Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Walmart_shopper]

Lieberman's terms for entering a coalition:
Conscription law as agreed upon last year, minimum income of 70% from the minimum wage for seniors who live from benefits, moving all authority on public transportation and businesses in Saturday to the municipal authorities, civil marriage, and conversion by any city Rabbies (would make it easier). Gantz's response: "Agreed".

If somehow they make it happen... we might just get same sex marriage soon. KL needs to start passing these laws immediately when a government is formed to distract from any right-wing provocations regarding the Joint List.

I wouldn't count on the JL with SSMs...Balad and parts of Hadash might be the only supporters. don't forget Ra'am and Ta'al have a lot of people making a living from the 9 (thirteen!) Islamic courts operating in Israel

At least half of the Likud will vote for it. And Bagatz won't allow civil marriage without same-sex marriage.

[Walmart_shopper]

Lieberman's terms for entering a coalition:
Conscription law as agreed upon last year, minimum income of 70% from the minimum wage for seniors who live from benefits, moving all authority on public transportation and businesses in Saturday to the municipal authorities, civil marriage, and conversion by any city Rabbies (would make it easier). Gantz's response: "Agreed".

If somehow they make it happen... we might just get same sex marriage soon. KL needs to start passing these laws immediately when a government is formed to distract from any right-wing provocations regarding the Joint List.

I never understood why Lieberman and liberal Jews are so avid about making conversion easier. I mean, the whole point of civil marriage is to allow the significant and growing population of mostly Russian Israelis to marry without having to convert. The point is that you can be a devout Russian Orthodox Christian or whatever you want to be from Ukraine and still be as fully Israeli as anyone else, and that you don't nerd to go begging for a conversion certificate to prove your full citizenship and rights. There is already so much pressure on Russians to become Jewish (or at least halachically Jewish), I think the goal should be telling them that they are fine just as they are and not make the assimilation process easier. Israel should be proud that most olim today aren't actually Jewish, and it is pants-on-head backwards that anyone feels like they need a beit din to be "more Israeli."

In any case, I would assume civil marriage and Saturday public transit woyuld be among the first major legislative projects of a minority governmemt, with or without Joint List support. The JL msy nit fully support civil marriage, but there is zero chance they'll bring down the government over it.

[Hnv1]

Lieberman's terms for entering a coalition:
Conscription law as agreed upon last year, minimum income of 70% from the minimum wage for seniors who live from benefits, moving all authority on public transportation and businesses in Saturday to the municipal authorities, civil marriage, and conversion by any city Rabbies (would make it easier). Gantz's response: "Agreed".

If somehow they make it happen... we might just get same sex marriage soon. KL needs to start passing these laws immediately when a government is formed to distract from any right-wing provocations regarding the Joint List.

I wouldn't count on the JL with SSMs...Balad and parts of Hadash might be the only supporters. don't forget Ra'am and Ta'al have a lot of people making a living from the 9 (thirteen!) Islamic courts operating in Israel

At least half of the Likud will vote for it. And Bagatz won't allow civil marriage without same-sex marriage.

A clever person would simply phrase civil unions in a manner the Supreme Court would simply interpret as applying to same sex couples...it’s quite easy

[jaymichaud]

Lieberman's terms for entering a coalition:
Conscription law as agreed upon last year, minimum income of 70% from the minimum wage for seniors who live from benefits, moving all authority on public transportation and businesses in Saturday to the municipal authorities, civil marriage, and conversion by any city Rabbies (would make it easier). Gantz's response: "Agreed".

If somehow they make it happen... we might just get same sex marriage soon. KL needs to start passing these laws immediately when a government is formed to distract from any right-wing provocations regarding the Joint List.

I wouldn't count on the JL with SSMs...Balad and parts of Hadash might be the only supporters. don't forget Ra'am and Ta'al have a lot of people making a living from the 9 (thirteen!) Islamic courts operating in Israel

Some MKs on the right will make up for those votes. Ohana (of course), Regev, Kahlon, Haskel etc.

What’s YBs stance on SSM? I haven’t seen anything but we all know the Russian community can be quite homophobic

[America Needs R'hllor]

Lieberman's terms for entering a coalition:
Conscription law as agreed upon last year, minimum income of 70% from the minimum wage for seniors who live from benefits, moving all authority on public transportation and businesses in Saturday to the municipal authorities, civil marriage, and conversion by any city Rabbies (would make it easier). Gantz's response: "Agreed".

