2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[QAnonKelly]

If Gallego doesn't run there's a good chance that he would be VA secretary if the democrats win in 2020.

He could always run for Governor in 22 too

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1100171035784040453

[Zaybay]

Kelly has also secured the endorsement of Representative Kirkpatrick.

[Zaybay]

This is just a rumor, so dont take it as fact.

Apparently, Gallego is waiting for after the Phoenix Mayoral Race to announce his bid for the senate seat. His Ex-Wife is running for the position, and he doesnt want to upstage her(they have a surprisingly friendly relationship for being rather recent divorcees).

This is just what Ive been hearing .

[SnowLabrador]

I really hope Gallego doesn't run now. Kelly is a stronger candidate.

[pppolitics]

This is just a rumor, so dont take it as fact.

Apparently, Gallego is waiting for after the Phoenix Mayoral Race to announce his bid for the senate seat. His Ex-Wife is running for the position, and he doesnt want to upstage her(they have a surprisingly friendly relationship for being rather recent divorcees).

This is just what Ive been hearing .

source?

[Zaybay]

This is just a rumor, so dont take it as fact.

Apparently, Gallego is waiting for after the Phoenix Mayoral Race to announce his bid for the senate seat. His Ex-Wife is running for the position, and he doesnt want to upstage her(they have a surprisingly friendly relationship for being rather recent divorcees).

This is just what Ive been hearing .

source?

....I dont have a source, its just what Ive been hearing from people involved in Arizona politics. It could easily be very false.

[pppolitics]

This is just a rumor, so dont take it as fact.

Apparently, Gallego is waiting for after the Phoenix Mayoral Race to announce his bid for the senate seat. His Ex-Wife is running for the position, and he doesnt want to upstage her(they have a surprisingly friendly relationship for being rather recent divorcees).

This is just what Ive been hearing .

source?

....I dont have a source, its just what Ive been hearing from people involved in Arizona politics. It could easily be very false.

Considering that you have been clamoring the whole time for Gallego to jump in...

What I want to know is this:

What is it that Gallego has that nobody else does?

What does he have to add to the field?

[Zaybay]

This is just a rumor, so dont take it as fact.

Apparently, Gallego is waiting for after the Phoenix Mayoral Race to announce his bid for the senate seat. His Ex-Wife is running for the position, and he doesnt want to upstage her(they have a surprisingly friendly relationship for being rather recent divorcees).

This is just what Ive been hearing .

source?

....I dont have a source, its just what Ive been hearing from people involved in Arizona politics. It could easily be very false.

Considering that you have been clamoring the whole time for Gallego to jump in...

What I want to know is this:

What is it that Gallego has that nobody else does?

What does he add to the field?

I was just sharing some info I found, but alright

Well, I personally like him more, but you can argue that he is a much safer choice than Kelly. Gallego is a rather known factor, we know how he will preform in debates, we know his speaking skills, we know how he will preform. Kelly is much more of an unknown factor, he can soar or possibly sink. Hes also got more baggage than Gallego to attack, from both the Left and the Right.

Kelly and Gallego have their own strengths. Kelly is a strong fundraiser so far, while Gallego represents the D core of AZ(he can get higher turnout from Ds in the general). Kelly is an astronaut, Gallego is a veteran. Its really up to personal taste which candidate you want.

[pppolitics]

This is just a rumor, so dont take it as fact.

Apparently, Gallego is waiting for after the Phoenix Mayoral Race to announce his bid for the senate seat. His Ex-Wife is running for the position, and he doesnt want to upstage her(they have a surprisingly friendly relationship for being rather recent divorcees).

This is just what Ive been hearing .

source?

....I dont have a source, its just what Ive been hearing from people involved in Arizona politics. It could easily be very false.

Considering that you have been clamoring the whole time for Gallego to jump in...

What I want to know is this:

What is it that Gallego has that nobody else does?

What does he add to the field?

