Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Continential]

Canada should not have reopened the border with the US. As an American, I think they should keep us out forever.

lol

[SnowLabrador]

Canada should not have reopened the border with the US. As an American, I think they should keep us out forever.

lol

Contrary to popular belief, I mean everything I say. The US is the last country on Earth where this will still be a problem.

[beesley]

Interesting that the NDP has chosen Cheryl Hardcastle as their candidate in Windsor-Tecumseh, given she was a big part of the reason why she lost. It might not matter though.

Is there any Electoral Calculus style website where I can put some polling numbers in and see what happens? I know there's the 338 simulator, but anything more detailed would be fun.

[Continential]

Is there any Electoral Calculus style website where I can put some polling numbers in and see what happens? I know there's the 338 simulator, but anything more detailed would be fun.

https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/canada-simulator.html

[beesley]

Is there any Electoral Calculus style website where I can put some polling numbers in and see what happens? I know there's the 338 simulator, but anything more detailed would be fun.

https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/canada-simulator.html

Ooh that is good. Thanks very much.

[King of Kensington]

Interesting that the NDP has chosen Cheryl Hardcastle as their candidate in Windsor-Tecumseh, given she was a big part of the reason why she lost. It might not matter though.

Is there any Electoral Calculus style website where I can put some polling numbers in and see what happens? I know there's the 338 simulator, but anything more detailed would be fun.

If O'Toole's "blue collar strategy" actually goes anywhere (so far no evidence it's resonating at all) Windsor-Tecumseh is the kind of seat they could take.

[beesley]

Interesting that the NDP has chosen Cheryl Hardcastle as their candidate in Windsor-Tecumseh, given she was a big part of the reason why she lost. It might not matter though.

Is there any Electoral Calculus style website where I can put some polling numbers in and see what happens? I know there's the 338 simulator, but anything more detailed would be fun.

If O'Toole's "blue collar strategy" actually goes anywhere (so far no evidence it's resonating at all) Windsor-Tecumseh is the kind of seat they could take.

Strikes me as a pretty weak strategy. What other seats are there that would flip? A few ridings like Sydney-Victoria, plus a few Hamilton and Niagara seats and maybe a few in Northern Ontario. That doesn't seem enough if he's struggling in York and the BC Lower Mainland.

[King of Kensington]

This is a pretty stunning statement:

Here is a mildly shocking implication of our recent polling . If these numbers hold up it may explain why Pierre Poilievre is vigorously campaigning . And Erin O'Toole. There are literally no safe CPC seats in Ontario right now . #1993

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1425281814625718282

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

This is a pretty stunning statement:

Here is a mildly shocking implication of our recent polling . If these numbers hold up it may explain why Pierre Poilievre is vigorously campaigning . And Erin O'Toole. There are literally no safe CPC seats in Ontario right now . #1993

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1425281814625718282

"Literally no safe CPC seats" seems like a bit of a stretch, there's no amount of scumbaggery that could lead the Tories to lose seats like Renfrew-Nipissing or Elgin-Middlesex. But if the election goes right for the Liberals and badly for the Tories, there's a world where both O'Toole and Poilievre are looking for a new job by the end of September.

[King of Kensington]

Frank Graves deleted the post.

Even if the CPC was at 20% in Ontario I think they'd still win some seats.  In 90s situation was different with Reform and PCs evenly split, allowing Liberals to win rural seats with vote splits.

[Central Lake]

Regarding the discussed Erin O' Toole blue collar strategy. It could have an effect in defending the ridings of Kenora and Essex

[mileslunn]

This is a pretty stunning statement:

Here is a mildly shocking implication of our recent polling . If these numbers hold up it may explain why Pierre Poilievre is vigorously campaigning . And Erin O'Toole. There are literally no safe CPC seats in Ontario right now . #1993

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1425281814625718282

"Literally no safe CPC seats" seems like a bit of a stretch, there's no amount of scumbaggery that could lead the Tories to lose seats like Renfrew-Nipissing or Elgin-Middlesex. But if the election goes right for the Liberals and badly for the Tories, there's a world where both O'Toole and Poilievre are looking for a new job by the end of September.

