Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Benjamin Frank]

The NDP got stomped in Quebec in 2019, but even after that wipeout there was still a small number of ridings that weren't necessarily total lost causes. Are they trying to get the ex-MPs to run again or otherwise looking like they'll make any sort of effort in them, or has the whole province outside of Boulerice's seat been written off for the foreseeable future?

Wiki has a list of all the candidates. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_of_the_44th_Canadian_federal_election

There are a few former M.Ps running for the NDP again in Quebec (and elsehwere)

[King of Kensington]

In Metro Vancouver, there's definitely been a Liberal shift that was not a 2015 fluke (Delta being a good example) and its voting patterns increasingly resemble the GTA.  Tories being pushed further out.  The NDP is holding its own in east side and inner suburban seats though where they've been traditionally been strong.

[mileslunn]

In Metro Vancouver, there's definitely been a Liberal shift that was not a 2015 fluke (Delta being a good example) and its voting patterns increasingly resemble the GTA.  Tories being pushed further out.  The NDP is holding its own in east side and inner suburban seats though where they've been traditionally been strong.

BC agree is moving left, but a lot could be high cost of living forcing many younger families who used to live closer to centre out to suburbs.  Also province historically was not that right wing.  Liberal antipathy to West and disastrous NDP rule of 90s I think pushed province rightward, but as those become distant memories starting to swing back.

Alberta I also think is swinging left too.  If this was 2001, Kenney would be solidly ahead even with all his mess ups so he is partly trailing due to incompetence, but also Alberta is not as right wing as once was.  Now yes Tories got 69% federally there, but that was more an anti-Trudeau vote then vote for Conservatives. 

Ontario is tougher to say as while Tories getting 44% like they did in 2011 seems unlikely, in 2004, I thought Harris' 45% in 1999 was no longer feasible so province maybe shifting left slightly but generally Tories have floor of 30% and ceiling of 45%, but perhaps ceiling now down to 40%.

Saskatchewan is swinging right however and Quebec maybe although I think their style of right of centre politics is quite distinct from rest of country so whether CAQ success is rightward shift or more simply there wasn't a party like them before, hard to say.  I think in Quebec, left vs. right matters less than rest of Canada.

Atlantic Canada hasn't swung left, just Tories have swung right thus why still can win provincially where like old PCs but not federally where too Reform like. 

Manitoba I think has seen more a stronger urban/rural polarization.  Even if NDP wins provincially in 2023, which they may very well, I don't see them winning back many of the lost rural ridings.  It will probably be by sweeping Winnipeg.

[Benjamin Frank]

In Metro Vancouver, there's definitely been a Liberal shift that was not a 2015 fluke (Delta being a good example) and its voting patterns increasingly resemble the GTA.  Tories being pushed further out.  The NDP is holding its own in east side and inner suburban seats though where they've been traditionally been strong.

"Inner suburbs" has a different connotation in the United States than in Canada.  In Canada it merely means 'older and more established', and doesn't have the connotation of poverty as it has in the United States.

In British Columbia the inner Vancouver suburbs are Burnaby, North Vancouver (District) and Richmond, all of which are distinctly middle class.  The only part of the Lower Mainland that is somewhat lower middle class is New Westminster, which used to be home to a lot of working class union types (and likely still is.)

New Westminster is undoubtedly gentrifying but they seem to want to keep a lot of the older developments as 'heritage.' Of course, the buildings are being used which can make 'renewal' more difficult, but parts of New Westminster do have something of a 'run down' look.  On the other hand, some probably consider that part of the charm.

Of course, because Vancouver is part of a peninsula, the only city that directly borders it is Burnaby.  Bridges connect Vancouver with Richmond and North Vancouver (District.) There is the seabus that connects Vancouver to North Vancouver (District) as well, as well as North Vancouver (Lonsdale) and West Vancouver.

