Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

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With Tom Barrett out I am completely fine keeping WI-Gov as Lean R now.

The guy who already lost to Walker twice would have made this race Lean R. It's definitely a Toss-Up, at this point.

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Is this a realistic hypothetical Election map, Wisconsinites? A Generic Dems wins by 2%

No. Northern Central Wisconsin should be redder, and central Wisconsin could be bluer. Racine is a big question mark, and places like Brown could end up surprising us.

How about this?

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https://twitter.com/Tony4WI/status/1006936215663374336

Evers briefly unveiled this about 5 days ago to not much fanfare. Thoughts anyone?

FF!!!!

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Walker is already trying to redefine Tony Evers by putting out an ad accusing him of not revoking a teacher's license to viewing pornography. I REALLY hope voters do not fall for this lie!

Hopefully we see results like this in November:

Can any Wisconsin poster explain why Republicans turned out so strongly in Forest? The turnout map is eerily similar to the 2012 election map, and while more Republicans turned out in a few other Obama/Trump counties, it seems like they were pretty close, whereas Forest was a blowout. It might not mean anything for November, but it's just interesting in how it stands out compared to the rest of the map. (I realize that Forest swung heavily to Trump in 2016, but it looks like it was even more lopsided on Tuesday.)

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Money isn't everything, as President Hillary Clinton will tell you. And yeah, Senator Thompson, President Romney, and Senator-elect Vukmir can attest to Wisconsin being a Republican state since 2010. Toss-Up makes the most sense for this race as of right now, but of course people's personal feelings about Walker are going to impact their ratings.

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Great credible sources on this thread. Anyway, please enlighten me, o denizens of Atlas, why A TIE means that this race is Safe R or D.

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An anecdotal observation, which is worth what such usually are: I spent some time in Wisconsin on my vacation last month, and from talking to various people there about politics, my impression is that Scott Walker has got to be one of the most polarizing politicians there is.  Everyone I talked to either absolutely loved him and thought he was the best governor in state history, or absolutely hated him and thought he was destroying the state.

I'm not surprised by that at all, considering most people outside of Wisconsin also either love him or hate him.

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A tie after all the ordeals Walker had faced in his two terms? He's cruising to the end, as the ad campaigns will sink Evers. Likely R

lol, you can stop with the troll job now.

After all the complacent Dems in this forum assuming that a silly Supreme Court race means anything in the grand scheme of things? Perhaps, they are the trolls, not me. Fact of the matter is, Dems in this state committed seppuku by only caring about the ghettoes of Milwaukee and students in Madison.

Yeah, that's why Dems have been improving in the rural and small town areas for the state supreme court and special elections, right?

Don't feed the concern troll. He'd argue that his wet dream Scotty is safe even if he were down by 10 in every poll. It's been kinda funny seeing LimoLiberal post 4 or 5 times in the other Wisconsin thread, crying for attention, while no one is responding to him. Let's keep it that way, since LimoLiberal and hofoid are essentially the same person.

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Watching Limo and Hofoid cream each other over this poll is golden.

"each other" lol

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Evers will win...the state leg will flip...and progressive policies will be ushered in. Get ready for voting rights, medicaid expansion, etc...!

All of my family (all of whom are Independents) who voted for Walker three times is supporting Evers solely due to Walker's refusal to distance himself from Trump, and they live in the rural areas of the state. I just hope to God other Independents follow suit in this once progressive state!

Wisconsin just can't afford all the extra spending to be brought in by Super Nintendo Evers. Vote Scott Walker in November. If he didn't restrict your ability to vote, that is.

What does this mean?

It's a pun on Superintendent, I believe.

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Walker is flopping and flailing a lot more this time around, which suggests things aren't going too well for him.

Based on how he publicizes polls showing him behind, I don't think he's making any secret of the fact that he's worried. I suppose he could be in better shape than polls are suggesting, but if he thought so, why would he be sounding alarms so much?