I could easily see Tories falling below 30 seats and maybe even 25 seats if things go really badly, but I would be shocked if they got under 20 seats in Ontario.  Only way that happens is if PPC starts getting around 10% in polls which I don't see happening.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

New Abacus: https://abacusdata.ca/election-2021-liberals-lead-by-9/

I wanted to pinpoint the Quebec numbers in particular. If the main anti-LPC parties in Quebec (BQ and Tories) split like that (poll suggests 22-19), the Liberals will win a good number of seats there without really having to increase their numbers all that much. A simple Tooclosetocall input of those numbers gives the LPC 45 seats in Quebec, 10 more than they won in 2019 and 5 more than 2015.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1425824711955554320

[mileslunn]

New Abacus: https://abacusdata.ca/election-2021-liberals-lead-by-9/

I wanted to pinpoint the Quebec numbers in particular. If the main anti-LPC parties in Quebec (BQ and Tories) split like that (poll suggests 22-19), the Liberals will win a good number of seats there without really having to increase their numbers all that much. A simple Tooclosetocall input of those numbers gives the LPC 45 seats in Quebec, 10 more than they won in 2019 and 5 more than 2015.

A bit skeptical of Quebec numbers, but Quebec doesn't tend to make up its mind until about 2 weeks before the election and wild swings not uncommon there.  Ontario more interesting as while you can swing a lot of seats with a relatively small shift, its unusual for a party to rise or fall more than 10 points during a campaign.  2015 perhaps exception where Liberals rose quite a bit there although Tory vote was pretty flat in Ontario whole campaign and most of shift was from NDP to Liberals.

[King of Kensington]

With the Liberals ahead of the Tories in Ontario by 13 points, the NDP would likely end up with few new seats there even with 22% province-wide.

[King of Kensington]

Uni-Rosedale could also vote NDP theoretically, but not with Freeland as the incumbent.

Chrystia Freeland appeals to both the "professors and plutocrats" demographics in Uni-Rose.

It's interesting to note how both the Annex and Rosedale are more Liberal today than in the Chretien era.  At that time PCs were strong in Rosedale while the NDP did better in the Annex. 

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The NDP got stomped in Quebec in 2019, but even after that wipeout there was still a small number of ridings that weren't necessarily total lost causes. Are they trying to get the ex-MPs to run again or otherwise looking like they'll make any sort of effort in them, or has the whole province outside of Boulerice's seat been written off for the foreseeable future?

[mileslunn]

My thoughts on the parties are as follows:

Liberals: Definitely in the driver's seat but still would only take a slight uptick to win a landslide majority of over 200 seats while only a slight drop to struggle to hold the 157 they have (note biggest drop in Tory support is Prairies so Tory vote is probably not as inefficient as was in 2019).  That being said, short of a monumental mess up or one opposition leader really catching in, they should win most seats.  Real question is will it be a majority or minority.  I think majority is narrowly favoured, but wouldn't be shocked if they fall a bit short either. 

Conservatives: Right now in very bad shape and most likely election will be a defensive one.  Pandemic has been devastating for parties on right as moderates who they need to win over tend to support vaccinations, vaccine passports, and public health restrictions, while much of their right flank opposes them so have to look over both shoulders.  Go right and fail to win key swing votes they need.  Go closer to centre and risk PPC or Maverick Party gaining and splitting votes.  Still Tories do tend to outperform polls is one saving grace, but usually only 2-3 points so not nearly enough to get them anywhere near power.  Perhaps one thing that could cheer them up is Harper going into 2006 election had similar numbers, but you also had a 13 year incumbent rocked by major scandal, not 6 year one who people seem okay with thus I think shifts like you saw in 2006 are very unlikely. 

NDP: Singh has very high personal numbers so definitely has potential for NDP surge.  Still repeating 1990 election in Ontario, 2015 in Alberta, 2011 federally, or 2018 in Ontario will be tough.  To make matters worse, NDP vote heavily skews towards millennials who generally don't vote in same numbers as older voters do.  That being said Singh's personal popularity does bode well if Trudeau slips up and more importantly lead amongst millennials suggests long term party has potential to do quite well. 