I was just sharing some info I found, but alright

Well, I personally like him more, but you can argue that he is a much safer choice than Kelly. Gallego is a rather known factor, we know how he will preform in debates, we know his speaking skills, we know how he will preform. Kelly is much more of an unknown factor, he can soar or possibly sink. Hes also got more baggage than Gallego to attack, from both the Left and the Right.

Kelly and Gallego have their own strengths. Kelly is a strong fundraiser so far, while Gallego represents the D core of AZ(he can get higher turnout from Ds in the general). Kelly is an astronaut, Gallego is a veteran. Its really up to personal taste which candidate you want.

How many competitive races have Gallego won?

What makes you think Kelly has "more baggage" when he doesn't have a voting record, but Gallego does?

2020 is a presidential year.

Are you saying that there would be a lot of Democrats would turnout specifically to vote for Gallego that would otherwise sit out the election?

Also, Kelly was a naval aviator who flew 39 combat missions in Operation Desert Storm and received a number of awards.

Are you telling me you don't considered him a veteran?

[Zaybay]

This is just a rumor, so dont take it as fact.

Apparently, Gallego is waiting for after the Phoenix Mayoral Race to announce his bid for the senate seat. His Ex-Wife is running for the position, and he doesnt want to upstage her(they have a surprisingly friendly relationship for being rather recent divorcees).

This is just what Ive been hearing .

source?

....I dont have a source, its just what Ive been hearing from people involved in Arizona politics. It could easily be very false.

Considering that you have been clamoring the whole time for Gallego to jump in...

What I want to know is this:

What is it that Gallego has that nobody else does?

What does he add to the field?

I was just sharing some info I found, but alright

Well, I personally like him more, but you can argue that he is a much safer choice than Kelly. Gallego is a rather known factor, we know how he will preform in debates, we know his speaking skills, we know how he will preform. Kelly is much more of an unknown factor, he can soar or possibly sink. Hes also got more baggage than Gallego to attack, from both the Left and the Right.

Kelly and Gallego have their own strengths. Kelly is a strong fundraiser so far, while Gallego represents the D core of AZ(he can get higher turnout from Ds in the general). Kelly is an astronaut, Gallego is a veteran. Its really up to personal taste which candidate you want.

How many competitive races have Gallego won?

What makes you think Kelly has "more baggage" when he doesn't have a voting record, but Gallego does?

2020 is a presidential year.

Are you saying that there would be a lot of Democrats would turnout specifically to vote for Gallego that would otherwise sit out the election?

Also, Kelley was a naval aviator who flew 39 combat missions in Operation Desert Storm and received a number of awards.

Are you telling me you don't considered him a veteran?

1. He has been in politics for a while, and was elected in rather tough conditions back when he was a state senator. I should note Kelly doesnt even have electoral experience.

2. Kelly has a lot of baggage from his PACs and groups that he supported. Gallego has nothing really controversial on his voting record, just a rather standard Progressive. Kelly's group, meanwhile, supported Pat Toomey and other Rs in their elections against Dems. You can say how big or small this actually is, but its still a rather obvious knock.

3.......and?

4. I mean, yeah. This is a known phenomenon. Representatives usually get higher support from their CD when running for an election, even if its a hostile one.

5. If he wants to emphasize it, then he can go right ahead, but he seems to be going more with Astronaut than veteran. He can, of course, pivot, but I highly suspect him to stick with Astronaut.

Anyway, its just a rumor Ive been hearing. I dont know the validity, but I thought I would share.

[Devout Centrist]

Not sure Gallego is gonna enter. I had someone tell me that Sinema lobbied Woods to jump into the race and he declined.

[Zaybay]

This is just a rumor, so dont take it as fact.

Apparently, Gallego is waiting for after the Phoenix Mayoral Race to announce his bid for the senate seat. His Ex-Wife is running for the position, and he doesnt want to upstage her(they have a surprisingly friendly relationship for being rather recent divorcees).

