Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[jaymichaud]

So a recording came out of a known Rabbi promising Netanyahu to get dirt on Gantz out of the aforementioned advisor. Additionally, what SHOULD be the Israeli Watergate came out recently- a cyber company created right before the April election paid for spying on Gantz to get dirt of him, with the mediator being an attorney close to Netanyahu and others close to the PM involved.

It could hamper Likud's momentum right before election, but then again, it could change nothing too.

Likud voters don’t give two tosses on that, they know Bibi is a liar and a crook and that’s why they like him. They think this is part of the reasons is a diplomatic mastermind and whatever. You’re looking for decency where there is none

25% of Likud voters are Saar supporters who don't support Bibi. They are usually socially liberal, younger Ashkenazi voters. They could go three ways. They could stay home because they won't leave the Likud but they won'y support Bibi. They could vote for Bibi because, hey, it's better than the Arabs. Or they could actually cross over and suppoet Gantz. I don't think the last option is likely, because those voters hqve already crossed over by now. But if this keeps a single mandate worth of soft Likud voters from bothering to vote--and it might--that's a big deal.

They could have crossed over to Lieberman if he'd kept up the "#NeverBibi Right" shtick but he didn't so *shrug*

[jaymichaud]

So if Bibi is out of 10 Balfour what happens to B&W? Do the three parties split or join other alliances?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/TzviJoffre/status/1234199429374234626

Presented without comment as simply the next kitchen sink being thrown right now,

[Oryxslayer]

Official Returns site:

https://votes23.bechirot.gov.il/nationalresults

YNet usually has an election map up eventually, don't see it so far. However, here's their main election page:

https://www.ynet.co.il/home/0,7340,L-30732,00.html

[Walmart_shopper]

A couple of tidbuts...

The Likud seems to think that the last couple of weeks have been very good to them and that the momentum at their backs has carried through the weekend, leaving them maybe a single mandate shoet of a majority. Other rumors suggest that the Eshel tape really hurt the Likud, their momentum has stopped, and that KL is even possibly enjoying a late surge. The infuriating thing about this election is that both are totally plausible, and it's hard to tell who is bluffing.

Overseas voting is down 3 points from September, and about 10% from April. That is probably reflective of a broader trend we'll see this election.

Speaking of turnout, in September the early turnout reports suggested a big increase in turnout, which conventional wisdom suggests is usually very good for the Likud because their voters are usually the ones to stay home. In fact, the Likud votera DID stay home, and the big uptick we saw in turnout was entirely from the Arab sector. Analysts expect turnout among Arabs to further spike, so don't be surprised if turnout reports seem surprisingly good. It may not necessarily be a Bibi wave, though.

[Walmart_shopper]

In an hour or so we'll get a report of turnout as of 10am. In the meantime here you can determine the party with which your views most closely align:


https://electionsvote.mako.co.il

I got:

Joint List 90%
Meretz-Labor 85%
Blue and White 73%

Sounds about right.

[Hnv1]

Just voted, it wasn’t as packed as September and this is a heavy Gantz area...

Stood there for two minutes with JL and B&W before I decided

[danny]

In an hour or so we'll get a report of turnout as of 10am. In the meantime here you can determine the party with which your views most closely align:


https://electionsvote.mako.co.il

I got:

Joint List 90%
Meretz-Labor 85%
Blue and White 73%

Sounds about right.

91%  Yisrael Beitenu
74% Likud
67% Blue And White

I understand why it gave me Beitenu, but I voted Likud.

[cp]

In an hour or so we'll get a report of turnout as of 10am. In the meantime here you can determine the party with which your views most closely align:


https://electionsvote.mako.co.il

I got:

Joint List 90%
Meretz-Labor 85%
Blue and White 73%

Sounds about right.

I don't support there's an English translation of the site

Any updates on the 10am turnout?

[America Needs R'hllor]

98% LGM, 91% JL, 90% KL. Not surprising.

Anyway I have a really bad feeling, all anecdotal reports so far have been bad. I think almost certainly that the right will at the very least become bigger than the center left this time. Meanwhile, here's my case for why Netanyahu has to go and why I'm voting LGM:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=362330.msg7211556#new

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout as of 10am was 14.5%. In September it was 15%, April it was 12.9%, and in 2015 it was 14.3%. So pretty average.

[Walmart_shopper]

98% LGM, 91% JL, 90% KL. Not surprising.

Anyway I have a really bad feeling, all anecdotal reports so far have been bad. I think almost certainly that the right will at the very least become bigger than the center left this time. Meanwhile, here's my case for why Netanyahu has to go and why I'm voting LGM:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=362330.msg7211556#new

The only thing worse than anecdotal reports are anecdotal reports before 10 in the morning. It is impossible to tell anything until actual turnout figures start to cone in from different places and the day goes on.

