Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[America Needs R'hllor]

I analyzed some other results and got some curious stuff:

First, there's one (1) Otzma voter in the nearby Arab village.
It's a huge decrease from the 2 they got in the last round

Tel Aviv
Democratic Camp alone- 38,298
MLG- 38,797
19,208 Labour voters mostly gone. KL went 113,843 -> 128,591 which is mostly these voters but it still leaves a few thousands, so I could see some south Tel Aviv Kulanu->Labour->Likud too. Oh and also these guys: JL 8,446->11,410, but it's probably mostly from Jaffe turnout increase.

Jerusalem
Some interesting sh**t going on here. Overall turnout increase is just 0.1%, some 2000 people.
LGM with 12,919, while last time DC was at 9,391 and Labour 8,846, so it seems about 6K went to KL (or to some extent JL\Likud).
Now for the real boom:
UTJ was the largest party with 64,937, Likud second at 59,798.
Now it's Likud with 72,601, UTJ with 63,782, interesting because nationally the UTJ votes rose (curse reproduction). So Likud rose by a huge amount- about 12K.
Shas actually rose by 3000 votes in Jerusalem, so their voters didn't go to Likud. I guess a few UTJ ones did.
Also YB who fell by 2000, and Otzma who went 8,794->1,784, all probably went Likud.
Joint List is 3,582 -> 5,321, which probably accounts for all of the rise in turnout- Likud didn't get almost any new voters in Jerusalem.
Now, remember how the left lost 6K to KL? Well, KL only rose by 2K. So where did 4K go? Likud, I guess.
Which means that Likud's 12K and Shas' 3K rise could mostly be accounted for by: 1K UTJ, 7K Otzma, 2K YB, 4K KL. That's 14K of the 15K, the rest are a smathering of new voters, tiny parties and weird voters. Probably also Labour voters but I counted them as KL because they're part of the same overall flow in my mind.

[Continential]

I analyzed some other results and got some curious stuff:

First, there's one (1) Otzma voter in the nearby Arab village.
It's a huge decrease from the 2 they got in the last round

Tel Aviv
Democratic Camp alone- 38,298
MLG- 38,797
19,208 Labour voters mostly gone. KL went 113,843 -> 128,591 which is mostly these voters but it still leaves a few thousands, so I could see some south Tel Aviv Kulanu->Labour->Likud too. Oh and also these guys: JL 8,446->11,410, but it's probably mostly from Jaffe turnout increase.

Jerusalem
Some interesting sh**t going on here. Overall turnout increase is just 0.1%, some 2000 people.
LGM with 12,919, while last time DC was at 9,391 and Labour 8,846, so it seems about 6K went to KL (or to some extent JL\Likud).
Now for the real boom:
UTJ was the largest party with 64,937, Likud second at 59,798.
Now it's Likud with 72,601, UTJ with 63,782, interesting because nationally the UTJ votes rose (curse reproduction). So Likud rose by a huge amount- about 12K.
Shas actually rose by 3000 votes in Jerusalem, so their voters didn't go to Likud. I guess a few UTJ ones did.
Also YB who fell by 2000, and Otzma who went 8,794->1,784, all probably went Likud.
Joint List is 3,582 -> 5,321, which probably accounts for all of the rise in turnout- Likud didn't get almost any new voters in Jerusalem.
Now, remember how the left lost 6K to KL? Well, KL only rose by 2K. So where did 4K go? Likud, I guess.
Which means that Likud's 12K and Shas' 3K rise could mostly be accounted for by: 1K UTJ, 7K Otzma, 2K YB, 4K KL. That's 14K of the 15K, the rest are a smathering of new voters, tiny parties and weird voters. Probably also Labour voters but I counted them as KL because they're part of the same overall flow in my mind.

Imagine being that Otzma voter in that Arab Village, the person who most likely voted for Otzma was mostly likely a troll.

[Oryxslayer]

Another thought may be that certain parties election 2 voters may have gone from voting to the couch,  which would mean that Bibi juiced up Likud turnout even more than the number on the tin.

[Hnv1]

I analyzed some other results and got some curious stuff:

First, there's one (1) Otzma voter in the nearby Arab village.
It's a huge decrease from the 2 they got in the last round

Tel Aviv
Democratic Camp alone- 38,298
MLG- 38,797
19,208 Labour voters mostly gone. KL went 113,843 -> 128,591 which is mostly these voters but it still leaves a few thousands, so I could see some south Tel Aviv Kulanu->Labour->Likud too. Oh and also these guys: JL 8,446->11,410, but it's probably mostly from Jaffe turnout increase.

