Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Gass3268]

Yeah, if people from both parties can’t at least agree that the moves of the WI GOP, MI GOP, and NC GOP are out of line and blatantly self-serving attempts to avoid the will of the people, we’re never going to get anywhere. Of course, I’m sure many usual suspects will dodge the question by bringing up Menendez or someone from the Illinois Democratic Party to “prove” that “the Democrats are just as bad/way worse!!!” I get that we’re polarized, but we’re all screwed if we can’t acknowledge when our own party is giving the middle finger to their constituents to consolidate power.

The moves are heralded by the conservatives in the burbs here right now. It's to stop Evers "from bending us over and bleeding us dry" which would somehow happen with a Republican legislature? There's also the #ResistEvers meme right now going around heavily too.

Even though it was Evers ability to break the complete stranglehold in the burbs (Milwaukee, Ozaukee and Waukesha) as to why Walker lost.

[MasterJedi]

Yeah, if people from both parties can’t at least agree that the moves of the WI GOP, MI GOP, and NC GOP are out of line and blatantly self-serving attempts to avoid the will of the people, we’re never going to get anywhere. Of course, I’m sure many usual suspects will dodge the question by bringing up Menendez or someone from the Illinois Democratic Party to “prove” that “the Democrats are just as bad/way worse!!!” I get that we’re polarized, but we’re all screwed if we can’t acknowledge when our own party is giving the middle finger to their constituents to consolidate power.

The moves are heralded by the conservatives in the burbs here right now. It's to stop Evers "from bending us over and bleeding us dry" which would somehow happen with a Republican legislature? There's also the #ResistEvers meme right now going around heavily too.

Even though it was Evers ability to break the complete stranglehold in the burbs (Milwaukee, Ozaukee and Waukesha) as to why Walker lost.

You have to realize a lot of these people are those that live outside of Milwaukee county and refuse to ever go to the city because they will be "mugged, raped and shot" if they do. You'll also hear "I don't let my wife go east of hwy 100" as well quite often from this crowd.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well the one silver lining I've heard is the power grab legislation was somewhat watered down, and the provision allowing the legislature to hire attorneys to replace the AG if they disagree with the AG on a case was removed.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Yeah, if people from both parties can’t at least agree that the moves of the WI GOP, MI GOP, and NC GOP are out of line and blatantly self-serving attempts to avoid the will of the people, we’re never going to get anywhere. Of course, I’m sure many usual suspects will dodge the question by bringing up Menendez or someone from the Illinois Democratic Party to “prove” that “the Democrats are just as bad/way worse!!!” I get that we’re polarized, but we’re all screwed if we can’t acknowledge when our own party is giving the middle finger to their constituents to consolidate power.

The moves are heralded by the conservatives in the burbs here right now. It's to stop Evers "from bending us over and bleeding us dry" which would somehow happen with a Republican legislature? There's also the #ResistEvers meme right now going around heavily too.

Wisconsin has been very polarized under Walker, and it deeply saddens me how divides our state is. With a meme like that, I don't see how Evers will make it through his first term, let alone win a second one because WI Repubs don't want to give him a chance.

Meanwhile, Scott Walker keeps tweeting about Wisconsin's "booming economy", all while keeping the public in suspense as to whether or not he'll veto the lame-duck bill. He is truly convinced that he was good for WI's economy and should've won, which undermines the people of Wisconsin that he should be serving. He is so classless that he can't even allow Evers to have a peaceful transition into the governorship. This is very wrong and I hope voters hold him accountable when he tried to run for another political office. I am sick of him, and sadly he's probably never going to go away!

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1071180002702565378

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Governor's Race By Assembly District




*** mod note: fixed image size

Pitiful performance. Dems need to broaden their appeal if they want to have any relevance on the legislative level. 

[Dr. Arch]

Governor's Race By Assembly District




*** mod note: fixed image size

Pitiful performance. Dems need to broaden their appeal if they want to have any relevance on the legislative level. 

Democrats won 53% of the legislative vote, and Republicans still won 66% of the seats thanks to the gerrymander.

