Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

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If Dane County continues to deliver high margins for democrats and grows at a fast rate, democrats will probably always be competitive in Wisconsin. I've never understand why the rural areas of Dane County voted the way it did, though.

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If Dane County continues to deliver high margins for democrats and grows at a fast rate, democrats will probably always be competitive in Wisconsin. I've never understand why the rural areas of Dane County voted the way it did, though.

Because there's a lot of shared identity and commuters as well.

True, but it's just interesting how Waukesha County delivered 72 percent for Scott Walker while Dane County delivered 70 percent for Mary Burke, yet both counties are only 30 miles apart. WI is very politically polarized, in my opinion, and the gerrymandering has only exacerbated the polarization.

Dane County does rank high for out-of-state migration. I read an article a long time ago which indicated that more than 40 percent of new residents in Dane came from other states, most of whom were from Cook County. The WOW counties were mostly built off of white flight, so perhaps maybe that could effect the politics?

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I don't think Tony Evers is the best person to defeat Walker. I think Mike McCabe is. He can appeal to swing voters better than Evers.

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Oops, sorry for taking so long.

The big issues that I see is this is a state very divided. I grew up in rural Minnesota, and while Minnesota's divide between the Twin Cities and greater MN is different than the urban/rural divide in Wisconsin, I still understand it, much more so than other urban folks seem to, at any rate. So taking that into consideration, Vinehout is a very unique candidate.

Another big consideration is that this state is willing to vote either party, if they feel their needs will be met by that candidate. See all the swinging of the past while.


She is a former dairy farmer who goes deer hunting. This is huge in Wisconsin because one of the scare tactics here is "they're going to take our guns!" even though most Democrats support common sense gun laws, that's easily switched into "taking the guns!" With Vinehout, that argument is a non-starter. In addition, though she is in state government currently, she is still seen as an "outsider," especially because she is not from an urban area and is still very grounded in her background. This is where the urban/rural divide is important. Greater Wisconsin absolutely detests anyone seen as Madisonian. Milwaukee is almost as bad, but still better than a bureaucrat.

This is where Vinehout shines. Of the remaining candidates, she has experience in government, but not the sort that makes her seem like an insider or bureaucrat.

Evers did well in state-wide elections for a very specific role where one wants a very experienced individual. Greater Wisconsin voters are going to be /pissed/ that he decided to jump in partisan politics and they're going to distrust him because he is an experienced bureaucrat. While he may not be from Madison, his lack of connections and ties outside of the more urban areas make it seem like he is just another Madison politicker. He will do well in Madison and Milwaukee, but as Walker's most recent election show, that alone isn't enough, and with Trump stirring up animosity against "the swamp," aka "the establishment," I think Walker will just very narrowly beat Evers.

Mitchell, who I love, if it weren't for voter ID scaring away voters, could possibly turn out enough folks in Milwaukee and Madison to counter the rest of the state, but with voter ID being the way it is, and Trump feeding racists all kinds of cookies, he just won't be able to get enough votes to counter Walker. Racism does him in and it sucks because he's actually who I'd most want in the role.

McCabe, like Vinehout, does have rural appeal, but I just don't think he has enough name recognition or experience to grab the attention of voters. He could do okay, but I honestly can't see him taking the primary over Mitchell or Evers even with a smaller group of candidates.

Anyway, the rural/urban divide is why I think Vinehout is uniquely situated to counter Walker. She appeals to the rural parts of the state and could garner independent votes, or at least votes of moderate folks who are tired of Walker moreso than the other options.

In addition, though she can connect with rural voters, she has the progressive bonafides to appeal to urban voters, too. She also has name recognition because she has sponsored bills that folks in Madison like. I'm not as sure about how she would do in Milwaukee, but I don't see her doing much worse than Evers there against Walker.

Anyway, it all comes down to who can actually challenge Walker, and while I like Evers and love Mitchell, I don't think either of them can be a guaranteed win against Walker. Vinehout is the only one, in my opinion, with enough appeal to the very different sets of voters in the state to actually counter Walker. The only other way to knock him out would be a state-level equivalent of Obama, and there just seems to be a dearth of charismatic Democratic candidates in Wisconsin.

All that said, with how primaries work and his name recognition, I'm pretty sure Evers has the nomination in the bag. I feel a race between him and Walker would be very, very close and he could squeak out a win, but it makes me very uncomfortable and nervous. I would feel much more secure with Vinehout.

I think people underrestimate Walker's vulnerability for this election. I don't think Vinehout has a chance against Walker. I was going to vote for McCabe, but Evers seems more experienced and knowledgeable, so I think I'll be voting for him. I dom't umderstand why prople still think Walker has a good chance of winning, even after a Democrat won a statewide race recently and two senate seats have been flipped in heavy Trump districts.