Of course, if you are in West Vancouver and aren't worth at least $100 million, you can be immediately deported back to Vancouver. /s

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Looking at the candidate list, the Liberals are running a few potential Cabinet ministers:

- Pascale St-Onge, former leader of a media/cultural sector union in Quebec, running in Brome-Mississquoi. Potential replacement for Guilbeault in heritage given how the current heritage minister seems to struggle with comms
- Lise Kistabish, first nations leader from northern Quebec running in Abitibi-Baie James. Could have a shot at cabinet because she represents a relatively forgotten part of Quebec, and let's be frank, checks a lot of boxes
- Yasir Naqvi, former Ontario AG running in Ottawa Centre
- Michael Coteau, former Ontario minister and Ontario Liberal leadership candidate running in Don Valley East, of which he is currently MPP
- Sandra Pupatello, longtime Windsor Liberal who served in McGuinty's cabinet and ran for the leadership against Wynne, running in Windsor West. She ran in 2019 too but lost narrowly to the NDP. She's a more right-wing Liberal than what we're used to with Trudeau, but if elected, potential pick for cabinet, would be the first cabinet minister from the Windsor area since Herb Gray
- Buckley Belanger running in Saskatchewan's far north riding, current NDP MLA in the region. Don't know much about him, but he's a potential cabinet minister mostly because if he wins his seat, he's likely to be the only Grit from Sask
- Randy Boissonnault re-offering in Edmonton Centre after losing in 2019, given his prior experience as a parl sec and in Trudeau's caucus, he's probably the most likely Alberta cabinet minister if elected
- George Chahal, local councillor in northeast Calgary running for Calgary-Skyview. Should he win, he might be considered for cabinet because Trudeau seems to want to build inroads in Calgary
- Dr. Brendan Hanley, chief medical officer in the Yukon, Fauci of the far north. In the post-pandemic landscape, he might land a big job, especially since there hasn't been a minister from the Arctic since Tootoo

Lots of choices here, if the election goes the way polls (and evidently the Liberals) are projecting, Trudeau could reinforce his cabinet by replacing some of the weak links

[King of Kensington]

In Metro Vancouver, there's definitely been a Liberal shift that was not a 2015 fluke (Delta being a good example) and its voting patterns increasingly resemble the GTA.  Tories being pushed further out.  The NDP is holding its own in east side and inner suburban seats though where they've been traditionally been strong.

"Inner suburbs" has a different connotation in the United States than in Canada.  In Canada it merely means 'older and more established', and doesn't have the connotation of poverty as it has in the United States.

In British Columbia the inner Vancouver suburbs are Burnaby, North Vancouver (District) and Richmond, all of which are distinctly middle class.  The only part of the Lower Mainland that is somewhat lower middle class is New Westminster, which used to be home to a lot of working class union types (and likely still is.)

New Westminster is undoubtedly gentrifying but they seem to want to keep a lot of the older developments as 'heritage.' Of course, the buildings are being used which can make 'renewal' more difficult, but parts of New Westminster do have something of a 'run down' look.  On the other hand, some probably consider that part of the charm.

Of course, because Vancouver is part of a peninsula, the only city that directly borders it is Burnaby.  Bridges connect Vancouver with Richmond and North Vancouver (District.) There is the seabus that connects Vancouver to North Vancouver (District) as well, as well as North Vancouver (Lonsdale) and West Vancouver.

Of course, if you are in West Vancouver and aren't worth at least $100 million, you can be immediately deported back to Vancouver. /s

Haven't thought of it much, but Translink places Burnaby, New Westminster, the North Shore and Richmond in Zone 2 which seems to line up with "inner suburbs." 

Which suburbs would you say are more "416-like" and which are more "905-like"?

[Benjamin Frank]

1.I think some of these people could get into the cabinet right away because one that you mentioned is a former M.P and several others are former provincial cabinet ministers.

However, I think Justin Trudeau learned a lesson here. In 2015, a large number of the cabinet were newly elected M.Ps.  That was not entirely a surprise given that there was a regional balance issue with a good number of those M.P being from the Atlantic. However, including the 15 former M.Ps who were returned in 2015, there were 45 members with Parliamentary experience. Undoubtedly the biggest flop of all these newly elected M.Ps to cabinet was Finance Minister Bill Morneau.  He wasn't the first to be dropped, but he was a dud in a very senior position.

In contrast, in 2019, of the more than newly elected Liberal M.Ps, only two were appointed to cabinet: Anita Anand and Steven Gibeault.

I would not be surprised if some you mentioned and possibly  others get into cabinet, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were appointed to the positions that used to be junior ministers, while a few of the junior ministers get promoted to more senior roles (like Deb Schulte for instance.)

2.Buckley Belanger is a long time Saskatchewan MLA and cabinet minister.  He was first elected in 1995 as a provincial Liberal, but crossed to the NDP by the end of his first term.

Prior to getting elected he was an administrator and producer for the northern Saskatchewan television network, and was a mayor.

An interesting bit of election trivia here: the NDP MLA that he defeated in 1995, Fred Thompson, was elected with around 90% of the vote in 1991.