This state is currupt as hell.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Governor's Race By Assembly District




*** mod note: fixed image size

Pitiful performance. Dems need to broaden their appeal a non-gerrymandered map if they want to have any relevance on the legislative level. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Governor's Race By Assembly District




*** mod note: fixed image size

Pitiful performance. Dems need to broaden their appeal if they want to have any relevance on the legislative level. 

Democrats won 53% of the legislative vote, and Republicans still won 66% of the seats thanks to the gerrymander.

This state is currupt as hell.

A fair map would involve baconmandering Madison and Milawaukee. It's better to just reach out to the non-urban areas.

[Dr. Arch]

Governor's Race By Assembly District




*** mod note: fixed image size

Pitiful performance. Dems need to broaden their appeal if they want to have any relevance on the legislative level. 

Democrats won 53% of the legislative vote, and Republicans still won 66% of the seats thanks to the gerrymander.

This state is currupt as hell.

A fair map would involve baconmandering Madison and Milawaukee. It's better to just reach out to the non-urban areas.

Uh no, it wouldn't. See Wisconsin pre-2010 redistricting.

[Gass3268]

I'm going to post the results by the State Senate districts, if a mod want's to resize them after I post them (I never can do it right), I would greatly appreciate that.

[Gass3268]

Governor's Race By Senate District:

[Gass3268]

Senate Race By Senate District:

[Antonio the Sixth]

The worst thing about these gerrymanders is that they don't look too bad to the untrained eye. You have to squint to see all the cities that they conveniently cracked or packed.

[Nhoj]

Senate Race By Senate District:

So Rs won 15 under that right? Of course Ds currently hold SD10 and Rs held unto vukmirs district and maybe a few others that baldwin won this year.

[Gass3268]

Senate Race By Senate District:
Snip

So Rs won 15 under that right? Of course Ds currently hold SD10 and Rs held unto vukmirs district and maybe a few others that baldwin won this year.

Evers won 12 Senate Districts. This includes 1 represented by Republicans (17-Southwest), but does not include 3 represented by Democrats (10-Twin Cities Area, 25-Lake Superior Shoreline, 30-Green Bay).

Baldwin won 18 Senate Districts. This includes 5 represented by Republicans (5-Waukesha East, 17-Southwest, 18-Oshkosh, 19-Appleton, 24-Stevens Point), but does not include 1 represented by Democrats (10-Twin Cities Area).

It's also pretty clear that Democrats really had no chance of holding 1-Door County.

[Wiz in Wis]

Governor's Race By Assembly District




*** mod note: fixed image size

Pitiful performance. Dems need to broaden their appeal if they want to have any relevance on the legislative level. 

Democrats won 53% of the legislative vote, and Republicans still won 66% of the seats thanks to the gerrymander.

This state is currupt as hell.

A fair map would involve baconmandering Madison and Milawaukee. It's better to just reach out to the non-urban areas.

Honest question... do you live in Rural Wisconsin? Because, as a resident of Rural Wisconsin, I'd love to hear your critique of my local candidate who hustled his ass off, ran as a moderate, and raised a ton of cash... please, do share your wisdom.

[Antonio the Sixth]

WHY DO PEOPLE KEEP ENGAGING WITH AN OBVIOUS TROLL

[Wiz in Wis]

WHY DO PEOPLE KEEP ENGAGING WITH AN OBVIOUS TROLL

In my case it's boredom but ymmv

[Gass3268]

Going to start posting some election information by city, staring with the ten largest as of 2017 census estimates. I did not include turnout for the Senate race as it's not a even comparison (2012 being a Presidential year, 2018 being a Midterm).