[cp]

Turnout as of 10am was 14.5%. In September it was 15%, April it was 12.9%, and in 2015 it was 13.5%. So pretty average.

Cheers!

Since we have nothing to do but wait, there's a question I always wanted to ask about Likud: how much coherence does it have as a party without Netanyahu as its leader? Are its supporters natural allies with one another ideologically? Does it have a web of internal institutions that help sustain it? Bibi's been the dominating personality in it for so long I've never really been able to tell how much there is (left) underneath him.

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout as of 10am was 14.5%. In September it was 15%, April it was 12.9%, and in 2015 it was 13.5%. So pretty average.

Cheers!

Since we have nothing to do but wait, there's a question I always wanted to ask about Likud: how much coherence does it have as a party without Netanyahu as its leader? Are its supporters natural allies with one another ideologically? Does it have a web of internal institutions that help sustain it? Bibi's been the dominating personality in it for so long I've never really been able to tell how much there is (left) underneath him.

Traditionally the Likud is a big tent party, and goes from liberal and secular Ashkenazim to traditional Mizrahim to settlers in the territories. That tent has shrunk sonewhat and the settlers and religious component have become much more prominent. It's a lot like the US Republican Party, actually. But also like the GOP it is increasingly less about ideas and policy and more about the man who leads it. A Bibi-less Likud is incredibly lost and aimless, which is why they are so reticent to toss him aside.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Turnout as of 10am was 14.5%. In September it was 15%, April it was 12.9%, and in 2015 it was 13.5%. So pretty average.

Cheers!

Since we have nothing to do but wait, there's a question I always wanted to ask about Likud: how much coherence does it have as a party without Netanyahu as its leader? Are its supporters natural allies with one another ideologically? Does it have a web of internal institutions that help sustain it? Bibi's been the dominating personality in it for so long I've never really been able to tell how much there is (left) underneath him.

In addition to what Walmart_shopper said, I'd add that Likud does have internal institutions  that on paper should make for a solid party- important bodies that vote and make decisions within the party. But in the decade of Bibi, he slowly but surely took more and more control over the party, running off those who pose a threat (and thus any people of real talent). After him, Likud could very much be in turmoil. But maybe it'll be able to survive thanks to its history, its strong base and its institutions. We'll see (hopefully).

98% LGM, 91% JL, 90% KL. Not surprising.

Anyway I have a really bad feeling, all anecdotal reports so far have been bad. I think almost certainly that the right will at the very least become bigger than the center left this time. Meanwhile, here's my case for why Netanyahu has to go and why I'm voting LGM:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=362330.msg7211556#new

The only thing worse than anecdotal reports are anecdotal reports before 10 in the morning. It is impossible to tell anything until actual turnout figures start to cone in from different places and the day goes on.

Yeah, I guess. But I'm stressed!

[Walmart_shopper]

One report says that Arab turnout in various communities is generally between 9-11 percent. That's not overwhelming, but it's decent. Arab voters tend to get going a bit later and the turnout picture from that sector only becomes more clear as the day goes on. In September Arab turnout was generally pretty weak, but by midday people began to realize that Arabs were indeed showing up in decent numbers.

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout as of 10am was 14.5%. In September it was 15%, April it was 12.9%, and in 2015 it was 13.5%. So pretty average.

Cheers!

Since we have nothing to do but wait, there's a question I always wanted to ask about Likud: how much coherence does it have as a party without Netanyahu as its leader? Are its supporters natural allies with one another ideologically? Does it have a web of internal institutions that help sustain it? Bibi's been the dominating personality in it for so long I've never really been able to tell how much there is (left) underneath him.

In addition to what Walmart_shopper said, I'd add that Likud does have internal institutions  that on paper should make for a solid party- important bodies that vote and make decisions within the party. But in the decade of Bibi, he slowly but surely took more and more control over the party, running off those who pose a threat (and thus any people of real talent). After him, Likud could very much be in turmoil. But maybe it'll be able to survive thanks to its history, its strong base and its institutions. We'll see (hopefully).

98% LGM, 91% JL, 90% KL. Not surprising.

Anyway I have a really bad feeling, all anecdotal reports so far have been bad. I think almost certainly that the right will at the very least become bigger than the center left this time. Meanwhile, here's my case for why Netanyahu has to go and why I'm voting LGM:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=362330.msg7211556#new

The only thing worse than anecdotal reports are anecdotal reports before 10 in the morning. It is impossible to tell anything until actual turnout figures start to cone in from different places and the day goes on.

