COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[NHI]

https://twitter.com/rebeccaballhaus/status/1272603635004985345

Galaxy brain at work.

If we stop reporting the jobless numbers, then we'll have less unemployment....

[Landslide Lyndon]

Some pretty YUUUUUGE news from today's presser.

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1272936921128370179

[Smeulders]

https://twitter.com/schaller67/status/1272878014355984384

A dangerous analysis. By their very nature, you'll see more extreme outcomes with small counties. There are also more of them than large urban Clinton counties. Even if there is no link at all, you'd expect the top of the death per capita lists to be small (Trump) counties.

[Roll Roons]

Some pretty YUUUUUGE news from today's presser.

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1272936921128370179

And people though Mark Kirk's brain was screwed up after he had the stroke.

[Smeulders]

With the recent spike in cases in the South, it occurred to me to check something out with respect to the common argument that deaths are a lagging indicator of infections/cases.  Thus when we see a spike in cases, we shouldn't expect to see a spike in deaths until several weeks later.

This may intuitively feel true, but empirically it has not been true, at least in places that have had major outbreaks. I looked through my data for the peak in the seven-day averages for cases and deaths of the worst hit countries and states.  Most hit their peak in both within a few days of each other:

Countries:
Italy: Cases peaked March 26, deaths peaked April 2
Spain: Cases peaked April 1, deaths peaked April 3
France: Cases peaked April 9, deaths peaked April 8
UK: Cases peaked April 14, deaths peaked April 13

Early states:
Washington: Cases peaked April 9, deaths peaked April 10
New York: Cases peaked April 10, deaths peaked April 13
Michigan: Cases peaked April 7, deaths peaked April 16
New Jersey: Cases peaked April 7, deaths peaked April 21 (though there was a long plateau for both)
Connecticut: Cases peaked April 22, deaths peaked April 25
Pennsylvania: Cases peaked April 10, deaths peaked May 5 (this is the biggest exception)

More recently:
Illinois: Cases peaked May 12, deaths peaked May 13
Maryland: Cases peaked May 24, deaths peaked May 1 (?!?, also a long plateau for both)
Virginia: Cases peaked May 31, deaths peaked May 28

Interesting, I wouldn't have expected that. One thing to keep in mind though is change in testing. If testing is increasing, you'd expect the peak of people testing positive (=\= actual cases) to be closer together than the peak of actual cases and deaths.

Comparing peak to peak is also dangerous. I don't know how the distribution of time until death after diagnosis is, but this might give issues. For example, if 5% of people die the die after diagnosis, and then 1% the next 10 days thereafter, then the peak of deaths is going to be quite close after the peak in cases. New cases at time t is still going to be important for deaths at time t+10. (This is mitigated somewhat by the trajectory of cases, which descend slowly after the peak)

[It’s so Joever]

With the recent spike in cases in the South, it occurred to me to check something out with respect to the common argument that deaths are a lagging indicator of infections/cases.  Thus when we see a spike in cases, we shouldn't expect to see a spike in deaths until several weeks later.

This may intuitively feel true, but empirically it has not been true, at least in places that have had major outbreaks. I looked through my data for the peak in the seven-day averages for cases and deaths of the worst hit countries and states.  Most hit their peak in both within a few days of each other:

Countries:
Italy: Cases peaked March 26, deaths peaked April 2
Spain: Cases peaked April 1, deaths peaked April 3
France: Cases peaked April 9, deaths peaked April 8
UK: Cases peaked April 14, deaths peaked April 13

Early states:
Washington: Cases peaked April 9, deaths peaked April 10
New York: Cases peaked April 10, deaths peaked April 13
Michigan: Cases peaked April 7, deaths peaked April 16
New Jersey: Cases peaked April 7, deaths peaked April 21 (though there was a long plateau for both)
Connecticut: Cases peaked April 22, deaths peaked April 25
Pennsylvania: Cases peaked April 10, deaths peaked May 5 (this is the biggest exception)

More recently:
Illinois: Cases peaked May 12, deaths peaked May 13
Maryland: Cases peaked May 24, deaths peaked May 1 (?!?, also a long plateau for both)
Virginia: Cases peaked May 31, deaths peaked May 28

Yeah...that’s definitely a bit of cherry picked data right there.
I was genuinely interested in what you posted, so I decided to look myself.
I took every country with more than 10,000 total cases and that was able to test over 50,000 people per 1 million (I used Worldometers for my data)
I used a moving 7 day average.
I also did take into account a couple of very blatant outliers.
After doing that, the data I got was this...