1. Milwaukee (Milwaukee, Ozaukee & Waukesha - 595,351 - City)
Senate - 81.90%-17.90% - Margin: 64.00% - Swing: 7.23%
Governor - 78.18%-19.74% - Margin: 58.43 - Swing: 4.4% - Turnout: +5.45%

2. Madison (Dane - 255,214 - City)
Senate - 84.97%-14.87% - Margin: 70.11% - Swing: 15.36%
Governor - 82.54%-15.49% - Margin: 67.05% - Swing: 9.37% - Turnout: +17.89%

3. Green Bay (Brown - 105,116 - City)
Senate - 59.42%-40.39% - Margin: 19.02% - Swing: 5.39%
Governor - 52.89%-44.25% - Margin: 8.64% - Swing: 11.43% - Turnout: +15.31%

4. Kenosha (Kenosha - 99,877 - City)
Senate - 65.41%-34.42% - Margin: 30.99% - Swing: 3.00%
Governor - 59.87%-36.88% - Margin: 22.99% - Swing: 6.35% - Turnout: +22.00%

5. Racine (Racine - 77,542 - City)
Senate - 71.51%-28.31% - Margin: 43.20% - Swing: 0.91%
Governor - 65.80%-31.15% - Margin: 34.65% - Swing: 3.66% - Turnout: +8.54%

6. Appleton (Calumet, Outagamie & Winnebago - 74,653 - City)
Senate - 58.34%-41.65% - Margin: 16.70% - Swing: 11.07%
Governor - 57.25%-42.37% - Margin: 14.88% - Swing: 20.74% - Turnout: +9.63%

7. Waukesha (Waukesha - 72,489 - City)
Senate - 47.52%-52.31% - Margin: -4.80% - Swing: 13.55%
Governor - 41.56%-56.41% - Margin: -14.85% - Swing: 17.57% - Turnout: +12.73%

8. Eau Claire (Chippewa & Eau Claire - 68,587 - City)
Senate - 65.90%-33.94% - Margin: 31.96% - Swing: 14.16%
Governor - 60.33%-37.01% - Margin: 23.32% - Swing: 12.97% - Turnout: +18.18%

9. Oshkosh (Winnebago - 66,665 - City)
Senate - 60.10%-39.74% - Margin: 20.36% - Swing: 7.74%
Governor - 54.73%-42.79% - Margin: 11.94% - Swing: 10.47% - Turnout: +9.96%

10. Janesville (Rock - 64,359 - City)
Senate - 64.91%-34.98% - Margin: 29.93% - Swing: 6.40%
Governor - 61.01%-36.36% - Margin: 24.65% - Swing: 6.89% - Turnout: +15.97%

[Kevinstat]

I haven't been following closely.  Can someone tell me if the Republican attempts to limit the new Democratic Governor's power in Wisconsin and Michigan include limiting the Governor's veto power over redistricting plans?  If not (if it would take a 2/3 vote in each House to override a veto of a redistricting plan), then as bad as all this is, the Democrats would just have to keep at 1/3 + 1 of one house of the Legislature in 2020, get a neutral map in 2020, win in 2022 and undo this mess.

If, however, the WIGOP and/or MIGOP are trying to limit the Governor's power to veto redistricting plans (or make it so it only takes a simple majority to override the veto, then [that would [have been] bad].

[Scottholes 2.0]

Going to start posting some election information by city, staring with the ten largest as of 2017 census estimates. I did not include turnout for the Senate race as it's not a even comparison (2012 being a Presidential year, 2018 being a Midterm).

1. Milwaukee (Milwaukee, Ozaukee & Waukesha - 595,351 - City)
Senate - 81.90%-17.90% - Margin: 64.00% - Swing: 7.23%
Governor - 78.18%-19.74% - Margin: 58.43 - Swing: 4.4% - Turnout: +5.45%

2. Madison (Dane - 255,214 - City)
Senate - 84.97%-14.87% - Margin: 70.11% - Swing: 15.36%
Governor - 82.54%-15.49% - Margin: 67.05% - Swing: 9.37% - Turnout: +17.89%

3. Green Bay (Brown - 105,116 - City)
Senate - 59.42%-40.39% - Margin: 19.02% - Swing: 5.39%
Governor - 52.89%-44.25% - Margin: 8.64% - Swing: 11.43% - Turnout: +15.31%

4. Kenosha (Kenosha - 99,877 - City)
Senate - 65.41%-34.42% - Margin: 30.99% - Swing: 3.00%
Governor - 59.87%-36.88% - Margin: 22.99% - Swing: 6.35% - Turnout: +22.00%

