Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #775 on: December 05, 2021, 05:23:52 PM »



lol.

Why would this be illegal?  He thinks there should be fourth Atlanta black seat? 

The current Republican plan draws a GA-13 that is almost 70% Black VAP; the same district was only 58% Black VAP in 2010.  There could be a VRA challenge to unpack the 13th and create another Black-performing seat in Metro Atlanta, which would mean a D+2 redraw if Republicans are too quick to concede GA-07.

Kemp can preempt this kind of VRA challenge by insisting on another Black-performing seat in Metro Atlanta that also conveniently serves to maximally pack Democrat votes.  Black Democrats representing Metro Atlanta in the legislature would happily trade additional Black representation over keeping GA-07 as a purely Gwinnett-based COI.

There was a map posted by the poster "reagente" a couple of pages back that illustrates the idea.  The following precincts are exactly 4 districts that can each be drawn to be >50% Black VAP.  The remaining northern suburban areas can be shuffled and split between 3 trend-proof seats for the GOP, maybe only 2 but I haven't tested it.

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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #776 on: December 30, 2021, 05:12:15 PM »

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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #777 on: December 30, 2021, 05:25:47 PM »

Both Cobb and DeKalb being the exact right size for a district is pretty cool.

Oklahoma County I believe is still the right size. El Paso County in CO was like that with 2019 estimates, but overshot them and needs a chunk taken out.
I wonder how the map will change in 2030. What do you expect then?

I feel like the 2030 GA redistricting will be pretty interesting insofar as 1) it’s fairly likely to be led by Democrats, 2) there could easily be another seat by then, and 3) Northern Atlanta could well be given both a Hispanic-opportunity and an Asian-opportunity district.

I think the GA Republicans will be smart enough to pass a redistricting commission amendment sometime mid-decade before they lose control, maybe in 2024.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #778 on: December 30, 2021, 07:36:35 PM »

Both Cobb and DeKalb being the exact right size for a district is pretty cool.

Oklahoma County I believe is still the right size. El Paso County in CO was like that with 2019 estimates, but overshot them and needs a chunk taken out.
I wonder how the map will change in 2030. What do you expect then?

I feel like the 2030 GA redistricting will be pretty interesting insofar as 1) it’s fairly likely to be led by Democrats, 2) there could easily be another seat by then, and 3) Northern Atlanta could well be given both a Hispanic-opportunity and an Asian-opportunity district.

I think the GA Republicans will be smart enough to pass a redistricting commission amendment sometime mid-decade before they lose control, maybe in 2024.

Constitutional amendments require a 2/3rds vote of the legislature in GA, so they would need Dem support for any commission proposal.  It also has to pass a statewide referendum, but that's basically a given for independent redistricting measures. 
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #779 on: January 09, 2022, 10:42:31 PM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3822acab-10f3-4f6f-b3fb-81473fbd306b
Drew a State House D gerrymander. I count roughly 60-65 State House seats likely to elect a Black candidate. There are only 74 Trump districts, but Kemp in 2018 won a majority of seats under this map. I sought to nest house districts within clusters of counties, and I had to add an additional HD in north Fulton county and southern Forsyth after I thought all the work was done. That's why all the districts in Fulton are relatively undersized.
Under this map, there would likely be zero Republicans representing Fulton County, only one in Gwinnett, and only two representing Cobb.
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #780 on: January 28, 2022, 02:08:12 PM »

Federal judge rejects request to dismiss 3 suits against Georgia maps. Hearings will begin February 7.

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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #781 on: January 28, 2022, 09:28:34 PM »



Technically you can create 6 semi-reasonble black VRA districts, though this would never happen for a variety of reasons nor is it the right thing to do.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #782 on: January 28, 2022, 09:54:18 PM »



Technically you can create 6 semi-reasonble black VRA districts, though this would never happen for a variety of reasons nor is it the right thing to do.

"Semi reasonable"
Literally struck down by SCOTUS
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #783 on: January 28, 2022, 09:57:59 PM »



Technically you can create 6 semi-reasonble black VRA districts, though this would never happen for a variety of reasons nor is it the right thing to do.

"Semi reasonable"
Literally struck down by SCOTUS
This is much more compact of a district though?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #784 on: January 28, 2022, 10:09:36 PM »



Technically you can create 6 semi-reasonble black VRA districts, though this would never happen for a variety of reasons nor is it the right thing to do.