Jerusalem
Some interesting sh**t going on here. Overall turnout increase is just 0.1%, some 2000 people.
LGM with 12,919, while last time DC was at 9,391 and Labour 8,846, so it seems about 6K went to KL (or to some extent JL\Likud).
Now for the real boom:
UTJ was the largest party with 64,937, Likud second at 59,798.
Now it's Likud with 72,601, UTJ with 63,782, interesting because nationally the UTJ votes rose (curse reproduction). So Likud rose by a huge amount- about 12K.
Shas actually rose by 3000 votes in Jerusalem, so their voters didn't go to Likud. I guess a few UTJ ones did.
Also YB who fell by 2000, and Otzma who went 8,794->1,784, all probably went Likud.
Joint List is 3,582 -> 5,321, which probably accounts for all of the rise in turnout- Likud didn't get almost any new voters in Jerusalem.
Now, remember how the left lost 6K to KL? Well, KL only rose by 2K. So where did 4K go? Likud, I guess.
Which means that Likud's 12K and Shas' 3K rise could mostly be accounted for by: 1K UTJ, 7K Otzma, 2K YB, 4K KL. That's 14K of the 15K, the rest are a smathering of new voters, tiny parties and weird voters. Probably also Labour voters but I counted them as KL because they're part of the same overall flow in my mind.

Imagine being that Otzma voter in that Arab Village, the person who most likely voted for Otzma was mostly likely a troll.

The people manning the polling station are party representatives and vote there, when you see this weird things it’s usually one of them.

[Former President tack50]

Wait, Netanyahu announces, you're looking at this all wrong. I did win, and I won big. My bloc got 58 seats and Gantz only got 47. That's a solid majority of the Knesset. What about the Joint List, you ask. "The terror supporters aren't in the picture." They don't count. 

He said the same thing in September, of course. Which only helped create the historic result for the Joint List two nights ago. And it is clear that in the hate-filled little world of the Israeli far right it really would be a better, more pristine country if Arab votes didn't count. But Arab Israelis know better than that. They know that, at least for now, an Arab vote is as good as a Jewish one, and that only by staying homr on election day can that core democratic reality be done away with. So they voted. They voted, in many places, at a 70 to 80 percent turnout. They earned their chosen party three extra mandates--the exact number Bibi's phantom majority is missing. Of course Bibi is trying to delegitimize their achievement, then. After all, if Gantz and his allies have the courage to honor the mandate given by voters, that achievement will be Netanyahu's political death. That those most responsible for his fall will he those he spent a career anathemizing will be one of the sweetest and most hopeful moments in this country's short history.

The future in Israel is too often marked by the shadowy gloom of conflict and injustice. This, though, is an unmistakeable bright spot. A very small one, but it gives just enough light to see a more cooperative, hopeful future based on building bridges rather than walls.

I mean, if Netanyahu's bloc got an actual majority is it that big of a stretch to imagine them drafting a bill to outlaw the Joint List? (or at least parts of it)

Especially considering Israel's current law already outlaws non-Zionist parties if I remember correctly, even if that part is not exactly enforced.

[CumbrianLefty]

Bans of that sort are rarely effective in the long run, as well as being anti-democratic.

[Former President tack50]

Bans of that sort are rarely effective in the long run, as well as being anti-democratic.

Anti-democratic? Normally yeah, though I can see arguments for terrorists and what not; but the Joint List does not fulfill this criteria. Very hypothetically, a party that would fulfill it would be for example if Hezbollah ran candidates in Israel (somehow).

Ineffective? Depends on how well enforced they are. Israel already bans such parties on paper, they just don't enforce it.

In any case, it would be up to the Israeli courts and the Israeli government to enforce such a ban. A Netanyahu majority government would certainly be ruthless on that area so no problems there. So it would be up to the courts.

Of course, its effectiveness also depends on how wide-reaching it is and how do Arabs react.

A ban that say, leaves Hadash legal (but not the other JL Parties) and Arabs react by just voting for them would be essencially meaningless, accounting to just a couple seats less. Or if say, Arabs just moved to Labor as the lesser evil.