This is just what Ive been hearing .

source?

....I dont have a source, its just what Ive been hearing from people involved in Arizona politics. It could easily be very false.

Considering that you have been clamoring the whole time for Gallego to jump in...

What I want to know is this:

What is it that Gallego has that nobody else does?

What does he add to the field?

I was just sharing some info I found, but alright

Well, I personally like him more, but you can argue that he is a much safer choice than Kelly. Gallego is a rather known factor, we know how he will preform in debates, we know his speaking skills, we know how he will preform. Kelly is much more of an unknown factor, he can soar or possibly sink. Hes also got more baggage than Gallego to attack, from both the Left and the Right.

Kelly and Gallego have their own strengths. Kelly is a strong fundraiser so far, while Gallego represents the D core of AZ(he can get higher turnout from Ds in the general). Kelly is an astronaut, Gallego is a veteran. Its really up to personal taste which candidate you want.

How many competitive races have Gallego won?

What makes you think Kelly has "more baggage" when he doesn't have a voting record, but Gallego does?

2020 is a presidential year.

Are you saying that there would be a lot of Democrats would turnout specifically to vote for Gallego that would otherwise sit out the election?

Also, Kelly was a naval aviator who flew 39 combat missions in Operation Desert Storm and received a number of awards.

Are you telling me you don't considered him a veteran?

Yeah, I was going through Zaybay’s reasoning and basically was thinking of the same holes in his argument line-by-line that you were, lol. Uh, Kelly is literally a retired Navy Captain first off. Second, there is no more baggage on Kelly than there is on Gallego, unless there’s something really dark we all don’t know about. Third, Gallego’s certainly been sounds a bang up job in getting 30% voter turnout in general elections in his current district, lol. Fourth, no person who wasn’t going to already be voting in the Presidential race is going to specifically come out to vote for a Senate candidate. If they care enough about a certain Senate candidate, they’re probably already locked in reliable partisans anyway

I already addressed the stuff above.

Anyway, I never even called Gallego a stronger candidate. I think Kelly is. I mean, look at his fundraising haul, its rather impressive. I just like him more, and Im pretty sure, as this is a political discussion forum, having differing opinions on candidates is rather the norm.

I just wanted to share something I heard from people involved in AZ politics, thats all.

[YE]

I have to say I trust Gallego more as a Senator given he has an actual voting record than Kelly. And I don't see a good reason why barring any horrific baggage from either candidate, why either would preform any differently than any other Democrat. I'm just saying...

It's also hard to see a Gallego vs Kelly primary playing out largely given Kelly is a flat out unknown. Where would his base be? Phoenix? Gifford's old base? Who would Native Americans vote for?

[pppolitics]

This is just a rumor, so dont take it as fact.

Apparently, Gallego is waiting for after the Phoenix Mayoral Race to announce his bid for the senate seat. His Ex-Wife is running for the position, and he doesnt want to upstage her(they have a surprisingly friendly relationship for being rather recent divorcees).

This is just what Ive been hearing .

source?

....I dont have a source, its just what Ive been hearing from people involved in Arizona politics. It could easily be very false.

Considering that you have been clamoring the whole time for Gallego to jump in...

What I want to know is this:

What is it that Gallego has that nobody else does?

What does he add to the field?

I was just sharing some info I found, but alright

Well, I personally like him more, but you can argue that he is a much safer choice than Kelly. Gallego is a rather known factor, we know how he will preform in debates, we know his speaking skills, we know how he will preform. Kelly is much more of an unknown factor, he can soar or possibly sink. Hes also got more baggage than Gallego to attack, from both the Left and the Right.

Kelly and Gallego have their own strengths. Kelly is a strong fundraiser so far, while Gallego represents the D core of AZ(he can get higher turnout from Ds in the general). Kelly is an astronaut, Gallego is a veteran. Its really up to personal taste which candidate you want.

