2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Brittain33]

I made this FL map (assuming 2 new seats)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b4cf0ac9-3d24-42b1-a667-3ac8d2f9d07d

It's mostly a continuity map, but a slight R gerry

The 26th (now the 28th) moves much to the right

The 13th drops St. Petersburg which is picked up by the 16th, new seats are the 19th, as the 17th is shrunk into much of the current 16th, and a new 26th, which is a majority Hispanic seat in Miami

I tried to avoid splitting counties for partisan gain and most splits were for population equivalency purposes.

Population deviation for all seats is under 1,000 votes

While the Florida Supreme Court is controlled by Republicans now it’s hard to see the orange and green districts in central Florida and Tampa passing muster under the redistricting amendment.

[Brittain33]

Idaho Conservative, I’m curious if your map cracks The Villages or keeps it in one district.

[Brittain33]

Another question I've got: Click poll link

Please discuss


To me, I think the answer is having four VRA majority-Hispanic districts. Three being based in Miami-Dade County and one being based in the Orlando metro area (around Osceola County).

However, if the GOP gets to fajita-ing I can realistically see five VRA majority-Hispanic districts, four being based in Miami-Dade County.

Merging together SW Broward with a little bit of Northwest Dade gets you a Hispanic majority pretty quickly, so it seems quite realistic.

I wonder when Miami-Dade gets a 4th Latino CD, if at all.

Miami-Dade only has population for 4 districts before you leave the county and is already the base for an African-American district, so it seems unlikely it will be the base for 4 Hispanic CDs.

[Brittain33]

I hate to be a doomer but we have to be very cautious in discussing population growth in Miami-Dade in 2040 or 2050.

[Brittain33]

I love that we've normalized that a Florida Supreme Court will ignore a disadvantageous amendment to the State Constitution because "it's now a Republican court."

[Brittain33]

I love that we've normalized that a Florida Supreme Court will ignore a disadvantageous amendment to the State Constitution because "it's now a Republican court."

Just like the OR and NY courts and the IL courts for legislative maps which are supposed to be "reasonably compact". These courts just won't get involved mostly.

That may be the case, but in Florida the amendment was passed recently and interpreted by the court to force a remap a few years ago, so this would be a change from recent jurisprudence and the intent of the people just because it's now Republican justices so they'll choose to ignore the specific, actionable directives of the amendment because they don't want to.

I don't know how long those other terms in other states have been in the legislation or if they've ever come up before... or that we assume the NY supreme court (whatever it's called) wouldn't strike down a Dem gerrymander, which they might.

[Brittain33]

I can't believe they would not gerrymander, but I also can't believe they would release "good" maps and set themselves up to look bad later by gerrymandering after the fact.

Is it possible that trends in Central Florida are so risky that they preferred not to mess with FL-7?

[Brittain33]

If the final maps look like this, I take back anything I said about normalizing the FL Supreme Court ignoring the amendment for political expediency because it was now Republican.

[Brittain33]

Perhaps they think even with a Pub Supreme Court, they understand what "unduly favor" means

Stop trying to make fetch happen, Torie

[Brittain33]

Desantis has lost the vital support of laser eyed election twitter users.

They've had a very rough couple of days.

[Brittain33]

Perhaps they think even with a Pub Supreme Court, they understand what "unduly favor" means

Stop trying to make fetch happen, Torie

I am too obtuse, or clueless, or senile, or un-hip, to understand what "fetch" means here in context. You can either enlighten me here, PM more, or ignore. No problem. You have a point about the the verb "stop" but that is for another day. It was from anyone but a very few, I would not respond to the the verb "stop."  I will "stop" soon enough. Patience.

It's a quote from Mean Girls, which is a movie I'm too old to know memes from, so there wouldn't be much hope for you. Here's a link.

https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/stop-trying-to-make-fetch-happen

[Brittain33]

IDK what to make of this... R's in OH and NC swinging for the fences, but very reserved maps in Florida, Texas, and probably Georgia.

I would not describe the maps in Texas as "very reserved", they needed to draw ugly gerrymanders and concede Dem seats just to maintain their overstretched majority. Texas left nothing on the table. Florida, and if the early drafts hold, Georgia, may leave some potential gains on the table in favor of a reasonable map.  

[Brittain33]

FYI you can just recede FL05 to Broward only to make it 46% black.

No, you can’t. That’s not at all how VRA works. This comes up with Georgia where Republicans think you can get rid of GA-2 by giving Black voters another district in Atlanta. It’s not about the number of districts, it’s about the ability of a specific geographically defined community to elect the candidate of their choice. You need to enable the Black population of northern Florida or southwestern Georgia to have the opportunity for representation in Congress and a VRA district in Fort Lauderdale doesn’t do that any more than a district in Chicago or Prince George’s does.

[Brittain33]

I do think a number of posters on Twitter have been far too sanguine about the DeSantis map and putting too much faith in the Senate to do what it wants.

[Brittain33]

I feel so conflicted right now.

As Republicans stretch this out, the probability they will make the map worse and more gerrymandered will compete with the rising tide of chaos caused by a looming deadline with active disagreement.

[Brittain33]

I assume DeSantis assumed the legislature would handle this for the Republican Party without any drama or stress while he focused on other things more associated with his Presidential ambitions. He was blindsided by the Senate releasing a Dem-friendly map which became an unexpected problem for him and now he's trying to get involved with a team that is struggling to get smart, fast on how to advocate for a Republican solution.

Think about it. Why should the governor care that much when the legislature is usually so good at taking care of its own interests and always has led on redistricting?

Anyway, I take his initiatives seriously and don't think the Senate's position will stand up.

[Brittain33]

It’s still possible that House Rs take DeSantis’s suggestion for remapping North Florida and run with it.

[Brittain33]

I know they’d have to change what they originally said. I think it’s possible since DeSantis made a push.

[Brittain33]

Maybe the FL SC won’t go the hack route after all.

[Brittain33]

Why on earth wouldn’t they just challenge the whole map?

They are. They're also going to trial on districts 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, 27, and 28 on intentional minority vote dilution, partisan gerrymandering, non-compact, and failure to follow political/geographic boundaries.

I can't seem to find where I read this, but I believe the reasoning for only seeking an injunction for NoFL is that the Florida judiciary reads the Fair Districts Amendment in the following way: diminishing racial or language minorities' ability to elect representatives is unconstitutional, whether it was intended or not, but "favoring or disfavoring" a party over another requires plaintiffs to prove intent.

I want to say it was one of Nicholas Warren, Andrew Pantazi, or FiveThirtyEight that said that, but don't quote me on it

Welcome to the forum!