"Semi reasonable"
Literally struck down by SCOTUS
This is much more compact of a district though?

It can stand for non racial reasons but don't claim you did it for race lol. It certainly isn't a VRA district.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #785 on: January 28, 2022, 10:12:09 PM »



Technically you can create 6 semi-reasonble black VRA districts, though this would never happen for a variety of reasons nor is it the right thing to do.

"Semi reasonable"
Literally struck down by SCOTUS
This is much more compact of a district though?

It can stand for non racial reasons but don't claim you did it for race lol.
That just means that existing jurispence would never oblige the creation of such a district on racial grounds, no?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #786 on: March 01, 2022, 01:47:29 AM »

https://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-news/in-depth-new-election-maps-look-to-secure-gop-seats-in-blue-cobb-county/NPRRGEOBXZBGXMBR7JUJYCHIYQ/

Gwinett/Cobb redistricting. Georgia GOP redraw the Dem gerrymanders/previous GOP dummymanders to be fair maps. Democrats scream VRA violations etc although obviously the GA GOP isn't really acting in good faith. Closest comparison I have are IL Dems redrawing the state supreme court. The end result is pretty fair but the reasoning wasn't.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #787 on: March 01, 2022, 09:58:50 AM »



Judge basically agrees with plaintiffs that there should be a fifth AA seat/Sixth minority seat in the state, based west of Atlanta, but that Kemp's delays and the Alabama Purcell order basically preclude work this cycle. To that end, there are other suits brought by different GA minority organizations, that did not ask for the PI, which are scheduled for late this year and next year.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #788 on: March 01, 2022, 10:17:39 AM »
« Edited: March 01, 2022, 10:23:58 AM by lfromnj »

Still not sure why they didn't sue when there is a D governor.  This basically seems useless until a D governor can veto a GOP proposal. Always a decent case for 4 black districts but never neccesary and considering 4 D sinks existed anyway the seats can be relatively easily converted.

From a non partisan perspective 2 forms of a fair Atlanta area exist with little partisan difference . You can either choose what Haley/Ryan did by focusing to preserve convenient county lines  or the other option is to increase black majority. representation  and create a true Atlanta district based around the urban corridor that straddles DeKalb/Fulton along with deciding to split Cobb County. Either map atleast by my design gets 5 safe D safe d seats and 1 trump kemp biden Loeffler district. Only partisan difference is if 2012 Obama wins 3 or 4 seats in Atlanta. 4 Atlanta black seats is a bit more tricky than based on original estimates due to Atlanta gentrification .
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #789 on: March 01, 2022, 10:27:17 AM »

Still not sure why they didn't sue when there is a D governor.  This basically seems useless until a D governor can veto a GOP proposal. Always a decent case for 4 black districts but never neccesary and considering 4 D sinks existed anyway the seats can be relatively easily converted.

From a non partisan perspective 2 forms of a fair Atlanta area exist with little partisan difference . You can either choose what Haley/Ryan did by focusing to preserve convenient county lines  or the other option is to increase black majority. representation  and create a true Atlanta district based around the urban corridor that straddles DeKalb/Fulton along with deciding to split Cobb County. Either map atleast by my design gets 5 safe D safe d seats and 1 trump kemp biden Loeffler district. Only partisan difference is if 2012 Obama wins 3 or 4 seats in Atlanta. 4 Atlanta black seats is a bit more tricky than based on original estimates due to Atlanta gentrification .

Doesn't the Purcell stuff mean any court order to redraw is punted to 2023 anyway?  The Dem-aligned interest groups backing the suit are presumably optimistic about winning the governorship in 2022.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #790 on: March 01, 2022, 10:29:58 AM »

Still not sure why they didn't sue when there is a D governor.  This basically seems useless until a D governor can veto a GOP proposal. Always a decent case for 4 black districts but never neccesary and considering 4 D sinks existed anyway the seats can be relatively easily converted.