How many competitive races have Gallego won?

What makes you think Kelly has "more baggage" when he doesn't have a voting record, but Gallego does?

2020 is a presidential year.

Are you saying that there would be a lot of Democrats would turnout specifically to vote for Gallego that would otherwise sit out the election?

Also, Kelley was a naval aviator who flew 39 combat missions in Operation Desert Storm and received a number of awards.

Are you telling me you don't considered him a veteran?

1. He has been in politics for a while, and was elected in rather tough conditions back when he was a state senator. I should note Kelly doesnt even have electoral experience.

2. Kelly has a lot of baggage from his PACs and groups that he supported. Gallego has nothing really controversial on his voting record, just a rather standard Progressive. Kelly's group, meanwhile, supported Pat Toomey and other Rs in their elections against Dems. You can say how big or small this actually is, but its still a rather obvious knock.

3.......and?

4. I mean, yeah. This is a known phenomenon. Representatives usually get higher support from their CD when running for an election, even if its a hostile one.

5. If he wants to emphasize it, then he can go right ahead, but he seems to be going more with Astronaut than veteran. He can, of course, pivot, but I highly suspect him to stick with Astronaut.

Anyway, its just a rumor Ive been hearing. I dont know the validity, but I thought I would share.

1. He was running in a Safe D legislative district. See: https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona_House_of_Representatives_District_27

2. Gallego voting record is more liberal than the average house Democrat. See:
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/report-cards/2017/house/ideology

3. Turnout won't be a problem

4. Arizona has 9 congressional districts and he is only from one of them.

5. So you upselling that Gallego is a veteran, but then deemphasizing that Kelly is also a veteran. That must be one big mental gymnastic that you have to perform.

[Brittain33]

Zaybay or shoud I say Zayboy is talking nonsense. Gallego will be crushed by Kelly if he even runs.

Remember: This is the same guy who wanted the Field to be cleared for Gallego. Quardrouple LOL.

Zaybay has been wrong on so many things starting by overestimating Polls from NBC/Marist during 2018.

I'm not going to moderate this comment, but this thread risks venturing into some gray areas in the direction of personal attacks if the focus is too much on the poster rather than the opinions expressed. Please keep that in mind.

[pppolitics]

This is just a rumor, so dont take it as fact.

Apparently, Gallego is waiting for after the Phoenix Mayoral Race to announce his bid for the senate seat. His Ex-Wife is running for the position, and he doesnt want to upstage her(they have a surprisingly friendly relationship for being rather recent divorcees).

This is just what Ive been hearing .

source?

....I dont have a source, its just what Ive been hearing from people involved in Arizona politics. It could easily be very false.

Considering that you have been clamoring the whole time for Gallego to jump in...

What I want to know is this:

What is it that Gallego has that nobody else does?

What does he add to the field?

I was just sharing some info I found, but alright

Well, I personally like him more, but you can argue that he is a much safer choice than Kelly. Gallego is a rather known factor, we know how he will preform in debates, we know his speaking skills, we know how he will preform. Kelly is much more of an unknown factor, he can soar or possibly sink. Hes also got more baggage than Gallego to attack, from both the Left and the Right.

Kelly and Gallego have their own strengths. Kelly is a strong fundraiser so far, while Gallego represents the D core of AZ(he can get higher turnout from Ds in the general). Kelly is an astronaut, Gallego is a veteran. Its really up to personal taste which candidate you want.

How many competitive races have Gallego won?

What makes you think Kelly has "more baggage" when he doesn't have a voting record, but Gallego does?

2020 is a presidential year.

Are you saying that there would be a lot of Democrats would turnout specifically to vote for Gallego that would otherwise sit out the election?

Also, Kelly was a naval aviator who flew 39 combat missions in Operation Desert Storm and received a number of awards.

Are you telling me you don't considered him a veteran?

