COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Calthrina950]

Mike DeWine was doing so good, and then he says today that making people wear masks 'went too far'. Ridiculous and a total slap in the face to the other many states who are doing it.

Actually, I think DeWine made the right call here. Like I've said before, I supported the mask advisories which the CDC and Surgeon-General issued at the beginning of last month, as well as that issued here in Colorado. But mandating that individuals wear masks, with all of the legal penalties and the rest attached to it, does invite questions of constitutionality. This is to say nothing of the fact that such a mandate in my view would be a "one size fits all" kind of solution, given the varying conditions present among local jurisdictions, to say nothing of the health/mental state of varying individuals.

It's irresponsible. The CDC guidelines are to wear masks. It's not a lot to ask someone just to wear a mask in a restaurant or a store. Him saying that completely undermines the entire guidelines and everything that has come from health officials. I don't give a f**k whether he doesn't like the "government telling people what to do." This is a health crisis with thousands of people dying each day. People are just being selfish and ignorant - that's it. It's a ing mask.

So you want to make mask-wearing mandatory? That's your opinion, and your entitled to it. It amazes me how something as simple as mask-wearing has become such a cultural and political flashpoint during this time.

It should be mandatory. Republicans are the ones making it a political issue, since they are also driving the protests. Again, health officials say masks should be used. That should be the *end* of that.

So I take it that you support penalizing people if they do not wear masks? That's where my primary concern lies-imposing fines or other kinds of penalties for not donning them. But I digress. Like I've said before, I certainly think people should be wearing masks in public, but you're not going to convert everyone, and if you were to make it mandatory across the board, that would not take into consideration the differing conditions that may exist in differing jurisdictions. All that is besides the point.

[DINGO Joe]

Mike DeWine was doing so good, and then he says today that making people wear masks 'went too far'. Ridiculous and a total slap in the face to the other many states who are doing it.

Actually, I think DeWine made the right call here. Like I've said before, I supported the mask advisories which the CDC and Surgeon-General issued at the beginning of last month, as well as that issued here in Colorado. But mandating that individuals wear masks, with all of the legal penalties and the rest attached to it, does invite questions of constitutionality. This is to say nothing of the fact that such a mandate in my view would be a "one size fits all" kind of solution, given the varying conditions present among local jurisdictions, to say nothing of the health/mental state of varying individuals.

It's irresponsible. The CDC guidelines are to wear masks. It's not a lot to ask someone just to wear a mask in a restaurant or a store. Him saying that completely undermines the entire guidelines and everything that has come from health officials. I don't give a f**k whether he doesn't like the "government telling people what to do." This is a health crisis with thousands of people dying each day. People are just being selfish and ignorant - that's it. It's a ing mask.

So you want to make mask-wearing mandatory? That's your opinion, and your entitled to it. It amazes me how something as simple as mask-wearing has become such a cultural and political flashpoint during this time.

It should be mandatory. Republicans are the ones making it a political issue, since they are also driving the protests. Again, health officials say masks should be used. That should be the *end* of that.

So I take it that you support penalizing people if they do not wear masks? That's where my primary concern lies-imposing fines or other kinds of penalties for not donning them. But I digress. Like I've said before, I certainly think people should be wearing masks in public, but you're not going to convert everyone, and if you were to make it mandatory across the board, that would not take into consideration the differing conditions that may exist in differing jurisdictions. All that is besides the point.

I personally think it should be no mask no service.  Of course, it's the choice of individual retailers/facilities to do this.  I'm not interested in fines, though if individuals refuse to leave a no mask no service establishment, they will be cited for trespassing.

[Koharu]

Statement by Mark Charles regarding the State of NM invoking the Riot Control Act to Restrict Access to Gallup NM, a Navajo Reservation Border Town

Travel to the border towns is essential, especially on the first weekend of the month. And with almost no notice, the Mayor of Gallup and the Governor of New Mexico closed access to a critical border town that provides essential services, medical care and resources to a large portion of the Navajo Nation and Zuni Pueblo.

The Gallup Police Department, New Mexico State Police and the National Guard were deployed to set up checkpoints and block access into the city.

The Navajo Nation has the third highest rate of COVID-19 infections per capita in the country (behind only New York and New Jersey). The CARES Act which was passed over a month ago, included 8 billion dollars allocated for American Indian tribes and Native Nations. On April 30, ironically the same day Mayor McKinney and Governor Grisham were deciding to close access to the border town of Gallup NM, six tribes filed a lawsuit against the Trump Administration because none of the allocated $8 billion had yet been distributed to tribes.

[Koharu]

No Detectable Surge in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission due to the April 7, 2020 Wisconsin Election

Oh look, that article hasn't been peer reviewed yet.

https://twitter.com/repmarkpocan/status/1257087389161439232?s=20

And now, a week after the "end the COVID measures" protests, we're having our biggest increases in cases. From WPR:

There are 7,660 positive cases of COVID-19 in Wisconsin as of Saturday, according to the state Department of Health Services. That's an increase of 346 cases from the day before.

