Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[America Needs R'hllor]

By the way, the Coronavirus thing is another reason that this is the last chance for Gantz to form a government. Bibi is handling it professionally and looks like a leader in a time of crisis- a new election (if it won't be postponed by a year or so) WILL give him a majority. Hendel, Hauser and Levy are practically going to destroy Israeli democracy if they aren't put back in line. This is the country's last chance.

[Walmart_shopper]

I wish Gantz could just toss out Lieberman and make a government with the Joint Lists and the Haredim. It just sounds so much better than letting in secular racists.

The Haredim are, unfortunately, also quite racist at this point. (My understanding is this wasn't always the case.)

Haredim are as racist as Haredi Judaism, which means very racist. But it isn't central to their political identity and agenda as it is on the secular (and national religious) right. The Joint List and Haredi parties are actually much more ideologically similar than you'd expect, because they are mainly concerned about the rights and access to government resources for their communities, and represent traditionally marginalized segments of the population.

[Walmart_shopper]

I wish Gantz could just toss out Lieberman and make a government with the Joint Lists and the Haredim. It just sounds so much better than letting in secular racists.

Yes, but Litzman and Deri each has a vested interest in immunity. Aside from that, yes, this wpuld he the ideal government for me.

[Walmart_shopper]

By the way, the Coronavirus thing is another reason that this is the last chance for Gantz to form a government. Bibi is handling it professionally and looks like a leader in a time of crisis- a new election (if it won't be postponed by a year or so) WILL give him a majority. Hendel, Hauser and Levy are practically going to destroy Israeli democracy if they aren't put back in line. This is the country's last chance.

Maybe. But the people who vote qgainst Bibi will vote against him no matter how well he does with the Corona response. I do agree that he has done well, even though the overall response by the country has been incoherent.

[Walmart_shopper]

Apparently Orly Levy won't even recommend Gantz to form the government. That's not a huge blow since Balad may actually recommend Gantz, giving him 61 votes. But it underscores the astonishing behavior of Orly Levy and the profound difficulty Gantz faces in forming a government. I would guess that a fourth epection is now more likely than a minority government, and I don't at all feel terribly hopeful about the outcome of that. I would also imagine that we'd see people like Stav Shaffir and Gadi Eisenkott get involved if we end up with a fourth election. While Bibi has lost 3 straight elections, it's good to remember that Gantz has, too.

[Hnv1]

More people are talking about a unity government in light of the Corona. I think it’s an excuse, Gantz knows he cannot afford another failure at forming a government

[jaymichaud]

More people are talking about a unity government in light of the Corona. I think it’s an excuse, Gantz knows he cannot afford another failure at forming a government

Lol, he should agree as long as he's leading it and see how the right's excuses hold up.

[Hnv1]

More people are talking about a unity government in light of the Corona. I think it’s an excuse, Gantz knows he cannot afford another failure at forming a government

Lol, he should agree as long as he's leading it and see how the right's excuses hold up.

He has no cards and the public mood here will be very hostile to political shenanigans now. I can’t see Gantz refusing really. It’s over

[Walmart_shopper]

More people are talking about a unity government in light of the Corona. I think it’s an excuse, Gantz knows he cannot afford another failure at forming a government

Lol, he should agree as long as he's leading it and see how the right's excuses hold up.

He has no cards and the public mood here will be very hostile to political shenanigans now. I can’t see Gantz refusing really. It’s over

Not at all. Gantz will get the mandate from the president in less than a week and he'll call on any and all parties to join his emergency government. That's not "political shenanigans," that's how forming a government in Israel works. If the Likud wants to place Bibi's immunity over governing the country through a health crisis then Gantz has a very strong argument for resisting unity and even forming a minority government. The country should not be captive to the Bibi personality cult when what we need most is good leadership.. And Gantz is far better equipped to lead right now than the guy who's bribery trial starts on Tuesday. The country blamed Bibi for the last election. I don't see why suddenly people have somehow become ignoramuses and can't see the obvious fact that our political crisis is at the hands of Bibi's personal problems, and thst inevitably harms our health and security.