From a non partisan perspective 2 forms of a fair Atlanta area exist with little partisan difference . You can either choose what Haley/Ryan did by focusing to preserve convenient county lines  or the other option is to increase black majority. representation  and create a true Atlanta district based around the urban corridor that straddles DeKalb/Fulton along with deciding to split Cobb County. Either map atleast by my design gets 5 safe D safe d seats and 1 trump kemp biden Loeffler district. Only partisan difference is if 2012 Obama wins 3 or 4 seats in Atlanta. 4 Atlanta black seats is a bit more tricky than based on original estimates due to Atlanta gentrification .

Doesn't the Purcell stuff mean any court order to redraw is punted to 2023 anyway?  The Dem-aligned interest groups backing the suit are presumably optimistic about winning the governorship in 2022.

That was always true but one could literally sue in November depending on who wins the election. Purcell wouldn't apply at all if the case was done by mid 23 atleast at the local level.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #791 on: March 01, 2022, 12:31:59 PM »
« Edited: March 01, 2022, 12:37:00 PM by lfromnj »

https://www.gpb.org/news/2022/02/28/federal-judge-decide-whether-delay-qualifying-for-georgia-psc-seat

Yeah based on both lawsuits there definitely seem to be some relatively "rogue" African American lawsuits which I imagine GA Democrats do not support.(Considering how Georgia Democrats are majority black this isn't similar to say 1990's lawsuits by the NAACP and white Southern Democrats)
Quote
A U.S. District Court judge is set to decide over the next week whether candidates qualifying for a Georgia Public Service Commission race must wait until after a summer trial for a lawsuit claiming the process of electing utility regulators has largely kept Black people from winning a seat.

Northern District of Georgia Judge Steven Grimberg was asked on Friday to issue a temporary injunction for the March 7-11 qualifying on behalf of four Black Fulton County voters who want elections moved to district-only and for at least one predominantly Black district to be created. In this year’s election, the only PSC seat up for election is District 2, now held by Republican Tim Echols from Hoschton.

The GA PSC is really weird in that there are districts but elections are done statewide, members usually are supposed to advocate for their region? Not sure why. Either way the lawsuit wants the PSC to be moved to district elections. GA has 5 districts so they are only asking for 1 majority black seat. Coincidentally the 3 most D counties by net votes(Clayton/Dekalb/Fulton) are almost exactly the size of a district anyway. This is an extremely idiotic lawsuit from a partisan perspective for obvious reasons.
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patzer
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« Reply #792 on: March 01, 2022, 01:02:37 PM »

Still not sure why they didn't sue when there is a D governor.  This basically seems useless until a D governor can veto a GOP proposal. Always a decent case for 4 black districts but never neccesary and considering 4 D sinks existed anyway the seats can be relatively easily converted.

From a non partisan perspective 2 forms of a fair Atlanta area exist with little partisan difference . You can either choose what Haley/Ryan did by focusing to preserve convenient county lines  or the other option is to increase black majority. representation  and create a true Atlanta district based around the urban corridor that straddles DeKalb/Fulton along with deciding to split Cobb County. Either map atleast by my design gets 5 safe D safe d seats and 1 trump kemp biden Loeffler district. Only partisan difference is if 2012 Obama wins 3 or 4 seats in Atlanta. 4 Atlanta black seats is a bit more tricky than based on original estimates due to Atlanta gentrification .

Not too hard to make 5 black plurality seats in the Atlanta area. Here's a quick attempt from me, based on the new congressional map. All I really did was unpacking the 13th and moving a few other districts around a bit to fit. https://davesredistricting.org/join/5779c392-23da-47a0-9dd8-2db0b8f7f893

4th: 55% black, 26% white
5th: 53% black, 36% white
7th: 33% black, 28% white, 25% Hispanic
11th: 47% black, 35% white
13th: 54% black, 32% white

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lfromnj
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« Reply #793 on: March 25, 2022, 10:26:54 PM »

The wisconsin case should render the Georgia legislature case moot.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #794 on: March 25, 2022, 11:46:48 PM »

Assuming GA continues to trend and swing Dem, what's the chance that Ds pick up the legislature anyway by 2026?
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #795 on: March 26, 2022, 10:06:25 AM »

Assuming GA continues to trend and swing Dem, what's the chance that Ds pick up the legislature anyway by 2026?