A completely ruthless ban that leaves no anti-Zionist or even ambiguous parties whatsoever and with arabs reacting by staying home and spoiling their ballots would be extremely effective.

[jaymichaud]

Wait, Netanyahu announces, you're looking at this all wrong. I did win, and I won big. My bloc got 58 seats and Gantz only got 47. That's a solid majority of the Knesset. What about the Joint List, you ask. "The terror supporters aren't in the picture." They don't count.  

He said the same thing in September, of course. Which only helped create the historic result for the Joint List two nights ago. And it is clear that in the hate-filled little world of the Israeli far right it really would be a better, more pristine country if Arab votes didn't count. But Arab Israelis know better than that. They know that, at least for now, an Arab vote is as good as a Jewish one, and that only by staying homr on election day can that core democratic reality be done away with. So they voted. They voted, in many places, at a 70 to 80 percent turnout. They earned their chosen party three extra mandates--the exact number Bibi's phantom majority is missing. Of course Bibi is trying to delegitimize their achievement, then. After all, if Gantz and his allies have the courage to honor the mandate given by voters, that achievement will be Netanyahu's political death. That those most responsible for his fall will he those he spent a career anathemizing will be one of the sweetest and most hopeful moments in this country's short history.

The future in Israel is too often marked by the shadowy gloom of conflict and injustice. This, though, is an unmistakeable bright spot. A very small one, but it gives just enough light to see a more cooperative, hopeful future based on building bridges rather than walls.

I mean, if Netanyahu's bloc got an actual majority is it that big of a stretch to imagine them drafting a bill to outlaw the Joint List? (or at least parts of it)

Especially considering Israel's current law already outlaws non-Zionist parties if I remember correctly, even if that part is not exactly enforced.

Lol no. They didn’t even ban Haneen Zoabi for one election, banning The Joint List is out of the question.

[Walmart_shopper]

Wait, Netanyahu announces, you're looking at this all wrong. I did win, and I won big. My bloc got 58 seats and Gantz only got 47. That's a solid majority of the Knesset. What about the Joint List, you ask. "The terror supporters aren't in the picture." They don't count.  

He said the same thing in September, of course. Which only helped create the historic result for the Joint List two nights ago. And it is clear that in the hate-filled little world of the Israeli far right it really would be a better, more pristine country if Arab votes didn't count. But Arab Israelis know better than that. They know that, at least for now, an Arab vote is as good as a Jewish one, and that only by staying homr on election day can that core democratic reality be done away with. So they voted. They voted, in many places, at a 70 to 80 percent turnout. They earned their chosen party three extra mandates--the exact number Bibi's phantom majority is missing. Of course Bibi is trying to delegitimize their achievement, then. After all, if Gantz and his allies have the courage to honor the mandate given by voters, that achievement will be Netanyahu's political death. That those most responsible for his fall will he those he spent a career anathemizing will be one of the sweetest and most hopeful moments in this country's short history.

The future in Israel is too often marked by the shadowy gloom of conflict and injustice. This, though, is an unmistakeable bright spot. A very small one, but it gives just enough light to see a more cooperative, hopeful future based on building bridges rather than walls.

I mean, if Netanyahu's bloc got an actual majority is it that big of a stretch to imagine them drafting a bill to outlaw the Joint List? (or at least parts of it)

Especially considering Israel's current law already outlaws non-Zionist parties if I remember correctly, even if that part is not exactly enforced.

Lol no. They didn’t even ban Haneen Zoabi for one election, banning The Joint List is out of the question.

They ban Zoabi all the time. It just always gets overturned by the Supreme Court. If they could get away with banning the entire Joint List the right would not hesitate to do so.

[Walmart_shopper]

A Yisrael Beuteinu and Blue and White MK each gave separate assurances that a government was going to be formed and that a fourth election would be avoided. The KL MK offered support to a minority government propped up by the Joint List, although je said that including in the government was out of the question (baby steps, right?). Ayman Odeh will lead a meeting of his faction today, at which they are expected to discuss recommending Gantz to form the government. Anything can happen (just look at this last week), but I would be very, very surprised if at least 12 of the 15 Joint List MKs do not recommend Gantz and ultimately support a leftist minority government. The Joint Lists's list of demands for supporting Gantz is ridiculously modest. Usually parties ask for the whole moon, get a small sliver of it, and walk away glad they at least weren't eclipsed. The Joint List is asking for a very small sliver.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I guess the dynamics for the JL in negotiations are likely to be somewhat different anyway? For other parties, once they've committed to backing a coalition, they can't renege without having a very good story to tell their voters and risk losing a lot of support to their erstwhile partners or lowering base turnout. Whereas the JL represents a distinct pillar that these days no other party really has much support in and making the argument that this pillar is being taken for granted is a good way to energise turnout.