Yeah, I was going through Zaybay’s reasoning and basically was thinking of the same holes in his argument line-by-line that you were, lol. Uh, Kelly is literally a retired Navy Captain first off. Second, there is no more baggage on Kelly than there is on Gallego, unless there’s something really dark we all don’t know about. Third, Gallego’s certainly been sounds a bang up job in getting 30% voter turnout in general elections in his current district, lol. Fourth, no person who wasn’t going to already be voting in the Presidential race is going to specifically come out to vote for a Senate candidate. If they care enough about a certain Senate candidate, they’re probably already locked in reliable partisans anyway

I already addressed the stuff above.

Anyway, I never even called Gallego a stronger candidate. I think Kelly is. I mean, look at his fundraising haul, its rather impressive. I just like him more, and Im pretty sure, as this is a political discussion forum, having differing opinions on candidates is rather the norm.

I just wanted to share something I heard from people involved in AZ politics, thats all.

So now I have you on record that you think Kelly is a stronger then Gallego.

[Zaybay]

1. He was running in a Safe D legislative district. See: https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona_House_of_Representatives_District_27

2. Gallego voting record is more liberal than the average house Democrat. See:
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/report-cards/2017/house/ideology

3. Turnout won't be a problem

4. Arizona has 9 congressional districts and he is only from one of them.

5. So you upselling that Gallego is a veteran, but then deemphasizing that Kelly is also a veteran. That must be one big mental gymnastic that you have to perform.

I really dont want to continue this.

1. Yeah, you just proved my point. The guy has been in multiple competitive elections, though not with Rs, but fellow Ds(which you can argue are more or less dangerous). That still shows he has been in competitive elections, which is, again, more than Kelly has ever been in.

2. And? We have already talked about this over, and over, and over, but Progressives dont have some sort of weird handicap when running in elections, and moderates arent the secret key to victory.

3. For a CD famous for having really low turnout, and one thats really Blue, any increase helps.

4. That is one more than Kelly is from. Sinema was also from only 1 CD, and so was McSally. Both candidates saw better performances in their home CDs. I really dont get the point of mentioning this is.

5. The point is emphasis. Gallego has much of his persona built on the fact that he is a veteran, and has been rather important in veteran affairs in congress. Kelly has put more emphasis on the fact that he is an astronaut. Most candidates try to cultivate an image, and when Kelly comes to mind, its an astronaut, and when Gallego comes to mind, its a Veteran.

So now I have you on record that you think Kelly is a stronger then Gallego.

At the moment, yeah. Kelly clearly has strong fundraising and has a lot of excitement behind his campaign. As I said before, Kelly can either be a homerun or a flop, and so far hes doing rather well. This can, of course, change with how the campaign goes on. Its a marathon afterall, not a sprint.

[pppolitics]

1. He was running in a Safe D legislative district. See: https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona_House_of_Representatives_District_27

2. Gallego voting record is more liberal than the average house Democrat. See:
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/report-cards/2017/house/ideology

3. Turnout won't be a problem

4. Arizona has 9 congressional districts and he is only from one of them.

5. So you upselling that Gallego is a veteran, but then deemphasizing that Kelly is also a veteran. That must be one big mental gymnastic that you have to perform.

I really dont want to continue this.

1. Yeah, you just proved my point. The guy has been in multiple competitive elections, though not with Rs, but fellow Ds(which you can argue are more or less dangerous). That still shows he has been in competitive elections, which is, again, more than Kelly has ever been in.

2. And? We have already talked about this over, and over, and over, but Progressives dont have some sort of weird handicap when running in elections, and moderates arent the secret key to victory.

3. For a CD famous for having really low turnout, and one thats really Blue, any increase helps.

4. That is one more than Kelly is from. Sinema was also from only 1 CD, and so was McSally. Both candidates saw better performances in their home CDs. I really dont get the point of mentioning this is.

