2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[lividnyx]

I said it wouldn't vote for Al Lawson as in a primary election as he doesn't too well in Duval in the primary. One of the only Democrats to vote for the legislatures original map was a state senator from Jacksonville suggesting a primary challenge.

Fair enough, though I don't really think your criticism is with Democrats in general then. Seems to me that Dems would care a lot more about picking up a blue district than the specific person that district chooses to be its rep.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Welcome to ping pong

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I am still confident this map will be struck down by SCOFL

[lividnyx]

SCOFL has ordered a briefing schedule. Byrd & other respondents have until Friday to respond to BVM's petition to affirm Judge Smith's injunction.

BVM's Petition:
https://efactssc-public.flcourts.org/casedocuments/2022/685/2022-685_petition_80202_petition2dall20writs.pdf
SCOFL's Order:
https://efactssc-public.flcourts.org/casedocuments/2022/685/2022-685_order_254279_o03cd.pdf

[MillennialModerate]

I am still confident this map will be struck down by SCOFL

You are batsh**t crazy with this take lol

AT best they’ll strike it in theory but essentially make it so the map stands anyway

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/AmeetTheIndian/status/1532381436988334085

[ProgressiveModerate]

Based Labarga.

Fr though that’s such a cop out on the courts part, to say they don’t have jurisdiction over it.

I know a bunch of people are gonna start comparing this to NY, but tbf, NY Dems map was truly worse than Floridas R from basically every metric. Florida Rs were just a lot smarter. I hope the map backfires on them as they seem a bit cocky with Miami and Tampa specifically.

Texas is prolly the next legal Avenue Dems should go down. It likely won’t be very fruitful but there is a serious case R violated VRA, namely in San Antonio and DFW. If the court just redraws a small chunk of the map, it could make TX-28 redder but in exchange for a safe D San Antonio seat.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Based Labarga.

Fr though that’s such a cop out on the courts part, to say they don’t have jurisdiction over it.

I know a bunch of people are gonna start comparing this to NY, but tbf, NY Dems map was truly worse than Floridas R from basically every metric. Florida Rs were just a lot smarter. I hope the map backfires on them as they seem a bit cocky with Miami and Tampa specifically.

Texas is prolly the next legal Avenue Dems should go down. It likely won’t be very fruitful but there is a serious case R violated VRA, namely in San Antonio and DFW. If the court just redraws a small chunk of the map, it could make TX-28 redder but in exchange for a safe D San Antonio seat.

No offense, but I’m genuinely not sure what you’re talking about Re: FL vs. NY.  The FL gerrymander is one of the worst in the country (although not as bad as TX or OH).  The NY map was a mild-to-medium gerrymander.  

[ProgressiveModerate]

Based Labarga.

Fr though that’s such a cop out on the courts part, to say they don’t have jurisdiction over it.

I know a bunch of people are gonna start comparing this to NY, but tbf, NY Dems map was truly worse than Floridas R from basically every metric. Florida Rs were just a lot smarter. I hope the map backfires on them as they seem a bit cocky with Miami and Tampa specifically.

Texas is prolly the next legal Avenue Dems should go down. It likely won’t be very fruitful but there is a serious case R violated VRA, namely in San Antonio and DFW. If the court just redraws a small chunk of the map, it could make TX-28 redder but in exchange for a safe D San Antonio seat.

No offense, but I’m genuinely not sure what you’re talking about Re: FL vs. NY.  The FL gerrymander is one of the worst in the country (although not as bad as TX or OH).  The NY map was a mild-to-medium gerrymander.  

In terms of partisan outcome they’re similar levels of gerrymandered.

However, the FL map at least makes attempts to follow COIs, County lines, and have some competitive districts. They def made a lot of favorable decisions but didn’t maximize the gerrymander everywhere. NYdems map was horrendous for what it accomplished

[UncleSam]

Based Labarga.

Fr though that’s such a cop out on the courts part, to say they don’t have jurisdiction over it.

I know a bunch of people are gonna start comparing this to NY, but tbf, NY Dems map was truly worse than Floridas R from basically every metric. Florida Rs were just a lot smarter. I hope the map backfires on them as they seem a bit cocky with Miami and Tampa specifically.

Texas is prolly the next legal Avenue Dems should go down. It likely won’t be very fruitful but there is a serious case R violated VRA, namely in San Antonio and DFW. If the court just redraws a small chunk of the map, it could make TX-28 redder but in exchange for a safe D San Antonio seat.

No offense, but I’m genuinely not sure what you’re talking about Re: FL vs. NY.  The FL gerrymander is one of the worst in the country (although not as bad as TX or OH).  The NY map was a mild-to-medium gerrymander.  

Maybe in terms of the efficiency gap, but in terms of county lines, COI, compactness, and just the good old basic eye test the Fl map was definitely less of a travesty. Doesn't make it anything other than a strong R gerrymander of course, but Fl Rs played their hand well while NY Ds basically just said 'the courts are filled with our appointees so we're not even going to pretend to draw reasonable maps'.

[lfromnj]

The key difference between the 2 maps really comes from incumbent demands. Like Joe Morelle demanding the safest possible Rochester district really made the map so much more ugly for example. Even Ohio is pretty similar. Although everyone can agree any district not based entirely within Hamilton is a gerrymander,  a cleaner gerrymander could have been made using Clermont county instead of placing Ohio 1st with Warren County. The DeSantis map doesn't really do much for any incumbents other than South Florida which isn't even his proposal as it's just copied from the legislature.

[MillennialModerate]

https://twitter.com/AmeetTheIndian/status/1532381436988334085

I’m stunned. Never saw it coming

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Thoughts on this map?





https://davesredistricting.org/join/4530af88-20c7-441c-a993-3089f3d1fc57

[BenjiG98]

That looks really good. Not 100% sold on the Lee County seat but this is a great map.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChristinaPushaw/status/1633084974495592450

Does confirm the primary threats behind the scenes.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChristinaPushaw/status/1633084974495592450

Does confirm the primary threats behind the scenes.