(Day of peak deaths)-(Day of peak cases)
USA: +12
Russia: +22
UK: -1
Spain: +2
Italy: +7
Germany: +16
Canada: +14
Qatar: +8
Belgium: +4
Belarus: +23
UAE: -15
Singapore: +6
Portugal: +13
Kuwait: -6
Switzerland: +11
Ireland: +5
Israel: +16
Bahrain: 0
Austria: +13
Kazakhstan: +14
Denmark: -1

The pure mean of the data was 7.8, indicating about 8 days of lag.
I did remove two countries which had peaks today (because it could go higher for all we know) but it just gave me 7.9 (not significant)
When weighed based on number of cases, however, the mean actually increased to 11.1 (about 11 days lag)
The medians also were similar in all cases, meaning that the outliers must have balanced eachother out.
I did this on my phone so I’m sure there are a couple of random errors, but I will check on that later today.

Your data isn’t wrong, but it isn’t a large enough sample at the very least.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

With the recent spike in cases in the South, it occurred to me to check something out with respect to the common argument that deaths are a lagging indicator of infections/cases.  Thus when we see a spike in cases, we shouldn't expect to see a spike in deaths until several weeks later.

This may intuitively feel true, but empirically it has not been true, at least in places that have had major outbreaks. I looked through my data for the peak in the seven-day averages for cases and deaths of the worst hit countries and states.  Most hit their peak in both within a few days of each other:

Countries:
Italy: Cases peaked March 26, deaths peaked April 2
Spain: Cases peaked April 1, deaths peaked April 3
France: Cases peaked April 9, deaths peaked April 8
UK: Cases peaked April 14, deaths peaked April 13

Early states:
Washington: Cases peaked April 9, deaths peaked April 10
New York: Cases peaked April 10, deaths peaked April 13
Michigan: Cases peaked April 7, deaths peaked April 16
New Jersey: Cases peaked April 7, deaths peaked April 21 (though there was a long plateau for both)
Connecticut: Cases peaked April 22, deaths peaked April 25
Pennsylvania: Cases peaked April 10, deaths peaked May 5 (this is the biggest exception)

More recently:
Illinois: Cases peaked May 12, deaths peaked May 13
Maryland: Cases peaked May 24, deaths peaked May 1 (?!?, also a long plateau for both)
Virginia: Cases peaked May 31, deaths peaked May 28

Yeah...that’s definitely a bit of cherry picked data right there.
I was genuinely interested in what you posted, so I decided to look myself.
I took every country with more than 10,000 total cases and that was able to test over 50,000 people per 1 million (I used Worldometers for my data)
I used a moving 7 day average.
I also did take into account a couple of very blatant outliers.
After doing that, the data I got was this...

(Day of peak deaths)-(Day of peak cases)
USA: +12
Russia: +22
UK: -1
Spain: +2
Italy: +7
Germany: +16
Canada: +14
Qatar: +8
Belgium: +4
Belarus: +23
UAE: -15
Singapore: +6
Portugal: +13
Kuwait: -6
Switzerland: +11
Ireland: +5
Israel: +16
Bahrain: 0
Austria: +13
Kazakhstan: +14
Denmark: -1

The pure mean of the data was 7.8, indicating about 8 days of lag.
I did remove two countries which had peaks today (because it could go higher for all we know) but it just gave me 7.9 (not significant)
When weighed based on number of cases, however, the mean actually increased to 11.1 (about 11 days lag)
The medians also were similar in all cases, meaning that the outliers must have balanced eachother out.
I did this on my phone so I’m sure there are a couple of random errors, but I will check on that later today.

Your data isn’t wrong, but it isn’t a large enough sample at the very least.

What do you get if you weight by number of deaths?  This seems like a much better measure of the seriousness of the outbreak in a particular country.  (I’d also be very skeptical of a measure that assigns a huge weight to Russia.  Their CFR is just implausibly low relative to what we have seen everywhere else comparable.)

And to the extent I was “cherry picking”, I just picked the Euro countries with the most deaths. It seems silly to include a country like Qatar where the peak in average deaths was literally 3 people.

