Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[The Mikado]

That's the day after Purim, I think. Keep the fun alive, right?

According to the Talmud, on election day one is to get so drunk that you can no longer tell the difference between the cries of "Praised be Gantz!" and "Cursed be Bibi!"

[The Mikado]

Meretz (are they still calling themselves The Democratic Camp, or are they coming to their senses and going back with the name with actual name recognition?) merging with the Joint List would be insane.

Meretz merging with Labor would actually make a fair amount of sense. What's left of the Zionist Left really isn't large enough to sustain two parties anymore.

[The Mikado]

So isn't the problem for March that Democratic Camp/Meretz might fall under the threshold and that that might screw up the left numbers? Do you all think the Democratic Camp is going to survive or not?

[The Mikado]

Any updates?

[The Mikado]

And your posts are a negation of intelligence, yet we don't call for you to disappear.

Speak for yourself.

[The Mikado]

So are we thinking Gantz actually does become PM on this, or screws up and there's a fourth election? Because during the last coalition negotiations, the left plus YB totaled 65. Now they total 62. The base dynamics are the same but with fewer seats. Aren't they just as likely to mess up over Balad being jerks or Lieberman getting cold feet (understandably, as this puts him on the same side as the Arabs, which his voters won't like) as they were last time?

[The Mikado]

Hendel and Hauser are pushing for a unity government and reportedly refuse to support a minority government. Had a meeting with Yaalon where shouting was reportedly heard

So...do I have this right?

Balad's going to abstain no matter what (right?), so currently the vote on the mandate would be Gantz 59, Bibi 58. If these two refuse to vote for a majority government, then Gantz won't get the mandate. If Gantz doesn't get the mandate, the law to ban Bibi from being PM doesn't pass and the already shaky minority government hopes collapse.

Is this accurate?

[The Mikado]

Could BP please take his hot takes somewhere that isn't the Israeli election thread? Create some horrible Israel/Palestine thread on the International General Discussion board that I can ignore?

This thread's for the government formation process in Israel. The Israeli/Palestinian debate is tangential and is hijacking the thread.

Just talking as a poster here, but this board is for discussing international elections and results. Actual debate is for the other boards.

[The Mikado]

Labor-Gesher-Meretz gets a mere 7 seats and one has to be wasted on her.

Does she (or even the word Gesher itself) actually bring a net gain of voters in? Seems like she's mostly dead weight.

[The Mikado]

It'd be a bitter pill for Lapid, too. The entire reason the Lapid family are in politics is to oppose the Haredim.

[The Mikado]

What are the chances that, when an actual minority government which includes Lieberman is actually proposed, Balad doesn't get cold feet? I'm just having difficulty imagining Balad actually actively voting to put a government with Yisrael Beiteinu in office.

[The Mikado]

FM is pointing out how criticizing Jewish individuals for putting Israel first is considered bigoted because muh dual loyalty, but criticizing any other diaspora group (like Irish Americans for supporting the IRA) isn't.

Dude, agreeing with and defending a Nazi is not a good look.

[The Mikado]

Blue and White jettisoning Yesh Atid and joining a Likud-led coalition would be...something truly dreadful.

It would still lead to the amusing prospect of the Joint List becoming the official opposition.

So this grand coalition would be the 36 members of Likud, the 20 members of Blue and White minus Yesh Atid, and...

[The Mikado]

So is election #4 pretty much inevitable now?

[The Mikado]

So RIP B&W. Is the entire Gantz faction coming along with him or are there a handful who will defect to Yesh Atid?

The Joint List can at least take solace that they have four years as a 15 seat faction ahead of them and are getting locked in at their highest seat count ever.

[The Mikado]

So what's this new government going to look like? Likud + Yamina + Haredi + Gantz's half of Blue and White?

[The Mikado]

So what's this new government going to look like? Likud + Yamina + Haredi + Gantz's half of Blue and White?

Yeah, the 58 from the right-religious bloc (Likud + Shas + UTJ + Yamina) + the 15 from Gantz's party Resilience + Hendel & Hauser. So at least 75 members in total.

Is Gabi Ashkenazi going along?

Are any members of Israeli Resilience defecting to Telem or Yesh Atid over this? I'd be shocked if every Resilience MK was OK with this.

[The Mikado]

Gadeer Mreeh isn’t going with Gantz.

Glad to see at least ONE member of Israeli Resilience has a spine. Not surprised it takes the Druze to be the moral conscience of the group.

[The Mikado]

Is Amir Peretz really going to do in the Israeli Labor Party so he can spend a year as Agriculture Minister? Really?

There's no way Israeli Labor hits the threshold again if people think it's likely to coalesce with Likud. What's the point?

[The Mikado]

That's probably the most likely direction for Yesh Atid to go in, presumably?

Presumably Yesh Atid's DNA makes that difficult. Yesh Atid's (and Shinui's before it) defining features are being A. secular (far and away A) and B. liberal, which makes it hard for it to be a broad based lefty party and more likely to appeal to the educated and the relatively well off. It also locks them off forever from trying to seduce the Haredim away from Likud, which would be the natural killshot against Likud but which secularists are inherently unable to do.

Feel free to shoot me down, Israelis, if I'm wrong on this, but that's how the Lapid clan and their parties have always appeared from the outside, at least.

[The Mikado]

Omg.

Details?

Help me out here.

Also, this has to be the end of the road for Gantz if we end up at a 4th election fresh off of backstabbing all his allies.

[The Mikado]

Will Meretz join the Joint List like they were supposed to in 2015?

This seems incredibly unlikely, especially in the event where Labor dies off so Meretz can be the "Zionist left" all by itself.

[The Mikado]

So if we are doing another election, would Yesh Atid run with what's left of Telem and Israeli Resilience or whatever Gantz wants to call it running with Labor? IIRC that's what people had been saying.

That'd probably lead Yesh Atid to be the single biggest opposition party.

[The Mikado]

Yamina dropping out only increases the importance of Labor/Gantz in the new government. This is really remarkable.

OTOH, if Netanyahu is holding true to the 50/50 Cabinet position split between the left and right in the new government, Yamina being on the outs just increases the share of posts for Likud (and the Haredim, I guess)

[The Mikado]

How will walking out on the right bloc in the coalition negotiations affect Yamina, if at all?