Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Wiz in Wis]

Everyone expect Evers, Soglin, Mitchell, and Vinehout needs to drop out so the Democrats can unite behind one candidate, otherwise they'll have a brutal primary that will help Walker get a third term.

Soglin is a disaster... everyone on this board complaining that Mahlon Mitchell is a bad candidate and not mentioning the total destruction Soglin would create is being obtuse. Mitchell is young, a firefighter,  and has been able to raise a ton of money and get a crap-load of union support. The ire for him on this board is nonsense.

[Wiz in Wis]

Everyone expect Evers, Soglin, Mitchell, and Vinehout needs to drop out so the Democrats can unite behind one candidate, otherwise they'll have a brutal primary that will help Walker get a third term.

Soglin is a disaster... everyone on this board complaining that Mahlon Mitchell is a bad candidate and not mentioning the total destruction Soglin would create is being obtuse. Mitchell is young, a firefighter,  and has been able to raise a ton of money and get a crap-load of union support. The ire for him on this board is nonsense.

Soglin is really not a disaster, he's been a fine Mayor of Madison, however he has shown the lack of drive necessary to run a campaign against Scott Walker.

As a recent resident of Madison, I disagree with your prognosis. His wins here may look impressive, but he's run against total nobodies the last two times. His approval rating in town has to be pretty tepid. He spends most of his time whining that there are homeless people loitering and that there aren't enough retailers, as opposed to restaurants/bars, on State Street. He's a cranky old man whose golden age ended in the late 90s. He'd tank in the general, and doesn't deserve the chance to take the rest of the Dem field down with him.

[Wiz in Wis]

Dana Wach's drops out of Governor's race, endorses Evers.

http://www.nbc15.com/content/news/Rep-Dana-Wachs-drops-out-of-governors-race-486264061.html

[Wiz in Wis]

Two Madison Assembly members are calling on Matt Flynn to drop out of the gubernatorial race, citing his previous work on behalf of the Archdiocese of Milwaukee against survivors of sexual assault from clergy.

Hard to see Flynn as anything but DOA against Walker.

https://host.madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/election-matters/lawmakers-call-for-matt-flynn-to-exit-wisconsin-governor-s/article_a5d44532-8b87-57c2-9abe-94da286a542f.html#tracking-source=home-top-story

[Wiz in Wis]

New MU Poll: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2018/07/18/results-expected-wednesday-marquette-poll/793675002/

Evers at 31%, next is Mitchell and Vinehout tied with 6%, Evers pretty much has this thing in the bag, nobody knows or cares who Mitchell is.

Barnes also seems likely to have the LG race wrapped up too.

[Wiz in Wis]

Walker can withstand the Democratic wave, since Milwaukee and Madison don't have many Latinos as other states might have. That's a reason why, Trump did so well in MI, PA and WI. But more WWC in WI.

100x yep. 2018 DNC (and supporting arms) has no clue how to win states outside the coastal bubbles.

Uh.... Wisconsin Democrats have won two State Senate special elections, and won the recent Supreme Court race in a walk... you guys are clueless.

[Wiz in Wis]

Walker trailing Evers by 13 in the NBC/WSJ poll.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/scott-walker-other-gop-candidates-key-midwest-states-trail-democratic-n895001

[Wiz in Wis]

I don't expect many to agree with me, but I think Roys is kind of hot.

Correct, though sadly she is no longer a brunette.

[Wiz in Wis]

It seems Evers is holding true and focusing his campaign outside of the big cities. Not one Evers lawn sign in either Madison or MKE where I've passed through. I've seen a lot of Roys and Vinehout signs in the cities  however.

There's Evers signs on the west side of Madison. Quite a few in Verona, as well as McCabe.

I actually haven't seen a single Evers sign. I drive around the East Side as well as Monona and Cottage Grove frequently. I've only seen McCabe, Vinehout, Mitchell, and Roys. I also saw a few Baldwin and McCabe signs in rural Dane County.

To be fair, yard signs are a pretty useless indicator. If Sauk County were a representative indicator, Vinehout would be winning close to 80% of the vote.

[Wiz in Wis]

AP calls Dem nomination for Evers. Barnes for LG as well.

[Wiz in Wis]

The Republican primary votes in the WOW counties greatly outnumber the Dem primary votes. I thought it would have been closer but I guess the WOW counties are pretty Republican even nowadays.

You know there is a Senate GOP primary right? and one of the candidates is from Waukesha?

[Wiz in Wis]

Sauk County, where I live, very narrowly voted for Trump in 2016.

