2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[gerritcole]

I was baffled they appointed her & surely there must be someone better in Arizona considering it's such a heavily republican state

The theory is that she got appointed specifically to lose, which would allow Ducey to run in 2022 without handing power immediately over to the democratic SoS.

The hilarous outcome of course is either her winning or Kelly winning and then beating Ducey.

Kelly is in trouble in 2022 if Biden wins.

I don’t see it - dems would have a narrow Senate majority. Not enough to truly rock the boat and if Kelly votes like Manchin/Sinema, I think he’d get a full term

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was baffled they appointed her & surely there must be someone better in Arizona considering it's such a heavily republican state

The theory is that she got appointed specifically to lose, which would allow Ducey to run in 2022 without handing power immediately over to the democratic SoS.

The hilarous outcome of course is either her winning or Kelly winning and then beating Ducey.

Kelly is in trouble in 2022 if Biden wins.

I don’t see it - dems would have a narrow Senate majority. Not enough to truly rock the boat and if Kelly votes like Manchin/Sinema, I think he’d get a full term

I don't see him as being in particular danger either, though he obviously could lose. Arizona's demographic trends are ongoing regardless of whether a Democrat is in the White House.

[Frenchrepublican]

I was baffled they appointed her & surely there must be someone better in Arizona considering it's such a heavily republican state

The theory is that she got appointed specifically to lose, which would allow Ducey to run in 2022 without handing power immediately over to the democratic SoS.

The hilarous outcome of course is either her winning or Kelly winning and then beating Ducey.

Kelly is in trouble in 2022 if Biden wins.

I don’t see it - dems would have a narrow Senate majority. Not enough to truly rock the boat and if Kelly votes like Manchin/Sinema, I think he’d get a full term

Schumer would be under a lot of pressure from the left, from Pelosi, from the medias and probably from the White House to dismantle the fillibuster. It would open the door to a truckload of progressive legislations ranging from gun control to tax hikes which would probably make thing quite hard for Kelly.

As for Manchin and Sinema both will probably move considerably to the left if democrats take the Senate.

[Pollster]

McSally campaign continues to descend into comical territory

[Nyvin]

McSally campaign continues to descend into comical territory

“Martha McSally will fight tirelessly to make sure people with pre-existing conditions are insured,”.......by voting to repeal the ACA  :-/

[lfromnj]

McSally campaign continues to descend into comical territory

It was comical since Mcsally attacked Sinema for opposing the Iraq War, showing your own service is popular to voters but reminding them what it was for, is not very popular.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I was baffled they appointed her & surely there must be someone better in Arizona considering it's such a heavily republican state

The theory is that she got appointed specifically to lose, which would allow Ducey to run in 2022 without handing power immediately over to the democratic SoS.

The hilarous outcome of course is either her winning or Kelly winning and then beating Ducey.

Kelly is in trouble in 2022 if Biden wins.

I don’t see it - dems would have a narrow Senate majority. Not enough to truly rock the boat and if Kelly votes like Manchin/Sinema, I think he’d get a full term

Schumer would be under a lot of pressure from the left, from Pelosi, from the medias and probably from the White House to dismantle the fillibuster. It would open the door to a truckload of progressive legislations ranging from gun control to tax hikes which would probably make thing quite hard for Kelly.

As for Manchin and Sinema both will probably move considerably to the left if democrats take the Senate.

The margin Kelly wins by in 2020 will be a tell tale sign if he'll be able to win in a 2022 Biden midterm. If he wins by 4-5 points or more, it's very possible that he holds on, but if he only wins by 1, then he's likely to lose. Under a Trump wave he would be pretty safe. If McSally wins in 2020, Trump is probably winning and she'll almost certaintly lose in 2022 (Kelly will probably run again).

Manchin is forced to vote more to the right than his actual values because of WV. Even when he got asked about Bernie Sanders on FOX News, he just said that Bernie Sanders got him thinking about ideas and tried to get himself out of the mess. Chances are, Manchin won't run in 2024, meaning he can get away with a more liberal voting record, and will side wih the Ds if  key vote comes down to him. If he starts voting with Rs on key votes, he's probably running for re-election. As for Sinema, her ideology is kinda weird and hard to pin point. My guess is that she'll become more liberal with time but she's waiting to see how AZ will vote in 2020. If it votes D, she's likely to win re-election. If it deosn't, while I still think she'll win, she could be in a bit of trouble. She seems more likely to buck the Dems than Manchin though. Kelly seems liberal but is running on a moderate message which seems to be working very well for him so far. This race should've been a tossup, even a slight r edge, but now it's lean D, approaching on likely D is Kelly's polling numbers hold.