Hardly any chance with the districts rigged.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #796 on: May 09, 2022, 11:21:21 AM »

A map for GA: https://districtr.org/plan/128717. I was able to create a district (GA1) perfectly tied between Clinton and Trump by running it along the GA side of the Savannah River, with Augusta at the north and Savannah at the south. My guess is that this'd be an Obama-Obama-TIED-Biden district.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #797 on: May 16, 2022, 07:54:30 PM »
« Edited: August 25, 2022, 08:23:29 PM by CentristRepublican »

https://districtr.org/plan/129625

Quirky map with high deviation I carved out for GA. One of the few decent things about it is district lines follow natural boundaries (i.e. rivers) in Southern GA. All percentages below are of the 3 way vote (Democratic+Republican+Libertarian) for the 2016 presidential race.

GA01: In southern GA. Heavily Republican; went for Trump 67.49-30.59%.
GA02: Similar to the real life 1st district inthat it includes Savannah. Its border follows the Altamaha River's natural course. Red by a comfortable but not overwhelming margin: went for Trump 54.58-42.76%. Is not black-majority, black-plurality or even black-opportunity since the black population is just 39%.
GA03: Similar to the real life 2nd district, but a lot redder, as it doesn't stretch out to include Macon, but instead includes rural land along the FL-GA border (including Thomasville). Trump's margin was decent but hardly overwhelming: 52.26-45.65%.
GA04: Really weird district that stretches down from Northeast GA (including Rabun County) to take in Athens' suburbs and the city of Macon. Macon keeps the margin down, but it's still quite solidly red. Trump won here 61.18-36.25%.
GA05: In northern GA; is basically a mix of the real-life 9th and 14th districts. Overwhelmingly red and by far the reddest seat in the state. While Trump didn't manage as much as 68% in any one of the other 13 districts, he won by a massive 78.25-18.83% margin out here, making this one of the most deeply Republican seats in the nation.
GA06: Along the GA-SC border. Includes Augusta and its suburbs, as well as Athens. Borderline competitive, but has an obvious GOP tilt - Trump won here 51.45-45.71%.
GA07: The first Atlantan seat, this district includes part of the heart of Atlanta and takes in the southern part of Fulton County, but it also stretches south and west. Part of it lies on the AL-GA border. It's got a very high black population and is definitely a black opportunity district. The margins here are comfortable for the Democrats - Clinton fell just shy of a 20 point margin (58.4-38.6%). Biden doubtless broke 60% here in 2020.
GA08: Includes the entirety of one of the two counties that's more than 80% Democratic, Clayton County. However, the rest of the district is fairly right-leaning. The district is plurality black and very racially polarized. Clinton won here by single digits (53.09% to 44.75%) but given the trends in the Atlanta metro area, it's safe to guess Biden won by north of 15 points in 2020.
GA09: Similar to Loudermilk's seat inthat it's a red seat in the outer suburbs and exurbs of Atlanta, but instead of being more northwest of Atlanta, it's more northeast. Trump won 65.69% to Clinton's 30.21%. My guess would be Biden crossed 35% or came close to it, while Trump did not manage 65%, in 2020.
GA10: Includes the more Democratic half of Gwinnett County (with the other half in the 9th), including Lawrenceville. It also includes a bit of Fulton County's Buckhead area (including Johns Creek) and about half of exurban Walton County. Went for Clinton by a somewhat narrow margin - 52.06-44.39% - but I'd guess Biden won over 55% of the vote and got a 15 point margin or higher.
GA11: Southern DeKalb County as well as land to its south. Bluest and blackest district in the entire state and by a lot for both. The only majority-black district in the state (over 62% black) and very blue. Clinton got 78.31% to Trump's 19.38%. In 2020, Biden most likely broke 80% in the district, and Trump won like 17% or 18% if even that much.
GA12: Includes all of heavily red and exurban Cherokee County, plus Fulton County's Buckhead region (and a tiny part of east-central Fulton County), a sliver of western Gwinnett County, and much of northern DeKalb County. Trump won here by 6.4% (50.85-44.45%), but I'd be surprised if Biden didn't flip the district in 2020.
GA13: Includes most of Cobb County (leaves out its southernmost tier) and small chunks of Fulton. Narrowly broke for Trump, giving him a 49.75% plurality (Clinton got 45.5%). I'd guess Biden won this seat and by over 5 points.
GA14: Drawn initially as an anti-MTG gerrymander, this includes MTG's hometown of Rome, and some ultrared areas in northwestern GA, but an arm stretches out east to take in Douglasville, southern Cobb County (very blue) and a large part of western Fulton County. It went for Clinton 54.95-42.21%, and I would guess Biden won by 20-25 points in 2020.
