Yeah, I guess. But I'm stressed!

I'm freaking out, personally, but real data is usually better than hysteria. I just don't know why we haven't already gotten six Bibi videos hyperventilating about six Arabs spotted in Taybeh voting and a guy on an electric scooter on Frischman who said he is a Gantz man. The lack of hysteria is really unnerving.

[danny]

Cheers!

Since we have nothing to do but wait, there's a question I always wanted to ask about Likud: how much coherence does it have as a party without Netanyahu as its leader? Are its supporters natural allies with one another ideologically? Does it have a web of internal institutions that help sustain it? Bibi's been the dominating personality in it for so long I've never really been able to tell how much there is (left) underneath him.

In terms of national questions they are close enough to one another that there isn't to much trouble. Economically though there are big differences, going from the ideological capitalism of Sharren Haskel to the union politics of Haim Katz (the two are quite open about their dislike for one another). Most try to be vaguely capitalist without really going out of their way to move the country in that direction.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Turnout as of 10am was 14.5%. In September it was 15%, April it was 12.9%, and in 2015 it was 13.5%. So pretty average.

Cheers!

Since we have nothing to do but wait, there's a question I always wanted to ask about Likud: how much coherence does it have as a party without Netanyahu as its leader? Are its supporters natural allies with one another ideologically? Does it have a web of internal institutions that help sustain it? Bibi's been the dominating personality in it for so long I've never really been able to tell how much there is (left) underneath him.

In addition to what Walmart_shopper said, I'd add that Likud does have internal institutions  that on paper should make for a solid party- important bodies that vote and make decisions within the party. But in the decade of Bibi, he slowly but surely took more and more control over the party, running off those who pose a threat (and thus any people of real talent). After him, Likud could very much be in turmoil. But maybe it'll be able to survive thanks to its history, its strong base and its institutions. We'll see (hopefully).

98% LGM, 91% JL, 90% KL. Not surprising.

Anyway I have a really bad feeling, all anecdotal reports so far have been bad. I think almost certainly that the right will at the very least become bigger than the center left this time. Meanwhile, here's my case for why Netanyahu has to go and why I'm voting LGM:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=362330.msg7211556#new

The only thing worse than anecdotal reports are anecdotal reports before 10 in the morning. It is impossible to tell anything until actual turnout figures start to cone in from different places and the day goes on.

Yeah, I guess. But I'm stressed!

I'm freaking out, personally, but real data is usually better than hysteria. I just don't know why we haven't already gotten six Bibi videos hyperventilating about six Arabs spotted in Taybeh voting and a guy on an electric scooter on Frischman who said he is a Gantz man. The lack of hysteria is really unnerving.

Otoh I don't see any hysteria from KL yet either.

[Walmart_shopper]

According to Jack Khoury the Arab vote stands at 15%. No clue if that's as of 10 or as of 12, when he reported that figure. In any case if the 12pm Arab turnout is between 15 and 20 percent that would be a fairly solid indicator of a good night for the Joint List--assuming, of course, that overall turnout remains less than 23 or 24 percent as of 12.

[Walmart_shopper]

According to Jack Khoury the Arab vote stands at 15%. No clue if that's as of 10 or as of 12, when he reported that figure. In any case if the 12pm Arab turnout is between 15 and 20 percent that would be a fairly solid indicator of a good night for the Joint List--assuming, of course, that overall turnout remains less than 23 or 24 percent as of 12.

The 15% figure is indeed from a count as of 10-11am. If true that would, of course, be a very strong early number.

[Hnv1]

According to Jack Khoury the Arab vote stands at 15%. No clue if that's as of 10 or as of 12, when he reported that figure. In any case if the 12pm Arab turnout is between 15 and 20 percent that would be a fairly solid indicator of a good night for the Joint List--assuming, of course, that overall turnout remains less than 23 or 24 percent as of 12.

The 15% figure is indeed from a count as of 10-11am. If true that would, of course, be a very strong early number.

That would put them higher than average Jewish areas and on course to 16 seats. Highly doubt it

[danny]

27.6% turnout by 12:00, up from 26.8% in September and 24.8% in April.

[America Needs R'hllor]

27.6% turnout as of 12, the highest since 1999. I'm not sure if it's a good sign.

[Hnv1]

27.6% turnout by 12:00, up from 26.8% in September and 24.8% in April.

I’m hearing reports that both Arab and likud turnout on the rise. They might cancel each other.


My friend in corona isolation went on to vote in their special box. Said there’s a 3 hours line there and many went back home