If somehow they make it happen... we might just get same sex marriage soon. KL needs to start passing these laws immediately when a government is formed to distract from any right-wing provocations regarding the Joint List.

I wouldn't count on the JL with SSMs...Balad and parts of Hadash might be the only supporters. don't forget Ra'am and Ta'al have a lot of people making a living from the 9 (thirteen!) Islamic courts operating in Israel

Some MKs on the right will make up for those votes. Ohana (of course), Regev, Kahlon, Haskel etc.

What’s YBs stance on SSM? I haven’t seen anything but we all know the Russian community can be quite homophobic

Yeah. Last election YB just kept silent so that they could get the votes of ultra secular anti-Haredi Tel Aviv people but also keep the extremely homophobic Russian base.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Lieberman gave a green light to replacing Edlestein as Speaker, Meir Cohen from Yesh Atid will likely get it. Bye b*tch!

Important to note that once he's elected by vote, the new speaker will require a special majority to replace, so Cohen might be perched up there even if Netanyahu somehow forms a government.

[Oryxslayer]

So are we thinking Gantz actually does become PM on this, or screws up and there's a fourth election? Because during the last coalition negotiations, the left plus YB totaled 65. Now they total 62. The base dynamics are the same but with fewer seats. Aren't they just as likely to mess up over Balad being jerks or Lieberman getting cold feet (understandably, as this puts him on the same side as the Arabs, which his voters won't like) as they were last time?

As one can probably see right now, it seems as if election 3 lit a fire under everyone's asses. Likud is making greater efforts to flip MKs, and Gantz is making serious plays against him. When the opposition had 65 MKs everything felt more leisurely for some reason. Now I suspect both blocks fear election 4: Gantz can see the labour-meretz trendline, and Likud has reason to suspect a backlash similar to election 2 and it's relation to election 1.

[Former President tack50]

Since I mentioned banning the Joint List as a possible way for Netanyahu to "start rigging elections", here is one for Gantz to do the same: Mandatory voting.

If liberals in Tel Aviv and Arabs are forced to go to the polls under threat of fines that will raise their turnout, while it seems the right wing base (or at least the Haredi) will turn out no matter what; so mandatory voting should mean a left+Arabs majority.

Of course, mandatory voting is infinitely more democratic than banning the Joint list

[Oryxslayer]

Since I mentioned banning the Joint List as a possible way for Netanyahu to "start rigging elections", here is one for Gantz to do the same: Mandatory voting.

If liberals in Tel Aviv and Arabs are forced to go to the polls under threat of fines that will raise their turnout, while it seems the right wing base (or at least the Haredi) will turn out no matter what; so mandatory voting should mean a left+Arabs majority.

Of course, mandatory voting is infinitely more democratic than banning the Joint list

Another way to 'rig' the polls would be to allow for mail voting, since a lot of Liberal israelis have vacated for the US. However, I suspect these things are two steps ahead of where Gantz is thinking right now.

[Former President tack50]

Since I mentioned banning the Joint List as a possible way for Netanyahu to "start rigging elections", here is one for Gantz to do the same: Mandatory voting.

If liberals in Tel Aviv and Arabs are forced to go to the polls under threat of fines that will raise their turnout, while it seems the right wing base (or at least the Haredi) will turn out no matter what; so mandatory voting should mean a left+Arabs majority.

Of course, mandatory voting is infinitely more democratic than banning the Joint list

Another way to 'rig' the polls would be to allow for mail voting, since a lot of Liberal israelis have vacated for the US. However, I suspect these things are two steps ahead of where Gantz is thinking right now.

Would those Israeli citizens living in the US turn out to vote though? Allowing Israelis abroad to vote would definitely help the left as well I imagine, though turnout among "X abroad" is usually low from what I can tell.

Tbh allowing mail voting is indeed something Israel should actually pursue.

[Hnv1]

Since I mentioned banning the Joint List as a possible way for Netanyahu to "start rigging elections", here is one for Gantz to do the same: Mandatory voting.

If liberals in Tel Aviv and Arabs are forced to go to the polls under threat of fines that will raise their turnout, while it seems the right wing base (or at least the Haredi) will turn out no matter what; so mandatory voting should mean a left+Arabs majority.