3.Northern New Democrats 'crossing the floor' to run for the Liberals are nothing new. In 2000, Northern Manitoba NDP M.P Rod Murphy crossed the floor to the Liberal Party (one of about five M.Ps who did, most of them P.C M.Ps in Quebec or Acadian ridings who were elected under P.C leader Jean Charest.)  

In Saskatchewan, prior to Buckley Belanger, NDP MLA and cabinet minister Joan Beatty ran for the Federal Liberals in this same riding.

[Continential]

What are some notable Tories and NDPers running if someone could make a list?

[mileslunn]

What are some notable Tories and NDPers running if someone could make a list?

Probably best to look at shadow cabinets for both but neither exactly have impressive list of people running.  Part of it could be few expect either to win.  I think with Tories probably strongest are more younger ambitious types who hope to run for leadership in future when things are more favourable for party.

[Benjamin Frank]

In Metro Vancouver, there's definitely been a Liberal shift that was not a 2015 fluke (Delta being a good example) and its voting patterns increasingly resemble the GTA.  Tories being pushed further out.  The NDP is holding its own in east side and inner suburban seats though where they've been traditionally been strong.

"Inner suburbs" has a different connotation in the United States than in Canada.  In Canada it merely means 'older and more established', and doesn't have the connotation of poverty as it has in the United States.

In British Columbia the inner Vancouver suburbs are Burnaby, North Vancouver (District) and Richmond, all of which are distinctly middle class.  The only part of the Lower Mainland that is somewhat lower middle class is New Westminster, which used to be home to a lot of working class union types (and likely still is.)

New Westminster is undoubtedly gentrifying but they seem to want to keep a lot of the older developments as 'heritage.' Of course, the buildings are being used which can make 'renewal' more difficult, but parts of New Westminster do have something of a 'run down' look.  On the other hand, some probably consider that part of the charm.

Of course, because Vancouver is part of a peninsula, the only city that directly borders it is Burnaby.  Bridges connect Vancouver with Richmond and North Vancouver (District.) There is the seabus that connects Vancouver to North Vancouver (District) as well, as well as North Vancouver (Lonsdale) and West Vancouver.

Of course, if you are in West Vancouver and aren't worth at least $100 million, you can be immediately deported back to Vancouver. /s

Haven't thought of it much, but Translink places Burnaby, New Westminster, the North Shore and Richmond in Zone 2 which seems to line up with "inner suburbs."  

Which suburbs would you say are more "416-like" and which are more "905-like"?

I wouldn't include New Westminster as an inner suburb simply because it isn't adjacent to the city of Vancouver, I certainly would include it as '416 like.'  I would include the tri cities area as well: Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam and Port Moody (along with the villages of Anmore and Belcarra.)

Delta is interesting because it's considered part of suburban Vancouver, but it's south of the Fraser River and is most accessible via the George Massey tunnel.

I would probably consider Delta, Surrey and the City of Langley as an area in-between the 416 part of Vancouver and the 905.

The '905' parts of Greater Vancouver south of the Fraser are Langley Township (which actually has a much larger population than the City of Langley), Abbotsford and Chilliwack, as well as Maple Ridge, Pitt Meadows and Mission.

the Northern parts I would include most of the District of North Vancouver, as well as places like Squamish and Whistler.  There are probably some smaller cities/towns there as well that I can't think of their names right now.  

Powell River/Sunshine Coast is interesting because it's kind of everywhere and nowhere all at once.  It's only accessible by ferry, but it's not all that far from Greater Vancouver (the North Shore), the Central Interior and Vancouver Island (central Vancouver Island - Nanaimo especially.)

[Benjamin Frank]

What are some notable Tories and NDPers running if someone could make a list?

He doesn't have a hope of winning in West Vancouver, but Avi Lewis is something of a mini-celebrity.  He's the grandson of former Federal NDP leader David Lewis and the son of former Ontario Provincial NDP leader Stephen Lewis.  He's also married to Naomi Klein and they did at least one documentary film together (The Take, good film.)

Avi Lewis was also a personality on MuchMusic back when they still showed music videos (he wasn't a V.J though.)

That said, he's running in a riding the NDP has never come close to winning federally before, and I'm not actually sure he's all that well known outside of Ontario.

[Continential]

What are some notable Tories and NDPers running if someone could make a list?

He doesn't have a hope of winning in West Vancouver, but Avi Lewis is something of a mini-celebrity.  He's the grandson of former Federal NDP leader David Lewis and the son of former Ontario Provincial NDP leader Stephen Lewis.  He's also married to Naomi Klein and they did at least one documentary film together (The Take, good film.)