[wbrocks67]

AZ-Sen: Martha McSally’s newest ad stars one of her constituents praising her on healthcare issues—a constituent who just happens to be McSally’s former campaign manager.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/04/30/martha-mcsally-ad-features-health-care-testimonial-former-aide-kristen-douglas-arizona-senate-race/3060865001/


How is McSally SO bad at this

[Storr]

AZ-Sen: Martha McSally’s newest ad stars one of her constituents praising her on healthcare issues—a constituent who just happens to be McSally’s former campaign manager.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/04/30/martha-mcsally-ad-features-health-care-testimonial-former-aide-kristen-douglas-arizona-senate-race/3060865001/


How is McSally SO bad at this

Did they think no one would figure that out or could they not find a constituent that would actually be willing to praise her on health care issues? what a joke, lmao.

[wbrocks67]

I hadn't realized, but Kelly currently leads by EIGHT points in the RCP average. ***8***

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_kelly-6801.html

[MontenegroPH]

I think Sinema is safe in 2024, so it's stupid for anyone to launch a primary challenge against her.

Problem for the Dems is that the GOP still has control of majority of statewide office down there.

[wbrocks67]

I'm howling

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=28&v=j5JYjrKeHLY&feature=emb_logo

[wbrocks67]

McSally still trying to lose out here

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1258755505440382976

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Republicans have really scrwered up on this race. McSally just lost a senate race, and yet they decided to appoint her to the vacant senate seat. AZ likes moderates and McSally isn't even trying or pertending to be a moderate like Collins. Democrats scored a strong recruit in Kelly, and he leads by 8 points in the rcp average, which is insane for a state where Ds are usually underestimated in the polling on election day. Some of those were decent polls, others seemed a bit strange, and Kelly will probably win by like 4 or so, but this should've been a tossup race, not a lean D race like most people are begginning to call it. Even Sabato, which usually doesn't like to call flips early on has already moved this race to lean D. McSally could still win if Trump does well in AZ, or if a scandal comes out about Kelly, but this race is begginning to look like more and more of a sure thing for Democrats by the day. McSally is clearly desperate to stir up media attention, and teh fact that she had to use her own campaign manager as an AZ citizen in one of her ads is just sad. Lean D for now, could very well move to likely D on election day. Sinema never lead McSally bu this mucg in the RCP average so I'm really curious to see how much Kelly wins by

[We Live in Black and White]

Jesus Horatio Roosevelt Christ.

Safe D. 🤦

[Upstater]

Martha McSally is a source of constant entertainment.

[QAnonKelly]

Who’s the more comically incompetent appointed senator that’s going to lose this year: McSally or Loeffler?

[Upstater]

Who’s the more comically incompetent appointed senator that’s going to lose this year: McSally or Loeffler?

Loeffler is slightly more comical given the fact of how bad she's messed up in such a short period of time.

[QAnonKelly]

Who’s the more comically incompetent appointed senator that’s going to lose this year: McSally or Loeffler?

Loeffler is slightly more comical given the fact of how bad she's messed up in such a short period of time.

I agree. Takes a special mind of incompetent to screw up so badly within three weeks of being sworn in.

[MarkD]

The Republicans have really scrwered up on this race. McSally just lost a senate race, and yet they decided to appoint her to the vacant senate seat. AZ likes moderates and McSally isn't even trying or pertending to be a moderate like Collins. Democrats scored a strong recruit in Kelly, and he leads by 8 points in the rcp average, which is insane for a state where Ds are usually underestimated in the polling on election day. Some of those were decent polls, others seemed a bit strange, and Kelly will probably win by like 4 or so, but this should've been a tossup race, not a lean D race like most people are begginning to call it. Even Sabato, which usually doesn't like to call flips early on has already moved this race to lean D. McSally could still win if Trump does well in AZ, or if a scandal comes out about Kelly, but this race is begginning to look like more and more of a sure thing for Democrats by the day. McSally is clearly desperate to stir up media attention, and teh fact that she had to use her own campaign manager as an AZ citizen in one of her ads is just sad. Lean D for now, could very well move to likely D on election day. Sinema never lead McSally bu this mucg in the RCP average so I'm really curious to see how much Kelly wins by

