2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Roll Roons]

What kind of sucks is no matter what, you have to do something a bit geographically awkward to achieve a black opportunity seat in north Florida. The old FL-05 config that connects Jacksonville and Tallahassee if obviously just a long district, and while a Jacksonville based district in itself may seem compact, it forces a 2nd wrap around district that's a bit awkward.

If it were up to me, I'd just go for the Jacksonville based district, even if it's black % is a bit lower. At this point, it should still be enough to be functional and the black population in Jacksonville is growing overall, plus it sets an easier precedent for the future of a functional minority Jacksonville based seat.

I'm curious if by 2030, assuming there's no major federal or state redistricting reform and Rs still control the pen in FL, if they might just cede a Jacksonville based seat due to growth and shifts and Ds generally gaining ground

Yeah. Jacksonville is one of the few places in Florida where Democrats are making gains, or at least not losing ground. DeSantis's margins in Duval, Clay, Nassau and St. John's Counties in 2022 were basically the same as Rick Scott's in 2014, despite the former doing nearly 20 points better statewide.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Good article:

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1698350009756811384

Reading the thread it appears that the FL secretary of state has really screwed up the republicans with his garbage far right arguments that even a rick scott appointee refused to take into consideration.

It's not so much even that his arguments are far-right as that they're nonsensical and incoherent.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What kind of sucks is no matter what, you have to do something a bit geographically awkward to achieve a black opportunity seat in north Florida. The old FL-05 config that connects Jacksonville and Tallahassee if obviously just a long district, and while a Jacksonville based district in itself may seem compact, it forces a 2nd wrap around district that's a bit awkward.

If it were up to me, I'd just go for the Jacksonville based district, even if it's black % is a bit lower. At this point, it should still be enough to be functional and the black population in Jacksonville is growing overall, plus it sets an easier precedent for the future of a functional minority Jacksonville based seat.

I'm curious if by 2030, assuming there's no major federal or state redistricting reform and Rs still control the pen in FL, if they might just cede a Jacksonville based seat due to growth and shifts and Ds generally gaining ground

Yeah. Jacksonville is one of the few places in Florida where Democrats are making gains, or at least not losing ground. DeSantis's margins in Duval, Clay, Nassau and St. John's Counties in 2022 were basically the same as Rick Scott's in 2014, despite the former doing nearly 20 points better statewide.

I think it's in part because compared to places like Miami and Tampa, it's less "culturally Florida", and therefore is more likely to have the swings one would expect given the changing Demographics.

[Oryxslayer]

As expected, the appeal was made.  Let's see what happens to this offer. Both parties agreed in the settlement to any appeals requests being for speedy resolution,  so all court action ends before the regular session in January.  So the court response should be swift.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Do the Republicans have any type of rebuttal to the point that a D-leaning seat fully in Duval County can be easily drawn? Because that's not only obviously true it completely invalidates any "compactness" claims they're making.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do the Republicans have any type of rebuttal to the point that a D-leaning seat fully in Duval County can be easily drawn? Because that's not only obviously true it completely invalidates any "compactness" claims they're making.

Ig that even though a Duval based seat itself is compact, it forces another district to be uncompact? You either need a wrap-around suburban Jacksonville seat or a rural district that grabs Nassau County. Still a pretty weak argument though.

[Nyvin]

Do the Republicans have any type of rebuttal to the point that a D-leaning seat fully in Duval County can be easily drawn? Because that's not only obviously true it completely invalidates any "compactness" claims they're making.

Ig that even though a Duval based seat itself is compact, it forces another district to be uncompact? You either need a wrap-around suburban Jacksonville seat or a rural district that grabs Nassau County. Still a pretty weak argument though.

The state senate did propose a Duval only district in 2021, so obviously they thought it would work at some point.  I *think* the only real argument against it would be that african americans wouldn't have sufficient numbers to reliably control the Dem primary...?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do the Republicans have any type of rebuttal to the point that a D-leaning seat fully in Duval County can be easily drawn? Because that's not only obviously true it completely invalidates any "compactness" claims they're making.