EDIT: I wanted to share/preserve a (if I may say so myself) powerful/potent D gerrymander for GA here, but I didn't want to bump up such an old thread just to do so (that would be attention-seeking). So I've edited this post and included it here:  https://districtr.org/plan/139113. Deviation is kind of high, I suppose, but I'm still proud of this map. In not one district did Hillary Clinton manage even 60% of the vote - Joe Biden presumably managed it in quite a few; there are a handful of Atlanta-area districts which gave Clinton 55-59% of the vote. But she won 9 districts. The 1st only voted for her by about* 5 points though, and it's in the southwest of the state and somewhat rural and very racially polarised - so trends aren't too great and in a red wave, unless it has a STRONG INCUMBENT like Sanford Bishop, it could plausibly flip red. The 4th voted for Clinton by about* 8 and appears to have neutral-to-slightly-positive trends for the Democrats - it includes all of Richmond County (Augusta) and then stretches down along the GA-SC border to pick up parts of the GA coast, including all of Savannah. The Savannah coastal area has positive enough trends for the Democrats, but the Augusta area's trends weren't great for Democrats. In a red wave, it could flip, admittedly. Then there's the 5th, which has very good trends for the Democrats and which was about* Clinton+17. It includes select portions of Gwinnett and DeKalb Counties. Has a notably high Hispanic population. The 6th is the 5th's western neighbour and has a much higher black population - majority-black, unlike the 5th, which is less than 30% black. It's much more racially polarised and includes all of ruby-red Forsyth County - but then it also stretches down to take in parts of Fulton, and a large western section of ultra-blue and very African-American DeKalb. The 6th is quite blue, supporting Clinton by approximately* 15 points. Trends are obviously bad for the GOP, with Forsyth, red as it is, zooming leftwards (it gave Romney over 80% in 2012; in 2016, Trump was in the mid-sixties). The 7th is the blackest district in the entire state and kind of rural and large for a 'suburban' seat. South of Atlanta and very racially polarised. Voted for Clinton by close to* 20 points, it appears, so Safe D. The 8th includes all of Clayton County, which is extremely blue, as well as southeastern Fulton County, which is nearly as blue, but expands west to take in red western exurbs of Atlanta. Nearly 50% black; is plurality black. Voted for Clinton by around* 20 and is Safe D. The 9th includes a sizeable section of Fulton County's southern half, including part of Atlanta, but takes up a large chunk of very Republican territory in Northwest GA (including Greene's turf and her hometown of Rome) along the border with AL. It went for Clinton by 13 points or so* and is Safe D. The 10th, just because on Districtr it appeared to so neatly meet the population requirements of a district, is coterminous with Cobb County. All of Cobb County is in the district, and all of the district is within Cobb County. Enough said. You want racial, historical or political stats about the district, it has its own extensive Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobb_County,_Georgia. The 11th includes northern Fulton County, including the notorious affluent suburb of Buckhead, and a southeastern chunk of the very Republican exurb/suburb of Cherokee County. Yet, it went for Clinton in 2016, albeit by only just 5 points. The 12th possibly voted for Biden in 2020, but in 2016, Trump won by about* 6 points or so. It includes a large part of Gwinnett County and all of college-town Athens (AKA Clarke County), but also rural, red counties. Beyond that, we have 4 ultra-red districts: the 2nd, in southern GA (it takes in all of GA's southern border), with Valdosta apparently its largest city; the 3rd, taking in swaths of nondescript and ambiguous 'leftover' rural land; the 13th, in eastern GA and including quite a few very red counties in northeastern GA; and the 14th, very similar to the IRL 14th (though MTG would thankfully be placed in the blue 9th district, so she'd have to carpetbag to run here) except it skips some semi-large cities in northwestern GA (such as MTG's Rome), and instead runs further east...it is nearly 80% Republican and by far the least competitive district in the state by all metrics.

*Districtr lists the 3-way (Clinton, Trump, Johnson) vote percentages.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #798 on: May 16, 2022, 08:09:28 PM »

https://districtr.org/plan/129625

Quirky map with high deviation I carved out for GA. One of the few decent things about it is district lines follow natural boundaries (i.e. rivers) in Southern GA. All percentages below are of the 3 way vote (Democratic+Republican+Libertarian) for the 2016 presidential race.