[GP270watch]

 Oxford in the U.K. says that a steroid helps the sickest Covid-19 patients reduce deaths by 1/3. The steroid is safe, cheap, widely available according to them.

Coronavirus: Dexamethasone proves first life-saving drug

 Could hopefully be a key part of an effective drug cocktail if the results are replicated.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Authorities in Beijing have described the city’s coronavirus outbreak as “extremely severe” as dozens more cases emerged, travel from the city was curtailed and its schools and universities shut down.

Beijing residents were told to avoid “non-essential” travel out of the capital, and anyone entering or leaving will be tested for Covid-19.

Additional neighbourhoods were fenced off on Tuesday, with 27 now designated medium risk, which means authorities can impose stricter restrictions on the movement of people and cars and can carry out temperature checks. One has been designated high risk.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/16/beijing-coronavirus-outbreak-travel-restricted-china-severe-measures

[It’s so Joever]

Authorities in Beijing have described the city’s coronavirus outbreak as “extremely severe” as dozens more cases emerged, travel from the city was curtailed and its schools and universities shut down.

Beijing residents were told to avoid “non-essential” travel out of the capital, and anyone entering or leaving will be tested for Covid-19.

Additional neighbourhoods were fenced off on Tuesday, with 27 now designated medium risk, which means authorities can impose stricter restrictions on the movement of people and cars and can carry out temperature checks. One has been designated high risk.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/16/beijing-coronavirus-outbreak-travel-restricted-china-severe-measures

Indeed, I bet if China had the same number of cases as us (with even more population as a whole) they would be completely shutdown.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1273016873945313280

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

+3,909 new cases in Texas alone today on Worldometer, and they have not even finished updating for the day...

The previous high was 2,437 on June 10, which at the time seemed like a shockingly high # and an aberration.

Similarly, there are record highs for other states in the South/Southwest like Florida, Arizona, and Nevada, and other southern/southwestern states that are not at their all-time highs (today) are close to them and it seems like only a matter of time before they exceed them and make new highs in a few days, or maybe in a week. There is noise and fluctuation in the trend, but the general direction seems clear across states. Up, up, and away.

The virus is a test of societies and nations, and USA has failed the test. Essentially every other developed 1st world nation has more or less managed to bring the virus more or less under control, except for the USA. Those of posters/readers us in the US well and truly live in a failed state.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

+3,909 new cases in Texas alone today on Worldometer, and they have not even finished updating for the day...

There's a note underneath the chart that says this includes 1,500 old cases from state prisons.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Latest US vs. European case and death graphs

I had to enter these a bit early today, so it's likely today's US numbers will change very slightly before worldometers closes out their day.

Very good numbers this week especially in the UK and Italian death totals, which are both down more than 25% week-over-week.  US deaths were down about 15% over the same period.

Today was significant in tracking US deaths in that the "Rest of County" average is now at exactly half of its peak on April 26.  All five states with the highest death total (excluded from "Rest of Country") are down much more, with NY down 94% from its peak death average, and NJ, MA, and PA all down 75-80%.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

+3,909 new cases in Texas alone today on Worldometer, and they have not even finished updating for the day...

There's a note underneath the chart that says this includes 1,500 old cases from state prisons.

It is up to +4,412 now (reminder, the previous  was 2,437) and STILL not done reporting for the day, so even if you want to declare prisoners un-persons, still looks like record highs. As for prisoners, unfortunately they still need treatment and take up limited medical capacity, and the virus can be (and no doubt has been) spread from prisoners to staff and visitors, and from there to the general population.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1273016873945313280

Wow, thanks for ignoring us Westerners!
I assume this means we are legally allowed to secede?

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1273016873945313280

Wow, thanks for ignoring us Westerners!
I assume this means we are legally allowed to secede?

That actually makes sense.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/16 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>

5/31: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,837,165 (+20,345 | Δ Change: ↓12.65% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 106,190 (+633 | Δ Change: ↓37.64% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/1:

• Cases: 1,859,323 (+22,158 | Δ Change: ↑8.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.21%)
• Deaths: 106,925 (+735 | Δ Change: ↑16.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)

6/2:

• Cases: 1,881,205 (+21,882 | Δ Change: ↓1.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 108,059 (+1,134 | Δ Change: ↑54.29% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

6/3:

• Cases: 1,901,783 (+20,578 | Δ Change: ↓5.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.09%)
• Deaths: 109,142 (+1,083 | Δ Change: ↓4.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)

