2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Holmes]

I wish people would clarify which time zones they mean when they give a time.

[wbrocks67]

NBC/WSJ has been pretty silent. Haven't seen any Marist state polls, either. Last cycle they did many.

[JRP1994]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1268241598539849728

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/mikepnoble/status/1268751356296179714?s=21

[Landslide Lyndon]

Kos has announced that Civiqs is polling Iowa and will release the results on Tuesday or Wednesday.

[Tender Branson]

AZ will be Biden +7 and IA Biden +1.

[Jopow]

I've been analyzing polls and I've noticed a few things:

Biden's lead isn't as big as it is advertised, and in some states where Biden is polling above Trump, Trump is winning. Many polls do not weight Party ID correctly, which has to be done so there is correct sampling. Other polls oversample an urban area (more Democrat) and some do oversample rural areas. For example, Detroit was 16% of Michigan's 2016 votes, yet a poll sampled 49% from Detroit without proper weighting.

Another point I should bring up - don't look at national polls, because that is the popular vote, which Trump lost in 2016. It is not a good indication of who is winning.

Finally, I'd like to say that polls sampling Likely Voters are better indications of the 2020 race, because that includes those who are perhaps younger and are voting for the first time. Additionally, not all registered voters will vote.

[n1240]

I've been analyzing polls and I've noticed a few things:

Biden's lead isn't as big as it is advertised, and in some states where Biden is polling above Trump, Trump is winning. Many polls do not weight Party ID correctly, which has to be done so there is correct sampling. Other polls oversample an urban area (more Democrat) and some do oversample rural areas. For example, Detroit was 16% of Michigan's 2016 votes, yet a poll sampled 49% from Detroit without proper weighting.

Another point I should bring up - don't look at national polls, because that is the popular vote, which Trump lost in 2016. It is not a good indication of who is winning.

Finally, I'd like to say that polls sampling Likely Voters are better indications of the 2020 race, because that includes those who are perhaps younger and are voting for the first time. Additionally, not all registered voters will vote.

Assuming you're referring to this poll that has "49% from Detroit". There is a difference between media markets and cities, the Detroit media market made up 49.7% of the Michigan electorate in 2016, so it isn't unreasonable to have a poll that has the Detroit media market at 49% (pollsters wouldn't ever weigh by area anyways, it's just demographic information they include). Good pollsters won't weigh by party ID either given how fluid that metric is (literally ask anyone from 2012 how criticizing pollsters for "oversampling" Democrats worked).

[Jopow]

I've been analyzing polls and I've noticed a few things:

Biden's lead isn't as big as it is advertised, and in some states where Biden is polling above Trump, Trump is winning. Many polls do not weight Party ID correctly, which has to be done so there is correct sampling. Other polls oversample an urban area (more Democrat) and some do oversample rural areas. For example, Detroit was 16% of Michigan's 2016 votes, yet a poll sampled 49% from Detroit without proper weighting.

Another point I should bring up - don't look at national polls, because that is the popular vote, which Trump lost in 2016. It is not a good indication of who is winning.

Finally, I'd like to say that polls sampling Likely Voters are better indications of the 2020 race, because that includes those who are perhaps younger and are voting for the first time. Additionally, not all registered voters will vote.

Assuming you're referring to this poll that has "49% from Detroit". There is a difference between media markets and cities, the Detroit media market made up 49.7% of the Michigan electorate in 2016, so it isn't unreasonable to have a poll that has the Detroit media market at 49% (pollsters wouldn't ever weigh by area anyways, it's just demographic information they include). Good pollsters won't weigh by party ID either given how fluid that metric is (literally ask anyone from 2012 how criticizing pollsters for "oversampling" Democrats worked).

Yes, that poll, I must have missed the specifics....

[Progressive Pessimist]

Kos has announced that Civiqs is polling Iowa and will release the results on Tuesday or Wednesday.

I predict something around Trump+5. Civiqs tends to be fairly Republican friendly.

[pbrower2a]

I've been analyzing polls and I've noticed a few things:

Biden's lead isn't as big as it is advertised, and in some states where Biden is polling above Trump, Trump is winning. Many polls do not weight Party ID correctly, which has to be done so there is correct sampling. Other polls oversample an urban area (more Democrat) and some do oversample rural areas. For example, Detroit was 16% of Michigan's 2016 votes, yet a poll sampled 49% from Detroit without proper weighting.

Another point I should bring up - don't look at national polls, because that is the popular vote, which Trump lost in 2016. It is not a good indication of who is winning.

