental Islamic terrorists are going to detonate a nuclear weapon.

That will really cap off a big 2020.

And those fine people are not the only End of Times cult in Nashville either:



I must admit, I much prefer the town being over run by cats as opposed to the nuclear apocalypse.

You obviously never had to deal with litter boxes.

[Calthrina950]

Something a doctor said the other day resonated with me:

When a doctor or medical professional/dentist/whatever, wears gloves to do work on you, or they wear a mask (pre-covid) to not get germs on you when they are close, or wash their hands before they touch you... any of these standard safety precautions that are just NORMAL health protocols - none of these people say 'oh i'm not gonna do that because it's personal choice' and make it political. You just don't. Because it's what you're supposed to do because of HEALTH PROTOCOLS.

So what is the difference in wearing a mask? It's not political. It's not about "personal choice" or "personal freedom." It's a f**king health protocol for public safety to keep people from spreading a deadly virus. Like why is everyone so dense about this?

Leave it up to America to not want to do literally the EASIEST thing you could do to stop a deadly virus from spreading because "muh personal freedom"

Because for many people, mandating them to wear a mask does constitute an intrusion on their constitutional rights, and donning them should be a matter of personal responsibility. A few Governors have recognized this (such as my Governor in Colorado), but have had no problems with reiterating the rights of businesses to deny service to maskless customers, if they wish. That's probably the best and most effective way that one can encourage mask usage. If people find that they will not be permitted entry into the businesses they need without a mask, that may compel them to change their behavior.

Unfortunately, too many people in this country are too selfish and too arrogant to don masks unless if they are mandated to by force of law. And even then, many people have resisted.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/NYTScience/status/1274925886148694016

[Bandit3 the Worker]

According to Worldometers, yesterday had the fewest deaths in the U.S. of any day since March 23. If it takes 2 weeks to die of this virus, those who died on March 23 caught it back when there were only a handful of cases in the U.S.

The 7-day rolling average is the lowest since March 31, so those who died then would have caught it back when the exponential growth was occurring.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1275061777911463936

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1275061777911463936

This is an interesting page that I’m surprised I hadn’t looked into before.
In particular they seem to show a strong negative relationshipbetween Rt today and Rt three months ago.  

But a couple of the Rt number of three months ago struck me as strange.  In particular, two of the states with the lowest Rt three months ago (March 22) were New York and Michigan.  But New York went from having about 2000 cases a day on March 22 (7 day average), to 9000 cases a day two weeks later on April 5.  Michigan similarly went from around 250 cases a day on March to 1500 cases a day on April 5.  The states were right at the beginning of some of the fastest growth the virus has experienced in this country three months ago.  How could they have the lowest Rts?

[seb_pard]

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1275061777911463936

This is an interesting page that I’m surprised I hadn’t looked into before.
In particular they seem to show a strong negative relationshipbetween Rt today and Rt three months ago.  

But a couple of the Rt number of three months ago struck me as strange.  In particular, two of the states with the lowest Rt three months ago (March 22) were New York and Michigan.  But New York went from having about 2000 cases a day on March 22 (7 day average), to 9000 cases a day two weeks later on April 5.  Michigan similarly went from around 250 cases a day on March to 1500 cases a day on April 5.  The states were right at the beginning of some of the fastest growth the virus has experienced in this country three months ago.  How could they have the lowest Rts?

It is also weird that the Rts from two months ago look a lot like the Rt from today, but the Rts from one month ago look completely different.  Why would this be? 

There is something wrong with the '3 months ago' graph, because you can see the evolution of NY below and Rt at March 22th was 1.19. The '3 months ago' says 0.76, which is the estimate from April 3rd.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/tplohetski/status/1275144580397137920