McSally may not be exactly like Collins, but she IS a moderate, more so than the late John McCain. Her voting record is a bit closer to the center than McCain's was. Here are McSally's approval ratings from the American Conservative Union so far, starting from when she was in the House:
2015 - 58%
2016 - 72%
2017 - 85%
2018 - 84%
And her only full year in the Senate so far:
2019 - 68%

Be that as it may, I will call the race Tilt D.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Republicans have really scrwered up on this race. McSally just lost a senate race, and yet they decided to appoint her to the vacant senate seat. AZ likes moderates and McSally isn't even trying or pertending to be a moderate like Collins. Democrats scored a strong recruit in Kelly, and he leads by 8 points in the rcp average, which is insane for a state where Ds are usually underestimated in the polling on election day. Some of those were decent polls, others seemed a bit strange, and Kelly will probably win by like 4 or so, but this should've been a tossup race, not a lean D race like most people are begginning to call it. Even Sabato, which usually doesn't like to call flips early on has already moved this race to lean D. McSally could still win if Trump does well in AZ, or if a scandal comes out about Kelly, but this race is begginning to look like more and more of a sure thing for Democrats by the day. McSally is clearly desperate to stir up media attention, and teh fact that she had to use her own campaign manager as an AZ citizen in one of her ads is just sad. Lean D for now, could very well move to likely D on election day. Sinema never lead McSally bu this mucg in the RCP average so I'm really curious to see how much Kelly wins by

McSally may not be exactly like Collins, but she IS a moderate, more so than the late John McCain. Her voting record is a bit closer to the center than McCain's was. Here are McSally's approval ratings from the American Conservative Union so far, starting from when she was in the House:
2015 - 58%
2016 - 72%
2017 - 85%
2018 - 84%
And her only full year in the Senate so far:
2019 - 68%

Be that as it may, I will call the race Tilt D.

Many of these ratings from these organizations can be weird or flawed, and don't always reflect teh characetr of the person. Caling CNN a liberal hack isn't a vote, but it shows how she views the otehr side. She's tying herself to Trump as much as possible, whereas McCain kept his distance from Trump. Being conservative isn't the same as being loyal to your party, or being a partisan. I would consider Manchin to be a conservative. Furthermore, according to the American Conservative Union, Boozman, Moran, McConnel, Graham, and Capito all have lower scores than her. Graham may have voted for both of Obama's SC picks but he comes off as being a huge Trump ally and a partisan and not moderate. Same can be said for McConnel. Voting records don't fully reflected a person's characeter or how they come off as.

[Calthrina950]

The Republicans have really scrwered up on this race. McSally just lost a senate race, and yet they decided to appoint her to the vacant senate seat. AZ likes moderates and McSally isn't even trying or pertending to be a moderate like Collins. Democrats scored a strong recruit in Kelly, and he leads by 8 points in the rcp average, which is insane for a state where Ds are usually underestimated in the polling on election day. Some of those were decent polls, others seemed a bit strange, and Kelly will probably win by like 4 or so, but this should've been a tossup race, not a lean D race like most people are begginning to call it. Even Sabato, which usually doesn't like to call flips early on has already moved this race to lean D. McSally could still win if Trump does well in AZ, or if a scandal comes out about Kelly, but this race is begginning to look like more and more of a sure thing for Democrats by the day. McSally is clearly desperate to stir up media attention, and teh fact that she had to use her own campaign manager as an AZ citizen in one of her ads is just sad. Lean D for now, could very well move to likely D on election day. Sinema never lead McSally bu this mucg in the RCP average so I'm really curious to see how much Kelly wins by

McSally may not be exactly like Collins, but she IS a moderate, more so than the late John McCain. Her voting record is a bit closer to the center than McCain's was. Here are McSally's approval ratings from the American Conservative Union so far, starting from when she was in the House:
2015 - 58%
2016 - 72%
2017 - 85%
2018 - 84%
And her only full year in the Senate so far:
2019 - 68%

Be that as it may, I will call the race Tilt D.