GA01: In southern GA. Heavily Republican; went for Trump 67.49-30.59%.
GA02: Similar to the real life 1st district inthat it includes Savannah. Its border follows the Altamaha River's natural course. Red by a comfortable but not overwhelming margin: went for Trump 54.58-42.76%. Is not black-majority, black-plurality or even black-opportunity since the black population is just 39%.
GA03: Similar to the real life 2nd district, but a lot redder, as it doesn't stretch out to include Macon, but instead includes rural land along the FL-GA border (including Thomasville). Trump's margin was decent but hardly overwhelming: 52.26-45.65%.
GA04: Really weird district that stretches down from Northeast GA (including Rabun County) to take in Athens' suburbs and the city of Macon. Macon keeps the margin down, but it's still quite solidly red. Trump won here 61.18-36.25%.
GA05: In northern GA; is basically a mix of the real-life 9th and 14th districts. Overwhelmingly red and by far the reddest seat in the state. While Trump didn't manage as much as 68% in any one of the other 13 districts, he won by a massive 78.25-18.83% margin out here, making this one of the most deeply Republican seats in the nation.
GA06: Along the GA-SC border. Includes Augusta and its suburbs, as well as Athens. Borderline competitive, but has an obvious GOP tilt - Trump won here 51.45-45.71%.
GA07: The first Atlantan seat, this district includes part of the heart of Atlanta and takes in the southern part of Fulton County, but it also stretches south and west. Part of it lies on the AL-GA border. It's got a very high black population and is definitely a black opportunity district. The margins here are comfortable for the Democrats - Clinton fell just shy of a 20 point margin (58.4-38.6%). Biden doubtless broke 60% here in 2020.
GA08: Includes the entirety of one of the two counties that's more than 80% Democratic, Clayton County. However, the rest of the district is fairly right-leaning. The district is plurality black and very racially polarized. Clinton won here by single digits (53.09% to 44.75%) but given the trends in the Atlanta metro area, it's safe to guess Biden won by north of 15 points in 2020.
GA09: Similar to Loudermilk's seat inthat it's a red seat in the outer suburbs and exurbs of Atlanta, but instead of being more northwest of Atlanta, it's more northeast. Trump won 65.69% to Clinton's 30.21%. My guess would be Biden crossed 35% or came close to it, while Trump did not manage 65%, in 2020.
GA10: Includes the more Democratic half of Gwinnett County (with the other half in the 9th), including Lawrenceville. It also includes a bit of Fulton County's Buckhead area (including Johns Creek) and about half of exurban Walton County. Went for Clinton by a somewhat narrow margin - 52.06-44.39% - but I'd guess Biden won over 55% of the vote and got a 15 point margin or higher.
GA11: Southern DeKalb County as well as land to its south. Bluest and blackest district in the entire state and by a lot for both. The only majority-black district in the state (over 62% black) and very blue. Clinton got 78.31% to Trump's 19.38%. In 2020, Biden most likely broke 80% in the district, and Trump won like 17% or 18% if even that much.
GA12: Includes all of heavily red and exurban Cherokee County, plus Fulton County's Buckhead region (and a tiny part of east-central Fulton County), a sliver of western Gwinnett County, and much of northern DeKalb County. Trump won here by 6.4% (50.85-44.45%), but I'd be surprised if Biden didn't flip the district in 2020.
GA13: Includes most of Cobb County (leaves out its southernmost tier) and small chunks of Fulton. Narrowly broke for Trump, giving him a 49.75% plurality (Clinton got 45.5%). I'd guess Biden won this seat and by over 5 points.
GA14: Drawn initially as an anti-MTG gerrymander, this includes MTG's hometown of Rome, and some ultrared areas in northwestern GA, but an arm stretches out east to take in Douglasville, southern Cobb County (very blue) and a large part of western Fulton County. It went for Clinton 54.95-42.21%, and I would guess Biden won by 20-25 points in 2020.


