2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Torie]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NLVWarren/status/1523700063385489409?cxt=HHwWgsCo5c_I...

The 2nd circuit goes all the way down to Florida? Really?

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NLVWarren/status/1523700063385489409?cxt=HHwWgsCo5c_I...

The 2nd circuit goes all the way down to Florida? Really?

2nd circuit state court, it covers the Leon County region.

[Torie]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NLVWarren/status/1523700063385489409?cxt=HHwWgsCo5c_I...

The 2nd circuit goes all the way down to Florida? Really?

2nd circuit state court, it covers the Leon County region.

I thought that might be the case, and thanks.

In other news, there have been about 50 [120] filings in the last hour with a certain court in Bath NY.
It's wild.

[lfromnj]

https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/2022-05-09-DEFENDANT-SECRETARY-OF-STATE-LAUREL-M.-LEES-RESPONSE-IN-OPPOSITION-TO-PLAINTIFFS-MOTION-FOR-TEMPORARY-INJUNCTION.pdf

Here is the states response to the preliminary injunction request.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/jacobogles/status/1524363978734026752

[lfromnj]

Judge so far effectively has given plaintiffs the win on grounds of timing . He is willing to strike the map down if the plaintiffs prove their case.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/NLVWarren/status/1524427404277600256?s=20

https://twitter.com/NLVWarren/status/1524428194538999809?s=20

[Brittain33]

Maybe the FL SC won’t go the hack route after all.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1524446740199337986

[Nyvin]

FL-5 was always going to be the hardest district to get through the courts.   They can probably get away with the Tampa seats and FL-7.

[kwabbit]

I wish they would replace DeSantis' set up with a maximally Black Duval district instead of the Lawson snake. Lawson is from Tallahassee, but he could probably just jump over into a Duval based district.

Surprised the Dems didn't go for redraws of Tampa or Orlando, although the racial element is quite weak there.

[Devils30]

I wish they would replace DeSantis' set up with a maximally Black Duval district instead of the Lawson snake. Lawson is from Tallahassee, but he could probably just jump over into a Duval based district.

Surprised the Dems didn't go for redraws of Tampa or Orlando, although the racial element is quite weak there.

They did...Tampa and Orlando is a separate trial. I expect those to be struck down as well. Can see the FL Supreme Court doing the Duval FL-5 and making FL-13 like a Biden +1 seat while leaving the GOP's FL-7 and 15.

Republicans would have been smart to just pass the 20-8 map originally. Leaving a paper trail makes it difficult for the court to ignore what happened after DeSantis made threats. This issue is all about statutory interpretation...it's pretty clear what the fair districts amendment says.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I now accept my accolades!

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1526320021248561153

So as of now I believe the Tallahassee-to-Jax district is back, with the rest of the map unchanged except insofar as is needed to accommodate that. Now the state will apply for a new stay in the 1st District and simultaneously the 1st District decides whether to pass the case to the FLSC or hear it itself.

[MillennialModerate]

Why on earth wouldn’t they just challenge the whole map?

It’s a real shame if EITHER Florida or Ohio went Dems way the national map would be (almost) not catastrophic this year and great in other yesrs

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why on earth wouldn’t they just challenge the whole map?

It’s a real shame if EITHER Florida or Ohio went Dems way the national map would be (almost) not catastrophic this year and great in other yesrs

IIRC, they did but Tampa-St. Pete and Orlando are a different trial.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'm just worried about SCOTUS here. Could the lower courts get around that by suggesting the compact Jacksonville district instead?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm just worried about SCOTUS here. Could the lower courts get around that by suggesting the compact Jacksonville district instead?

That's what I wish they'd do from the start but Jacksonville isn't really a solid performing district while the current FL 5 is uncompact. The main argument seems to be that it violates the state anti-gerrymandering provisions not really national. Based on national metrics you'll have a hard time arguing this map vioaltes VRA.

[lividnyx]

Why on earth wouldn’t they just challenge the whole map?

They are. They're also going to trial on districts 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, 27, and 28 on intentional minority vote dilution, partisan gerrymandering, non-compactness, and failure to follow political/geographic boundaries.