5. The point is emphasis. Gallego has much of his persona built on the fact that he is a veteran, and has been rather important in veteran affairs in congress. Kelly has put more emphasis on the fact that he is an astronaut. Most candidates try to cultivate an image, and when Kelly comes to mind, its an astronaut, and when Gallego comes to mind, its a Veteran.

So now I have you on record that you think Kelly is a stronger then Gallego.

At the moment, yeah. Kelly clearly has strong fundraising and has a lot of excitement behind his campaign. As I said before, Kelly can either be a homerun or a flop, and so far hes doing rather well. This can, of course, change with how the campaign goes on. Its a marathon afterall, not a sprint.

1. When you said that Gallego has been in "multiple competitive elections", what I did not have in mind was him running in safe D seat against another democrat. That's definitely not how the Senate election is going to be though and he hasn't won a competitive election against a Republican.

2. Not going to get into this again

3. According to a recent poll (now, I am not saying that the poll is super accurate or anything, but that's what we have to go on) Kelly has better net approval rating than Gallego across all of Arizona, including Maricopa. Now, are you telling me that people in Maricopa are less likely going to vote for Kelly than Gallego even though the former has higher net approval rating? Also, what about the rest of the state?

4. See 3

5. Have you seen his ads? He said specifically that he flew 39 combat missions in Operation Desert Storm. Just because he was also being an astronaut does not subtract from him being a veteran.

[2016]

By no means is Gallego a safer & stronger choice than Kelly.

[Zaybay]

1. He was running in a Safe D legislative district. See: https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona_House_of_Representatives_District_27

2. Gallego voting record is more liberal than the average house Democrat. See:
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/report-cards/2017/house/ideology

3. Turnout won't be a problem

4. Arizona has 9 congressional districts and he is only from one of them.

5. So you upselling that Gallego is a veteran, but then deemphasizing that Kelly is also a veteran. That must be one big mental gymnastic that you have to perform.

I really dont want to continue this.

1. Yeah, you just proved my point. The guy has been in multiple competitive elections, though not with Rs, but fellow Ds(which you can argue are more or less dangerous). That still shows he has been in competitive elections, which is, again, more than Kelly has ever been in.

2. And? We have already talked about this over, and over, and over, but Progressives dont have some sort of weird handicap when running in elections, and moderates arent the secret key to victory.

3. For a CD famous for having really low turnout, and one thats really Blue, any increase helps.

4. That is one more than Kelly is from. Sinema was also from only 1 CD, and so was McSally. Both candidates saw better performances in their home CDs. I really dont get the point of mentioning this is.

5. The point is emphasis. Gallego has much of his persona built on the fact that he is a veteran, and has been rather important in veteran affairs in congress. Kelly has put more emphasis on the fact that he is an astronaut. Most candidates try to cultivate an image, and when Kelly comes to mind, its an astronaut, and when Gallego comes to mind, its a Veteran.

So now I have you on record that you think Kelly is a stronger then Gallego.

At the moment, yeah. Kelly clearly has strong fundraising and has a lot of excitement behind his campaign. As I said before, Kelly can either be a homerun or a flop, and so far hes doing rather well. This can, of course, change with how the campaign goes on. Its a marathon afterall, not a sprint.

1. When you said that Gallego has been in "multiple competitive elections", what I did not have in mind was him running in safe D seat against another democrat. That's definitely not how the Senate election is going to be though and he hasn't won a competitive election against a Republican.

2. Not going to get into this again

3. According to a recent poll (now, I am not saying that the poll is super accurate or anything, but that's what we have to go on) Kelly has better net approval rating than Gallego across all of Arizona, including Maricopa. Now, are you telling me that people in Maricopa are less likely going to vote for Kelly than Gallego even though the former has higher net approval rating? Also, what about the rest of the state?

4. Have you seen his ads? He said specifically that he flew 39 combat missions in Operation Desert Storm. Just because he was also being an astronaut does not subtract from him being a veteran.