Why do people actually link to tweets instead of just embedding them now?

https://www.twitter.com/ChristinaPushaw/status/1633084974495592450

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChristinaPushaw/status/1633084974495592450

Does confirm the primary threats behind the scenes.

Why do people actually link to tweets instead of just embedding them now?

https://www.twitter.com/ChristinaPushaw/status/1633084974495592450

I meant to link the tweet. Just realized I pressed quote instead of the tweet button.

[Oryxslayer]

FL-05, or something similar to the previous African American north Florida access seat, may be returning very soon. State court case is going to trial soon, but the plaintiffs and the state defendants  have agreed to a pretrial semi-settlement.

The plaintiffs drop their challenges to districts in the Tampa and Orlando area to narrow in on the north. The state agrees to: a expedited schedule and potential remapping when the session restarts in January,  agrees that if the court accepts the plaintiffs arguments on the state's own non-retrogression laws (very likely in light of this) the remedial district will be Tallahassee to Duval, and the state defendants publicly state for the legal record that “none of the enacted districts in North Florida are districts in which Black voters have the ability to elect their preferred candidates.” Parties agree to limit potential remapping solely to North Florida and only districts that would be affected by recreating the previous access seat.


Al Lawson has publicly stated he intends to return.  

In a roundabout way, this is more fallout from Milligan. DeSantis justified his map on restoring compactness, but mainly on the potential for a Supreme Court ruling that would vindicate him in regards to Gingles and gerrymandering. Legally he argues that the 2010 equity protections amendments to the constitution violate the US Constitution, but the Supreme Court didn't rule the VRA against the constitution, and said amendments copy the VRA for the state. With that not happening, he has little defense in regards to the former 5th specifically.  So the plaintiffs see a chance to get that district done now, and not have it remain in limbo as their other claims lead to the case remaining in and working its way up through the state system till probably the 2026 elections at the earliest.  

https://twitter.com/fineout/status/1690459097756209152?t=Jk5CQ9Iahosm5dIzq6TbaQ&...

https://twitter.com/Fla_Pol/status/1690470734890471424?t=47z1xm6JQq50B6GxTXH7xA&...

[Nyvin]

Now that the crackpot theorycrafting by DeSantis is dead via Allen v. Milligan not going his way, the defendants realize the North Florida districts (not having any black opportunity district) are indefensible due to the retrogression (or "diminishment") wording in the Fair Districts amendment.  

So now the FLGOP wants to declare the entire retrogression section of the Fair Districts amendment (along with any racial representation rules) unconstitutional, which is idiocy.

[Oryxslayer]

Now that the crackpot theorycrafting by DeSantis is dead via Allen v. Milligan not going his way, the defendants realize the North Florida districts (not having any black opportunity district) are indefensible due to the retrogression (or "diminishment") wording in the Fair Districts amendment.  

So now the FLGOP wants to declare the entire retrogression section of the Fair Districts amendment (along with any racial representation rules) unconstitutional, which is idiocy.

Yeah they would need a truly activist hack judge to do that, especially since people voted it into the constitution by over 60% in 2010 of all years. Which is why I suspect this agreement is everything but an out of court settlement when its comes to the 5th. This is of course because the state Defendant is running for President and can't appear to be settling to liberals benefit. he instead needs to appear ordered by a court for trying so he can cliam "to have his hands tied by activist hack judges."

[politicallefty]

I'm actually a little confused about what's going on here. Does any settlement on restoring the old FL-05 obviate other challenges to the map? The way FL-13 and FL-14 are drawn is one of the more unquestionably hackish aspects of the map. On the other hand, the courts in Florida are pretty bad now, aren't they?

[Oryxslayer]

I'm actually a little confused about what's going on here. Does any settlement on restoring the old FL-05 obviate other challenges to the map? The way FL-13 and FL-14 are drawn is one of the more unquestionably hackish aspects of the map. On the other hand, the courts in Florida are pretty bad now, aren't they?

Well there is a separate suit in federal court, this is the state challenges. So there's always that.


This agreement explicitly has the plaintiffs drop challenges to Tampa and Orlando, yes. The bead that I get, especially since the plaintiffs are openly happy with this outcome, is that FL-05 is is all but an auto-win at this point since it concerns the minority access and retrogression sections. Whereas the other areas focus on the gerrymandering and COI sections, and that's the type of thing that will be litigated all the way to the State Supreme Court. So the plaintiffs preferred approach is seemingly get one district resolved now for 2024, then go again for the districts that would tie everything up for a longer period, rather then have FL-05 remain tied and delayed through the longer litigation.

[Oryxslayer]

MCI Maps, the Florida politics and data jockey, has a good Substack on the topic and agreement and the situation concerning the state case. One thing that I forgot to mention in the previous post but should have is the issue of discovery. Compared to the case last decade, the court was much more favorable to legislative privilege and retention of documents. This meant the plaintiffs have less official legal evidence to prove the gerrymandering claim, whereas the racial one just needs RPV and functionality evidence like under Section 2 VRA, albeit  more lenient.  Trying again in a more favorable lower venue in regards to Tampa and Orlando might additionally lead to better discovery rulings even if that case would still eventually head up to the same Conservative-controlled high courts.

[Nyvin]

It takes Thomas and Alito judicial standards to make the argument that the 14th Amendment - passed in the wake of the Civil War to end the slavery of African Americans in the country - guarantees the right of lawmakers to discriminate against blacks in redistricting congressional maps.

[Oryxslayer]

FL-05 trial is Thursday.