[Scottholes 2.0]

And I disagree with you. The Marquette Poll also indicates that Evers is leading Walker by a small margin. I rest my case: Walker is more vulnerable than he was in the previous three elections, and Tammy Baldwin IS leading.

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I still rest my case and assert that Walker is more vulnerable than he was during the preceding elections. He's never been very popular anyway. It is possible for Evers (although I'm not a huge fan of him) to beat Walker, but it is also possible for Walker to win. We have the next few months to see how this race plays out with both of their campaigns. Some people here on the Atlas Forum have this race as Lean D, for a good reason.

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Walker is already trying to redefine Tony Evers by putting out an ad accusing him of not revoking a teacher's license to viewing pornography. I REALLY hope voters do not fall for this lie!

Hopefully we see results like this in November:

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Walker is already trying to redefine Tony Evers by putting out an ad accusing him of not revoking a teacher's license to viewing pornography. I REALLY hope voters do not fall for this lie!

Hopefully we see results like this in November:

I thought for sure Brown, Outagamie, and St. Croix counties would flip.

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Now the Kochs are rushing to support Walker AGAIN to help him win and crash our blue wave. Argh!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/21/kochs-fund-1point8-million-ads-for-wisconsins-walker-ahead-of-midterms.html

[Scottholes 2.0]

Now the Kochs are rushing to support Walker AGAIN to help him win and crash our blue wave. Argh!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/21/kochs-fund-1point8-million-ads-for-wisconsins-walker-ahead-of-midterms.html

Lean -> Likely R at this point unless Marquette shows Evers up in double digits. Wisconsin has always been a Koch-influenced state.

I wouldn't go that far, though. It didn't work for Michael Screnock.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I rate this race as a pure tossup as well, but Walker and WI Republicans have raised 7 million dollars thus far in advertising (much more than Evers). I think Walker will become increasingly less vulnerable up until Election Day, but that's just me! I can't wait until tomorrow's Marquette poll!

[Scottholes 2.0]

Agreed on this being a tossup race. The interesting part about this race is that it's the first in Wisconsin since 2006 with both the Governor and Senator on the ballot; in 2006, incumbent Dem Senator Kohl won re-election by a landslide (38 pts) while incumbent Dem Governor Doyle won his race by seven points.

Unlike 2006, I severely doubt there will be many Baldwin-Walker voters, and with polls consistently showing Baldwin with healthy leads over Vukmir, I think the race is slowly swaying in Evers's favor. Had Nicholson won the GOP primary, people might've associated the WI Republican ticket with an anti-establishment Trumpist agenda (which would've excited more conservative-leaning voters), but Vukmir screams cold establishment and won't excite voters in the state at all. Republicans will vote for Walker, but with this being his fourth election, there are bound to be many past voters who aren't too excited to vote for him a fourth time.

You make an extremely valid point, but Wisconsin could very well go the way Michigan did in the 2014 elections and reelect a GOP governor (Rick Snyder) and elect a D senator (Gary Peters) on the same ballot. Again, let's hope not!

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Agreed on this being a tossup race. The interesting part about this race is that it's the first in Wisconsin since 2006 with both the Governor and Senator on the ballot; in 2006, incumbent Dem Senator Kohl won re-election by a landslide (38 pts) while incumbent Dem Governor Doyle won his race by seven points.

Unlike 2006, I severely doubt there will be many Baldwin-Walker voters, and with polls consistently showing Baldwin with healthy leads over Vukmir, I think the race is slowly swaying in Evers's favor. Had Nicholson won the GOP primary, people might've associated the WI Republican ticket with an anti-establishment Trumpist agenda (which would've excited more conservative-leaning voters), but Vukmir screams cold establishment and won't excite voters in the state at all. Republicans will vote for Walker, but with this being his fourth election, there are bound to be many past voters who aren't too excited to vote for him a fourth time.

How much do you think Baldwin would have to win by to drag Evers over the finish line?  We're talking barely dragging Evers...not by the 5-10 point average that Evers seems to have in these polls.

My guess is a greater than five-point win for Baldwin makes it very likely that Evers also wins. Unless Vukmir or Evers have a terrible, campaign-jolting scandal revealed, it's hard to imagine Baldwin winning by over five points while simultaneously seeing Walker win re-election.

Also, there won't be any third party candidates in the Senate election, making the Baldwin-Evers correlation even stronger.

Very true.

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If this is true, then I am so done with this race.

