COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

People are not taking it seriously anymore. I'm still making very limited shopping trips and now besides the staff, I am one of maybe five people wearing a mask at the grocery store. Majority of essential workers in all stores I see are still wearing mask. Don't know if it's company policy or self-interest but it's good to see.

I had to go to the hardware store the other day, and it seemed about two-thirds were properly wearing masks - I specify "properly" because there were a definitely a few people who had a mask over their mouth but with their nose out.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Deaths are also a problematic indicator for two reasons - first, they are a lagging indicator, generally they are roughly 2-3 weeks behind. And secondly, the quality of care is likely getting better over time, hopefully reducing the fatality rate as the medical system and doctors gain experience with things like plasma therapy, appropriate use of ventilators, and as more studies are completed showing the effectiveness or counterproductiveness of various experimental drugs etc.

I don’t understand why improved treatment would be considered problematic.  If the virus is something that can be consistently treated sucessfully, it is nowhere near as concerning if more people are being infected.   

It would be like hearing about an increase in chlamydia rates.  A hundred years ago, this might call for significant public policy intervention.  Today, this would basically just call for more testing rather than a fundamental change in the way we live our daily lives. 

That’s not to say we are there yet, but if fatalities have fallen 60% while cases have remained constant (as seems to be true over the last 2 months), it suggests we are making real progress toward this.

[It’s so Joever]

Remdesivir and plasma probably helps to an extent, but we are testing far more people.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Deaths are also a problematic indicator for two reasons - first, they are a lagging indicator, generally they are roughly 2-3 weeks behind. And secondly, the quality of care is likely getting better over time, hopefully reducing the fatality rate as the medical system and doctors gain experience with things like plasma therapy, appropriate use of ventilators, and as more studies are completed showing the effectiveness or counterproductiveness of various experimental drugs etc.

I don’t understand why improved treatment would be considered problematic.  If the virus is something that can be consistently treated sucessfully, it is nowhere near as concerning if more people are being infected.  

It would be like hearing about an increase in chlamydia rates.  A hundred years ago, this might call for significant public policy intervention.  Today, this would basically just call for more testing rather than a fundamental change in the way we live our daily lives.  

That’s not to say we are there yet, but if fatalities have fallen 60% while cases have remained constant (as seems to be true over the last 2 months), it suggests we are making real progress toward this.

It is obviously good if treatment becomes more effective and the fatality rate therefore trends down - indeed, I said exactly that ("hopefully reducing the fatality rate").

But for purposes of using death data to project the course of the epidemic, if the fatality rate is decreasing, you need to take that into account. If the fatality rate is declining, then even if the number of actual/true infections remains constant (or is slightly increasing below a certain threshold), then death data will show a downward trend (like we have generally observed so far).

However, if you then conclude that the fact that deaths are declining means that the epidemic is being brought under control, that conclusion would not be correct because infections would still be spreading and causing various suffering/problems short of death. In addition, unless the fatality rate dropped all the way to zero due to better treatment, then if actual true infections continued to grow, eventually the actual raw # of deaths could begin to increase simply because greater absolute #s of people would be infected at any particular time, even if any individual case had a lower individual probability of death. That would be especially the case if it got to the point where medical capacity was exceeded (and there are now a number of states reportedly getting close to full in their ICUs), at which point the fatality rate may start increasing again (in addition to the raw underlying # of serious cases increasing).

For these reasons, in principle one would think that hospitalizations would be the best metric to look at rather than fatalities or tests/positivity rate, but the problem with that is the data for hospitalizations is very incomplete/not consistently reported.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Why do all these stories keep using new cases as their central metric?  If you are trying to argue that the virus is an escalating problem, demonstrate it through stats on hospitalizations or deaths.

They keep using new cases but not the percent positive rate, which is way, way down from April.

You can't directly compare the positive rates from today with two months ago because tests aren't administered at random. Tests were being rationed two/three months ago to people and communities which were more likely to have positive cases; in part many of the people who are being tested now are people who had no reason to believe they were sick during the first wave (e.g., office workers who were working from home for two months and require tests to come back to work).

Even still, several states are reporting increases in positives cases that outstrip the increased testing. Several states are reporting more positive cases now than they were two weeks ago, when the number of tests wasn't that much different than today.

It's completely contrary to science to use the wrong metric for a pandemic, yet it continues.

I don't understand why you are appealing to science when you appear not to understand very much of it.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I don't understand why you are appealing to science when you appear not to understand very much of it.

I know more about science than the guy who came up with that model that said America would have 2.2 million deaths by now.

I do my homework on this.

[emailking]

I don't understand why you are appealing to science when you appear not to understand very much of it.

I know more about science than the guy who came up with that model that said America would have 2.2 million deaths by now.

I do my homework on this.

Didn't that figure assume no social distancing or lockdowns?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I don't understand why you are appealing to science when you appear not to understand very much of it.

I know more about science than the guy who came up with that model that said America would have 2.2 million deaths by now.

I do my homework on this.