1. That may be true, but my original point was that Gallego has campaigned in competitive elections before. While it was D vs D, it was still an election where he had to hold on against a challenger. The other 1/2 of my point was that Kelly hasnt ever campaigned in a competitive election, so even if it was D Vs D, its still more than Kelly.

2. That is true, on the surface. Going under, however, shows the truth. Just like in the current D presidential nomination, Kelly doesnt have a higher net approval because hes more popular, but because more people know who he is.

Kelly: 41/21/38 (Net +20)

Gallego: 30/23/47 (Net +7)

As you can see, Kelly and Gallego have almost the exact same disapproval rate, 23 vs 21. But the approval and known bars are different. Gallego has a lower net approval not because Arizonians dont like him that much, but because Arizonians dont really know who he is to begin with.

Am I assuming that Maricopa is gonna vote for Gallego? No, not at all. Am I saying that Gallego's base of support is in his CD? Yes.

As for the rest of the state, I also have no idea how some areas will vote. But I do know that outside of Tuscon and Phoenix, there wont be that many D primary voters outside of the Hispanic and Native American areas around the state. Will Gallego win them? I dont know. Will Kelly win them? I dont know. Its way too early to tell.

3. Yes, he mentioned it, as an aside. But I seem to remember certain themes about his ad, like Astronaut and his advocacy with Gabby Giffords. Thats the thing. Of course there are multiple dimensions and aspects of candidates. But politicians usually cultivate an aspect, and thats what voters remember off the top of their head.
Kelly? Astronaut, Wife of Gabby Giffords.
Doug Jones? Birmingham Bombing Lawyer.
Billie Sutton? Wheelchair, Cowboy.
Brian Kemp? Hardcore Conservative.
and so on.
Of course hes gonna talk about his past as a veteran, but I really doubt he will be defined by his past as a veteran, as Gallego would.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I like how your argument against Kelly includes both that he is "much more of an unknown" than Gallego AND that his is much better known than Gallego.

And his "baggage" is that he was part of a pro-gun control PAC?  After his wife was almost murdered by gun violence??  That's baggage?? 

If you are a progressive in favor of gun control, I can't imagine a more effective advocate for this cause in the Senate.  He might be the only Democrat running in a reddish state who will be almost complete immune from Republican attacks on his gun control stance.

Also this doesn't seem like correct math:

Gallego: 20/23/57 (Net +7)

[Zaybay]

I like how your argument against Kelly includes both that he is "much more of an unknown" than Gallego AND that his is much better known than Gallego.

And his "baggage" is that he was part of a pro-gun control PAC?  After his wife was almost murdered by gun violence??  That's baggage?? 

If you are a progressive in favor of gun control, I can't imagine a more effective advocate for this cause in the Senate.  He might be the only Democrat running in a reddish state who will be almost complete immune from Republican attacks on his gun control stance.

Also this doesn't seem like correct math:

Gallego: 20/23/57 (Net +7)

Whoops, your right. That should be 30/23/47,

Fixed

Also, the term "much more of an unknown" refers to performance, not to name rec. As I have said multiple times, he can either be a slam dunk or a failure, due to his relative lack of political experience but strong, ties fundraising, and appeal.

[pppolitics]

1. He was running in a Safe D legislative district. See: https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona_House_of_Representatives_District_27

2. Gallego voting record is more liberal than the average house Democrat. See:
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/report-cards/2017/house/ideology

3. Turnout won't be a problem

4. Arizona has 9 congressional districts and he is only from one of them.

5. So you upselling that Gallego is a veteran, but then deemphasizing that Kelly is also a veteran. That must be one big mental gymnastic that you have to perform.

I really dont want to continue this.

1. Yeah, you just proved my point. The guy has been in multiple competitive elections, though not with Rs, but fellow Ds(which you can argue are more or less dangerous). That still shows he has been in competitive elections, which is, again, more than Kelly has ever been in.