Ig that even though a Duval based seat itself is compact, it forces another district to be uncompact? You either need a wrap-around suburban Jacksonville seat or a rural district that grabs Nassau County. Still a pretty weak argument though.

The state senate did propose a Duval only district in 2021, so obviously they thought it would work at some point.  I *think* the only real argument against it would be that african americans wouldn't have sufficient numbers to reliably control the Dem primary...?

That’s a bad argument because the remaining Dem primary vote is fractured between low turnout Hispanics and a few whites. Blacks should easily be 60%+ of the primary electorate

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Do the Republicans have any type of rebuttal to the point that a D-leaning seat fully in Duval County can be easily drawn? Because that's not only obviously true it completely invalidates any "compactness" claims they're making.

Ig that even though a Duval based seat itself is compact, it forces another district to be uncompact? You either need a wrap-around suburban Jacksonville seat or a rural district that grabs Nassau County. Still a pretty weak argument though.

The state senate did propose a Duval only district in 2021, so obviously they thought it would work at some point.  I *think* the only real argument against it would be that african americans wouldn't have sufficient numbers to reliably control the Dem primary...?

But the current split into Safe R seats makes that moot anyway. Are they actually arguing that it's more compliant with the VRA or whatever to have two seats with black-dominated D primaries where the Democrat can't win than a D-leaning seat that's not as black-dominated?

[Oryxslayer]

Do the Republicans have any type of rebuttal to the point that a D-leaning seat fully in Duval County can be easily drawn? Because that's not only obviously true it completely invalidates any "compactness" claims they're making.

Ig that even though a Duval based seat itself is compact, it forces another district to be uncompact? You either need a wrap-around suburban Jacksonville seat or a rural district that grabs Nassau County. Still a pretty weak argument though.

The state senate did propose a Duval only district in 2021, so obviously they thought it would work at some point.  I *think* the only real argument against it would be that african americans wouldn't have sufficient numbers to reliably control the Dem primary...?

But the current split into Safe R seats makes that moot anyway. Are they actually arguing that it's more compliant with the VRA or whatever to have two seats with black-dominated D primaries where the Democrat can't win than a D-leaning seat that's not as black-dominated?

No. The pretrial agreement had them concede legally that there is no district in north Florida where African American voters have any influence on the results.  Which nullifies many lanes of rebuttal and is part of how the plaintiffs seemingly were able to stack the deck in regards to FL05,  albeit in exchange for dropping Tampa and Orlando.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NLVWarren/status/1703927930919715174?t=K-i18sn-vqBbHC2FYYlia...

Both parties asked in concordance with the pretrial agreement for the Courts of Appeals to streamline the case so that it would be the FLSC with sole ability to arbitrate any appeals. However,  the COA refused to do this, so in order to try and keep to the legal settle,  both parties ask for expedited schedule.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1706700943964680470?t=lA1iL1FoI5Ma2F7cf...

The federal Racial Gerrymandering case against the Florida congressional map is having it's day in the lower courts.  FYI,  they also reduced their case to just FL05 very recently,  so there sadly are now no cases against Tampa or Orlando right now IIRC.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1706700943964680470?t=lA1iL1FoI5Ma2F7cf...

The federal Racial Gerrymandering case against the Florida congressional map is having it's day in the lower courts.  FYI,  they also reduced their case to just FL05 very recently,  so there sadly are now no cases against Tampa or Orlando right now IIRC.

Morons. They would've won on Tampa

[kwabbit]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1706700943964680470?t=lA1iL1FoI5Ma2F7cf...
The federal Racial Gerrymandering case against the Florida congressional map is having it's day in the lower courts.  FYI,  they also reduced their case to just FL05 very recently,  so there sadly are now no cases against Tampa or Orlando right now IIRC.

Morons. They would've won on Tampa

I thought the Tampa and St Pete districts were not Black enough to be racial gerrymandering. It's partisan gerrymandering, for sure, but downtown St. Pete wasn't paired for Tampa for racial reasons.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1706700943964680470?t=lA1iL1FoI5Ma2F7cf...
The federal Racial Gerrymandering case against the Florida congressional map is having it's day in the lower courts.  FYI,  they also reduced their case to just FL05 very recently,  so there sadly are now no cases against Tampa or Orlando right now IIRC.