Right now the Dems are outpacing the GOP 6,300 votes to 3,800 votes here. Mandela Barnes has more votes than Scott Walker, and Barnes is only winning his primary with 67% of the vote.

[Wiz in Wis]

Over 6,000 people voted for Nehlen in WI-01. That's over 6,000 too many--frightening.

Wisconsin is an open primary state. What if some of those 6,000 people were Democrats who wanted to get an easy to beat opponent in the general?

I sincerely doubt that.

Considering the high turnout on the Dem side in that race, I think that is very very unlikely.

[Wiz in Wis]

First post primary poll has Evers with a 5 point lead over Walker, 49 - 44.

https://www.wpr.org/new-poll-shows-democrat-tony-evers-five-points-ahead-walker-general-election

[Wiz in Wis]

Anyone else notice that Marquette's LV screen markedly helped Vukmir and kinda helped Evers? Who are these Vukmir/Evers voters who are so charged up to vote?

[Wiz in Wis]

OK, serious autopsy time: How can Dems recover their lost appeal in the Midwest, specifically Wisconsin? Because, the current Nancy Pelosi/DWS/Country Club strategy ain't working...and the results are devastating with Wisconsin workers being subjected to No-Right-to-Bargain.

2016 was a Realignment Election and Democrats still have failed to come to terms with that. Basically from 2016 onwards the upper Midwest will be available for R's the same way VA, NC, GA will be available for D's.

A 0.5 point win is not a "realignment"

Romney got more votes in Wisconsin... Dubya got nearly 100k more than Trump. I mean... guys, Hillary didn't campaign here and was a terrible candidate. Don't get too high on your own supply.

[Wiz in Wis]

Seems reasonable. Marquette looking a tad outlierish (though not exactly out of the ballpark).

[Wiz in Wis]

Funny how Marquette is the Gold Standard™ until it shows numbers inconvenient to the red avatars here. Evers below 50 in Suffolk, though.

Wait till you find out that Walker is below Evers!

[Wiz in Wis]

Funny how Marquette is the Gold Standard™ until it shows numbers inconvenient to the red avatars here. Evers below 50 in Suffolk, though.

Wait till you find out that Walker is below Evers!

Oh, I know...I saw the thread. I wonder if the Foxconn news will be enough to change the game in the state. All I know is, watch how undecideds will break in this state as the election looms.

I really don't know why you'd think that undecideds will break for the incumbent in this election year. In midterms, most undecideds either vote for the challenger or don't vote period.

[Wiz in Wis]

After working the last 8 years on drastically pushing multi billion dollar road expansion and neglecting local roads, Walker is now trying to play the part of the fiscal conservative and say he is against this and always has been and covert groups are pushing expansion. What a tool.

My favorite Scott Walker roads story is how he held a ribbon cutting ceremony for the completion of work on the Zoo Interchange... which is not yet complete.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2018/08/28/scott-walker-declares-zoo-interchange-done-even-work-remains/1121749002/

[Wiz in Wis]

Couple of not so great Walker stories in the news lately:

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/09/09/scott-walkers-ex-dot-secretary-governor-not-truthful-roads/1227104002/

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/scott-walker-flew-percent-more-times-last-year-than-scrutinized/article_2c350f7f-363b-5604-86db-ef44d40ace9c.html

Seems as if planes, trains, and automobiles might be Walker's Achilles Heel.

[Wiz in Wis]

EVERS +5!!!!

49-44!

[Wiz in Wis]

Wow... and they have Schimel up 7 in the AG race... WALKER HAS TO HATE THAT!

[Wiz in Wis]

Im guessing they fixed their screen

He said at the beginning that the screen is simply those who say they are certain to vote.  I don't know if this is a change from previous months.

Previous poll was a screen of 2014/2016 voters, which is why it yielded such an odd result. You can go back to the thread, I believe it was talked about a lot.

I said that and I was wrong, but it’s still a super tight screen. You have to be 100% certain you are going vote in November. Even being 95% sure won’t cut it.

Ah,thats it. All right, thanks! I wonder if it was changed, or Democrats are now saying 100%?

Probably the same filter, but we're seeing more Dem energy

[Wiz in Wis]

If Walker loses this year and it’s not even particularly close, WI moves to Lean D for 2020. I guess it shouldn’t be too surprising either since Democrats only lost the state because of Clinton in the first place.

Obviously it depends on what the situation is in 2020, and who the dems nominate, but yeah, I can't see this state moving further right if Evers wins, considering that he'll almost certainly relax the voter ID administrative laws. And if the Dems were to, by some miracle, win back the Assembly and Senate, then 'Katy, bar the door' - the post 2010 election laws will be gone by February.