Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think the Rs main problem in WI (which is partially revealed by this election) is that Ds continue to make gains while Rs lose ground in WOW. The WOW counties used to be (and still are) some of the biggest vote netters for the GOP, but they just are less powerful.

The GOP needs to continue to make further gains in rural areas faster than they have these past few years.

Is Wisconsin a reverse Florida?

Probably not. Ds still have a poor geographic distribution that will be hard to overcome when it comes to the state legistlature, even on fairer maps, plus Rs have a pretty substantial rural base. Only way I could see WI going "woke" would be if rural WI becomes dominated by liberal transplant type communities we see up in Ashland and Bayfield Counties.

Long term depends upon how much Madison grows. If Madison metro becomes like 1/6th of WI's population, that'd be very hard for the GOP to overcome.

[Holmes]

Im doing a swing map and Milwaukee stands out...any idea why Janet didn't really overperform there even though she is doing so massively like everywhere else?

I don’t think absentees have been counted?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the Rs main problem in WI (which is partially revealed by this election) is that Ds continue to make gains while Rs lose ground in WOW. The WOW counties used to be (and still are) some of the biggest vote netters for the GOP, but they just are less powerful.

The GOP needs to continue to make further gains in rural areas faster than they have these past few years.

Is Wisconsin a reverse Florida?

Probably not. Ds still have a poor geographic distribution that will be hard to overcome when it comes to the state legistlature, even on fairer maps, plus Rs have a pretty substantial rural base. Only way I could see WI going "woke" would be if rural WI becomes dominated by liberal transplant type communities we see up in Ashland and Bayfield Counties.

Long term depends upon how much Madison grows. If Madison metro becomes like 1/6th of WI's population, that'd be very hard for the GOP to overcome.

Fair point, but I was talking more about the impact that transplants have on a place in moving it one end or another. I wasn't thinking in terms of state legislature.

[Pres Mike]

I want the Bush coalition back . The coalition where we didn’t need to win WI/MI/PA to get to 270 .

Name a more Republican thing than finding a way to ignore voters once they vote against you.

Every race in a semi-close state in which abortion is perceived to be on a ballot is a near-guaranteed loss for republicans.

Abortion is a net vote winner for Ds. And yeah, the existence of a law passed by the Wisconsin legislature in 1849 is now costing Rs hundreds of years later.
Well, reality is what it is. Rs will have to try to change it.

While I don't think pro-life laws are a lost cause long term (or even short term in the South), it's clear that the midterm/off year electorate is reacting to Dobbs as if Republicans controlled the federal government and just passed major controversial right wing legislation, despite the president and congress at the time being Democratic.

Democrats have finally reconized that the federal government has had almsot no role in the abortion debate for the last 50 years. Even during Roe, it was handled at the state level. Democrats ignored the state level in the Obama years. It took Trump winning and Mitch stealing a Supreme Court seat for Democrats to wake up and realize having their guy in the Oval isn't enough

[ProgressiveModerate]

Im doing a swing map and Milwaukee stands out...any idea why Janet didn't really overperform there even though she is doing so massively like everywhere else?

Black turnout is lower than white turnout? A big theme in 2022 was many counties with black communities swinging right due to lopsided turnout dynamics.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It’s really funny that all this Democratic winning is happening when President Biden’s approvals are in the low 40s. Trump has really done a number on the GOP coalition in off year/special elections.

It's not necessarily Trump. There are likely a lot of futher left Democrats who disapprove of Biden but would still vote for him and the Democratic Party.

I think there just aren't a lot of swing voters right now.

I've been saying this ad nauseum but while Biden and the Democratic Party, in a vacuum, may not be outrageously popular, when it comes time for them to be contrasted with an increasingly unhinged GOP with no self-awareness of that depravity, then Democrats succeed. That was the story of the 2022 midterms, and may very well be the story of this year's elections and maybe 2024 too. The GOP right now is simply not making themselves appear to be an attractive alternative to the status quo.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Imagine if all Democrats voted like Dane County; truly astonishing.

[Nyvin]

Im doing a swing map and Milwaukee stands out...any idea why Janet didn't really overperform there even though she is doing so massively like everywhere else?

Isn't the mail vote still coming in later?

[Duke of York]

BTW, please note that in the event Protasiewicz is successfully impeached, Evers would appoint a temporary replacement (and this individual would almost certainly be ideologically aligned with the liberals) and another election would be held for this seat next year.

That would be a blatantly stupid and partisan move that would almost certainly backfire.

[Sestak]

Im doing a swing map and Milwaukee stands out...any idea why Janet didn't really overperform there even though she is doing so massively like everywhere else?

I don’t think absentees have been counted?

