Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Gass3268]

Here are the next 10 cities/villages:

11. West Allis (Milwaukee - 59,934 - City)
Senate - 57.49%-42.21% - Margin: 15.27% - Swing: 12.15%
Governor - 51.06%-46.29% - Margin: 4.77% - Swing - 14.03% - Turnout: +6.43%

12. La Crosse (La Crosse - 51,834 - City)
Senate - 71.31%-28.69% - Margin: 42.61% - Swing - 15.69%
Governor - 65.70%-31.29% - Margin: 34.41% - Swing - 11.69% - Turnout +23.40%

13. Sheboygan (Sheboygan - 48,329 - City)
Senate - 58.38%-41.45% - Margin: 16.93% - Swing: 4.26%
Governor - 51.68%-46.04% - Margin: 5.64% - Swing: 9.07% - Turnout: +8.32%

14. Wauwatosa (Milwaukee - 48,277 - City)
Senate - 62.64%-37.15% - Margin: 25.48% - Swing: 25.67%
Governor - 57.27%-41.10% - Margin: 16.17% - Swing: 20.84% - Turnout: +10.45%

15. Fond du Lac (Fond du Lac - 42,809 - City)
Senate - 50.39%-49.53% - Margin: 0.86% - Swing: 2.54%
Governor - 44.15%-53.88% - Margin: -9.73% - Swing: 5.56% - Turnout: +6.94%

16. New Berlin (Waukesha - 39,740 - City)
Senate - 40.70%-59.16% - Margin: -18.46% - Swing: 11.92%
Governor - 34.57%-64.15% - Margin: -29.58% - Swing: 11.83% - Turnout: +7.60%

17. Wausau (Marathon - 38,739 - City)
Senate - 57.30%-42.56% - Margin: 14.74% - Swing: 4.54%
Governor - 49.68%-47.70% - Margin: 1.98% - Swing: 5.39% - Turnout: +11.24%

18. Brookfield (Waukesha - 38,739 - City)
Senate - 40.32%-59.59% - Margin: -19.27% - Swing: 18.80%
Governor - 35.54%-63.32% - Margin: 27.79% - Swing: 17.77% - Turnout: +8.02%

19. Menomonee Falls (Waukesha - 37,443 - Village)
Senate - 42.41%-57.45% - Margin: -15.04% - Swing: 14.70%
Governor - 35.44%-63.22% - Margin: -27.77% - Swing: 13.18% - Turnout: +10.52%

20. Greenfield (Milwaukee - 36,827 - City)
Senate - 53.73%-46.11% - Margin: 7.62% - Swing - 10.67%
Governor - 46.96%-51.08% - Margin: -4.11% - Swing: 10.94% - Turnout: +11.34%

I grew up in Wauwatosa, and it used to be pretty Republican. I know it voted for Bush and Obama twice, but didn't it also vote for Walker three times? Looks like Tosa is starting to vote like the North Shore suburbs.

Wauwatosa is were Walker got his start in the Wisconsin State Assembly. Funny thing is WI-14, the only seat that Democrats gained this year, was Walker's seat. Pretty sure he won it his three prior times.

[Gass3268]

Here is 21-30:

21. Beloit (Rock - 36,773 - City)
Senate - 68.50%-31.38% - Margin: 37.12% - Swing: 0.61%
Governor - 63.12%-33.50% - Margin: 29.63% - Swing: 6.83% - Turnout: +27.11%

22. Oak Creek (Milwaukee - 36,354 - City)
Senate - 50.55%-49.26% - Margin: 1.29% - Swing: 10.27%
Governor - 44.06%-54.24% - Margin: -10.18% - Swing: 11.52% - Turnout: +14.96%

23. Franklin (Milwaukee - 36,143 - City)
Senate - 46.30%-53.62% - Margin: -7.32% - Swing: 11.15%
Governor - 39.20%-59.43% - Margin: -20.24% - Swing: 10.69% - Turnout: +12.35%

24. Sun Prairie (Dane - 32,894 - City)
Senate - 71.16%-28.65% - Margin: 42.51% - Swing: 21.01%
Governor -  67.88%-30.11% - Margin: 37.77% - Swing: 16.68% - Turnout: +17.75%

25. Manitowoc (Manitowoc - 32,697 - City)
Senate - 52.90%-47.01% - Margin: 5.89% - Swing: -1.19%
Governor - 44.00%-53.74% - Margin: -9.74% - Swing: 2.95% - Turnout: 4.09%

26. West Bend (Washington - 31,596 - City)
Senate - 39.97%-60.03% - Margin: -20.05% - Swing: 6.02%
Governor - 32.74%-65.58% - Margin: -32.84% - Swing: 8.41% - Turnout: 5.98%