Didn't that figure assume no social distancing or lockdowns?

That figure was so unrealistic that I have no reason to trust anything put out by the media ever again.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I don't understand why you are appealing to science when you appear not to understand very much of it.

I know more about science than the guy who came up with that model that said America would have 2.2 million deaths by now.

I do my homework on this.

You clearly don't know more about science than him, because if you did know more about science than him you would know that Ferguson/Imperial and the Ferguson/Imperial model did not say that America would have 2.2 million deaths by now.

[It’s so Joever]

I don't understand why you are appealing to science when you appear not to understand very much of it.

I know more about science than the guy who came up with that model that said America would have 2.2 million deaths by now.

I do my homework on this.

You clearly don't know more about science than him, because if you did know more about science than him you would know that the Ferguson/Imperial model did not say that America would have 2.2 million deaths by now.

Just forget it.
Bandit doesn’t care about the disease in any way, shape, or form. He just wants to reopen for #populist reasons. He has switched several times between using Worldometers, JHU, and Nate Silver’s data all to give the lowest number, he has misinterpreted data for his own purposes, and is even doing it now with the study (which was giving a worst case scenario if America did nothing)

Don’t even try arguing at this point, it’s like talking to a walnut.

[Dr. Arch]

I don't understand why you are appealing to science when you appear not to understand very much of it.

I know more about science than the guy who came up with that model that said America would have 2.2 million deaths by now.

I do my homework on this.

I'm sorry, but this is buffoonish at best. You clearly don't know what you're talking about. You should probably brush up on how to do research before you try actually doing it.

[It’s so Joever]

I don't understand why you are appealing to science when you appear not to understand very much of it.

I know more about science than the guy who came up with that model that said America would have 2.2 million deaths by now.

I do my homework on this.

Didn't that figure assume no social distancing or lockdowns?

That figure was so unrealistic that I have no reason to trust anything put out by the media ever again.

...I mean, it’s not exactly that insane.
Assuming a 1% mortality rate (which honestly is probably what it is close too, no matter what cherry picked German village you find) and assuming that without social distancing and any policies whatsoever, about 2/3rds of the country will be infected (again, a likely result) it actually makes sense.

Be honest, you just want a reason to not trust the big bad media.

[emailking]

That figure was so unrealistic that I have no reason to trust anything put out by the media ever again.

To be honest, this seems like deflection. I didn't say anything about the media. If it's a consensus among epidemiologists that 2.2 million US deaths with no social distancing was too unrealistic to take seriously than OK, but I haven't seen that.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/14 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>

5/31: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,837,165 (+20,345 | Δ Change: ↓12.65% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 106,190 (+633 | Δ Change: ↓37.64% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/1:

• Cases: 1,859,323 (+22,158 | Δ Change: ↑8.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.21%)
• Deaths: 106,925 (+735 | Δ Change: ↑16.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)

6/2:

• Cases: 1,881,205 (+21,882 | Δ Change: ↓1.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 108,059 (+1,134 | Δ Change: ↑54.29% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

6/3:

• Cases: 1,901,783 (+20,578 | Δ Change: ↓5.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.09%)
• Deaths: 109,142 (+1,083 | Δ Change: ↓4.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)

6/4:

• Cases: 1,924,051 (+22,268 | Δ Change: ↑8.21% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 110,173 (+1,031 | Δ Change: ↓4.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

6/5:

• Cases: 1,953,423 (+29,372 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑1.53%)
• Deaths: 111,384 (+1,211 | Δ Change: ↑17.46% | Σ Increase: ↑1.10%)

6/6:

• Cases: 1,987,175 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↑14.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.73%)
• Deaths: 112,057 (+673 | Δ Change: ↓44.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,007,449 (+20,274 | Δ Change: ↓39.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 112,469 (+412 | Δ Change: ↓38.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

6/8:

• Cases: 2,026,493 (+19,044 | Δ Change: ↓6.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.95%)
• Deaths: 113,055 (+586 | Δ Change: ↑42.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

6/9:

• Cases: 2,045,549 (+19,056 | Δ Change: ↑0.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)
• Deaths: 114,148 (+1,093 | Δ Change: ↑86.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

6/10:

• Cases: 2,066,508 (+20,959 | Δ Change: ↑9.98% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 115,137 (+989 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.87%)

6/11:

• Cases: 2,089,701 (+23,193 | Δ Change: ↑10.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 116,034 (+897 | Δ Change: ↓9.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

6/12:

• Cases: 2,116,922 (+27,221 | Δ Change: ↑17.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 116,825 (+791 | Δ Change: ↓11.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/13 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 2,142,224 (+25,302 | Δ Change: ↓7.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)
• Deaths: 117,527 (+702 | Δ Change: ↓11.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/14 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
• Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

[emailking]

That's the lowest deaths I remember in a while. That's good.