5. Racine (Racine - 77,542 - City)
Senate - 71.51%-28.31% - Margin: 43.20% - Swing: 0.91%
Governor - 65.80%-31.15% - Margin: 34.65% - Swing: 3.66% - Turnout: +8.54%

6. Appleton (Calumet, Outagamie & Winnebago - 74,653 - City)
Senate - 58.34%-41.65% - Margin: 16.70% - Swing: 11.07%
Governor - 57.25%-42.37% - Margin: 14.88% - Swing: 20.74% - Turnout: +9.63%

7. Waukesha (Waukesha - 72,489 - City)
Senate - 47.52%-52.31% - Margin: -4.80% - Swing: 13.55%
Governor - 41.56%-56.41% - Margin: -14.85% - Swing: 17.57% - Turnout: +12.73%

8. Eau Claire (Chippewa & Eau Claire - 68,587 - City)
Senate - 65.90%-33.94% - Margin: 31.96% - Swing: 14.16%
Governor - 60.33%-37.01% - Margin: 23.32% - Swing: 12.97% - Turnout: +18.18%

9. Oshkosh (Winnebago - 66,665 - City)
Senate - 60.10%-39.74% - Margin: 20.36% - Swing: 7.74%
Governor - 54.73%-42.79% - Margin: 11.94% - Swing: 10.47% - Turnout: +9.96%

10. Janesville (Rock - 64,359 - City)
Senate - 64.91%-34.98% - Margin: 29.93% - Swing: 6.40%
Governor - 61.01%-36.36% - Margin: 24.65% - Swing: 6.89% - Turnout: 15.97%

So, Evers cracked 40 percent in the city of Waukesha? Wow!

Also, predominately white Madison being bluer than very ethnically diverse Milwaukee is proof that racial demographics don't mean everything when it comes to voting patterns.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[Gass3268]

I haven't been following closely.  Can someone tell me if the Republican attempts to limit the new Democratic Governor's power in Wisconsin and Michigan include limiting the Governor's veto power over redistricting plans?  If not (if it would take a 2/3 vote in each House to override a veto of a redistricting plan), then as bad as all this is, the Democrats would just have to keep at 1/3 + 1 of one house of the Legislature in 2020, get a neutral map in 2020, win in 2022 and undo this mess.

If, however, the WIGOP and/or MIGOP are trying to limit the Governor's power to veto redistricting plans (or make it so it only takes a simple majority to override the veto, then it might be time to start a GoFundMe page to put hits on Republican Legislators [/sarcasm].

Michigan is gonna have a commission. There is a theory floating around that the legislature would be able to pass the maps not as a bill, which would need a signature, but as a something else which would not. We won't know if it will happen until 2021 or if they try to pass a constitutional amendment.

[Gass3268]

Here are the next 10 cities/villages:

11. West Allis (Milwaukee - 59,934 - City)
Senate - 57.49%-42.21% - Margin: 15.27% - Swing: 12.15%
Governor - 51.06%-46.29% - Margin: 4.77% - Swing: 14.03% - Turnout: +6.43%

12. La Crosse (La Crosse - 51,834 - City)
Senate - 71.31%-28.69% - Margin: 42.61% - Swing - 15.69%
Governor - 65.70%-31.29% - Margin: 34.41% - Swing - 11.69% - Turnout +23.40%

13. Sheboygan (Sheboygan - 48,329 - City)
Senate - 58.38%-41.45% - Margin: 16.93% - Swing: 4.26%
Governor - 51.68%-46.04% - Margin: 5.64% - Swing: 9.07% - Turnout: +8.32%

14. Wauwatosa (Milwaukee - 48,277 - City)
Senate - 62.64%-37.15% - Margin: 25.48% - Swing: 25.67%
Governor - 57.27%-41.10% - Margin: 16.17% - Swing: 20.84% - Turnout: +10.45%

15. Fond du Lac (Fond du Lac - 42,809 - City)
Senate - 50.39%-49.53% - Margin: 0.86% - Swing: 2.54%
Governor - 44.15%-53.88% - Margin: -9.73% - Swing: 5.56% - Turnout: +6.94%