6/4:

• Cases: 1,924,051 (+22,268 | Δ Change: ↑8.21% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 110,173 (+1,031 | Δ Change: ↓4.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

6/5:

• Cases: 1,953,423 (+29,372 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑1.53%)
• Deaths: 111,384 (+1,211 | Δ Change: ↑17.46% | Σ Increase: ↑1.10%)

6/6:

• Cases: 1,987,175 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↑14.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.73%)
• Deaths: 112,057 (+673 | Δ Change: ↓44.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,007,449 (+20,274 | Δ Change: ↓39.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 112,469 (+412 | Δ Change: ↓38.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

6/8:

• Cases: 2,026,493 (+19,044 | Δ Change: ↓6.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.95%)
• Deaths: 113,055 (+586 | Δ Change: ↑42.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

6/9:

• Cases: 2,045,549 (+19,056 | Δ Change: ↑0.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)
• Deaths: 114,148 (+1,093 | Δ Change: ↑86.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

6/10:

• Cases: 2,066,508 (+20,959 | Δ Change: ↑9.98% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 115,137 (+989 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.87%)

6/11:

• Cases: 2,089,701 (+23,193 | Δ Change: ↑10.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 116,034 (+897 | Δ Change: ↓9.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

6/12:

• Cases: 2,116,922 (+27,221 | Δ Change: ↑17.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 116,825 (+791 | Δ Change: ↓11.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/13:

• Cases: 2,142,224 (+25,302 | Δ Change: ↓7.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)
• Deaths: 117,527 (+702 | Δ Change: ↓11.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
• Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
• Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16 (Today):

• Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

[emailking]

A Tuesday below 1K deaths is very good.

[jimrtex]

+3,909 new cases in Texas alone today on Worldometer, and they have not even finished updating for the day...

There's a note underneath the chart that says this includes 1,500 old cases from state prisons.

It is up to +4,412 now (reminder, the previous  was 2,437) and STILL not done reporting for the day, so even if you want to declare prisoners un-persons, still looks like record highs. As for prisoners, unfortunately they still need treatment and take up limited medical capacity, and the virus can be (and no doubt has been) spread from prisoners to staff and visitors, and from there to the general population.

If a prisoner was infected in April and reported in June, does it mean that the spread is happening now?

Let's take a look at Anderson County. Before today, there were 102 cases total. 887 were added today.

But if we look at the TDCJ dashboard, for the Beto, Gurney, and Michael units in Anderson County.

Gurney: Offenders: 3 active, 145 recovered.
Beto: Offenders: 10 active, 292 recovered.
Michael: Offenders: 5 active, 426 recovered.

That is, most of the "new" cases are no longer active cases.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1273016873945313280

Wow, thanks for ignoring us Westerners!
I assume this means we are legally allowed to secede?

Statistically, the West doesn't exist. Our clout at the national level is an artifact. You've got the West Coast and then nothing until you get to the Midwest (and eastern Texas).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gov. Ron DeSantis said 260 workers at the Orlando International Airport have tested positive for the coronavirus after nearly 500 employees were tested.

“[An]Airport in Central Florida had a couple of cases, they did the contract tracing. They looked [at] almost 500 workers [and] 260 people working close together were positive, 52 percent positivity rate on that one,” DeSantis said.

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/06/16/gov-desantis-shares-latest-update-on-covid-19-after-florida-reports-2783-new-cases/

[Brittain33]

DeSantis screwed up. 2 out of 500 airport employees tested recently were positive. The airport has had 260 employees diagnosed with COVID since mid-March.

[ProudModerate2]

Every GOP senator who attended a news conference today wore a mask.
Via CNN Live Updates.

A group of GOP senators all wore face masks to a news conference to where they unveiled their police reform plan.

When each senator approached the lectern to speak, he or she removed his or her mask. The senators put their masks back on when they returned to the sides of the podium.

This is in contrast to how the White House how handled events and news conferences in the pandemic: In the Rose Garden on Tuesday afternoon, President Trump announced an executive order on policing without a mask on.

And by the look of a video the White House sent out on Twitter shortly afterward, almost no one in attendance wore a mask either.

I'm shocked, but very happy to see they are wearing masks.
True leaders lead by example.
It's also a big "f*** you" to trump (and Pence).

[PSOL]

Rep. Ilhan Omar's father dies due to coronavirus