I would have thoughts deaths as a lagging indicator would have caught up with these 20,000 a day cases by now so maybe it really is just due to more testing or the virus is less deadly or something.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1272310662773915648

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/rebeccaballhaus/status/1272603635004985345

[GP270watch]

FDA ends emergency authorization for hydroxychloroquine

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/rebeccaballhaus/status/1272603635004985345

Galaxy brain at work.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

A bunch of family is talking about doing a beach trip in early July.  Given that my grandma is in her mid-80s and that TN offers free testing, I would like to get a test as close to leaving as possible, just to make sure that I wouldn't be asymptomatic.  Does anyone know how long test results are taking right now?  I ask because I was wanting to balance taking it as close to leaving with knowing I would have the results before going to see her.

[Babeuf]

A bunch of family is talking about doing a beach trip in early July.  Given that my grandma is in her mid-80s and that TN offers free testing, I would like to get a test as close to leaving as possible, just to make sure that I wouldn't be asymptomatic.  Does anyone know how long test results are taking right now?  I ask because I was wanting to balance taking it as close to leaving with knowing I would have the results before going to see her.

Took one in NYC on Friday afternoon and got the results back this morning. Not sure if it's the same turnaround time nationwide.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/15 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>

5/31: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,837,165 (+20,345 | Δ Change: ↓12.65% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 106,190 (+633 | Δ Change: ↓37.64% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/1:

• Cases: 1,859,323 (+22,158 | Δ Change: ↑8.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.21%)
• Deaths: 106,925 (+735 | Δ Change: ↑16.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)

6/2:

• Cases: 1,881,205 (+21,882 | Δ Change: ↓1.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 108,059 (+1,134 | Δ Change: ↑54.29% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

6/3:

• Cases: 1,901,783 (+20,578 | Δ Change: ↓5.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.09%)
• Deaths: 109,142 (+1,083 | Δ Change: ↓4.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)

6/4:

• Cases: 1,924,051 (+22,268 | Δ Change: ↑8.21% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 110,173 (+1,031 | Δ Change: ↓4.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

6/5:

• Cases: 1,953,423 (+29,372 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑1.53%)
• Deaths: 111,384 (+1,211 | Δ Change: ↑17.46% | Σ Increase: ↑1.10%)

6/6:

• Cases: 1,987,175 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↑14.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.73%)
• Deaths: 112,057 (+673 | Δ Change: ↓44.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,007,449 (+20,274 | Δ Change: ↓39.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 112,469 (+412 | Δ Change: ↓38.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

6/8:

• Cases: 2,026,493 (+19,044 | Δ Change: ↓6.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.95%)
• Deaths: 113,055 (+586 | Δ Change: ↑42.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

6/9:

• Cases: 2,045,549 (+19,056 | Δ Change: ↑0.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)
• Deaths: 114,148 (+1,093 | Δ Change: ↑86.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

6/10:

• Cases: 2,066,508 (+20,959 | Δ Change: ↑9.98% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 115,137 (+989 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.87%)

6/11:

• Cases: 2,089,701 (+23,193 | Δ Change: ↑10.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 116,034 (+897 | Δ Change: ↓9.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

6/12:

• Cases: 2,116,922 (+27,221 | Δ Change: ↑17.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 116,825 (+791 | Δ Change: ↓11.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/13:

• Cases: 2,142,224 (+25,302 | Δ Change: ↓7.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)
• Deaths: 117,527 (+702 | Δ Change: ↓11.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/14 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
• Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15 (Today):

• Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
• Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/rebeccaballhaus/status/1272603635004985345

Galaxy brain at work.

The biggest, humblest, strongest and classiest brain ever. A brain even bigger than Trump Tower, it will have to be preserved like Lenin was, in order for future generations to appreciate it.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/schaller67/status/1272878014355984384

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

With the recent spike in cases in the South, it occurred to me to check something out with respect to the common argument that deaths are a lagging indicator of infections/cases.  Thus when we see a spike in cases, we shouldn't expect to see a spike in deaths until several weeks later.

This may intuitively feel true, but empirically it has not been true, at least in places that have had major outbreaks. I looked through my data for the peak in the seven-day averages for cases and deaths of the worst hit countries and states.  Most hit their peak in both within a few days of each other:

Countries:
Italy: Cases peaked March 26, deaths peaked April 2
Spain: Cases peaked April 1, deaths peaked April 3
France: Cases peaked April 9, deaths peaked April 8
UK: Cases peaked April 14, deaths peaked April 13

Early states:
Washington: Cases peaked April 9, deaths peaked April 10
New York: Cases peaked April 10, deaths peaked April 13
Michigan: Cases peaked April 7, deaths peaked April 16
New Jersey: Cases peaked April 7, deaths peaked April 21 (though there was a long plateau for both)
Connecticut: Cases peaked April 22, deaths peaked April 25
Pennsylvania: Cases peaked April 10, deaths peaked May 5 (this is the biggest exception)

More recently:
Illinois: Cases peaked May 12, deaths peaked May 13
Maryland: Cases peaked May 24, deaths peaked May 1 (?!?, also a long plateau for both)
Virginia: Cases peaked May 31, deaths peaked May 28