[Hnv1]

More people are talking about a unity government in light of the Corona. I think it’s an excuse, Gantz knows he cannot afford another failure at forming a government

Lol, he should agree as long as he's leading it and see how the right's excuses hold up.

He has no cards and the public mood here will be very hostile to political shenanigans now. I can’t see Gantz refusing really. It’s over

Not at all. Gantz will get the mandate from the president in less than a week and he'll call on any and all parties to join his emergency government. That's not "political shenanigans," that's how forming a government in Israel works. If the Likud wants to place Bibi's immunity over governing the country through a health crisis then Gantz has a very strong argument for resisting unity and even forming a minority government. The country should not be captive to the Bibi personality cult when what we need most is good leadership.. And Gantz is far better equipped to lead right now than the guy who's bribery trial starts on Tuesday. The country blamed Bibi for the last election. I don't see why suddenly people have somehow become ignoramuses and can't see the obvious fact that our political crisis is at the hands of Bibi's personal problems, and thst inevitably harms our health and security.

Everyone knows the minority government can’t pass a vote, his MKs already came out against, YB today did a 180 and called for a unity government.

The general public doesn’t care much about democratic procedure when a pandemic is running amok. Sorry to say but I don’t think Gantz can hold on much longer

[Walmart_shopper]

In any case, I don't understand why Bibi using a pandemic and the lives of Israelis to stay in power and possibly to avoid a corruption trial is fine but Gantz using a democratically elected majority to take office is outré and "political shenanigans." Israeli voters may be poorly educated racists, as a whole, but they aren't pants-on-the-head morons. At least half of us see how plainly naked the Bibi unity ploy is.

[Walmart_shopper]

Where was this Benny Gantz two months, or even two weeks, ago? Bibi invited Gantz to national unity talks.

Gantz's response? Sure, if it includes the Arabs.

[Hnv1]

Where was this Benny Gantz two months, or even two weeks, ago? Bibi invited Gantz to national unity talks.

Gantz's response? Sure, if it includes the Arabs.

Actually showed a lot of guts. Kudos. Of course likud will say no but now they look the petty politicians

[Walmart_shopper]

Where was this Benny Gantz two months, or even two weeks, ago? Bibi invited Gantz to national unity talks.

Gantz's response? Sure, if it includes the Arabs.

Actually showed a lot of guts. Kudos. Of course likud will say no but now they look the petty politicians

Or racists. They'd rather have the Haredi guy being investigated for using the health ministry to cover up Haredi sex abuse of kids rather than Ahmad Tibi, M.D. as health minister.

Frankly, if people here are too dumb or racist to see that one correctly then it really doesn't matter what happens with the government because at that point Israel is irreparably doomed.

[Walmart_shopper]

Liberman proposed a government only of KL and Likud. This, too, is a decent idea. But Netanyahu won't accept either that or Gantz's proposal. Because Bibi isn't proposing the best possible government for our country in a time of crisis. He's proposing to provide the most political cover for his personal crisis. The degree to which this man stands at the heart of all of our biggest crises is amazing. But he stands there not as a fixer, as a leader, but as an instigator, as a cause. It is truly sickening.

[jaymichaud]

Where was this Benny Gantz two months, or even two weeks, ago? Bibi invited Gantz to national unity talks.

Gantz's response? Sure, if it includes the Arabs.

Gantz is right.

A unity government has historically meant a unity of the two largest parties (Labor and Likud, Kadima and Likud, B&W and Likud). NOT the entirety of one half of the political spectrum with the opposition clumsily thrown in.

This is just Likud trying to the same proposal they've been pushing for like 9 months just with a different excuse.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Still remains to be seen if Gantz will stick to his guns on this or not, but if it's the latter, I fear we'll be able to say "so that's how Israeli democracy dies, in an epidemic". Hendel and Hauser need to be forced in line.