City of Milwaukee absentees (as well as all of the City of Green Bay votes) are ALWAYS last.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think the Rs main problem in WI (which is partially revealed by this election) is that Ds continue to make gains while Rs lose ground in WOW. The WOW counties used to be (and still are) some of the biggest vote netters for the GOP, but they just are less powerful.

The GOP needs to continue to make further gains in rural areas faster than they have these past few years.

Is Wisconsin a reverse Florida?

Probably not. Ds still have a poor geographic distribution that will be hard to overcome when it comes to the state legistlature, even on fairer maps, plus Rs have a pretty substantial rural base. Only way I could see WI going "woke" would be if rural WI becomes dominated by liberal transplant type communities we see up in Ashland and Bayfield Counties.

Long term depends upon how much Madison grows. If Madison metro becomes like 1/6th of WI's population, that'd be very hard for the GOP to overcome.

Fair point, but I was talking more about the impact that transplants have on a place in moving it one end or another. I wasn't thinking in terms of state legislature.

Ah. I feel like WI is an interesting place because transplants, demographic change, and generational turnover def lean strongly D, but vote flippers are favorable to R (like there insane gains in rurals from 2012 to 2020). Which one of these wins out long term will be interesting.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

BTW, please note that in the event Protasiewicz is successfully impeached, Evers would appoint a temporary replacement (and this individual would almost certainly be ideologically aligned with the liberals) and another election would be held for this seat next year.

That would be a blatantly stupid and partisan move that would almost certainly backfire.

I would imagine that the margin Janet is winning by would discourage them.

[Gass3268]

City of Waukesha is basically tied

[Sestak]

Knodl up by 1. That should be everything from Washington, so just Milwaukee from here on in?

[Atlas Force]

City of Waukesha is basically tied

[Nyvin]

BTW, please note that in the event Protasiewicz is successfully impeached, Evers would appoint a temporary replacement (and this individual would almost certainly be ideologically aligned with the liberals) and another election would be held for this seat next year.

That would be a blatantly stupid and partisan move that would almost certainly backfire.

I would imagine that the margin Janet is winning by would discourage them.

Yeah, impeaching the liberals on the court seems like a losing tactic for WIGOP as long as Evers is governor for the time being.

Until they have a winning strategy on abortion, Supreme Court elections are probably not winnable for them at all.

[Stockdale for Veep]

This is why the US flipped the party colors. Dane knew!!!

[walleye26]

In SD 8, half of Richfield’s votes dropped. 75-25 R. There are still 4,000 votes left there, which should break 3,200-800 R. However, there are a couple wards in Brown Deer still out that are heavily D. This will be a nail biter.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the Rs main problem in WI (which is partially revealed by this election) is that Ds continue to make gains while Rs lose ground in WOW. The WOW counties used to be (and still are) some of the biggest vote netters for the GOP, but they just are less powerful.

The GOP needs to continue to make further gains in rural areas faster than they have these past few years.

Is Wisconsin a reverse Florida?

Probably not. Ds still have a poor geographic distribution that will be hard to overcome when it comes to the state legistlature, even on fairer maps, plus Rs have a pretty substantial rural base. Only way I could see WI going "woke" would be if rural WI becomes dominated by liberal transplant type communities we see up in Ashland and Bayfield Counties.

Long term depends upon how much Madison grows. If Madison metro becomes like 1/6th of WI's population, that'd be very hard for the GOP to overcome.

Fair point, but I was talking more about the impact that transplants have on a place in moving it one end or another. I wasn't thinking in terms of state legislature.

Ah. I feel like WI is an interesting place because transplants, demographic change, and generational turnover def lean strongly D, but vote flippers are favorable to R (like there insane gains in rurals from 2012 to 2020). Which one of these wins out long term will be interesting.

Agreed.
My instincts are moving slightly because of this. Perhaps the state is inching closer to Lean D than Tossup. But it's not too wise to extrapolate anything from a single election.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/status/1643432672729997315

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do we think Protocewictz carried SD-08?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I think the Rs main problem in WI (which is partially revealed by this election) is that Ds continue to make gains while Rs lose ground in WOW. The WOW counties used to be (and still are) some of the biggest vote netters for the GOP, but they just are less powerful.

The GOP needs to continue to make further gains in rural areas faster than they have these past few years.

Is Wisconsin a reverse Florida?

The Wisconsin Democratic Party is a reverse of the Florida Dems, I suppose.

[Stockdale for Veep]

So, the new maps will be ready in time to send Van Orden back to the Cipitol as an "innocent observer", right?

[It’s so Joever]

Do we think Protocewictz carried SD-08?

Probably.

[Yoda]

I want the Bush coalition back . The coalition where we didn’t need to win WI/MI/PA to get to 270 .

LOL that's long gone. VA, NM, NV, and CO are not coming back