Of course, mandatory voting is infinitely more democratic than banning the Joint list

No thanks. Beyond the horrible concept of effectively abolishing my right to vote by turning it into an obligation, currently the lowest turnout is by Likud voters and Russians. The left actually votes in quite decent numbers

[Hnv1]

Since I mentioned banning the Joint List as a possible way for Netanyahu to "start rigging elections", here is one for Gantz to do the same: Mandatory voting.

If liberals in Tel Aviv and Arabs are forced to go to the polls under threat of fines that will raise their turnout, while it seems the right wing base (or at least the Haredi) will turn out no matter what; so mandatory voting should mean a left+Arabs majority.

Of course, mandatory voting is infinitely more democratic than banning the Joint list

Another way to 'rig' the polls would be to allow for mail voting, since a lot of Liberal israelis have vacated for the US. However, I suspect these things are two steps ahead of where Gantz is thinking right now.

Would those Israeli citizens living in the US turn out to vote though? Allowing Israelis abroad to vote would definitely help the left as well I imagine, though turnout among "X abroad" is usually low from what I can tell.

Tbh allowing mail voting is indeed something Israel should actually pursue.

Don’t be daft y’all, in a country where every Jew can become a citizen the Haredi will simply organize everyone and send them voting all over the world. The Israeli liberals abroad would be marginalized very fast and liberal American Jews wouldn’t bother

[jaymichaud]

Since I mentioned banning the Joint List as a possible way for Netanyahu to "start rigging elections", here is one for Gantz to do the same: Mandatory voting.

If liberals in Tel Aviv and Arabs are forced to go to the polls under threat of fines that will raise their turnout, while it seems the right wing base (or at least the Haredi) will turn out no matter what; so mandatory voting should mean a left+Arabs majority.

Of course, mandatory voting is infinitely more democratic than banning the Joint list

I don't really think much of mandatory voting as a policy. The right to vote should also come with the right not to vote.

[Gary J]

Since I mentioned banning the Joint List as a possible way for Netanyahu to "start rigging elections", here is one for Gantz to do the same: Mandatory voting.

If liberals in Tel Aviv and Arabs are forced to go to the polls under threat of fines that will raise their turnout, while it seems the right wing base (or at least the Haredi) will turn out no matter what; so mandatory voting should mean a left+Arabs majority.

Of course, mandatory voting is infinitely more democratic than banning the Joint list

I don't really think much of mandatory voting as a policy. The right to vote should also come with the right not to vote.

Mandatory voting does not work too badly in Australia and there is nothing to force an unwilling voter not to spoil their ballot. You could also include an explicit none of the above option on the ballot.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Since I mentioned banning the Joint List as a possible way for Netanyahu to "start rigging elections", here is one for Gantz to do the same: Mandatory voting.

If liberals in Tel Aviv and Arabs are forced to go to the polls under threat of fines that will raise their turnout, while it seems the right wing base (or at least the Haredi) will turn out no matter what; so mandatory voting should mean a left+Arabs majority.

Of course, mandatory voting is infinitely more democratic than banning the Joint list

I don't really think much of mandatory voting as a policy. The right to vote should also come with the right not to vote.

Mandatory voting does not work too badly in Australia and there is nothing to force an unwilling voter not to spoil their ballot. You could also include an explicit none of the above option on the ballot.

Most of Latin America also has mandatory voting and politicians are hardly amazing in the region

[America Needs R'hllor]

Hendel and Hauser are pushing for a unity government and reportedly refuse to support a minority government. Had a meeting with Yaalon where shouting was reportedly heard

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Hendel and Hauser are pushing for a unity government and reportedly refuse to support a minority government. Had a meeting with Yaalon where shouting was reportedly heard

The Israeli center-left is so masochistic that Yamina could probably win mandates out of Tel Aviv if their ads for election #4 had Shaked in a corset with a riding crop.

[The Mikado]

Hendel and Hauser are pushing for a unity government and reportedly refuse to support a minority government. Had a meeting with Yaalon where shouting was reportedly heard

So...do I have this right?

Balad's going to abstain no matter what (right?), so currently the vote on the mandate would be Gantz 59, Bibi 58. If these two refuse to vote for a majority government, then Gantz won't get the mandate. If Gantz doesn't get the mandate, the law to ban Bibi from being PM doesn't pass and the already shaky minority government hopes collapse.

