Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think the Rs main problem in WI (which is partially revealed by this election) is that Ds continue to make gains while Rs lose ground in WOW. The WOW counties used to be (and still are) some of the biggest vote netters for the GOP, but they just are less powerful.

The GOP needs to continue to make further gains in rural areas faster than they have these past few years.

[Sestak]

In SD-8, village of Richfield in Washington County (population 12,000, approx 75-25 Trump) still hasn’t reported any votes. This will probably mean Jodi will lose the lead; that being said, she does have two wards in Ozaukee that could net her ~200 votes yet.

Buckle up.

There's also some Milwaukee County portion left, no?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

DDNN PROJECTION:

Janet Protasiewicz
607,397 +57.0%57.0%
Daniel Kelly
459,141 +43.0%43.0
Total reported
1,066,538

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

So just tuning into the NYT results now that it's over, it looks like Janet might carry WI-03 and WI-01?

[ajc0918]

In SD-8, village of Richfield in Washington County (population 12,000, approx 75-25 Trump) still hasn’t reported any votes. This will probably mean Jodi will lose the lead; that being said, she does have two wards in Ozaukee that could net her ~200 votes yet.

Buckle up.

There's also some Milwaukee County portion left, no?

I think there's enough for Dems to pick up SD8

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the Rs main problem in WI (which is partially revealed by this election) is that Ds continue to make gains while Rs lose ground in WOW. The WOW counties used to be (and still are) some of the biggest vote netters for the GOP, but they just are less powerful.

The GOP needs to continue to make further gains in rural areas faster than they have these past few years.

Is Wisconsin a reverse Florida?

[It’s so Joever]

DDNN PROJECTION:

Janet Protasiewicz
607,397 +57.0%57.0%
Daniel Kelly
459,141 +43.0%43.0
Total reported
1,066,538

Thank you for your important service.

[Lief 🗽]

It’s really funny that all this Democratic winning is happening when President Biden’s approvals are in the low 40s. Trump has really done a number on the GOP coalition in off year/special elections.

[Benjamin Frank]

Over 1 million votes counted.

Janet
Protasiewicz
56.9%
575,021

Daniel
Kelly
43.1%
435,787

[ProgressiveModerate]

I like how Dane County just casually nets more votes than Milwaukee County at this point despite being half the size and very white.

[Comrade Funk]

OSR worships a dude who obsesses over "wokeness", implements theocratic abortion laws, and bans books...and yet he's complaining about Trumpism hurting the brand. Cry me a river.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Damn she did well in Kenosha County too apparently. Prolly carried WI-01 as well.

[Yoda]

How soon before state and federal congressional maps are over turned?

Democrats could net four more congressional seats, making winning the house next year much easier.

And the Republican super majority would become 50-50.

Unfortunately this will probably be more than cancelled out by the radical NC supreme court allowing republicans to viciously gerrymander again. However, there is a decent chance Ohio is forced (and by forced I mean told to follow their own Constitution) to redraw their maps that will yield 7 dems and 8 republicans.

[Benjamin Frank]

It’s really funny that all this Democratic winning is happening when President Biden’s approvals are in the low 40s. Trump has really done a number on the GOP coalition in off year/special elections.

It's not necessarily Trump. There are likely a lot of futher left Democrats who disapprove of Biden but would still vote for him and the Democratic Party.

I think there just aren't a lot of swing voters right now.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Somewhere ElectionsGuy is fuming.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I like how Dane County just casually nets more votes than Milwaukee County at this point despite being half the size and very white.

Dane County really is a sight to behold.
It's to Ds in WI what Orange County was for Rs in CA from the 1950s to 1980s - a high-turnout area whose blowout margins powerfully deliver in close races.

[It’s so Joever]

Im doing a swing map and Milwaukee stands out...any idea why Janet didn't really overperform there even though she is doing so massively like everywhere else?

[cg41386]

The SD-08 percentage in went down to 82%.

[TML]

BTW, please note that in the event Protasiewicz is successfully impeached, Evers would appoint a temporary replacement (and this individual would almost certainly be ideologically aligned with the liberals) and another election would be held for this seat next year.

[Person Man]

OSR worships a dude who obsesses over "wokeness", implements theocratic abortion laws, and bans books...and yet he's complaining about Trumpism hurting the brand. Cry me a river.

That’s uhhh a bummer, man.

[Oryxslayer]

I want the Bush coalition back . The coalition where we didn’t need to win WI/MI/PA to get to 270 .

Name a more Republican thing than finding a way to ignore voters once they vote against you.

Every race in a semi-close state in which abortion is perceived to be on a ballot is a near-guaranteed loss for republicans.

Abortion is a net vote winner for Ds. And yeah, the existence of a law passed by the Wisconsin legislature in 1849 is now costing Rs hundreds of years later.
Well, reality is what it is. Rs will have to try to change it.

Let me asterisk that: Its a vote loser outside of the south and areas that have experienced significant migration from white southerners. The issue for the GOP today, comprared to the mentioned Bush coalition, is that while the Pres topline is roughly comparable between now and 20 years ago, the Republican coalition at all levels in our FPTP environment is much more southern. It's actually a solid majority southern. So that puts too much upwards pressure on the party specifically to not change course.

[Sestak]

The SD-08 percentage in went down to 82%.

stop the steal!

[walleye26]

The two Ozaukee county precincts just posted, and Jodi added 214 votes to her lead.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Ron Johnson's win looks very impressive now.

[Skill and Chance]

I want the Bush coalition back . The coalition where we didn’t need to win WI/MI/PA to get to 270 .

Name a more Republican thing than finding a way to ignore voters once they vote against you.

Every race in a semi-close state in which abortion is perceived to be on a ballot is a near-guaranteed loss for republicans.

Abortion is a net vote winner for Ds. And yeah, the existence of a law passed by the Wisconsin legislature in 1849 is now costing Rs hundreds of years later.
Well, reality is what it is. Rs will have to try to change it.

While I don't think pro-life laws are a lost cause long term (or even short term in the South), it's clear that the midterm/off year electorate is reacting to Dobbs as if Republicans controlled the federal government and just passed major controversial right wing legislation, despite the president and congress at the time being Democratic.