[America Needs R'hllor]

A Yisrael Beuteinu and Blue and White MK each gave separate assurances that a government was going to be formed and that a fourth election would be avoided. The KL MK offered support to a minority government propped up by the Joint List, although je said that including in the government was out of the question (baby steps, right?). Ayman Odeh will lead a meeting of his faction today, at which they are expected to discuss recommending Gantz to form the government. Anything can happen (just look at this last week), but I would be very, very surprised if at least 12 of the 15 Joint List MKs do not recommend Gantz and ultimately support a leftist minority government. The Joint Lists's list of demands for supporting Gantz is ridiculously modest. Usually parties ask for the whole moon, get a small sliver of it, and walk away glad they at least weren't eclipsed. The Joint List is asking for a very small sliver.

I'd say that the biggest obstacle here is Yisrael Beiteinu, though. Did they give any sign that they'd support this minority government, regardless of recommending Gantz?

[Walmart_shopper]

A Yisrael Beuteinu and Blue and White MK each gave separate assurances that a government was going to be formed and that a fourth election would be avoided. The KL MK offered support to a minority government propped up by the Joint List, although je said that including in the government was out of the question (baby steps, right?). Ayman Odeh will lead a meeting of his faction today, at which they are expected to discuss recommending Gantz to form the government. Anything can happen (just look at this last week), but I would be very, very surprised if at least 12 of the 15 Joint List MKs do not recommend Gantz and ultimately support a leftist minority government. The Joint Lists's list of demands for supporting Gantz is ridiculously modest. Usually parties ask for the whole moon, get a small sliver of it, and walk away glad they at least weren't eclipsed. The Joint List is asking for a very small sliver.

I'd say that the biggest obstacle here is Yisrael Beiteinu, though. Did they give any sign that they'd support this minority government, regardless of recommending Gantz?

Channel 13 reported last night that KL officials are aiming to form a government before addressing the various legislative proposals we've heard about. And Liberman did say privately that his primary goal is removing Bibi. None of that can happen without both the Joint List and YB.

It's also helpful to repeat the rumor from last election, which suggests that everyone (including Liberman) was good for a minority government but tuen Hauser and Hendel torpedoed it. Obviously that could happen again, but I doubt that Liberman is actually as resistant to the idea as common wisdom suggests.

The problem is more Gantz and KL's lack of killer instinct. When you are about to do something very controversial you have to go all-in, and quickly. Gantz needs to ink a deal with all parties, have a government ready to go within houra of getting the mandate, and strike fast and hard. They may actually be doing that, but it seems like they are still nervous about it politically and liable to talk themselves out of it. Joint Liat vowing to recommend Gantz woupd certainly put the pressure on Gantz to get it done.

[jaymichaud]

Are there any statements from any JL MKs?

[Walmart_shopper]

Benny Gantz gave an extraordinary speech tonight, and one that many on the left have been dying to hear for a year (or more) from him. He basically threw down the gauntlet on all of Bibi's diviseness, his use of ethnic and political schisms for his own political gain, and his incitement against foundational democratic ideals. It was, Daphne Leal arguedz Gantz's way of doing away with pretense and politesse and introducing a minority government to a skeptical public.

Well done, Benny. Well done.

[Walmart_shopper]

Are there any statements from any JL MKs?

Yes, one announced that Gantz still doesn't understand that he has no mandate unless he concretely and publicly recognizes his the Joint List as a cooperative partner.

[Hnv1]

Are there any statements from any JL MKs?

Yes, one announced that Gantz still doesn't understand that he has no mandate unless he concretely and publicly recognizes his the Joint List as a cooperative partner.

As usual Kassif and Toma Saliman will screw everything because Maki wants to be more radical than Balad. Damn commies

[Walmart_shopper]

Are there any statements from any JL MKs?

Yes, one announced that Gantz still doesn't understand that he has no mandate unless he concretely and publicly recognizes his the Joint List as a cooperative partner.

