2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This race will be the tipping point.

Disagree. If Democrats can’t even beat McSally, they’ve already lost the Senate.

Lose AL
Gain CO
Gain ME
Gain NC
AZ tipping point.

[MT Treasurer]

This race will be the tipping point.

Disagree. If Democrats can’t even beat McSally, they’ve already lost the Senate.

Lose AL
Gain CO
Gain ME
Gain NC
AZ tipping point.

I really don’t see Collins losing while McSally wins, and I’d say Tillis' seat is a little less vulnerable for Republicans than McSally's (but still very much winnable for Democrats, obviously).

[pppolitics]

Any indication as to how McSally may vote on Trump's removal?

[SnowLabrador]

Any indication as to how McSally may vote on Trump's removal?

There's no question she'll vote to keep him in.

[pppolitics]

Any indication as to how McSally may vote on Trump's removal?

There's no question she'll vote to keep him in.

I guess McSally still hasn't learned that hugging Trump until the end is probably not a good strategy.

[MarkD]

I think the election will be very close, but in the end McSally will win. At the same time, Arizona will flip to the Democratic nominee narrowly too. I think these things will happen; I don't make this a very confident prediction.

[pppolitics]

I think the election will be very close, but in the end McSally will win. At the same time, Arizona will flip to the Democratic nominee narrowly too. I think these things will happen; I don't make this a very confident prediction.

I seriously doubt it.

McSally has made zero effort to reach out to voters who don't like Trump.

If Trump loses Arizona, McSally is probably going down with him.

[IceSpear]

Any indication as to how McSally may vote on Trump's removal?

There's no question she'll vote to keep him in.

I guess McSally still hasn't learned that hugging Trump until the end is probably not a good strategy.

Well, it's certainly a better strategy than voting to convict him and guaranteeing she gets Cagle'd in the primary.

[MT Treasurer]

Running away from Trump wouldn’t do McSally (or Tillis) any good or win her any Democratic voters (all it would do is alienate a base she very much needs if she’s to even have a prayer in this race). Her strategy should be praying for a red wave regardless of the campaign she runs, because she’s certainly going to need it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are gonna win AZ and CO right off the bat. Collins, Tillis and Kobach of KS are next

[pppolitics]

Running away from Trump wouldn’t do McSally (or Tillis) any good or win her any Democratic voters (all it would do is alienate a base she very much needs if she’s to even have a prayer in this race). Her strategy should be praying for a red wave regardless of the campaign she runs, because she’s certainly going to need it.

Arizona is an elastic state with a lot of independent voters.

It's not so much that she need to win over Democratic voters, but rather, that she needs to win over independent voters.

If she loses them by any significant margin, she is ****ed.

[KaiserDave]

Why....

She is running a traditional conservative campaign if not to the right of that in ARIZONA in the year 2020. Against a popular moderate with a unique background like Kelly she seems doomed to fail. Why is she running a 2004 campaign in 2020. She's literally running to the right of her 2014 congressional campaign. She might be afraid of a primary challenge sure, but right now she's running her campaign in the ground. Why? And how could/can she turn it around?

[DINGO Joe]

Simplest answer--She is an idiot.  It's a pretty common affliction in the GOP

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ is not an R state anymore, it's a Sunbelt like NV, NM, CA, CO and HI

[Tekken_Guy]

Governor Ducey chose her to run so she can lose, this way he can run for the seat himself in 2022.

[😥]

Governor Ducey chose her to run so she can lose, this way he can run for the seat himself in 2022.

If Trump is reelected, Ducey has a better shot in 2024 than in 2022

[Frenchrepublican]

Simplest answer--She is an idiot.  It's a pretty common affliction in the GOP

Yeah because insulting tens of millions of people just because of their partisan affiliation is very clever, if there is a idiot here your are probably the one.

[PAK Man]

Because she is an incredibly overrated candidate that everybody seems to think is a perfect fit for Arizona. I think people forget that she only BARELY defeated Barber in 2014 and didn't face a serious challenge in 2016 because of her fundraising prowess scaring away Democrats - even though Clinton won her district.

[Xing]

I mean, the Republican strategy seems to be embracing Trump 100% in the hopes of driving up turnout and getting all of Trump's support. Given that she's been running behind Trump in recent polls, that might not be all that terrible of a strategy. Plus, it's not like Republicans get a lot of flak for running/voting in swing states like hardcore conservatives. Only Democrats are expected to "move to the center."

[Landslide Lyndon]

Because Republicans have learned to worry more about the primary than the general election.

[MT Treasurer]

McSally is the kind of candidate you only vote for because of the letter next to her name, but that’s simply no longer enough for the GOP in the Arizona of 2020. She’s not a good fit for the Republican base, the state is trending away from Republicans, her sudden embrace of Trump (justifiably) comes off as overly calculating, she was appointed to the Senate one month after losing statewide, etc.

No one should be surprised that she’s underperforming Trump by a few points. Flake did 6 points worse than Romney in 2012 too.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

"Acting"?

[DrScholl]

Simplest answer--She is an idiot.  It's a pretty common affliction in the GOP

Yeah because insulting tens of millions of people just because of their partisan affiliation is very clever, if there is a idiot here your you're are probably the one.

If you are going to call someone an idiot then you should check your spelling first.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Simplest answer--She is an idiot.  It's a pretty common affliction in the GOP

Yeah because insulting tens of millions of people just because of their partisan affiliation is very clever, if there is a idiot here your are probably the one.

Cause as we all know republicans don’t insult democratic voters at all 🙄

[Roblox]

Simplest answer--She is an idiot.  It's a pretty common affliction in the GOP

Yeah because insulting tens of millions of people just because of their partisan affiliation is very clever, if there is a idiot here your are probably the one.

Republicans: Those liberal Californians and New Yorkers are scumbag elitists and a scourge on this nation.

"Just campaign strategy people, gotta appeal to the #WWC."

Someone: suggest the party full of climate deniers and that uses "The brown people are coming!" as a main tactic isn't the sharpest bunch of knives.

"This is highly offensive and defamatory to tens of millions! When will the divisiveness end?"