This follows a growth in the number of confirmed cases in the state. Friday saw 460 new cases from the day before — the largest single-day increase in positive cases that Wisconsin has seen since the outbreak began in March.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 isn't trying to create their own COVID-19 model, but they're tracking six of the leading models:

Columbia
MIT
Los Alamos
Northeastern U.
U. of Texas
IHME

Forecasts are available for each state and nationally, and for different dates.

[Del Tachi]

No Detectable Surge in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission due to the April 7, 2020 Wisconsin Election

Oh look, that article hasn't been peer reviewed yet.

https://twitter.com/repmarkpocan/status/1257087389161439232?s=20

And now, a week after the "end the COVID measures" protests, we're having our biggest increases in cases. From WPR:

There are 7,660 positive cases of COVID-19 in Wisconsin as of Saturday, according to the state Department of Health Services. That's an increase of 346 cases from the day before.

This follows a growth in the number of confirmed cases in the state. Friday saw 460 new cases from the day before — the largest single-day increase in positive cases that Wisconsin has seen since the outbreak began in March.

Peer review is a lengthy process, and this submission was just received on April 29.  It's isn't particularly notable that the article is not yet peer reviewed.  The authors are a WHO epidemiologist and two Stanford statisticians.

Wisconsin has also been steadily increasing testing, so we should expect a growth in the number of confirmed cases.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Had the Coronavirus nasal swab. It’s not pleasant, but it’s not nearly as bad as some proclaim. Result was Negative.

[Koharu]

Peer review is a lengthy process, and this submission was just received on April 29.  It's isn't particularly notable that the article is not yet peer reviewed.  The authors are a WHO epidemiologist and two Stanford statisticians.

Wisconsin has also been steadily increasing testing, so we should expect a growth in the number of confirmed cases.

I'm aware. However, sharing a stub like that with a headline stating it as fact is misleading, hence my pointing out it isn't peer reviewed yet, so despite sounding authoritative, it isn't (yet).

[Mr. Reactionary]

Peer review is a lengthy process, and this submission was just received on April 29.  It's isn't particularly notable that the article is not yet peer reviewed.  The authors are a WHO epidemiologist and two Stanford statisticians.

Wisconsin has also been steadily increasing testing, so we should expect a growth in the number of confirmed cases.

I'm aware. However, sharing a stub like that with a headline stating it as fact is misleading, hence my pointing out it isn't peer reviewed yet, so despite sounding authoritative, it isn't (yet).

I mean, its also misleading to share a tweet claiming people were "forced" to vote. This isn't Australia.

[Koharu]

Peer review is a lengthy process, and this submission was just received on April 29.  It's isn't particularly notable that the article is not yet peer reviewed.  The authors are a WHO epidemiologist and two Stanford statisticians.

Wisconsin has also been steadily increasing testing, so we should expect a growth in the number of confirmed cases.

I'm aware. However, sharing a stub like that with a headline stating it as fact is misleading, hence my pointing out it isn't peer reviewed yet, so despite sounding authoritative, it isn't (yet).

I mean, its also misleading to share a tweet claiming people were "forced" to vote. This isn't Australia.

Right, it's totally okay to have to decide between your life or voting. They were forced to vote in an unsafe manner. It didn't have to be that way .

[Gass3268]

It's amazing how they don't care.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1257335077459165185?s=20

[Holmes]

Had the Coronavirus nasal swab. It’s not pleasant, but it’s not nearly as bad as some proclaim. Result was Negative.

That's good. Are you showing symptoms? I never took one because I didn't show symptoms even after coming in contact with someone who had it. I was told I could get a false negative if I dont show symptoms.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Had the Coronavirus nasal swab. It’s not pleasant, but it’s not nearly as bad as some proclaim. Result was Negative.

That's good. Are you showing symptoms? I never took one because I didn't show symptoms even after coming in contact with someone who had it. I was told I could get a false negative if I dont show symptoms.

Nah I was the hospital overnight for something unrelated, but for any admission they required the test being done.

[emailking]

So this new CDC model (see Gass3268's post) is predicting 3000 deaths daily and 200,000 new infections daily by June 1. 😲

Even if you multiply 30,000 by 4 (to potentially account for asymptomatics) that's still a big increase. Everyone here has been assuming this thing will be winding down by then, not reaching all new highs.

[GoTfan]

It's amazing how they don't care.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1257335077459165185?s=20

Well, that's my hope gone.

Bye, folks.

[It’s so Joever]

It's amazing how they don't care.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1257335077459165185?s=20

Well, that's my hope gone.

Bye, folks.

You are in Australia, you will be fine.
I would gladly switch places with you.

[Holmes]

Had the Coronavirus nasal swab. It’s not pleasant, but it’s not nearly as bad as some proclaim. Result was Negative.