Morons. They would've won on Tampa

I thought the Tampa and St Pete districts were not Black enough to be racial gerrymandering. It's partisan gerrymandering, for sure, but downtown St. Pete wasn't paired for Tampa for racial reasons.

The argument would be that the district constitutes illegal racial packing, since the two communities are disparate and are not united to create a district that elects voters of their choice.

[Oryxslayer]

Oral argument in the state court trial is going to be a spooky Halloween session. Scheduling has seemingly remained expedited, per the request of all parties who want this done before 2024.

[Nyvin]

The trial is starting.   The judges kinda seem hostile to the plaintiffs at first, but that's not surprising considering they're all R judges.

[Oryxslayer]

The trial is starting.   The judges kinda seem hostile to the plaintiffs at first, but that's not surprising considering they're all R judges.

Yes the judges here seem like the conservative activist types, which is perhaps why they interceded despite everyone on both sides wanting to go to the FL Supreme Court and bypass them. This was the livethread:

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1719339022517248190?t=A9XUTU9TREkSc73HMcL_CQ...

[Nyvin]

That was a weird trial.   Section 5 district are only valid if they're brought about by a Section 2 claim???  WTF??

Also the case isn't even dealing with the VRA but the fair districts amendment in the FL constitution, which wasn't brought up at all, why?

The judges interrupted the lawyers so much they practically were just spewing their own narrative and not letting the lawyers get anything to say at all.  What a joke of a court.

[Stuart98]

I'm still leaning towards the Jacksonville draw being struck down by the state supreme court but jfc this appellate court is a kangaroo court.

[Oryxslayer]

In theory whatever happens here doesn't really matter cause both parties agreed to appeal to the State Supreme Court from the intimal hearing, this panel just butted in. Even if they reverse the previous ruling, it'll get pushed up. Everyone's going to the same place as where we were initially, with the Supreme Court having full arbitration with their decision being the important one. And it should be fast, since both parties want this done so that potential remapping occurs during the regular 2024 session. If the Supreme Court was going to say no last month,  then they will say no next month and nothing ever was possible.

The one way it could matter is if this panel overturns the lower court ruling, and then the Supreme Court refuses both the plaintiffs and the Defendants appeals to arbitrate the case.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

So I guess it's okay for New York judges to ignore the constitution too, right and allow democrats to gerrymander however they want, no? Because it literally says in the constitution you can't alter a minority district like FL-5 and they're putting their fingers in their ears and saying that doesn't matter.

[Mr.Phips]

So I guess it's okay for New York judges to ignore the constitution too, right and allow democrats to gerrymander however they want, no? Because it literally says in the constitution you can't alter a minority district like FL-5 and they're putting their fingers in their ears and saying that doesn't matter.

Hopefully the NY judges are watching this as well as what just happened in NC.

[Stuart98]

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1730696394615468257?t=5zfgDjgdgxuJTK8HQjbyMg...

Hack court has released hack opinion, to the state Supreme Court we go.

[Oryxslayer]

After the Winter Holiday Leave, the Florida State Supreme Court accepts the appeals. Additionally, a dissenter from last decades remap recused from the decision to take the case.

However, given the 1st DCA's successful delay by butting in, the original timeframe agreed by the plaintiffs and the state defendants is now moot. This gives the Supreme Court more freedom of motion. Right now they plan at least 2 months until the trial, probably a bit more unless both parties demand a speedier resolution.  

Unless something seriously changes in the ensuing weeks, this is a very obvious telegraph IMO. The Supreme Court could have let the hack 1st's ruling stand and just avoid taking the issue. But since they are, it suggests that a majority are fine making  the pretrial agreement from last Fall a reality (Fl-05 Yes, others no cause we couldn't get the evidence, if you forgot). However, there is now going to be an attempt to delay resolution past 2024. We will have to see in the coming weeks if that will happen: Florida's filing deadline for Congress is in April, but the primary is very late in August. And a minimum disruption restoration map could only effect 4 seats, 2 if the Court orders Duval only rather than the pretrial agreed East-West link.