I can't seem to find where I read this, but I believe the reasoning for only seeking an injunction for NoFL is that the Florida judiciary reads the Fair Districts Amendment in the following way: diminishing racial or language minorities' ability to elect representatives is unconstitutional, whether it was intended or not, but "favoring or disfavoring" a party over another requires plaintiffs to prove intent.

I want to say it was one of Nicholas Warren, Andrew Pantazi, or FiveThirtyEight that said that, but don't quote me on it

[Brittain33]

Why on earth wouldn’t they just challenge the whole map?

They are. They're also going to trial on districts 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, 27, and 28 on intentional minority vote dilution, partisan gerrymandering, non-compact, and failure to follow political/geographic boundaries.

I can't seem to find where I read this, but I believe the reasoning for only seeking an injunction for NoFL is that the Florida judiciary reads the Fair Districts Amendment in the following way: diminishing racial or language minorities' ability to elect representatives is unconstitutional, whether it was intended or not, but "favoring or disfavoring" a party over another requires plaintiffs to prove intent.

I want to say it was one of Nicholas Warren, Andrew Pantazi, or FiveThirtyEight that said that, but don't quote me on it

Welcome to the forum!

[lividnyx]

Welcome to the forum!

Thanks!

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1527669895072194560?t=o8rwwN5GDLpGkirND3kI...

[lfromnj]

Why on earth wouldn’t they just challenge the whole map?

They are. They're also going to trial on districts 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, 27, and 28 on intentional minority vote dilution, partisan gerrymandering, non-compactness, and failure to follow political/geographic boundaries.

I can't seem to find where I read this, but I believe the reasoning for only seeking an injunction for NoFL is that the Florida judiciary reads the Fair Districts Amendment in the following way: diminishing racial or language minorities' ability to elect representatives is unconstitutional, whether it was intended or not, but "favoring or disfavoring" a party over another requires plaintiffs to prove intent.

I want to say it was one of Nicholas Warren, Andrew Pantazi, or FiveThirtyEight that said that, but don't quote me on it

Not exactly, the thing is in FL 5th the facts of the case aren't really in dispute say compared to FL 10th. DeSantis flat out admitted he diluted FL 5th under the argument of the Equal Protection Clause which isn't completely bs. Now the question is what should be done with relatively clear precedent from the FL supreme court in 2016 but also a bunch of more vague precedent that supercedes any FL supreme court precedent from SCOTUS. DeSantis is arguing the entire dilution of minorities clause is unconstitutional under the US constitution.  This is more of a strech. The safest map was what the legislature put out with the Duval only seat. That was very compact although it did require a minor donut district for the burbs. Under this argument there is still dilution of the black vote but to a lesser degree and it is more secure under the Federal constitution. Now the reason why Democrats can't argue for this is because Al Lawson probably won't win a Duval only seat.

[lividnyx]

Now the reason why Democrats can't argue for this is because Al Lawson probably won't win a Duval only seat.

That's a bit of a stretch. CD5 in H000C8019 voted for Biden 55-43, about 8pts more Democratic than the nation as a whole. And with the GOP only up about 2pts in the polls and Lawson's incumbency advantage, he would definitely be a favorite in a Duval-only CD5.

In fact, it was conservatives who originally attempted to gerrymander CD5 based on race, and the Florida Supreme Court struck down the 2013-2017 map, at least in part, because they packed black voters into a serpentine CD5, rather than draw a district which protected, but didn't dilute, the votes of black Americans while giving voice to a geographic community.

[lfromnj]

Now the reason why Democrats can't argue for this is because Al Lawson probably won't win a Duval only seat.

That's a bit of a stretch. CD5 in H000C8019 voted for Biden 55-43, about 8pts more Democratic than the nation as a whole. And with the GOP only up about 2pts in the polls and Lawson's incumbency advantage, he would definitely be a favorite in a Duval-only CD5.

In fact, it was conservatives who originally attempted to gerrymander CD5 based on race, and the Florida Supreme Court struck down the 2013-2017 map, at least in part, because they packed black voters into a serpentine CD5, rather than draw a district which protected, but didn't dilute, the votes of black Americans while giving voice to a geographic community.

I said it wouldn't vote for Al Lawson as in a primary election as he doesn't too well in Duval in the primary. One of the only Democrats to vote for the legislatures original map was a state senator from Jacksonville suggesting a primary challenge.