2. And? We have already talked about this over, and over, and over, but Progressives dont have some sort of weird handicap when running in elections, and moderates arent the secret key to victory.

3. For a CD famous for having really low turnout, and one thats really Blue, any increase helps.

4. That is one more than Kelly is from. Sinema was also from only 1 CD, and so was McSally. Both candidates saw better performances in their home CDs. I really dont get the point of mentioning this is.

5. The point is emphasis. Gallego has much of his persona built on the fact that he is a veteran, and has been rather important in veteran affairs in congress. Kelly has put more emphasis on the fact that he is an astronaut. Most candidates try to cultivate an image, and when Kelly comes to mind, its an astronaut, and when Gallego comes to mind, its a Veteran.

So now I have you on record that you think Kelly is a stronger then Gallego.

At the moment, yeah. Kelly clearly has strong fundraising and has a lot of excitement behind his campaign. As I said before, Kelly can either be a homerun or a flop, and so far hes doing rather well. This can, of course, change with how the campaign goes on. Its a marathon afterall, not a sprint.

1. When you said that Gallego has been in "multiple competitive elections", what I did not have in mind was him running in safe D seat against another democrat. That's definitely not how the Senate election is going to be though and he hasn't won a competitive election against a Republican.

2. Not going to get into this again

3. According to a recent poll (now, I am not saying that the poll is super accurate or anything, but that's what we have to go on) Kelly has better net approval rating than Gallego across all of Arizona, including Maricopa. Now, are you telling me that people in Maricopa are less likely going to vote for Kelly than Gallego even though the former has higher net approval rating? Also, what about the rest of the state?

4. Have you seen his ads? He said specifically that he flew 39 combat missions in Operation Desert Storm. Just because he was also being an astronaut does not subtract from him being a veteran.

1. That may be true, but my original point was that Gallego has campaigned in competitive elections before. While it was D vs D, it was still an election where he had to hold on against a challenger. The other 1/2 of my point was that Kelly hasnt ever campaigned in a competitive election, so even if it was D Vs D, its still more than Kelly.

2. That is true, on the surface. Going under, however, shows the truth. Just like in the current D presidential nomination, Kelly doesnt have a higher net approval because hes more popular, but because more people know who he is.

Kelly: 41/21/38 (Net +20)

Gallego: 30/23/47 (Net +7)

As you can see, Kelly and Gallego have almost the exact same disapproval rate, 23 vs 21. But the approval and known bars are different. Gallego has a lower net approval not because Arizonians dont like him that much, but because Arizonians dont really know who he is to begin with.

Am I assuming that Maricopa is gonna vote for Gallego? No, not at all. Am I saying that Gallego's base of support is in his CD? Yes.

As for the rest of the state, I also have no idea how some areas will vote. But I do know that outside of Tuscon and Phoenix, there wont be that many D primary voters outside of the Hispanic and Native American areas around the state. Will Gallego win them? I dont know. Will Kelly win them? I dont know. Its way too early to tell.

3. Yes, he mentioned it, as an aside. But I seem to remember certain themes about his ad, like Astronaut and his advocacy with Gabby Giffords. Thats the thing. Of course there are multiple dimensions and aspects of candidates. But politicians usually cultivate an aspect, and thats what voters remember off the top of their head.
Kelly? Astronaut, Wife of Gabby Giffords.
Doug Jones? Birmingham Bombing Lawyer.
Billie Sutton? Wheelchair, Cowboy.
Brian Kemp? Hardcore Conservative.
and so on.
Of course hes gonna talk about his past as a veteran, but I really doubt he will be defined by his past as a veteran, as Gallego would.

Gallego has never won any competitive race against a Republican. He has only won in safe D seats.

You keep portraying Gallego as if he's a known quantity when he isn't.

If Gallego is from a competitive seat (for example, AZ-1), I wouldn't be saying this.

I am not saying that he couldn't run a competitive compaign, but nothing so far indicated that he could either.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1103381458348134401