27. Fitchburg (Dane - 29,485 - City)
Senate - 78.77%-21.09% - Margin: 57.69% - Swing: 20.67% (Turnout actually higher than 2012)
Governor - 76.28%-22.15% - Margin: 54.14% - Swing: 14.59% - Turnout: 20.56%

28. Mount Pleasant (Racine - 26,525 - Village)
Senate - 52.56%-47.25% - Margin: 5.31% - Swing: 4.19%
Governor - 46.63%-51.62% - Margin: -4.99% - Swing: 4.56% - Turnout: 12.08%

29. Stevens Point (Portage - 26,293 - City)
Senate - 67.80%-31.97% - Margin: 35.83% - Swing: 9.41%
Governor - 62.66%-33.65% - Margin: 29.02% - Swing: 10.09% - Turnout: 15.53%

30. Superior (Douglas - 26,194 - City)
Senate - 67.65%-32.30% - Margin: 35.35% - Swing: -2.67%
Governor - 63.35%-33.71% - Margin: 29.64% - Swing: -1.08% - Turnout: 22.42%

[Scottholes 2.0]

Very sad. Urban-rural divide will get worse with ignorance like this.

https://twitter.com/repvos/status/1072312325032603648

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Very sad. Urban-rural divide will get worse with ignorance like this.

https://twitter.com/repvos/status/1072312325032603648

This is identity politics. Full stop.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Very sad. Urban-rural divide will get worse with ignorance like this.

https://twitter.com/repvos/status/1072312325032603648

So Robin is saying more or less “black people’s votes don’t count”?

[Gass3268]

Very sad. Urban-rural divide will get worse with ignorance like this.

https://twitter.com/repvos/status/1072312325032603648

So Robin is say more or less “black people’s votes don’t count”?

In the case of the City of Milwaukee, yes. However, there aren't a lot of black people in Dane County (~5%). There are more Asians and Hispanics in Dane County (~6% for each group).

[Scottholes 2.0]

Walker suggested that he will sign the lame-duck bills, claiming that Evers will still have some of the strongest gubernatorial powers in the country. This man is truly pathetic.

https://wkow.com/news/top-stories/2018/12/11/walker-says-wisconsin-governor-powers-will-remain-strong/

[Xing]

Very sad. Urban-rural divide will get worse with ignorance like this.

https://twitter.com/repvos/status/1072312325032603648

This is identity politics. Full stop.

Republicans love identity politics when it's white male grievance.

[MasterJedi]

Very sad. Urban-rural divide will get worse with ignorance like this.

https://twitter.com/repvos/status/1072312325032603648

This is identity politics. Full stop.

Republicans love identity politics when it's white male grievance.

How dare more people want to live in civilization and not out in the boonies or in the burbs where you have to drive far distances for everything.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Walker suggested that he will sign the lame-duck bills, claiming that Evers will still have some of the strongest gubernatorial powers in the country. This man is truly pathetic.

https://wkow.com/news/top-stories/2018/12/11/walker-says-wisconsin-governor-powers-will-remain-strong

Of course he'll sign it.

See you in Court, WIGOP.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Here are the next 10 cities/villages:

11. West Allis (Milwaukee - 59,934 - City)
Senate - 57.49%-42.21% - Margin: 15.27% - Swing: 12.15%
Governor - 51.06%-46.29% - Margin: 4.77% - Swing - 14.03% - Turnout: +6.43%

12. La Crosse (La Crosse - 51,834 - City)
Senate - 71.31%-28.69% - Margin: 42.61% - Swing - 15.69%
Governor - 65.70%-31.29% - Margin: 34.41% - Swing - 11.69% - Turnout +23.40%

13. Sheboygan (Sheboygan - 48,329 - City)
Senate - 58.38%-41.45% - Margin: 16.93% - Swing: 4.26%
Governor - 51.68%-46.04% - Margin: 5.64% - Swing: 9.07% - Turnout: +8.32%

14. Wauwatosa (Milwaukee - 48,277 - City)
Senate - 62.64%-37.15% - Margin: 25.48% - Swing: 25.67%
Governor - 57.27%-41.10% - Margin: 16.17% - Swing: 20.84% - Turnout: +10.45%

15. Fond du Lac (Fond du Lac - 42,809 - City)
Senate - 50.39%-49.53% - Margin: 0.86% - Swing: 2.54%
Governor - 44.15%-53.88% - Margin: -9.73% - Swing: 5.56% - Turnout: +6.94%