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I never thought the senate race between Baldwin and Vukmor would end up being a tie. It is NOT a good sign that Walker is leading Evers 46-44 among registered voters. Walker is going to win, so everyone can stop with their theories now.

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I recognize that this is an improvement from the last MU poll for Evers, but regardless of what the polls indicate, I honestly think Walker's going to win. He cheated the last three times and WI voters are not smart enough to see right through his schemes. Even Baldwin is getting in an increasingly tougher spot than I thought. The future is getting bleaker for us WI dems. I'll be moving to MN by 2020.

[Scottholes 2.0]

When will other polls be released? Marquette surveyed 45 percent Republicans and 43 percent Democrats. Doesn't seem that reliable, but, at the same time, scary.

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Don't overreact to this poll, guys. It's August. Polling will become more important in, like, October. For now, I'm going to keep looking at fundamentals, which is that Walker is an R running a D wave year in a polarized swing state. All signs point to liberals in WI being energized, and Walker's fandom in WOW isn't going to be enough to save him. He also has no President Boogeyman to run against, and Walker's strategy has always been to take the low road.

Signs all point to Walker losing, but don't take anything for granted yet. He's not Safe bc muh 3 times in 4 years, but it's not Titanium D bc muh Blue Wave. Tossup is a good ranking for this race.

You make some valid points. I agree.

To be fair, his MU poll rating did increase from two months ago. Evers and his campaign think this latest MU poll is a good sign of Democratic momentum in the state, so I guess I shouldn't be that worried if he and his team aren't. In fact Evers could be two points in the lead, which is quite likely since this poll is an obvious outlier, given that Walker is  leading 46 percent to Evers’ 44 percent, well within the margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

"Tony Evers clearly has the momentum in the opening days of the general election," said Evers' campaign manager Maggie Gau. "No matter what poll you look at, Tony has eliminated any advantage Walker has had."

Good points!

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Honestly, who cares about the conservative-skewed MU poll? F 'em!

And Dane County has gotten bluer in every election cycle and voted for Hillary at a wider margin than Obama. And its voting power increases every year as the population does. It has added 20k residents since 2014 (516k to 536k) when Scott Walker was reelected. It's a Democratic stronghold and always will be because it attracts college-educated transplants from all over the globe!

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Walker is trying to buy votes by convincing military vets to come to Wisconsin. They should stay away, once they would come and if he were to win they'd be hung out to dry.

The election is only two months away. Very few (if any) are going to have time to move to our state, so there won't be enough conservative veterans to outvote the Dems.

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WI is a weird state and the race can go either way as the Marquette Poll indicated. Evers isn't gonna run away with the race like Pritzker and Whitmer and Walz are.

Honestly, Marquette is just one poll.

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Evers will win...the state leg will flip...and progressive policies will be ushered in. Get ready for voting rights, medicaid expansion, etc...!

All of my family (all of whom are Independents) who voted for Walker three times is supporting Evers solely due to Walker's refusal to distance himself from Trump, and they live in the rural areas of the state. I just hope to God other Independents follow suit in this once progressive state!

[Scottholes 2.0]

Evers will win...the state leg will flip...and progressive policies will be ushered in. Get ready for voting rights, medicaid expansion, etc...!

All of my family (all of whom are Independents) who voted for Walker three times is supporting Evers solely due to Walker's refusal to distance himself from Trump, and they live in the rural areas of the state. I just hope to God other Independents follow suit in this once progressive state!

Wisconsin just can't afford all the extra spending to be brought in by Super Nintendo Evers. Vote Scott Walker in November. If he didn't restrict your ability to vote, that is.

Compared to the billions wasted hiring like 10 employees for an imaginary FoxxCON plant?

Walker is finished and Wisconsin will return to its rightful place as a progressive state.

It's not a lie if you believe it.

I believe it but I don't lie to myself like other posters on here. I'm a cold harsh realist...elections are 90% determined by national environment/fundamentals and not BS like campaign commercials, slogans, policy positions, etc...

Wisconsin is a strange state...its given us LaFollete while at the same time giving us McCarthy. It's always been a state of extremes but its time for the pendulum to swing in the other direction now and its going to swing hard to the left.

Agreed.

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When will the next poll come out for WI races?

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I gotta say, Evers is doing really well in the polls this election season, A LOT better than Mary Burke did when she was running against Walker. Walker has literally only led in ONE poll so far. I just hope Evers continues to slaughter him as polling becomes more important, like in October. He's going to win this race if he polls like this in October. Heck, if he continues to beat Walker in the polls in a month from now, this race should be consiered lean D.

Come on, Evers. You've got this!

And why does Cook Political still have this race as lean R yet has Baldwin's race as likely D when Walker's much more vulnerable than Baldwin?