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How do we know that the MU numbers will be favorable to Republicans? Did they drop a "hint" or something? And yeah, voting for Baldwin and Walker doesn't make sense, but that doesn't mean that a decent percentage of voters won't do it. Probably not 10-15% or anything like that, but I could see 6-7% doing so, which could be enough for Walker to survive if Baldwin wins by less than expected.

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I'll say Baldwin +6 and Walker +1, but obviously there will be a meltdown whatever the result is.

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Like I said, it's going to have Walker leading. Mark my words!

Alright, Wisconsinite, you've got some explaining to do.

Anyway, inb4 people who hate Walker now think Marquette is the gold standard again, and people who love Walker think it's biased toward the Democrats.

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https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1042130637359120384

White Non-College Educated Men: Walker +12
White Non-College Educated Women: Evers +2
White College Educated Men: Evers +4
White College Educated Women: Evers +26
Nonwhite or Hispanic: Evers +12

Don't show RINO Tom those numbers.

"Hey RINO Tom, sorry if this ruins what might be a great Cubs game for you, but I have some news that might be... difficult to tell you. You see, Scott Walker is losing college educated white voters in Wisconsin, providing a data point which suggests that college educated voters might trend Democratic in 2018. I know that this is devastating for you, but know that we're all here to support you during this difficult time."

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Walker's recent tweet about the Marquette poll:

https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1979/44801415072_3c481a691f_o.png

Booo Walker, Marquette had Feingold+1 in their last poll. For all Walker knows, Feingold really was up +6 in September. The race just changed in the end for well-known reasons. So Walker's tweet is misleading. No surprise there.

That seems to be the one argument that people claiming that Walker is favored have left: That the polls were wrong in 2016. Of course, it's not a good argument, and often those who make it end up doing worse than the polls suggest, not better. However, I think it's pretty clear to anyone following this race how much trouble Walker is in, and I think that even he knows that he's losing right now.

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Game over. Walker’s got this one in the bag. The Electric Company vote is gonna come through bigly for Walker.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qbF6GcES3-4&feature=youtu.be

Best ad of the decade.

Good Lord, that might not be the most cringeworthy ad this cycle, but it's gotta be up there.

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I doubt the "Kavanaugh bump" is going to be a thing in a swing state. Maybe if Wisconsin actually were as red as North Dakota, but since voters nationwide disapprove of Kavanaugh, I imagine the numbers aren't too different in Wisconsin.

I'll also guess Evers +3, as well as Baldwin +10.

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I doubt the "Kavanaugh bump" is going to be a thing in a swing state. Maybe if Wisconsin actually were as red as North Dakota, but since voters nationwide disapprove of Kavanaugh, I imagine the numbers aren't too different in Wisconsin.

I'll also guess Evers +3, as well as Baldwin +10.

Still indicates a massive tightening (WOW voters coming home to their natural place).

Yeah, and maybe things will massively tighten again by November, meaning that Walker only loses by 2 and Baldwin only wins by 9. I'm sure Wisconsin Democrats will be devastated by that result.

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Evers +7 (51-44) and Baldwin +12 (53-41).

What's your source for this? I can't find that anywhere.

Or is it a prediction?

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Apparently the LV sample of the poll is 47% Republican, 44% Democratic, and 8% Independent.

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It has Walker up 1, which is believable, but the sample does seem Republican-friendly.

Walker (R) - 47%
Evers (D) - 46%

Baldwin is up 10, however...

Baldwin (D) - 53%
Vukmir (R) - 43%

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So... to sum, in the past month

Walker +6
Vukmir +1
Schimel - 3

Uh.... what?

Must've been that genius ad.

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Apparently, Evers's lead among Independents is now +6 whereas it was +20 in September (which was always a little hard to believe.) +6 is still a good place for him to be, especially since Independents are more likely to be undecided.

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This is what happens when National Dems decide that Atlanta CEO's are the new base of the party.

You're right. They're much better off listening to a concern troll on US Election Atlas dot org.