Many of these ratings from these organizations can be weird or flawed, and don't always reflect teh characetr of the person. Caling CNN a liberal hack isn't a vote, but it shows how she views the otehr side. She's tying herself to Trump as much as possible, whereas McCain kept his distance from Trump. Being conservative isn't the same as being loyal to your party, or being a partisan. I would consider Manchin to be a conservative. Furthermore, according to the American Conservative Union, Boozman, Moran, McConnel, Graham, and Capito all have lower scores than her. Graham may have voted for both of Obama's SC picks but he comes off as being a huge Trump ally and a partisan and not moderate. Same can be said for McConnel. Voting records don't fully reflected a person's characeter or how they come off as.

Ironically enough, as you know, Graham was originally a Trump skeptic. He's had a complete turn in his viewpoints these past few years. And Martha McSally has turned herself into a staunch Trump ally, after previously being known (prior to 2017), as a moderate, pragmatic Republican.

[MarkD]

The Republicans have really scrwered up on this race. McSally just lost a senate race, and yet they decided to appoint her to the vacant senate seat. AZ likes moderates and McSally isn't even trying or pertending to be a moderate like Collins. Democrats scored a strong recruit in Kelly, and he leads by 8 points in the rcp average, which is insane for a state where Ds are usually underestimated in the polling on election day. Some of those were decent polls, others seemed a bit strange, and Kelly will probably win by like 4 or so, but this should've been a tossup race, not a lean D race like most people are begginning to call it. Even Sabato, which usually doesn't like to call flips early on has already moved this race to lean D. McSally could still win if Trump does well in AZ, or if a scandal comes out about Kelly, but this race is begginning to look like more and more of a sure thing for Democrats by the day. McSally is clearly desperate to stir up media attention, and teh fact that she had to use her own campaign manager as an AZ citizen in one of her ads is just sad. Lean D for now, could very well move to likely D on election day. Sinema never lead McSally bu this mucg in the RCP average so I'm really curious to see how much Kelly wins by

McSally may not be exactly like Collins, but she IS a moderate, more so than the late John McCain. Her voting record is a bit closer to the center than McCain's was. Here are McSally's approval ratings from the American Conservative Union so far, starting from when she was in the House:
2015 - 58%
2016 - 72%
2017 - 85%
2018 - 84%
And her only full year in the Senate so far:
2019 - 68%

Be that as it may, I will call the race Tilt D.

Many of these ratings from these organizations can be weird or flawed, and don't always reflect teh characetr of the person. Caling CNN a liberal hack isn't a vote, but it shows how she views the otehr side. She's tying herself to Trump as much as possible, whereas McCain kept his distance from Trump. Being conservative isn't the same as being loyal to your party, or being a partisan. I would consider Manchin to be a conservative. Furthermore, according to the American Conservative Union, Boozman, Moran, McConnel, Graham, and Capito all have lower scores than her. Graham may have voted for both of Obama's SC picks but he comes off as being a huge Trump ally and a partisan and not moderate. Same can be said for McConnel. Voting records don't fully reflected a person's characeter or how they come off as.

There's nothing "weird" about the ratings from American Conservative Union and Americans for Democratic Action. They may be somewhat "flawed" in that the ratings are only based on how the lawmaker voted in the floor of their chamber and they do not take into account the work that the lawmaker does in committee. I think it's irrelevant that a lawmaker like McSally says negative things about the biases of mainstream media, and "how they come off" -- whatever that means -- is an entirely subjective thing that is entirely up to you and I to judge according to our different tastes. I think the ratings of ACU and ADA are an effective way to objectively describe the ideology of a lawmaker, though. That was why I used ADA scores to start a conversation with other Talk Elections folk about what would they describe Biden's ideology as. I did that here.

[Pollster]

Trump advisers warn McSally is in trouble, sounded alarm to McConnell today in White House

[Landslide Lyndon]

Trump advisers warn McSally is in trouble, sounded alarm to McConnell today in White House

Yeah, she is vulnerable because she embraced Trump more tightly than a boa constrictor.