Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Del Tachi]

Given how no one has drawn a white Dem district (is one even possible?); the number of Dem seats equals the number of black seats

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ff94e92e-dccf-4c8f-a4da-d883ec0e9b2f

Here's a map of five Safe/Likely D seats all based in Atlanta that include 3 VRA Black districts, a majority-White Dem district (59% Obama, 61% White), and a Maj-Min district based in Gwinnett.

COI's not very intact though.

[Del Tachi]

Given how no one has drawn a white Dem district (is one even possible?); the number of Dem seats equals the number of black seats

https://davesredistricting.org/join/22ba28a4-ad53-45e7-8546-7c8a5b8bf6d7

Here's a map of five Safe/Likely D seats all based in Atlanta that include 3 VRA Black districts, a majority-White Dem district (59% Obama, 61% White), and a Maj-Min district based in Gwinnett.

COI's not very intact though.

Can you check the URL? I’m getting a blank Georgia map.

Hmmm....might be server issues

[Del Tachi]

Given how no one has drawn a white Dem district (is one even possible?); the number of Dem seats equals the number of black seats

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ff94e92e-dccf-4c8f-a4da-d883ec0e9b2f

Here's a map of five Safe/Likely D seats all based in Atlanta that include 3 VRA Black districts, a majority-White Dem district (59% Obama, 61% White), and a Maj-Min district based in Gwinnett.

COI's not very intact though.

I guess that would be how a fair map would look like? (Plus GA-02 outside Atlanta in terms of Dem seats)

A "fair" map is probably 9-5 GOP with 4 Black districts (3 in Atlanta, 1 in SWGA) and the Gwinnett Maj-Min district.  I can't see a White Atlanta district being created.    For proportionality I think you need two Republican-leaning districts based in the North ATL suburbs, and a majority-White Dem seat in Atlanta pretty much precludes this.  While you can draw a majority-White Dem seat in Atlanta, you have to pick up a lot of currently Republican suburbs or majority-Black urban precincts to get it up to population - so White, liberal Atlantans aren't really numerous enough to demand their own district just yet.  The current GA-06 is probably shifted north and sheds some of its more Democratic precincts to the Maj-Min districts in ATL/Gwinnett.

I think a 10-4 has too much dummymander potential from having to crack fast-growing Atlanta suburbs too much, so the GA-GOP would do best to avoid that.  And, as has been discussed to death in this thread, a Black pack in SWGA shores up South Georgia and preempts a VRA challenge.   

[Del Tachi]

It's a foregone conclusion that the GOP packs the 6th and creates 4 solidly Democratic districts in Atlanta, while also cracking the remaining suburban territory among the northern seats. Really, the only points of contention are how messy the new Atlanta districts get, and the SWGA AA seat. Personally, I think splitting it is a bad bet for the GOP, as they could get taken to court for splitting the 'African-American community of interest' that the 2nd district serves. While they may create another AA/minority district in Cobb and Gwinnett, it doesn't change the fact that they're splitting up AA communities in the Southwest that logically should be in the same district. What they could do is make the 2nd more competitive, while keeping it a VRA district.

Exactly, a "good" map for the GOP starts as 9-5 but then moves to 10-4 by decade's end thanks to demographic turnover in SWGA.

[Del Tachi]

I think its only justifiable to chop Atlanta two ways - into (literal) Black and White.  Any more chopping is too much of a dilution of what is the state's clearest COI.  The GOP legislature/governor is obviously not going to favor White Atlanta being chopped-off to join any of the suburb-based districts, so Atlanta probably stays (at least nearly) whole.  9-5 is the "fairest" map I could see the GOP acquiescing to (3 ATL districts, 1 VRA district in SWGA, 1 Gwinnett-based majority-minority district).

[Del Tachi]

Here's five Democratic districts in Atlanta that has the same effects of Blairite's maps (3 Black VAP districts, a majority-White district, and a Gwinnett Maj-Min districts) that only splits Atlanta once along racial lines.

[Del Tachi]

Here's five Democratic districts in Atlanta that has the same effects of Blairite's maps (3 Black VAP districts, a majority-White district, and a Gwinnett Maj-Min districts) that only splits Atlanta once along racial lines.

That's probably a better map. I assumed it was better to split Atlanta than have multiple Cobb splits or a Fulton/De Kalb split, but the COIs are probably better respected there. Cobb still looks weird though.

Now that I revisit this map, I realize it's incredibly similar to the current district alignment in Metro ATL.  The current map is a Democratic gerrymander, so it seems.  No way anything like the current GA-06 survives 2021 redistricting.

[Del Tachi]

-SNIP-

Splitting Atlanta five ways is egregious, a good map would split Atlanta no more than once

[Del Tachi]

What software was used to make this map?

[Del Tachi]

How likely is it that a certain individual who shall not be named actually gets part of Cobb?

Very likely.  GA-14 can get unpacked and pickup Dem-voting parts of Cobb to further shore up the GA-07 and GA-06 redraws. 