Avi Lewis was also a personality on MuchMusic back when they still showed music videos (he wasn't a V.J though.)

That said, he's running in a riding the NDP has never come close to winning federally before, and I'm not actually sure he's all that well known outside of Ontario.

I think he might come in second depending on how big the Green implosion is and what is the state of the Greens during the campaign, and I doubt the Greens will be in a good state considering their financial troubles and the legal problems caused that resulted in the implosion.

[mileslunn]

What are some notable Tories and NDPers running if someone could make a list?

He doesn't have a hope of winning in West Vancouver, but Avi Lewis is something of a mini-celebrity.  He's the grandson of former Federal NDP leader David Lewis and the son of former Ontario Provincial NDP leader Stephen Lewis.  He's also married to Naomi Klein and they did at least one documentary film together (The Take, good film.)

Avi Lewis was also a personality on MuchMusic back when they still showed music videos (he wasn't a V.J though.)

That said, he's running in a riding the NDP has never come close to winning federally before, and I'm not actually sure he's all that well known outside of Ontario.

I think he might come in second depending on how big the Green implosion is and what is the state of the Greens during the campaign, and I doubt the Greens will be in a good state considering their financial troubles and the legal problems caused that resulted in the implosion.

I am guessing Tories come in second there.  West Vancouver is wealthiest municipality in Canada so while only 1/3 of riding, it will be a Tory-Liberal battle with NDP likely in single digits, especially with their wealth tax (which is popular in most of Canada, but probably not so much there as would hit many residents).

[King of Kensington]

Liberals have the advantage as they are competitive throughout the riding.  West Van is an NDP dead zone, while the rest of the riding is very anti-Tory. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Notable NDP candidates:
Lisa Roberts, Halifax (local MLA)
François Choquette, Drummond (former MP)
Brigitte Sansoucy, Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot (former MP)
Djaouida Sellah, Montarville (former MP)
Ève Péclet, Outremont (former MP)
Malcolm Allen, Hamilton Mountain (former MP)
Tracey Ramsey, Essex (former MP)
Cheryl Hardcastle, Windsor-Tecumseh (former MP)
Wayne Stetski, Kootenay-Columbia (former MP)
Avi Lewis, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Seat to Sky Country (documentary filmmaker)

Special mention: Alex McPhee, Cypress Hills-Grasslands (mapmaker)

The NDP is really lacking in star candidates this time around, unfortunately.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Special mention: Alex McPhee, Cypress Hills-Grasslands (mapmaker)

The NDP is really lacking in star candidates this time around, unfortunately.

The first sentence contradicts the last.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

What are some notable Tories and NDPers running if someone could make a list?

For Tories I'd say (not counting former MPs):
- Doug Currie, former Liberal MLA, interestingly, running for the CPC in Charlottetown
- Eddie Orrell, local PC MLA running in Sydney-Victoria, narrowly lost in 2019
- Jake Stewart, PC MLA and cabinet minister running in Miramichi-Grand Lake
- Mel Norton, former Saint John mayor running in Saint John
- Yves Levesque, former mayor of Trois-Rivieres running in...well, Trois-Rivieres. He ran in 2019 and came close
- Melissa Lantsman, Tory strategist/comms person and frequent TV talking head running in Thornhill.
- Leslyn Lewis, CPC leadership contender running in Haldimand-Norfolk.
- Helena Konanz, former tennis player who interestingly represented the US running in South Okanagan. Don't think I'd call her a star candidate though, maybe if she had represented Canada more recently, but representing the US in the 80s won't ring any bells
- Dave Hayer, former BC Liberal MLA running in Fleetwood-Port Kells

Yeah, I really stretched the definition of star candidate for the Tories by including MLAs, I only did that for the Liberals for the pretty notable ones like Naqvi and Pupatello. If we're using the same standard for Liberals, I'd have to add:

- Heath McDonald, PEI Liberal MLA running in Malpeque
- Jenica Atwin in Fredericton, notable because you know why
- Nathalie Rochefort, former PLQ MNA running in Becancour-Nicolet
- Nancy Drolet, former hockey player and Olympic silver running in Rosemont-Petite Patrie
- Jenna Sudds, Ottawa city councillor running in Kanata-Carleton
- Steve Black, former Timmins mayor running in Timmins-James Bay
- Ben Henderson, Edmonton councillor running in Edmonton-Mill Woods