As usual Kassif and Toma Saliman will screw everything because Maki wants to be more radical than Balad. Damn commies

Oh I'm pretty sure it's just posturing, preening, etc. The Joint List has never really planned NOT to recommend Gantz, but they apparently just want to strut after getting 15 mandates.

[The Mikado]

So are we thinking Gantz actually does become PM on this, or screws up and there's a fourth election? Because during the last coalition negotiations, the left plus YB totaled 65. Now they total 62. The base dynamics are the same but with fewer seats. Aren't they just as likely to mess up over Balad being jerks or Lieberman getting cold feet (understandably, as this puts him on the same side as the Arabs, which his voters won't like) as they were last time?

[Hnv1]

So are we thinking Gantz actually does become PM on this, or screws up and there's a fourth election? Because during the last coalition negotiations, the left plus YB totaled 65. Now they total 62. The base dynamics are the same but with fewer seats. Aren't they just as likely to mess up over Balad being jerks or Lieberman getting cold feet (understandably, as this puts him on the same side as the Arabs, which his voters won't like) as they were last time?

it will boil down to Hendel/Hauser causing problems XOR Balad+Kassif causing problems. if either happens it will be untenable.

[America Needs R'hllor]

So are we thinking Gantz actually does become PM on this, or screws up and there's a fourth election? Because during the last coalition negotiations, the left plus YB totaled 65. Now they total 62. The base dynamics are the same but with fewer seats. Aren't they just as likely to mess up over Balad being jerks or Lieberman getting cold feet (understandably, as this puts him on the same side as the Arabs, which his voters won't like) as they were last time?

it will boil down to Hendel/Hauser causing problems XOR Balad+Kassif causing problems. if either happens it will be untenable.

I wouldn't discount Ra'am cutting a deal with Likud either. KL are being dumb about this and don't seem to be making effort at getting the JL's support, taking them for granted.

[Walmart_shopper]

So are we thinking Gantz actually does become PM on this, or screws up and there's a fourth election? Because during the last coalition negotiations, the left plus YB totaled 65. Now they total 62. The base dynamics are the same but with fewer seats. Aren't they just as likely to mess up over Balad being jerks or Lieberman getting cold feet (understandably, as this puts him on the same side as the Arabs, which his voters won't like) as they were last time?

I think it's more likely than not that Gantz gets the minority government done. But ut's sonewhat of a high-wire act so a new election would not surprise me.

[Walmart_shopper]

So are we thinking Gantz actually does become PM on this, or screws up and there's a fourth election? Because during the last coalition negotiations, the left plus YB totaled 65. Now they total 62. The base dynamics are the same but with fewer seats. Aren't they just as likely to mess up over Balad being jerks or Lieberman getting cold feet (understandably, as this puts him on the same side as the Arabs, which his voters won't like) as they were last time?

it will boil down to Hendel/Hauser causing problems XOR Balad+Kassif causing problems. if either happens it will be untenable.

I wouldn't discount Ra'am cutting a deal with Likud either. KL are being dumb about this and don't seem to be making effort at getting the JL's support, taking them for granted.

It's hard to know how much of that is just spin. In coalition negotiations everyone likes to squeeze the lemon. The Joint List wants to support Gantz, and likely will, but I suspect internal conflict in Blue and White is making it hard for Gantz to make this quick and easy.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Lieberman's terms for entering a coalition:
Conscription law as agreed upon last year, minimum income of 70% from the minimum wage for seniors who live from benefits, moving all authority on public transportation and businesses in Saturday to the municipal authorities, civil marriage, and conversion by any city Rabbies (would make it easier). Gantz's response: "Agreed".

If somehow they make it happen... we might just get same sex marriage soon. KL needs to start passing these laws immediately when a government is formed to distract from any right-wing provocations regarding the Joint List.

[Hnv1]

Lieberman's terms for entering a coalition:
Conscription law as agreed upon last year, minimum income of 70% from the minimum wage for seniors who live from benefits, moving all authority on public transportation and businesses in Saturday to the municipal authorities, civil marriage, and conversion by any city Rabbies (would make it easier). Gantz's response: "Agreed".

If somehow they make it happen... we might just get same sex marriage soon. KL needs to start passing these laws immediately when a government is formed to distract from any right-wing provocations regarding the Joint List.

I wouldn't count on the JL with SSMs...Balad and parts of Hadash might be the only supporters. don't forget Ra'am and Ta'al have a lot of people making a living from the 9 (thirteen!) Islamic courts operating in Israel