16. New Berlin (Waukesha - 39,740 - City)
Senate - 40.70%-59.16% - Margin: -18.46% - Swing: 11.92%
Governor - 34.57%-64.15% - Margin: -29.58% - Swing: 11.83% - Turnout: +7.60%

17. Wausau (Marathon - 38,739 - City)
Senate - 57.30%-42.56% - Margin: 14.74% - Swing: 4.54%
Governor - 49.68%-47.70% - Margin: 1.98% - Swing: 5.39% - Turnout: +11.24%

18. Brookfield (Waukesha - 38,739 - City)
Senate - 40.32%-59.59% - Margin: -19.27% - Swing: 18.80%
Governor - 35.54%-63.32% - Margin: 27.79% - Swing: 17.77% - Turnout: +8.02%

19. Menomonee Falls (Waukesha - 37,443 - Village)
Senate - 42.41%-57.45% - Margin: -15.04% - Swing: 14.70%
Governor - 35.44%-63.22% - Margin: -27.77% - Swing: 13.18% - Turnout: +10.52%

20. Greenfield (Milwaukee - 36,827 - City)
Senate - 53.73%-46.11% - Margin: 7.62% - Swing - 10.67%
Governor - 46.96%-51.08% - Margin: -4.11% - Swing: 10.94% - Turnout: +11.34%

[Scottholes 2.0]

Here are the next 10 cities/villages:

11. West Allis (Milwaukee - 59,934 - City)
Senate - 57.49%-42.21% - Margin: 15.27% - Swing: 12.15%
Governor - 51.06%-46.29% - Margin: 4.77% - Swing - 14.03% - Turnout: +6.43%

12. La Crosse (La Crosse - 51,834 - City)
Senate - 71.31%-28.69% - Margin: 42.61% - Swing - 15.69%
Governor - 65.70%-31.29% - Margin: 34.41% - Swing - 11.69% - Turnout +23.40%

13. Sheboygan (Sheboygan - 48,329 - City)
Senate - 58.38%-41.45% - Margin: 16.93% - Swing: 4.26%
Governor - 51.68%-46.04% - Margin: 5.64% - Swing: 9.07% - Turnout: +8.32%

14. Wauwatosa (Milwaukee - 48,277 - City)
Senate - 62.64%-37.15% - Margin: 25.48% - Swing: 25.67%
Governor - 57.27%-41.10% - Margin: 16.17% - Swing: 20.84% - Turnout: +10.45%

15. Fond du Lac (Fond du Lac - 42,809 - City)
Senate - 50.39%-49.53% - Margin: 0.86% - Swing: 2.54%
Governor - 44.15%-53.88% - Margin: -9.73% - Swing: 5.56% - Turnout: +6.94%

16. New Berlin (Waukesha - 39,740 - City)
Senate - 40.70%-59.16% - Margin: -18.46% - Swing: 11.92%
Governor - 34.57%-64.15% - Margin: -29.58% - Swing: 11.83% - Turnout: +7.60%

17. Wausau (Marathon - 38,739 - City)
Senate - 57.30%-42.56% - Margin: 14.74% - Swing: 4.54%
Governor - 49.68%-47.70% - Margin: 1.98% - Swing: 5.39% - Turnout: +11.24%

18. Brookfield (Waukesha - 38,739 - City)
Senate - 40.32%-59.59% - Margin: -19.27% - Swing: 18.80%
Governor - 35.54%-63.32% - Margin: 27.79% - Swing: 17.77% - Turnout: +8.02%

19. Menomonee Falls (Waukesha - 37,443 - Village)
Senate - 42.41%-57.45% - Margin: -15.04% - Swing: 14.70%
Governor - 35.44%-63.22% - Margin: -27.77% - Swing: 13.18% - Turnout: +10.52%

20. Greenfield (Milwaukee - 36,827 - City)
Senate - 53.73%-46.11% - Margin: 7.62% - Swing - 10.67%
Governor - 46.96%-51.08% - Margin: -4.11% - Swing: 10.94% - Turnout: +11.34%

I grew up in Wauwatosa, and it used to be pretty Republican. I know it voted for Bush and Obama twice, but didn't it also vote for Walker three times? Looks like Tosa is starting to vote like the North Shore suburbs.