What is the goal of this map? It's not really that effective of a gerrymander either way
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #799 on: May 16, 2022, 08:36:36 PM »

https://districtr.org/plan/129625

Quirky map with high deviation I carved out for GA. One of the few decent things about it is district lines follow natural boundaries (i.e. rivers) in Southern GA. All percentages below are of the 3 way vote (Democratic+Republican+Libertarian) for the 2016 presidential race.

GA01: In southern GA. Heavily Republican; went for Trump 67.49-30.59%.
GA02: Similar to the real life 1st district inthat it includes Savannah. Its border follows the Altamaha River's natural course. Red by a comfortable but not overwhelming margin: went for Trump 54.58-42.76%. Is not black-majority, black-plurality or even black-opportunity since the black population is just 39%.
GA03: Similar to the real life 2nd district, but a lot redder, as it doesn't stretch out to include Macon, but instead includes rural land along the FL-GA border (including Thomasville). Trump's margin was decent but hardly overwhelming: 52.26-45.65%.
GA04: Really weird district that stretches down from Northeast GA (including Rabun County) to take in Athens' suburbs and the city of Macon. Macon keeps the margin down, but it's still quite solidly red. Trump won here 61.18-36.25%.
GA05: In northern GA; is basically a mix of the real-life 9th and 14th districts. Overwhelmingly red and by far the reddest seat in the state. While Trump didn't manage as much as 68% in any one of the other 13 districts, he won by a massive 78.25-18.83% margin out here, making this one of the most deeply Republican seats in the nation.
GA06: Along the GA-SC border. Includes Augusta and its suburbs, as well as Athens. Borderline competitive, but has an obvious GOP tilt - Trump won here 51.45-45.71%.
GA07: The first Atlantan seat, this district includes part of the heart of Atlanta and takes in the southern part of Fulton County, but it also stretches south and west. Part of it lies on the AL-GA border. It's got a very high black population and is definitely a black opportunity district. The margins here are comfortable for the Democrats - Clinton fell just shy of a 20 point margin (58.4-38.6%). Biden doubtless broke 60% here in 2020.
GA08: Includes the entirety of one of the two counties that's more than 80% Democratic, Clayton County. However, the rest of the district is fairly right-leaning. The district is plurality black and very racially polarized. Clinton won here by single digits (53.09% to 44.75%) but given the trends in the Atlanta metro area, it's safe to guess Biden won by north of 15 points in 2020.
GA09: Similar to Loudermilk's seat inthat it's a red seat in the outer suburbs and exurbs of Atlanta, but instead of being more northwest of Atlanta, it's more northeast. Trump won 65.69% to Clinton's 30.21%. My guess would be Biden crossed 35% or came close to it, while Trump did not manage 65%, in 2020.
GA10: Includes the more Democratic half of Gwinnett County (with the other half in the 9th), including Lawrenceville. It also includes a bit of Fulton County's Buckhead area (including Johns Creek) and about half of exurban Walton County. Went for Clinton by a somewhat narrow margin - 52.06-44.39% - but I'd guess Biden won over 55% of the vote and got a 15 point margin or higher.
GA11: Southern DeKalb County as well as land to its south. Bluest and blackest district in the entire state and by a lot for both. The only majority-black district in the state (over 62% black) and very blue. Clinton got 78.31% to Trump's 19.38%. In 2020, Biden most likely broke 80% in the district, and Trump won like 17% or 18% if even that much.
GA12: Includes all of heavily red and exurban Cherokee County, plus Fulton County's Buckhead region (and a tiny part of east-central Fulton County), a sliver of western Gwinnett County, and much of northern DeKalb County. Trump won here by 6.4% (50.85-44.45%), but I'd be surprised if Biden didn't flip the district in 2020.
GA13: Includes most of Cobb County (leaves out its southernmost tier) and small chunks of Fulton. Narrowly broke for Trump, giving him a 49.75% plurality (Clinton got 45.5%). I'd guess Biden won this seat and by over 5 points.
GA14: Drawn initially as an anti-MTG gerrymander, this includes MTG's hometown of Rome, and some ultrared areas in northwestern GA, but an arm stretches out east to take in Douglasville, southern Cobb County (very blue) and a large part of western Fulton County. It went for Clinton 54.95-42.21%, and I would guess Biden won by 20-25 points in 2020.


What is the goal of this map? It's not really that effective of a gerrymander either way

It's just a weird map I drew. I guess you could say the goal is to have semi-competitive seats? I don't know.
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