Hatman already covered the NDP using a similar standard. The Liberals have way more (and bigger) star candidates than the Tories and the NDP, but this is to be expected when the Liberals are in power and don't seem to be on the way out.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Notable NDP candidates:
Lisa Roberts, Halifax (local MLA)
François Choquette, Drummond (former MP)
Brigitte Sansoucy, Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot (former MP)
Djaouida Sellah, Montarville (former MP)
Ève Péclet, Outremont (former MP)
Malcolm Allen, Hamilton Mountain (former MP)
Tracey Ramsey, Essex (former MP)
Cheryl Hardcastle, Windsor-Tecumseh (former MP)
Wayne Stetski, Kootenay-Columbia (former MP)
Avi Lewis, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Seat to Sky Country (documentary filmmaker)

Special mention: Alex McPhee, Cypress Hills-Grasslands (mapmaker)

The NDP is really lacking in star candidates this time around, unfortunately.

I'd also add Nima Machouf in Laurier-Ste Marie and Angela MacEwen in Ottawa Centre, because both are good fits for the riding on paper. Machouf is a well known QS-type, and MacEwen is a senior economist for CUPE, you couldn't have a more perfect fit for Ottawa Centre than that. But both are running against a popular national LPC, and well-known local candidates Guilbeault and Naqvi respectively, so they have very steep hills to climb.

[King of Kensington]

So no big names for the Tories in the GTA except for Melissa Lantsman in Thornhill (a seat that's already safe Conservative).  

Scheer was a terrible fit for Ontario, and yet O'Toole who checks a lot of the right boxes is poised to do no better and likely worse.  

[Continential]

https://twitter.com/CPC_HQ/status/1426242355422765056
The person who made this should be shot

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

So no big names for the Tories in the GTA except for Melissa Lantsman in Thornhill (a seat that's already safe Conservative).  

Scheer was a terrible fit for Ontario, and yet O'Toole who checks a lot of the right boxes is poised to do no better and likely worse.  

I imagine a lot of potential big names in the GTA are sitting it out because they don't see a realistic chance of winning a seat, and even less a chance of sitting in government.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://twitter.com/CPC_HQ/status/1426242355422765056
The person who made this should be shot

HAHAHAHAHAHA WHAT THE HELL DID I JUST WATCH

[mileslunn]

So no big names for the Tories in the GTA except for Melissa Lantsman in Thornhill (a seat that's already safe Conservative).  

Scheer was a terrible fit for Ontario, and yet O'Toole who checks a lot of the right boxes is poised to do no better and likely worse.  

I imagine a lot of potential big names in the GTA are sitting it out because they don't see a realistic chance of winning a seat, and even less a chance of sitting in government.

Agreed.  I think if party was leading in the polls, you would see them attract a lot more.  Ontario PCs had a much stronger roster as they were leading in polls two years up to election so many expected them to be next government.  Few expect Tories federally to win.

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/CPC_HQ/status/1426242355422765056
The person who made this should be shot

HAHAHAHAHAHA WHAT THE HELL DID I JUST WATCH

Party has horrible comms team.  People running campaign are right wing hacks he want to own Libs.  O'Toole actually himself on paper is pretty moderate and is making a huge mistake letting these people run things.  It won't work.  Only danger is O'Toole may ensure party remains out of power until 2029 instead of just 2025 as many will argue party lost for not being right wing enough so go even further right and lose 2025.  While things change, I think my idea of party being out of power for at least a decade seems very plausible.  Most in base are too dumb to know what it takes to win and no matter how many times, they lose they keep doubling down.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

So no big names for the Tories in the GTA except for Melissa Lantsman in Thornhill (a seat that's already safe Conservative).  

Scheer was a terrible fit for Ontario, and yet O'Toole who checks a lot of the right boxes is poised to do no better and likely worse.  

I imagine a lot of potential big names in the GTA are sitting it out because they don't see a realistic chance of winning a seat, and even less a chance of sitting in government.

Agreed.  I think if party was leading in the polls, you would see them attract a lot more.  Ontario PCs had a much stronger roster as they were leading in polls two years up to election so many expected them to be next government.  Few expect Tories federally to win.

The reverse of this can be seen with Ontario Liberals. The federal Liberal caucus from Ontario is absolutely stacked, and it seems like they'll add Naqvi and Couteau, the latter of whom is a sitting MPP. The provincial Liberals, meanwhile, are nominating a whole bunch of nobodies for the next election.