16. New Berlin (Waukesha - 39,740 - City)
Senate - 40.70%-59.16% - Margin: -18.46% - Swing: 11.92%
Governor - 34.57%-64.15% - Margin: -29.58% - Swing: 11.83% - Turnout: +7.60%

17. Wausau (Marathon - 38,739 - City)
Senate - 57.30%-42.56% - Margin: 14.74% - Swing: 4.54%
Governor - 49.68%-47.70% - Margin: 1.98% - Swing: 5.39% - Turnout: +11.24%

18. Brookfield (Waukesha - 38,739 - City)
Senate - 40.32%-59.59% - Margin: -19.27% - Swing: 18.80%
Governor - 35.54%-63.32% - Margin: 27.79% - Swing: 17.77% - Turnout: +8.02%

19. Menomonee Falls (Waukesha - 37,443 - Village)
Senate - 42.41%-57.45% - Margin: -15.04% - Swing: 14.70%
Governor - 35.44%-63.22% - Margin: -27.77% - Swing: 13.18% - Turnout: +10.52%

20. Greenfield (Milwaukee - 36,827 - City)
Senate - 53.73%-46.11% - Margin: 7.62% - Swing - 10.67%
Governor - 46.96%-51.08% - Margin: -4.11% - Swing: 10.94% - Turnout: +11.34%

I grew up in Wauwatosa, and it used to be pretty Republican. I know it voted for Bush and Obama twice, but didn't it also vote for Walker three times? Looks like Tosa is starting to vote like the North Shore suburbs.

It's worth noting that in 2008, Wauwatosa and West Allis voted for Obama by nearly the same margin while he was romping throughout the state, 52.6-46.4 and 52.5-45.9 respectively. Evers significantly outperformed Obama's Wauwatosa margins, but West Allis has remained essentially the same. I wonder if Democrats will eventually be able to get double digits margins in West Allis as well.

[Wiz in Wis]

Here are the next 10 cities/villages:

11. West Allis (Milwaukee - 59,934 - City)
Senate - 57.49%-42.21% - Margin: 15.27% - Swing: 12.15%
Governor - 51.06%-46.29% - Margin: 4.77% - Swing - 14.03% - Turnout: +6.43%

12. La Crosse (La Crosse - 51,834 - City)
Senate - 71.31%-28.69% - Margin: 42.61% - Swing - 15.69%
Governor - 65.70%-31.29% - Margin: 34.41% - Swing - 11.69% - Turnout +23.40%

13. Sheboygan (Sheboygan - 48,329 - City)
Senate - 58.38%-41.45% - Margin: 16.93% - Swing: 4.26%
Governor - 51.68%-46.04% - Margin: 5.64% - Swing: 9.07% - Turnout: +8.32%

14. Wauwatosa (Milwaukee - 48,277 - City)
Senate - 62.64%-37.15% - Margin: 25.48% - Swing: 25.67%
Governor - 57.27%-41.10% - Margin: 16.17% - Swing: 20.84% - Turnout: +10.45%

15. Fond du Lac (Fond du Lac - 42,809 - City)
Senate - 50.39%-49.53% - Margin: 0.86% - Swing: 2.54%
Governor - 44.15%-53.88% - Margin: -9.73% - Swing: 5.56% - Turnout: +6.94%

16. New Berlin (Waukesha - 39,740 - City)
Senate - 40.70%-59.16% - Margin: -18.46% - Swing: 11.92%
Governor - 34.57%-64.15% - Margin: -29.58% - Swing: 11.83% - Turnout: +7.60%

17. Wausau (Marathon - 38,739 - City)
Senate - 57.30%-42.56% - Margin: 14.74% - Swing: 4.54%
Governor - 49.68%-47.70% - Margin: 1.98% - Swing: 5.39% - Turnout: +11.24%

18. Brookfield (Waukesha - 38,739 - City)
Senate - 40.32%-59.59% - Margin: -19.27% - Swing: 18.80%
Governor - 35.54%-63.32% - Margin: 27.79% - Swing: 17.77% - Turnout: +8.02%

19. Menomonee Falls (Waukesha - 37,443 - Village)
Senate - 42.41%-57.45% - Margin: -15.04% - Swing: 14.70%
Governor - 35.44%-63.22% - Margin: -27.77% - Swing: 13.18% - Turnout: +10.52%

20. Greenfield (Milwaukee - 36,827 - City)
Senate - 53.73%-46.11% - Margin: 7.62% - Swing - 10.67%
Governor - 46.96%-51.08% - Margin: -4.11% - Swing: 10.94% - Turnout: +11.34%

I grew up in Wauwatosa, and it used to be pretty Republican. I know it voted for Bush and Obama twice, but didn't it also vote for Walker three times? Looks like Tosa is starting to vote like the North Shore suburbs.