Bloc Quebecois: Down a bit from last election, but Quebec tends to be quite volatile and usually we don't know which way they will go until about 2 weeks before election so I could see them either gaining or losing seats.

Green Party: With all the infighting, they are pretty much toast.  They will be lucky if they can hold onto a single seat.  Their best option would be immediate leadership change but might be too late.  BQ back in 2017 was in similar crisis and things looked bleak but recovered through leadership change, but Greens lack time for that.

PPC/Maverick Party: I suspect both win 0 seats and underperform.  Most of their rabid supporters hate Trudeau with a passion so when push comes to shove, I expect most to end up voting Conservative in end (although won't be nearly enough for Tories to win).

[Geoffrey Howe]

My thoughts on the parties are as follows:
Conservatives: Right now in very bad shape and most likely election will be a defensive one.  Pandemic has been devastating for parties on right as moderates who they need to win over tend to support vaccinations, vaccine passports, and public health restrictions, while much of their right flank opposes them so have to look over both shoulders.  Go right and fail to win key swing votes they need.  Go closer to centre and risk PPC or Maverick Party gaining and splitting votes.  Still Tories do tend to outperform polls is one saving grace, but usually only 2-3 points so not nearly enough to get them anywhere near power.  Perhaps one thing that could cheer them up is Harper going into 2006 election had similar numbers, but you also had a 13 year incumbent rocked by major scandal, not 6 year one who people seem okay with thus I think shifts like you saw in 2006 are very unlikely. 

Is their best hope Singh's popularity you mention below splitting the left?

[Continential]

Green Party: With all the infighting, they are pretty much toast.  They will be lucky if they can hold onto a single seat.  Their best option would be immediate leadership change but might be too late.  BQ back in 2017 was in similar crisis and things looked bleak but recovered through leadership change, but Greens lack time for that.

Is May retiring?

[King of Kensington]

Is their best hope Singh's popularity you mention below splitting the left?

Conservative ceiling is lower than a decade ago, thus making it harder to benefit from vote-splitting on their left.

[mileslunn]

Is their best hope Singh's popularity you mention below splitting the left?

Conservative ceiling is lower than a decade ago, thus making it harder to benefit from vote-splitting on their left.

That is true although if you add PPC + Maverick party only slightly lower, but definitely country has shifted leftward in past decade, in fact shift has been very strong and I don't think any other country has seen as big a shift leftward.  By contrast the movement to right in 80s and 90s was much more gradual.  Part of it too is left through 80s and 90s largely accepted the right wing narrative of balanced budgets, lower taxes and never really challenged it.  In last decade they have challenged it while right has surprisingly not defended it and instead focused on culture wars, which may be a vote winner in some countries, but not in Canada.

[mileslunn]

I think another big risk for Tories is anti-vaxxer candidates.  Only need a few and could seriously damage them.  After what we've gone through in pandemic, I don't think public is interested in being lectured on freedom with vaccine passports.  Most of us got our vaccines and want our lives back to as normal as possible with some minor restrictions.  Never mind party should look South and see what a mess entertaining this does.  Even many in GOP are now begging their supporters to get vaccinated as worried its killing off their own supporters.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

With the Liberals ahead of the Tories in Ontario by 13 points, the NDP would likely end up with few new seats there even with 22% province-wide.

Also, the progressive vote in Ontario has a habit of coalescing around one party. I'd be surprised to see the NDP above 20% here.

The problem I see for the (federal) NDP in Ontario is that they do not do well in immigrant-heavy areas. Immigrant-dominated parts of the GTA largely swung to the Liberals in 2019, except for the Chinese areas, which got more Conservative. Trudeau has the South Asian vote on lock (except some parts of Brampton which go NDP), and the black vote also seems to go strongly Liberal. Black voters seem to go NDP when the Liberals are down, but South Asians can go either NDP or Tory. Chinese-dominant areas give single-digit margins to the NDP, Italians seem to be Blue Grits who don't care for the NDP, Jewish and Eastern European areas will absolutely not vote NDP, and Muslims of all backgrounds tend to go to the default anti-CPC choice, i.e. Liberals (see: Milton). Filipinos seem to be divided by class, but generally, little love for the NDP.