[Del Tachi]

Here is my 2nd version of a 8-6 R map. Based on 2020 Prez numbers.

McBath and Bordeaux districts turn into safe D sinks.

GA-2 extends further east into the GA Black belt.

GA-9 & GA-10 switches places as Hice runs for the GA SOS against Rathensburger, thus the new GA-10 becomes a new open R seat in NE GA that takes in part of "Milton County"

GA-11 & GA-14 takes in part of the rapidly dem trending GOP areas of Cobb County. Trump won these two districts by massive 38.9% and 41.7% margins respectively.

They're 4 black majority seats.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1e3dc3ec-4da6-4556-929e-011a57a09a1a

This map should hold as well as the 2003-2013 gerrymander in CA did.

8-6 doesn't have to be conceded for the GA-GOP to get a relatively trend-proof map.  Most likely seat allocation is still 10-4, with Bishop's seat being preserved while the 3 ATL vote sinks get even more erose.

I'm still working on my 10-4 GOP map now that the 2020 Census numbers are out, but will be sharing it soon.

[Del Tachi]

Here's a 10-4 GOP map that maintains the current alignment in GA-02 while denying Democrats a seat in the Atlanta suburbs.  The weakest Republican district (GA-06) is only 43.5% Biden.





Things I like:  the partisan composition, GOP incumbents should be reasonably happy (except MTG); Republican-leaning GA-06 being a clear suburban COI, these iterations of GA-06, GA-08, GA-11 and GA-14 largely copy 2007-11 alignments   

Things I don't like:  Spirals in North GA, although these could be worse; GA-12 combining Valdosta with Augusta; GA-05 is plurality White

Would the GA-GOP be willing to go for something like this? 

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1463337674333466625

lol.

Why would this be illegal?  He thinks there should be fourth Atlanta black seat? 

The current Republican plan draws a GA-13 that is almost 70% Black VAP; the same district was only 58% Black VAP in 2010.  There could be a VRA challenge to unpack the 13th and create another Black-performing seat in Metro Atlanta, which would mean a D+2 redraw if Republicans are too quick to concede GA-07.

Kemp can preempt this kind of VRA challenge by insisting on another Black-performing seat in Metro Atlanta that also conveniently serves to maximally pack Democrat votes.  Black Democrats representing Metro Atlanta in the legislature would happily trade additional Black representation over keeping GA-07 as a purely Gwinnett-based COI.

There was a map posted by the poster "reagente" a couple of pages back that illustrates the idea.  The following precincts are exactly 4 districts that can each be drawn to be >50% Black VAP.  The remaining northern suburban areas can be shuffled and split between 3 trend-proof seats for the GOP, maybe only 2 but I haven't tested it.

[Del Tachi]

As far as the last point, NAACP essentially targets all 10 northern districts seemingly with the understanding that a remap will affect them all. They however structure their argument more on the county and Atlanta metro region structure, though have to cite districts for legal purposes. Their complaints against 3 and 10 basically just note how the districts are used to crack majority or plurality African American counties in the Metro. The same is true for 14 only with the additional point of how the district didn't go into Cobb previously and did this time to seemingly specifically grab majority-Minority precincts. They similarly don't go have specific issue or district claims against 5 and 7. There is however the understanding that their central position within the region means changes previously done by the State to pack and crack, such as with district 6 that is cited, and by any remap to unpack would naturally require both districts to shift via ripple effect.

If there argument is that cracking majority minority counties is illegal, as is a district going specifically to collect AA precincts-

Including all the majority minority counties in the Atlanta area together is almost enough for 6 districts, so you'd probably be looking at something like this as a map

What %Black is this GA-05?

[Del Tachi]

What is the reasoning of this case?  Isn't GA-13 already the least Black of the metro's VRA districts? 

[Del Tachi]

What is the reasoning of this case?  Isn't GA-13 already the least Black of the metro's VRA districts? 

No, it's 68% Black.

Hmm...per Wikipedia its only 57% Black, but I am seeing ~65% Black listed in some other data sources.

[Del Tachi]

This was easy enough to see coming:

The current Republican plan draws a GA-13 that is almost 70% Black VAP; the same district was only 58% Black VAP in 2010.  There could be a VRA challenge to unpack the 13th and create another Black-performing seat in Metro Atlanta, which would mean a D+2 redraw if Republicans are too quick to concede GA-07.

Kemp can preempt this kind of VRA challenge by insisting on another Black-performing seat in Metro Atlanta that also conveniently serves to maximally pack Democrat votes.  Black Democrats representing Metro Atlanta in the legislature would happily trade additional Black representation over keeping GA-07 as a purely Gwinnett-based COI.

There was a map posted by the poster "reagente" a couple of pages back that illustrates the idea.  The following precincts are exactly 4 districts that can each be drawn to be >50% Black VAP.  The remaining northern suburban areas can be shuffled and split between 3 trend-proof seats for the GOP, maybe only 2 but I haven't tested it.

[Del Tachi]

Good ruling. Good move by the GA-GOP.