[BP🌹]

Would I be wrong for thinking there's basically no chance that a Gantz government would last?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Would I be wrong for thinking there's basically no chance that a Gantz government would last?

Depends. You'd need a majority to dissolve the Knesset, so thar means Likud cooperating with the Joint List or with Yisrael Beiteinu. Person I think it wouldn't last long but who knows.

[Hnv1]

Would I be wrong for thinking there's basically no chance that a Gantz government would last?

Depends. You'd need a majority to dissolve the Knesset, so thar means Likud cooperating with the Joint List or with Yisrael Beiteinu. Person I think it wouldn't last long but who knows.

The Knesset also dissolves automatically if you can’t pass the budget (thanks to the Prussian constitutional crisis of 1870’s). But I think the working assumption was that they would work quite fast on broadening the government exploiting Shaw’s inherent pull towards money

[America Needs R'hllor]

Would I be wrong for thinking there's basically no chance that a Gantz government would last?

Depends. You'd need a majority to dissolve the Knesset, so thar means Likud cooperating with the Joint List or with Yisrael Beiteinu. Person I think it wouldn't last long but who knows.

The Knesset also dissolves automatically if you can’t pass the budget (thanks to the Prussian constitutional crisis of 1870’s). But I think the working assumption was that they would work quite fast on broadening the government exploiting Shaw’s inherent pull towards money

Yeah, in any case it's mostly theoretical right now, a minority government seems unlikely to me. Except if the wonder couple can be reined in.

[Walmart_shopper]

Would I be wrong for thinking there's basically no chance that a Gantz government would last?

Depends. You'd need a majority to dissolve the Knesset, so thar means Likud cooperating with the Joint List or with Yisrael Beiteinu. Person I think it wouldn't last long but who knows.

The Knesset also dissolves automatically if you can’t pass the budget (thanks to the Prussian constitutional crisis of 1870’s). But I think the working assumption was that they would work quite fast on broadening the government exploiting Shaw’s inherent pull towards money

Yeah, in any case it's mostly theoretical right now, a minority government seems unlikely to me. Except if the wonder couple can be reined in.

I think that the wonder couple are willing to go a lot farther than it seems, even if they won't go for a Gantz minority government. Gantz should still get the mandate. He'll still have the votes to get rid of Edelstein. And if he plays his cards right he may even get at least an abstention from Hauser and Handel on a vote for a government. He has taken some awfully big risks, together with Liberman, for someone with no cards to play. At the very least I hope Balad rewards him with their recommendation on Sunday.

[Walmart_shopper]

I have generally tried to avoid conspiracy mongering about the government's Corona policy and Netanyahu's political future. But, honestly, as Israel (130 Corona cases, no deaths) into Italy-level lockdown (15,000 cases, 1200 deaths), I am beginning to find it hard to unsee what I'm seeing. They are even talking concretely about delaying Bibi's trial indefinitely right now because the justice system may go into shutfown. We all waited for Netanyahi's gevalt campaign, and maybe now we are seeing it, as Bibi warns of "losing generations of Israelis." He is literally trying to terrify the country, whicj is something I haven't seen from any other world leader, including in places with exponentially higher rates of infection (France, UK, US, South Korea, Australia, and on and on). Forget how reckless this is. The fact that it plausibly is part of an effort to stay in power is top-class orwellian work.

I actually do think that Corona is a real threat, and something worthy of very serious attention and treatment. But we are getting to a point of pandemonium, which is something no leader wants to evoke unless it serves them in distinctly personal ways.

[jaymichaud]

Levy is calling for a unity government 🤔

[Estrella]

Delaying the trial actually makes sense to prevent lots of people congregating in one place and spreading the disease, and it might well happen.

The iron law of Israeli politics: Bibi is one massively lucky bastard.