Finally, I'd like to say that polls sampling Likely Voters are better indications of the 2020 race, because that includes those who are perhaps younger and are voting for the first time. Additionally, not all registered voters will vote.

Beware the margin of error, typically 4%.

If you want to discuss 2016, then remember that polls are snapshots of what can be a changing reality. Donald Trump was able to win in part because he was able to make electoral politics seem to soil people not his supporters.

If you want to discuss 2020, then consider that Trump got away with much before February of this year that will not matter in voting in November. Guess what that means! COVID-19, high unemployment, and the President's bungled response to mass protests could be very different.

Polls from mid-May are likely to be irrelevant in November except as starting points for subsequent change in polling results.

Ordinarily it is political losers who say "the only poll that matters is the one from the ballot box". True -- but polling close to the time of the vote usually predicts that well.

As a rule I do not predict the likely direction of any polling. Polling will say far more than my prediction that either will be wrong or irrelevant. I expect stasis (look how stable the polling was for Trump until the middle of last month!) until that stasis disappears.

[Jopow]

I've been analyzing polls and I've noticed a few things:

Biden's lead isn't as big as it is advertised, and in some states where Biden is polling above Trump, Trump is winning. Many polls do not weight Party ID correctly, which has to be done so there is correct sampling. Other polls oversample an urban area (more Democrat) and some do oversample rural areas. For example, Detroit was 16% of Michigan's 2016 votes, yet a poll sampled 49% from Detroit without proper weighting.

Another point I should bring up - don't look at national polls, because that is the popular vote, which Trump lost in 2016. It is not a good indication of who is winning.

Finally, I'd like to say that polls sampling Likely Voters are better indications of the 2020 race, because that includes those who are perhaps younger and are voting for the first time. Additionally, not all registered voters will vote.

Beware the margin of error, typically 4%.

If you want to discuss 2016, then remember that polls are snapshots of what can be a changing reality. Donald Trump was able to win in part because he was able to make electoral politics seem to soil people not his supporters.

If you want to discuss 2020, then consider that Trump got away with much before February of this year that will not matter in voting in November. Guess what that means! COVID-19, high unemployment, and the President's bungled response to mass protests could be very different.

Polls from mid-May are likely to be irrelevant in November except as starting points for subsequent change in polling results.

Ordinarily it is political losers who say "the only poll that matters is the one from the ballot box". True -- but polling close to the time of the vote usually predicts that well.

As a rule I do not predict the likely direction of any polling. Polling will say far more than my prediction that either will be wrong or irrelevant. I expect stasis (look how stable the polling was for Trump until the middle of last month!) until that stasis disappears.

Very true. I think the protest response took them down and then the Trump odds rallied with the new jobs for May announced. It's been up and down the past couple months, and we haven't got to seeing Joe Biden much, which may change a few things.

[Landslide Lyndon]

LMAO! I'm sure the hacks at RCP will eagerly include it in their aggregate.

https://twitter.com/RobHerring/status/1270745585075642368

[wbrocks67]

OHPI really dragging out the release of their new AZ poll..

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1270834373626146817

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1270834373626146817

I'm glad that the campaign is doing their part to inspire hope while also trying to prevent complacency.

Also, side note: I was way off with my Civiqs prediction for their Iowa poll.

[Tender Branson]

New AR TalkBusiness/Hendrix College poll coming this weekend.

[Tender Branson]

New AR TalkBusiness/Hendrix College poll coming this weekend.

I guess this is the first AR poll for the 2020 election ...

My guess:

54-37-2 Trump/Biden/Others

[Gass3268]

Iowa Poll!

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1271442599774167042?s=20

[Tender Branson]

Iowa Poll!

Biden +1

[GeorgiaModerate]

Iowa Poll!

Biden +1

Their last one was Trump+10, so that would be quite a jump.

[Tender Branson]

Iowa Poll!

Biden +1

Their last one was Trump+10, so that would be quite a jump.

It’s going to happen, mark my words !

+/- 2%

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm gonna go Trump +3. If their last poll was Trump +10, I wouldn't be surprised by a 7% swing

[Jopow]

Iowa Poll!

Biden +1

Their last one was Trump+10, so that would be quite a jump.

Where is the PDF for that poll? Can't find it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Iowa Poll!

Biden +1

Their last one was Trump+10, so that would be quite a jump.

Where is the PDF for that poll? Can't find it.

Scroll to the bottom of https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/11/trump-approval-favorable-ratings-break-even-iowa-poll/5000775002/.  It was Trump 51, Biden 41.