Is this accurate?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Hendel and Hauser are pushing for a unity government and reportedly refuse to support a minority government. Had a meeting with Yaalon where shouting was reportedly heard

So...do I have this right?

Balad's going to abstain no matter what (right?), so currently the vote on the mandate would be Gantz 59, Bibi 58. If these two refuse to vote for a majority government, then Gantz won't get the mandate. If Gantz doesn't get the mandate, the law to ban Bibi from being PM doesn't pass and the already shaky minority government hopes collapse.

Is this accurate?

Support for Gantz getting the mandate isn't the same as support for the formation of any specific government, thank God.

[Walmart_shopper]

Hendel and Hauser are pushing for a unity government and reportedly refuse to support a minority government. Had a meeting with Yaalon where shouting was reportedly heard

This is why we can't have nice things in Israel.

But, truly, Gantz was foolish to keep them in the party after they torched his government in September. I would just bring a minority goverent to a vote and let Hauser and Handel bring down their oen government and keep indicted Bibi as prime minister. The only way a unity government works is with Bibi leading it.

[Walmart_shopper]

The Joint List has been warning Gantz that he will not get their votes if he tries to bury negotiations with them for political reasons. "Either come through the front door or don't come at all." Sure enough, KL officials will begin a media blitz supporting a minority government propped up by the Joint List and formal talks have been started.

At the same time, KL officials aren't convinced that Liberman's party is fully on board with a minority government, and as noted here even within KL there is a bit of chaos over how to proceed. The fantasy of a unity government is clearly dead. Netanyahu would vastly prefer new elections, anyway, and so there is really nothing to incentivize meaningful concessions (on immunity, for example) from him.So despite Hendel's preening on the matter, it's either a minority government or a fourth election. The Joint List is rather warm to the idea of a new election, believing that 18 seats is a realistic goal. Likud does not have much to lose from them, either. But everyone else, amd especially Blue and White, is likely terrified at tue idea of a fourth election. Even Hauser and Hendel would probably he booted from the party list, and would be left out in the cold (or as stooges for Bibi in the Likud). Se even believe that a growing coronavirus outbreak will make new elections implausible. So it seems that this really is a seminal moment in this now year-long drama.

Amit Segal wishcasted that Hendel and Hauser now controlled the process. But they really don't. There are ways to get enough votes for a mimoriry government with or without those two. But making it happen will require Gantz to courageoualy go all-in, even if the political presaure and narrow math makes doing it very, very tough.

I certainly can't even guess how this will turn out. My hunch, and I frequently repeat this, is that Benny Gantz is one of us. He is a man of the center-left, a man of democracy, a man of transformative change. But he lacks political courage. He listens to bad advice, he fears the people he is trying to lead, and he lacks the killer instinct that has served Bibi so well. If Gantz can't get this done now he likely never will. If I had to bet I'd say he realizes that the rubicon has already been crossed and that a political moment like this won't present itself a third time. Pull the trigger, Benny.

[BP🌹]

Benny Gantz is one of us. He is a man of the center-left, a man of democracy, a man of transformative change.

lol

[Walmart_shopper]

Benny Gantz is one of us. He is a man of the center-left, a man of democracy, a man of transformative change.

lol

When I say "center-left" I mean center-left and not "throw-Israel-into-the-sea-and-establish-a-mythically-woke-Islamic-republic-of-Palestine-instead" left.

[BP🌹]

Benny Gantz is one of us. He is a man of the center-left, a man of democracy, a man of transformative change.

lol

When I say "center-left" I mean center-left and not "throw-Israel-into-the-sea-and-establish-a-mythically-woke-Islamic-republic-of-Palestine-instead" left.

You have no arguments for how he can even be considered center-left, so instead you resort to wild accusations about my beliefs.

[Walmart_shopper]

Benny Gantz is one of us. He is a man of the center-left, a man of democracy, a man of transformative change.

lol

When I say "center-left" I mean center-left and not "throw-Israel-into-the-sea-and-establish-a-mythically-woke-Islamic-republic-of-Palestine-instead" left.

You have no arguments for how he can even be considered center-left, so instead you resort to wild accusations about my beliefs.

I have no idea about the extent of your beliefs. But I know that they are not what is considered center-left in Israeli discourse or that of most Western countries.