Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Progressive Pessimist]

This makes my day!

F*** you, Wisconsin GOP! Underestimate peoples' disgust for your party and your President at your own peril! People are willing to risk infection if it means that they can vote against you! Maybe your overestimated your own voters' will to vote for you. What a well-deserved embarrassment! Hopefully you don't try these shenanigans again.

Also, maybe we have Bernie Sanders to partially thank for this result as well. I take back ever being impatient about him not dropping out sooner.

Regardless, I especially love this because it may spare us some concern trolling about Democratic chances in this crucial state-"Wississippi" and all that. It will still require work to win this November, but Democrats should have an even better idea of how to win here, especially since it will not be taken for granted this time.

So yeah.....remember when I said the data I saw looked like a Karofsky win a day or 2 ago....I'll take my accolades now

You f***ing earned them!

[Progressive Pessimist]

And so once again Wisconsin gives a very liberal result in a special election.

Presidential Trumpist turnout is intense!

I know that I'm always pouring cold water on good news but Karofsky's win last year didn't mean jack-s*** for 2020.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/lawindsor/status/1432766974354931719

It's an Antifa deepfake!

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/jayweber3/status/1435589543353364483?s=21

And nothing of value was lost.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It seems as though the GOP is coalescing around Kleefisch.

I can see that. She gives me Sarah Palin/Kristi Noem vibes.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Micehls definitely makes this an easier haul for Evers to win re-election, but I am still not moving it out of the tossup category. Evers has been consistently unpopular and Wisconsin, for as much of a defining battleground state as it is, tends to have no qualms in electing people well to the right of where the state should be. It's the GOP's second easiest chance at a pickup, but they did still in some ways make that job harder on themselves.

And by the way, I just learned about why Trump didn't endorse Kleefisch, and I can't beleive that I am still being surprised at what a petty, narcisstic, sociopathic b**** he is! Really!? Because her daughter went to a dance with a non-election denying Justice's son? How far-removed and tenuous is he taking his grudges now?!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Micehls definitely makes this an easier haul for Evers to win re-election, but I am still not moving it out of the tossup category. Evers has been consistently unpopular and Wisconsin, for as much of a defining battleground state as it is, tends to have no qualms in electing people well to the right of where the state should be. It's the GOP's second easiest chance at a pickup, but they did still in some ways make that job harder on themselves.

And by the way, I just learned about why Trump didn't endorse Kleefisch, and I can't beleive that I am still being surprised at what a petty, narcisstic, sociopathic b**** he is! Really!? Because her daughter went to a dance with a non-election denying Justice's son? How far-removed and tenuous is he taking his grudges now?!

To me, Wisconsin has always felt like a much more delicate balancing act for Dems than MI or PA in which their base is more concentrated and defined. Both of the main Dem metros are pretty equally influential and Democrats really can't afford to collapse in smaller town/outright rural communities either whereas MI and PA are urban/suburban enough that even an absolute collapse with rural voters can be overridden without even needing that much of a NUT performance in the cities. This is already kinda true in PA where Dems are getting pretty close to rock bottom in some of the Appalachia rurals.

I think that's a good summation. Much like with Biden, a Democratic victory in Wisconsin now is going to require over-performances in Madison, Milwaukee, and the WOW counties if rural free-fall can't be offset. It's doable, but difficult.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Micehls definitely makes this an easier haul for Evers to win re-election, but I am still not moving it out of the tossup category. Evers has been consistently unpopular and Wisconsin, for as much of a defining battleground state as it is, tends to have no qualms in electing people well to the right of where the state should be. It's the GOP's second easiest chance at a pickup, but they did still in some ways make that job harder on themselves.

And by the way, I just learned about why Trump didn't endorse Kleefisch, and I can't beleive that I am still being surprised at what a petty, narcisstic, sociopathic b**** he is! Really!? Because her daughter went to a dance with a non-election denying Justice's son? How far-removed and tenuous is he taking his grudges now?!

Not true? Marquette has always had him above water IIRC, and Morning Consult had him down a few % I believe if that. That's not "unpopular"

I haven't seen any recent polling, I suppose. But last I remember he was underwater and had a reputation as not accomplishing a lot (though that might more be the fault of the Wisconsin legislature).

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tilt R -> Lean R.

We'll see what the next polls say. Again, it could be argued that she was actually taking more from Evers for whatever reason.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/tony4wi/status/1580616619474227201?s=46&t=eUfQHwaY22Auaf...

Hopefully it's an Akin-esque moment that can help deliver Evers a win. It sounds bad enough. I just don't know if I trust Wisconsin to respond that way to it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Glorious! It's amazing how much the three Obama-Trump-Biden states have redeemed themselves after their 2016 mistake!

[Progressive Pessimist]

It’s really funny that all this Democratic winning is happening when President Biden’s approvals are in the low 40s. Trump has really done a number on the GOP coalition in off year/special elections.

It's not necessarily Trump. There are likely a lot of futher left Democrats who disapprove of Biden but would still vote for him and the Democratic Party.

I think there just aren't a lot of swing voters right now.

I've been saying this ad nauseum but while Biden and the Democratic Party, in a vacuum, may not be outrageously popular, when it comes time for them to be contrasted with an increasingly unhinged GOP with no self-awareness of that depravity, then Democrats succeed. That was the story of the 2022 midterms, and may very well be the story of this year's elections and maybe 2024 too. The GOP right now is simply not making themselves appear to be an attractive alternative to the status quo.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't want to read too much into the results of a special election versus a presidential election too, but I do think that two trends are clear by now, between last night's election and the 2022 midterms:

1. The Dane County machine is real and powerful. Given how close elections often can be in Wisconsin, getting consistently large Democratic turnout in this county matters a lot.

2. Trends in WOW: while they still may be a long way from flipping Democratic, their continued trends towards the Democrats are chipping away at the margins Republicans used to get, and still need, to win statewide.

Those two things, along with just enough turnout in Milwaukee seems like all the Baldwin and Biden campaigns need to focus on to continue winning the state. There is a very clear blueprint now, and that's all still bad news for the Wisconsin GOP even if it isn't quite a sure-thing.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Dark Janet is queen!