It's worth noting that in 2008, Wauwatosa and West Allis voted for Obama by nearly the same margin while he was romping throughout the state, 52.6-46.4 and 52.5-45.9 respectively. Evers significantly outperformed Obama's Wauwatosa margins, but West Allis has remained essentially the same. I wonder if Democrats will eventually be able to get double digits margins in West Allis as well.

West Allis is a much more working class suburb than Wauwatosa.

[Pollster]

Are we going to see some recall attempts next year based on these power grabs (genuine question, I'm not too familiar with Wisconsin electoral law)?

[TJ in Oregon]

Are we going to see some recall attempts next year based on these power grabs (genuine question, I'm not too familiar with Wisconsin electoral law)?

I doubt it, considering how the last recall attempts turned out. Yes, the Dems picked up two senate seats that way, but on the whole the movement backfired on them. I don't think they'll want to try it again.

[Gass3268]

Are we going to see some recall attempts next year based on these power grabs (genuine question, I'm not too familiar with Wisconsin electoral law)?

I doubt it, considering how the last recall attempts turned out. Yes, the Dems picked up two senate seats that way, but on the whole the movement backfired on them. I don't think they'll want to try it again.

And really only one stuck (SD-32), funny enough she 's now the Senate Minority Leader. Also of the seats eligible for recall, there really aren't that many of the even number seats that are competative. Maybe they could try SD-08 or SD-24, but both would be extremely difficult for different reasons.

[Gass3268]

Working on some historical maps. Can anyone guess what this is a map of?

[ElectionsGuy]

Working on some historical maps. Can anyone guess what this is a map of?

1850's governor? Very weird seeing Washington and Ozaukee dark red, even though they were really rural back then.

[Scottholes 2.0]

It's just in! Scott Walker is expected to sign the bills weakening Evers' power:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/14/scott-walker-lame-duck-bills-friday-1064752

[Wiz in Wis]

So, my unpopular opinion is that the lame duck isn't that big a deal, but will make the GOP look like losers and whiners anyways.

The early voting law probably will get overturned, and even if it doesn't, that may not hurt the Dems.

The WEDC and lawsuit bills are really inside baseball and may fail in court too. Very little practical outcomes on that aside from GOP patting itself on the back for reintroducing unpopular topics like preexisting conditions.

The only really crappy law, moving the election, never passed, so no biggie there.

[Gass3268]

Working on some historical maps. Can anyone guess what this is a map of?

1850's governor? Very weird seeing Washington and Ozaukee dark red, even though they were really rural back then.

Wrong office, but your only off by a decade for the year.

[Scottholes 2.0]

So, my unpopular opinion is that the lame duck isn't that big a deal, but will make the GOP look like losers and whiners anyways.

The early voting law probably will get overturned, and even if it doesn't, that may not hurt the Dems.

The WEDC and lawsuit bills are really inside baseball and may fail in court too. Very little practical outcomes on that aside from GOP patting itself on the back for reintroducing unpopular topics like preexisting conditions.

The only really crappy law, moving the election, never passed, so no biggie there.

That's a good way to look at it!

[Gass3268]

Working on some historical maps. Can anyone guess what this is a map of?

1850's governor? Very weird seeing Washington and Ozaukee dark red, even though they were really rural back then.

Wrong office, but your only off by a decade for the year.

Here is the prior election. Some counties are essentially counties in name only. Some did not provide vote totals, while others were for almost all maters extensions of neighboring counties. Hopefully this can provide another clue as to what the other map is showing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Either 1860 Presidential or 1861 Senate.  I think the key is that Ashland County exists in the map for this election, but not the previous one.

[Gass3268]

Either 1860 Presidential or 1861 Senate.  I think the key is that Ashland County exists in the map for this election, but not the previous one.

You got it! It was the 1860 Presidential Election. Here is Lincoln's reelection map in Wisconsin:



You can see the Democratic strength among the German immigrants who settled along the lakeshore. As a group they were against the war and very much against the draft. You can also see some of the remains of the Democratic strength in the southwest part of the state, which was originally settled by miners from Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia who came to mine lead. The Republican strength was in the southeast row of counties from Kenosha/Racine to Rock. This area was heavily settled by moralist Yankees from New England and New York. I have yet to find the precise data, but this area big supporters of the Free Soil Party during the 1848 election and to a lesser extent in 1852. Another area of Republican strength came from the growing Scandinavian immigrant communities in the west central part of the state. 

[Scottholes 2.0]

They're already taking action!

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/groups-to-ask-federal-judge-to-quash-wisconsin-s-new/article_ab01e6ee-65e4-5cbc-aa53-901285f9b1f3.html