That's good. Are you showing symptoms? I never took one because I didn't show symptoms even after coming in contact with someone who had it. I was told I could get a false negative if I dont show symptoms.

Nah I was the hospital overnight for something unrelated, but for any admission they required the test being done.

Interesting, I was in the ER on Thursday (kidney stones) and they weren't doing tests. Had to wear a mask though, which coupled with the pain made me miserable.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I skimmed the Wisconsin article. It's very (very) short. This wouldn't make it into a peer review journal (mostly due to its length) but I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand.

The bulk of their actual statistical work is modeling R_0. Neither of the methods they used found certain evidence of a spike; one model does show a mean trend that increases within a week of the election but there's enough uncertainty in the estimate that it's difficult to separate it from statistical noise (rather, the spike is there, but the magnitude of the spike is highly uncertain). Even if this spike was certain, it would be difficult to attribute this to voting without some idea of who was getting infected.

The rest of the report is reporting on and contextualizing results of tests that the state's department of health services administered. I would want to know more about these tests - how many people are included, where they live, etc. That's pretty key to understanding their results and it's left out. They make a great point that many of the people who tested positive may have been infected elsewhere, but again, it's difficult to tell without more knowledge about who was tested.

The most convincing part of the argument is the decrease in hospitalizations across the month of April. There's a separability/identifiability issue there but it suggests to me that there was no disproportionate negative public health effect. I wish we had more information about who these poll workers were and who was actually voting in person, but that data is probably hard to attain. They note that they didn't model the "downstream" effects (secondary, tertiary infections) but note that with R_0 approx. 1 (which has been estimated elsewhere, not just in this study), the number of secondary infections is likely small.

The comparison to driving the car 50 miles strikes me as a little silly. That number was estimated with a mortality rate of a person under the age of 60. Were all, or even most, of the people who voted in person or working at polls under the age of 60? It's possible, but there's nothing in here that warrants using that assumption.

Figure 1A could use a line indicating the moving average. To the (subjective) eye, it looks like there is a bump around April 13th, but that could be due to the abnormally low day several days before. Testing absolutely did not increase over the course of April; testing has been consistent since late March as Figure 1C shows.

The credentials of the authors do not matter. Stanford researchers put out the Santa Clara study which was shredded by several of their peers at other institutions.

[Badger]

So in the tradition of trying to assess politicians response to coronavirus equally without preconception of how good they are, and trying not to hold any cows sacred, there's discouraging news from Ohio.

 about a week ago posters were castigating Iowa governor Kim Reynolds, and possibly Kristi noem as well iirc, about announcing their statewood deny unemployment benefits two employees who were offered the opportunity to return to their jobs, but refused to do so out of fear of contagion in the workplace. Well,  Dewine was apparently  politically smart enough to not personally announce such an unpopular and dickensian policy, but Ohio Department of Job and Family Services which manages unemployment has just today announced that that is in fact the new policy here in Ohio.

Or at least there's a so-called presumption against providing unemployment in such circumstances. Regardless, you can bet your bottom dollar that that presumption will be damn near impossible to overcome in practice

I won't say I disapprove of dewine's performance overall, but he'll definitely just lost a few points in my book.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1257344749784137732?s=20

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Had the Coronavirus nasal swab. It’s not pleasant, but it’s not nearly as bad as some proclaim. Result was Negative.

That's good. Are you showing symptoms? I never took one because I didn't show symptoms even after coming in contact with someone who had it. I was told I could get a false negative if I dont show symptoms.

Nah I was the hospital overnight for something unrelated, but for any admission they required the test being done.

Interesting, I was in the ER on Thursday (kidney stones) and they weren't doing tests. Had to wear a mask though, which coupled with the pain made me miserable.

Once you’re moved from the ED to a room on another floor is when they’re doing it.

[wbrocks67]

So case and death rates are exceedingly going up, and the Trump admin (and many governors) reaction to that is - REOPEN! unbelievable.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Michigan State Police investigators are looking into reports that a Flint dollar store security guard was fatally shot Friday after an argument with a customer who refused to wear a mask in the store.
...
Michigan State Police 1st Lt. David Kaiser said Sunday that detectives are investigating a flood of reports on social media from people who say the violence sparked when the guard told a customer he had to wear a mask, a policy set forth by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to help curb the spread of the coronavirus.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/05/03/police-flint-guard-shooting-mask-family-dollar/3075515001/

[GP270watch]

It's amazing how they don't care.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1257335077459165185?s=20

President Tide Pod really made a mess of this whole response.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1257336004895219713

Here's the actual chart of that CDC report. Seems we're now in a plateau, with deaths expected to increase sharply in a couple weeks. Of course, deaths are a lagging indicator, so that'd be the product of what we're doing to stop the spread (or not), oh, about right now?

I’m not sure why we should put any stock in a CDC model when the actual number of observed deaths from March 15-April 15 don’t even fit into their 95% confidence interval of predicted deaths.  The model predicts 500 deaths on April 15, and we had 2,500!